Churchill Announces Trio Of Additional Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools

Churchill Downs will host a trio of additional Future Wager pools in advance of the rescheduled 146th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (Grade I) on Saturday, Sept. 5. Also, there will be one additional Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool.

· KDFW Pool 5: Friday, June 26 through Sunday, June 28

· KDFW Pool 6: Friday, July 17 through Sunday, July 19

· KOFW Pool 2: Friday, July 17 through Sunday, July 19

· KDFW Pool 7: Friday, Aug. 7 through Sunday, Aug. 9

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager features $2 Win and Exacta wagering, and provides fans of Thoroughbred racing with opportunities to place bets on possible entrants in the Kentucky Derby at odds that could be far greater than those available on the day of the race.

The Pool 5 field will be announced Wednesday morning.

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Sunday’s Belmont Card To Feature Mandatory Payout Of Empire 6 Jackpot Wager

Sunday's nine-race card at Belmont Park will feature a mandatory payout of the Empire 6, which boasts a jackpot of $154,928 heading into Friday's Belmont card.

Live coverage of all the races in the sequence are available with America's Day at the Races on FOX Sports and MSG+. Free Equibase-provided past performances are available for races that are part of the America's Day at the Races broadcast and can be accessed at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/tv-schedule.

Following Saturday's Belmont Stakes Day card, which offers six graded stakes, highlighted by the 152nd running of the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes, the action will continue at Belmont Park on Sunday.

The Empire 6 sequence will commence with Race 4 at 2:54 p.m. Eastern, a claiming race for 3-year-olds and up going one mile on the main track.

Race 5 will see a six-furlong inner turf sprint for 3-year-olds and up with an approximate post time of 3:29 p.m. In Race 6, a field of nine sophomore fillies will get their turn in a maiden claiming turf mile.

Sophomore fillies will look to sprint to success in Race 7 at 4:34 p.m., a six-furlong claiming race over Belmont's Big Sandy.

The sequence's penultimate race will be the Empire 6's lone stakes. A full field of 10 3-year-old fillies will compete over six furlongs on the inner turf in $80,000 Lady Shipman, with Race 8 going off at 5:05 p.m. Stoneway Farm's Cofactor will make both her seasonal and turf debut, entering off a six-month layoff for trainer Kelly Breen. Trainer Christophe Clement will saddle two fillies for the Lady Shipman in stakes-winner She's My Type and Notorious R B G.

A 1 1/16-mile grass route on the Widener turf featuring a full field of New York-bred maidens in the Race 9 finale at 5:36 p.m. will conclude the sequence.

The Empire 6 requires the bettor to select the first-place finisher of the final six races of the card. On non-mandatory payout days, if one unique ticket exists, then 100 percent of the net pool, plus the jackpot carryover if applicable, will be paid to the winner. If there is no unique wager selecting the first-place finisher in all six races, then 75 percent of the day's net pool will be distributed to those who selected the first-place finisher in the greatest number of races. The remainder will be added into the jackpot and carried to the next day's Empire 6.

For more information on the Empire 6, please visit http://www.nyrabets.com.

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: Hong Kong Announces Trio Of Wagering Enhancements

Last week, the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) revealed a flurry of enhancements to wagering for their 2020-21 season which begins in September.

The HKJC will be offering the forecast bet, known as an exacta in America, a reintroduction of a bet that has been absent, locally, for the best part of five decades.

The quinella (first two horses in any order) and quinella place (two of the first three horses in any order) are the most popular wagers in the jurisdiction which generated roughly $16 billion from its 88 race dates and roughly 20 imported simulcast cards from a season ago.

To ensure proper liquidity (sufficient pool size to attract large bets without monumental market shifts) for the exacta pool, the HKJC announced it will merge exacta bets into its trio pool (a trifecta box bet), using technology provided by Longitude, a NASDAQ-owned firm which has partnered with the HKJC since 2013. To understand how merging pools works, this five-minute video from Longitude helps explain the process, while this article published in May 2019 will help too.

An added benefit to those regular participants in the trio pool will be a reduced takeout rate, with the exacta/trio merged pool offering a takeout rate of 19 percent. Previously, the trio takeout rate was at 25 percent. The takeout drop of 5.5 nominal points represents a 22 percent decline from the previous rate, a boon for players, yielding higher payouts to winning players which will yield increased betting churn.

Even further, the HKJC will increase the rebate customers receive on its quinella and quinella place pools by 20 percent, going up from 10 to 12 percent. The rebate applies to all losing bets of HK$10,000 (about US$1,300) or more, placed either in person or through one of the HKJC wagering platforms, in either the win, place, quinella and quinella place pools. The win and place losing rebate remains at 10 percent.

BETTOR ENHANCEMENTS, BETTER SPORT

In this one release, the HKJC introduced a new bet type for their customers, facilitated this bet type with modern tote technology, reduced takeout on an existing bet type and increased rebates on two bet types for a segment of customers.

The South China Morning Post reported on the amendments:

“We believe these changes will provide more value and options for different segments of our racing fans, meanwhile reinforcing deep pool liquidity which is one of the competitive advantages of Hong Kong racing as a global commingling hub,' Jockey Club executive director of customer and international business development Richard Cheung Che-kit said. 'More gaming demand will also be channeled back for good causes.'

“The latter point refers to one of the Jockey Club's charters, which is to serve the community, and as a result it is one of the biggest charity donors in the world.

“After paying its tax obligations, 90 per cent of the club's annual operating surplus is donated to charity, with HK$4.3 billion [US$550 million] going to 294 projects in 2018-19.”

Betting is a truly massive business in Hong Kong, with total handle being nearly 50 percent higher than all of American racing's handle last year despite offering wagering on about 97 percent fewer races.

There is plenty of competition in the marketplace which makes this overall performance all the more impressive.

Macau, an hour's ferry ride from Hong Kong, and now connected to Hong Kong via a bridge and tunnel complex, puts Las Vegas to shame from a pure betting consideration (in 2017, Macau gaming revenues were five times that of Vegas casinos).

The HKJC also runs soccer (football) betting, which started in the 2003-04 season with total handle of HK$16 billion and has grown to HK$114 billion by the end of the 2018-19 campaign. Unregulated online operators (the so-called illegal markets) provide even sterner competition for racing, soccer and all other sports, with massive rebates, credit betting and low overhead.

The battle is relentless, and it drives HKJC innovation.

But racing wagering's success in Hong Kong was not always the case. In 2016 at the Jockey Club Round Table Conference in Saratoga Springs, the HKJC's Chief Executive Officer Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges reviewed the challenges Hong Kong faced from external forces and what was needed to regain racing's competitiveness.

“…[We] still found ourselves in a difficult situation from the business side because our pricing, we think, was wrong. We saw a significant dip in our turnover after the Asian financial crisis. We had another issue with SARS. So, if you look at the business results, you could argue why put all this effort in to the [handle] if [it was] reducing?

“What we found…was that we had significant competition from Macau and the illegal market, and especially the illegal market was what concerns us, because they were offering rebates to attract the top players to play with them. We could convince the government to change the turnover tax to a gross margin tax, and we introduced a rebate of 10% of bets on standard bets over an amount of 1,200 U.S. dollars. This immediately showed the price elasticity, that we could turn around the decline we had in racing, and we in a way were able to capture a significant first part of the illegal market.”

The HKJC saw nominal total handle fall from HK$92.3 billion to HK$60.0 billion over the ten seasons ending in 2005-06, a raw decline of 35 percent.

Over the next 13 seasons, annual handle rose to a peak of HK$125 billion, a nominal increase of 108 percent from its lowest point. The total number of race days for wagering to accumulate such handle did increase, but at its peak, only by about 25 percent.

NO EXCUSES

When Americans are presented with the Hong Kong model as one to follow, simple excuses fly with ease.

“It's a monopoly, they have total control…The betting culture is different…There's no comparison.”

While the HKJC exercises extreme controls on many aspects of the business, in particular horse ownership, the sustainability of racing through competitive prize money has been well-assured because of the relentless improvement of the wagering product. Ensuring this attractiveness is a host of free information. Millennial horseplayer John Camardo outlined the attractiveness of wagering on Hong Kong because of the free data available in his January letter.

Workout videos, extraordinary veterinary records, free past performances and detailed sectional times, among other information, is all easily obtained via the HKJC website.

Just because something is going well now does not mean one can ignore evolution. If anything, it provides even more incentive.

In one fell swoop, the HKJC addressed three major issues in ways almost exactly opposite to the behavior of American operators over the previous 20 years – they increased customer options, enabled by modern technology and improved pricing for customers. With its global commingling of tote pools in place, Hong Kong is attracting an increasing amount of wagering from America.

It's simple to see why.

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Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes

In the scheme of things, the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes being run in June doesn't seem that out of the normal. However, in the year of the pandemic the fact the race comes before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will be run at the distance of one mile and one-eighth really makes a point things are out of whack this year. Just the same, a strong field of 10 lines up for the race which earns the top four finishers significant points on the Road to the Derby.

Tiz the Law leads the field in career earnings ($945,300) and accomplishments, having won four of five career races including the Grade 1 Florida Derby easily by four and one-quarter lengths when last seen. Sole Volante also has won four races, including the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and a strong win 10 days ago which was the ticket to ship from Florida to New York for this race.

Another horse proven in the top races for three-year-olds early this year is Modernist, winner of one of the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. However, he had no excuse when third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Likewise, Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at the distance of this year's Belmont, but hasn't been seen in the five and one-half months since then. Fore Left shipped half-way across the world for his three year old debut and came away with a strong win on the lead throughout in the Group 3 United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February.

Dr Post punched his ticket into the race with a victory in the Unbridled Stakes in late April. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who also saddles Farmington Road, the runner-up in the Oaklawn Stakes in April before a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May. Tap It to Win won impressively at Belmont just 16 days ago and appears to have a lot of talent.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently became the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, saddles a pair. One of those is Pneumatic, who contested the pace for most of the race before tiring a bit and ending up third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. The other is Jungle Runner, who won the one turn Clever Trevor Stakes in November but who has been beaten a total of sixty-seven lengths in four starts since then.

Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority.

That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month which flattered the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a three year old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.

There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 Figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any thee year old in North America even four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming.

When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a “double advantage” and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.

Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.

Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his three year old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win but three year olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).

Win Contenders:
Fore Left
Tiz the Law
Sole Volante

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 2:45 – 6 PM E.T.

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