Travers Stakes Features Derby Winner Mage vs. Jim Dandy Winner Forte
By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase
The Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes drew a strong field of seven, with three entering the race off stakes victories. Favoritism is likely to go to Forte, winner of the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga four weeks ago. Arcangelo, who beat Forte by 1 1/2 lengths in the G1 Belmont Stakes in June, certainly has proven himself with the top 3-year-olds in North America.
The same can be said for Mage, who wasn't disgraced at all when second in the G1 Haskell Stakes last month, two races following his upset win in the G1 Kentucky Derby. National Treasure is another proven at the level as he won the G1 Preakness Stakes in May, but that was followed up by a sixth-place effort in the Belmont. Tapit Trice won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes in April but since then has been uncompetitive, with a seventh-place effort in the Derby, a third-place finish in the Belmont and a fifth-place result in the Haskell.
Scotland is a very interesting 3-year-old who enters the Travers off a strong win in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga five weeks ago. Disarm rounds out the field and has run well at the level as he was second in the G2 Louisiana Derby, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, won the G3 Matt Winn Stakes and was most recently fourth in the Jim Dandy.
Top win contenders:
There is little doubt in my mind Forte can win this year's Travers Stakes, but I'm going to start with Scotland as my top choice and he's certainly going to pay more for a win bet if he succeeds as he is 12-1 on the morning line. Just a nose shy of a perfect four-for-four record, Scotland is the most lightly raced horse in the field. That's no concern considering his Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, has rarely been known to overreach with horses in his care and particularly with 3-year-olds. As a horse that has only run four times, Scotland may have the most room to improve among the strong Travers field and that bodes very well for his chances.
Stretching out to a mile for the first time in career start number three in June, Scotland earned a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure, which incidentally was the same figure Forte earned when second in the Belmont Stakes one week later. Then, when stretched out to two turns for the first time in the nine-furlong Curlin Stakes last month, Scotland not only improved to a 107 figure very similar to the 109 figure Forte earned winning the Jim Dandy Stakes eight days later at the same distance and over the same track, he did so with ease.
Since then Scotland was flattered as Curlin runner-up Il Miracolo just won the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this week, and it must be noted that Cagliostro, who finished second behind Scotland in his June 3 win, was second in the Smarty Jones as well. As to having the pedigree to successfully run the 1 1/4-mile trip of the Travers, there is no issue because Scotland is a son of Good Magic, the sire of Mage, who proved 10 furlongs to be no issue when winning this year's Kentucky Derby. With it being likely National Treasure will go for the lead as he did when winning the Preakness and before fading to sixth in the Belmont, Scotland is very likely to be in a great spot in the early stages. From there jockey Junior Alvarado, who has been aboard for all three wins, can press the gas pedal at the top of the stretch to get the lead and hold off Forte for the upset win.
Forte has absolutely no knocks, except he will be the prohibitive betting choice. He finished first in five graded stakes in a row starting with the G1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last summer and ending with the G1 Florida Derby this past spring, with his best figure 106 earned winning the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. After a setback which resulted in being withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby, Forte ran very well in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont after nine weeks away from the races. The 99 figure earned in that race was significantly bettered to 109 when winning the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga four weeks ago, a race in which it appeared Forte was not going to win until the final yards when his athleticism and determination, as well as that of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., helped him prevail by a nose.
Blinkers added for that race may have helped as well, and so on a pattern for further improvement off what is the best last race figure in the field, Forte certainly figures to be right there at the finish once again.
Honorable mention goes to Arcangelo and to Mage, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who considered them to have as much probability to win as either Forte or Scotland. Having run five times, Arcangelo is the second most lightly raced horse in the field behind Scotland, and he too has three career wins. Those three have come in succession, with 97, 97 and 100 figures. The biggest of those victories came in the Belmont Stakes on June 10, and considering Arcangelo won on March 18 after being off since January 18, the two month rest he's coming back from is of no concern. Still, it might take a bigger improvement than from the 97 figure earned winning the Peter Pan Stakes in May to the 100 in the Belmont to be competitive with the 107 and 109 figures earned by Forte and Scotland recently which are likely to be repeated or bettered.
Similarly, Mage went from a 102 figure when second behind Forte in the Florida Derby to 104 when winning the Kentucky Derby, but since then earned a 99 figure behind National Treasure in the Preakness then 102 when second in the Haskell Stakes five weeks ago. On the other hand, Mage had been away from the races for nine weeks between those two so could improve and be right there at the finish with Forte, and hopefully Scotland, in this year's Travers Stakes.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Disarm (106 when fourth behind Forte in the Jim Dandy), National Treasure (102 winning the Preakness) and Tapit Trice (103 when winning the Blue Grass Stakes).
Win Contenders in preference/probability order:
Scotland
Forte
Honorable mention goes to both Arcangelo and to Mage
Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Saratoga, Saturday, August 26 – Post Time 6:11 p.m. ET
1 1/4 Miles for 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1.25 Million
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.
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