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Stronach 5: Friday’s Wager Features Pair Of Turf Races, 12 Percent Takeout

The Stronach 5, which continues to provide a strong return on investment as well as an industry-low 12-percent takeout, features three races Friday from Gulfstream Park and two from Laurel Park.

The Stronach 5 begins at 3:49 p.m. and its last two legs will be on the turf from Gulfstream.

The Stronach 5 begins at Laurel with the eighth race, a starter optional claimer at six furlongs. Bull Shark, a lightly raced 4-year-old for trainer Cathal Lynch, has won three of six starts at Laurel. He gets Trevor McCarthy in the saddle. Phantom Ro, a former Florida Sire Stakes winner, enters off a 3 ½-length victory last time out.

Gulfstream's eighth race, the second leg, is an allowance optional claimer at six furlongs for 2-year-olds. Gary Barber's Carson City Kid is the 2-1 favorite while Arindel's homebred Tiger is the 5-2 second choice.

Laurel's ninth race serves as the third leg. A claiming event for fillies and mares at a mile, Lady Macho ships in from Finger Lakes after two second-place finishes under allowance conditions for trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer.

The Stronach 5 returns to Gulfstream for the final two legs, both turf races at 1 1/16 miles. The ninth race, an allowance optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up, is extremely competitive with 5-2 morning-line favorite Flowmotion breaking from the hedge and a winner of three of his last five for trainer Jane Cibelli and jockey Paco Lopez. Jolting Joe comes into the event of a second-place finish Nov. 7 in the Showing Up at Gulfstream Park. The colt won the New York Stallion Series Stakes at Saratoga in August.

The final leg of the sequence, Gulfstream's 10th race, is a claiming event with the 3-1 favorite Lets Play Hardball breaking from post 12 for trainer Mike Maker and jockey Luis Seaz. Spinning Kitten a last-out winner, is 10-1 in the morning line with jockey Joe Bravo. Time for Trouble, another Maker trainee, gets jockey Edgard Zayas.

Friday's races and sequence

Leg One – Laurel Park 8th Race: (8 entries, 6 furlongs) 3:49 ET, 12:49 PT
Leg Two –Gulfstream Park 8th Race: (6 entries, 6 furlong) 4 ET, 1 PT
Leg Three – Laurel Park 9th Race: (9 entries, 1 mile) 4:18 ET, 1:18 PT
Leg Four –Gulfstream Park 9th Race: (8 entries, 1 1/16 mile turf) 4:30 ET, 1:30 PT
Leg Five –Gulfstream West 10th Race: (12 entries, 1 1 1/6 mile turf) 4:27 ET, 1:27 PT

Fans can watch and wager on the action at 1/ST.COM/BET as well as stream all the action in English and Spanish at LaurelPark.com, SantaAnita.com, GulfstreamPark.com, and GoldenGateFields.com.

The Stronach 5 In the Money podcast, hosted by Jonathan Kinchen and Peter Thomas Fornatale, will be posted by 2 p.m. Thursday at InTheMoneyPodcast.com and will be available on iTunes and other major podcast distributors

The minimum wager on the multi-race, multi-track Stronach 5 is $1. If there are no tickets with five winners, the entire pool will be carried over to the next Friday.

If a change in racing surface is made after the wagering closes, each selection on any ticket will be considered a winning selection. If a betting interest is scratched, that selection will be substituted with the favorite in the win pool when wagering closes.

The Maryland Jockey Club serves as host of the Stronach 5.

The post Stronach 5: Friday’s Wager Features Pair Of Turf Races, 12 Percent Takeout appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Can An App Tell You A Horse’s Optimal Running Style? Study Suggests It’s Possible

A recent study has left researchers with data that could change the way racehorses are trained all around the world. According to Science Magazine, authors of a new study believe that their approach could be used to identify customized pacing plans that could optimize individual horses' chances of winning.

Dr. Amandine Aftalion, a mathematician at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences in Paris, has been analyzing the performance of world champion runners since 2013. Together with colleague Quentin Mercier she recently decided to try to apply her research methods to racehorses through the use of a new GPS tracking tool embedded in French racing saddles. These GPS trackers are typically used for fans, but ended up giving Aftalion and Mercier access to valuable speed and position data during races at the Chantilly racetracks north of Paris.

Aftalion and Mercier were able to use the GPS tracking technology to quantify the success of running styles from dozens of races at Chantilly to see if one racing style was more effective than others. Afterwards the two researchers were able to develop a model for different winning strategies for three specific race distances – 1,300 meters, 1,900 meters, and 2,100 meters. Aftalion and Mercier came to the conclusion that the most success came from a quick start followed by a more relaxed speed until the closing kick. Different cruising or closing speeds have different aerobic requirements of a horse, which could explain why one style is easier for one individual going a particular distance. In theory, this model could allow trainers to plug in certain information about their horses to get custom racing strategies that best fit that horse's aerobic capabilities.

At first glance, this seems like a great expansion of technology into a very traditional part of the sport. However, Dr. Peter Knight, a veterinarian at the University of Sydney, pointed out that trainers may be slow to adopt such a statistical model, as these models can not account for every horse's unique behavior. At the end of the day, horses are still living animals with a mind of their own that can be rather unpredictable sometimes. These results could also vary amongst different countries the same way typical racing styles do.

“We can't truly model performance,” Knight said to Science Magazine's Christa Lesté-Lasserre. “But perhaps the fundamental question is: Do we really want to? For people who love horse racing, the uncertainty provides the excitement, and the actual running of the horses provides the spectacle and the beauty.”

Equibase Analysis: Performer Appears Ready For Spotlight In Cigar Mile

This Saturday's Grade 1, $250,000 Cigar Mile Handicap drew a field of nine and will likely be run on a wet racetrack given the weather forecast near Aqueduct.

Among the nine, five are millionaires, led by Firenze Fire ($2.2 million), who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational Stakes in September. However, Firenze Fire has only won once on a wet track in five races and finished 11th and fourth in his last two stakes on the type of surface he's likely to be running over in the Cigar Mile.
Another millionaire is Snapper Sinclair ($1.3 million), who moves back to the main track after a pair of in-the-money finishes on turf including a second place in the Tourist Mile this past summer.
Mr. Buff is a horse who likes to lead early, resulting in 15 wins in 40 starts and $1.2 million in the bank. He has a liking for off tracks with three wins but nearly all of his 15 career wins have been racked up against New York breds only and he finished fifth in his two tries in graded stakes this year.
Mind Control ($1 million) put together three straight graded stakes wins from August 2019 through March of this year including the Grade 3 Tom Fool Stakes at Aqueduct but hasn't threatened to win in five races since then, two of those over sloppy tracks.
Similarly, True Timber ($1 million) has now gone winless in 13 races since September of 2018 although he did finish third in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in August over a sloppy track.
Majestic Dunhill won the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap in October and returns on five days rest following a seventh place effort in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight Handicap last Sunday.
Three-year-old King Guillermo won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in March before a second place finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May and makes his return to the races in the Cigar Mile.
Bon Raison has won 11 of 44 races but has never won a stakes race.
Last but certainly not least is Performer, who has won five races in a row going back to June, 2019, including the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes in November of 2019, before a win in October following 11 months off.

Performer lost the first start of his career in November, 2018 and has not lost a race since. Moving straight through his first two allowance conditions in the summer of 2019, Performer improved to earn 105 and 106 Equibase Speed Figures before a new career-best figure in November of last year when victorious in the Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct. Rested for 11 months, Performer returned as if he had never been away to win a classified allowance race in mid-October with a 109 figure effort. Joel Rosario has been aboard for every race since the debut, all wins, and rides again. With the ground saving rail and the ability to take up a stalking spot from the start behind likely early leader Mr. Buff, and with logical improvement off his comeback effort in October, Performer should be very tough to beat in this year's Cigar Mile Handicap.

King Guillermo proved his 49-1 upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby was no fluke when clearly second in the Arkansas Derby on what would have otherwise been Kentucky Derby day in May. Although regressing a bit to a 101 figure in the Arkansas Derby from the 110 earned in the Tampa Bay Derby, King Guillermo proved he belongs in top company. Rested since May, King Guillermo put in a very strong pair of half-mile drills at his home base in south Florida, the first of the two the best of 59 on the day and the second the best of 38, suggesting he may be able to do what Performer did in his recent comeback off a long layoff, and that is run as if he had never been away at all.

Snapper Sinclair has more second place finishes (six) than wins (five) in his career but he is competitive quite often and may be the one finishing fastest of all in the Cigar Mile. Snapper Sinclair ran well when second in the Essex Mile Handicap in March on a sloppy track with a 107 figure, similarly missing by a head on a muddy track in the Fifth Season Stakes in January with the same figure. This fall, Snapper Sinclair has run even better, earning a 114 figure when second (beaten three-quarters of a length) in the Tourist Mile Stakes. That race was on turf, but having run so well on dirt earlier this year, I think Snapper Sinclair could get a big piece in this race in his current form.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Bon Raison (116), Firenze Fire (111), Mr. Buff (119), Majestic Dunhill (112), Mind Control (113) and True Timber (113).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Performer
King Guillermo
Snapper Sinclair

Cigar Mile Handicap – Grade 1
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Dec. 5 – Post Time 4:13 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: Federal Bill Funding Cannot Come From Horseplayers

The passage of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) would signal a prominent turning point for Thoroughbred racing in America.

Regardless of where one has stood on the merits of the legislation over the years, its passage will bring to an end a generation of discord between industry participants, enabling our greater industry the opportunity to focus on long-ignored advancements to better secure the sustainability of horse racing.

At its heart, racing exists because of horse owners and breeders investing in Thoroughbreds and horseplayers wagering on them. Policies which hinder participation, of horseplayers or through ownership, stunt industry growth, and are in opposition to the mission of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, which seeks to grow participation through these two key groups. We want racing's overall “pie” to grow, but without horse owners and horseplayers voluntarily choosing to participate in the sport, racing would be would be a shell of itself.

The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act will yield a federally-recognized organization to facilitate doping control within the sport while bringing more constituencies under the regulatory fold. Upon its passage, substantial planning and execution will still be required, including identifying the funding mechanism for individual states' participation in HISA-created programs. The path forward to paying for these programs remains unclear.

In some states, wagering is a main source of funding for racing commissions to regulate the sport. Should HISA programs increase costs to states – a reasonable expectation – it is possible they, in concert with other stakeholder groups, could turn to wagering channels to increase revenues.

This would be a gross miscalculation.

While HISA has earned support because of the undoubted need for racing to be proactive in maintaining its social license to operate, the programs associated with the bill should not be built on the backs of horseplayers.

The Thoroughbred Idea Foundation advocates for sound policies which encourage wagering, racing's most sustainable source of funding. These policies include reducing bet pricing, modernizing wagering technology and integrity measures, increased transparency and reporting standards as well as introducing fixed odds betting to complement pari-mutuel wagering.

Increasing costs to horseplayers is a counterproductive measure for the industry, and thus, any increases in bet pricing to pay for the programs associated with the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act should be a non-starter.

Below, please see more from the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's Wagering & Integrity Issues Steering Committee, presented by committee member Jonathon Kinchen.

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