Horseplayers | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita Park brings together a field of eight 3-year-old fillies traversing a mile on the turf. Six of the eight have won either their most recent race or the one right before that and all eight fillies have been stakes placed at least once to date.

Madone is the most accomplished in terms of earnings at $367,800 with some of that earned when winning the G2 San Clemente Stakes at this mile turf trip in July.
Spanish Loveaffair is also a graded stakes winner, having captured the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes in February and more recently the non-graded Pebbles Stakes last month in New York.
Zero Tolerance stretches out to a mile off a win in the Unzip Me Stakes over the course just 27 days ago and is tied for the most lightly raced filly in the field, having run just three times.
Ego Trip (IRE) is the other filly making just her fourth career start and finished third in the G2 Lake Placid Stakes in August, which was her most recent race.
Eddie's New Dream finished second in the Melair Stakes on dirt in June and recently won strongly on the grass, while Freedom Flyer missed by a head in the California Oaks this past April.
Burgoo Alley (IRE) was third behind Zero Tolerance in the Unzip Me and also stretches out, having won at a mile on turf just before that.
Javanica missed by less than a length in the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and by the same margin in the Blue Norther Stakes last November and December, and returns from two months off following a sixth place effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

I believe strongly Zero Tolerance is the one to beat in this year's Autumn Miss Stakes, even over multiple stakes winner Madone. Zero Tolerance missed by a nose in a big effort when rallying from eighth of 10 in her career debut this past August in a sprint. Improving nicely 19 days later, she won on dirt then moving back to turf for the Unzip Me Stakes on Oct. 3 at the distance of six and one-half furlongs on turf. In that race, Zero Tolerance rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages to win going away. That effort earned her a career best 98 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and logical improvement in only the fourth start of her career puts her at, or above, the 104 field high figures Spanish Loveaffair earned winning the Pebbles Stakes and the 104 figure Madone earned winning the San Clemente Stakes.

There is no doubt in my mind Zero Tolerance can stretch out to a mile and run a winning race, given her dam Torreadora also produced multiple stakes winner El Tormenta, who won the 2019 Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile Stakes. Santa Anita leading jockey Flavien Prat was in the saddle as Zero Tolerance won her last two race and rides back and that is another reason this filly gets top billing in this situation.

Madone has won five of nine races in her careen, including two of three on the Santa Anita turf and four of eight stakes tries. Her best career effort came in July when winning the San Clemente Stakes at the distance of the Autumn Miss and earning a career-best 104 ™ figure. However, her most recent two races were some of her poorest efforts, first when fifth in the Del Mar Oaks, then when fifth in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month in New York. Then again, neither of those was a mile, the distance of the San Clemente which Madone returns to. Additionally, the Del Mar Oaks was a Grade 1 race and although not yet graded, the Jockey Club Oaks is going to be a Grade 1 race in the future. As such, the drop to this G3 level and the return to a mile and to a turf course she has had success over in the past bode well for Madone regaining top form.

Honorable mention goes to Burgoo Alley (IRE) and Javanica, and I would consider both for any exacta tickets played. Burgoo Alley (IRE) won at Santa Anita in a turf sprint this past June, in her second start since importing from Ireland. She stretched out to two turns next and ran two “A” races in a row, first beaten a head with a 101 figure then winning an allowance race at a mile with a stakes quality 103 figure. She then stumbled at the start of the Unzip Me to be last of seven, rushed up to third, fell back to fifth, then re-rallied for third.

Javanica finished second in a pair of stakes last fall and winter on this circuit with big efforts then tried dirt in the Santa Anita Oaks. When that experiment failed, she moved back to grass for the Senorita Stakes at a mile on turf in May but ran into a ton of traffic trouble and was eventually moved up from sixth to fifth after another horse was disqualified for interference. Returning in July, Javanica earned a career-best 101 figure with a win then faded to fifth after leading from the start in the Del Mar Oaks. Freshened again, she has potential to run as well as she did in July and could be a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Eddie's New Dreams (86), Ego Trip (94), Freedom Flyer (88) and Spanish Loveaffair (104).

Win Contenders:
Zero Tolerance
Madone

Autumn Miss Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Oct. 30 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $100,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Breeders’ Cup Buzz: How Top Handicappers Approach The ‘Best Two Days Of Racing’

With horses coming from all around the world and many of them meeting each other for the first time, the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships is a prodigious challenge for handicappers but also offers tremendous opportunity for big payoffs and even life-changing scores. Full fields, top-class horses and a vast wagering menu make Breeders' Cup an exhausting and exhilarating handicapping and money-management exercise.

In this latest edition of Breeders' Cup Buzz, we sought out the opinions of some top handicappers to share how they approach this event, whether they are participating in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) live money tournament or playing the races on their own.

Amy Brantley

So the best two days of racing are upon us! At least, they are my favorite two days of racing. I have to prepare my plan of attack not just for betting the races but competing in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge. It may sound strange but I take two different approaches to my handicapping when preparing for betting and competing.

First, these two days provide the best value for making a life-changing score and that is the focus for how I handicap and structure my bets. There is a tremendous amount of information (data and video) that can be accessed from multiple sources; however, I have found too much information creates chaos. Therefore, once the pre-entries post, I begin researching the past performances and replays, trainer angles, European shipper statistics and value payouts from past Breeders' Cup races. I do want to give a positive experience shoutout to STATS Race Lens. I began using this program and creating my personal angles approximately a year ago and have realized positive returns.

My main focus for BC wagering is horizontal. The pick fours, fives and sixes get my full attention. I target two or three races in which I find two key horses per race. I then build my tickets around those races. The races I identify as ones with great value I go deep. Of course, I then pray for great racing luck!

Lastly, with respect to the BCBC, I focus more vertical in my wagering structure because of the rules of the tournament (win, place, show, daily doubles, exactas trifectas). Thus, my handicapping of a particular race goes into more detail to lay out how I see the race playing out to determine the exacta and trifecta outcomes. Even though I do use the same sources of data, my analysis of the race gets more granular. This differs from my approach of “covering” a race for horizontal wagers where I will go deep. Also, in tournament play I am focusing on the races that are distances and surfaces where I have had greater success and feel I have more confidence. It is hard to be an expert of every race condition so I definitely have my preferences from class, distance and surface that play heavily in my tournament play. Good luck to everyone during the two best days of racing!
– Amy Brantley is a 12-time NHC qualifier and member of the NHC Players Committee

R. Scott Coles

The Breeders' Cup can be one of the best betting opportunities of the year if you are willing to be patient. The fields are so competitive that strong opinions on logical horses can often overpay. I spend a lot of time with pool selection and building bets around the best pools for my opinions and bankroll. There is no reason to play every race, but it takes more discipline than I usually have on weekends like this. Some of my most profitable weekends have been where I hit a couple big pick 3's or doubles and didn't invest as much in the always tempting pick 6's.

I spend a lot of time with replays and trip notes throughout the year and key in on horses I have saved in my virtual stables. I do extensive work with back-testing angles specific to Del Mar in STATS Race Lens to help highlight horses that might have a sneaky edge in a certain race. STATS also helps with back-testing some breeding angles and in researching the overseas shippers. Finally, I try to put it all together and see who makes the most sense with the potential pace of each race.
– R. Scott Coles was the 2019 Horseplayer of the Year and winner of the National Horseplayers Championship

Justin Mustari

I personally do not approach the Breeders' Cup from a handicapping standpoint much different than I would for any other day. I may start my process a couple days sooner but until entries and post positions are set, I would most likely not start handicapping. Other than the occasional emotional connection to a horse would be the only time I would be handicapping that specific race. That horse this year is One Timer running in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. My family and I are good friends with the connections of One Timer, so best of luck to them.

Once post positions are drawn, I use Brisnet PP's and Ragozin to do all my handicapping. My approach to the BCBC is a lot different than the NHC due to the format of “live money.” I plan around getting through day 1 with a minor increase in bankroll. Day 1 is not historically known for big scores. I like to position myself in a way that allows me to always have a chance on Day 2. By that I mean, a chance to reach the projected score I shoot for to win the contest. The hardest part of this contest Is being willing to go all in or close to it if needed. The winner will usually score over six figures in bankroll which most likely won't happen betting the race minimum.

When it comes to my live money betting style, I am not a player betting small chasing for a crazy outcome, kind of like I did in the NHC with the 19-1. I am not afraid to play huge exactas or trifectas because the pools during the Breeders' Cup allow it. When it's all said and done the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard are usually the ones who weren't afraid to bet. Good luck to everyone competing!
– Justin Mustari is the 2021 NHC Champion and Horseplayer of the Year

Tom Quigley

The Breeders' Cup is the most intense period of handicapping for horseplayers at any point during the entire year. My advice is to do as much prep work in advance as humanly possible leading up to Day 1 on Friday, which includes watching race replays (and workout videos), researching pedigrees, and trying to predict the pace scenario for each individual race.

In addition to that, and perhaps most importantly, is to strategize on how you are going to attack the card from a wagering standpoint. Most of us will have the handicapping data needed to identify the main contenders, but you should spend just as much time thinking about what wagering pools you will be playing and how you will be extracting the most value from them!

Lastly, despite the hours of prep work you may (and should) have put in, don't be rigid once Championship Day arrives. Conditions often change. A speed (or anti-speed) bias may unexpectedly develop, a key contender may scratch, a horse you may love could get overbet and/or look worse than anticipated in the paddock, etc. Be alert to every handicapping factor at all times, providing yourself every opportunity to make a huge score!
– Horseplayer Tom Quigley is VIP Player Concierge at Santa Anita, where he hosts pre-race handicapping seminars each racing day and Tweets out paddock observations at @Quigleys_Corner

Vic Stauffer

I tend to handicap the Breeders' Cup pretty much the same as any big day of racing, but the Breeders' Cup is a thousand-pound gorilla. One of the ways I've been successful as a handicapper is a work ethic that leaves literally no stone unturned, using all tools. I'll look at Daily Racing Form past performances, incorporate Thorograph and will do replays.

Replays are a laborious issue because of all the horses entered and the number of races. These two days are the only time I will look at replays of the last three races of every horse on the two cards, including the non-Breeders' Cup races that are part of the BCBC (Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge tournament). It's a lot of work, but it pays off. I'll say this is tedious, but then I'll remind myself that the next replay I watch will be the one that wins the BCBC for me.

My only betting is in the tournament, where you play dramatically different than you do at a regular day at the races with a bankroll. It's very much like the World Series of Poker. You have to look at the dollars in your bankroll as chips, not as actual dollars. If you didn't, you wouldn't be three races in and be $30,000 up and look to be all in with that $30,000. If you don't do that, you're not going to win.
– Vic Stauffer is Oaklawn track announcer and an NHC regular who has won numerous handicapping tournaments around the country, including the 2021 Pacific Classic Betting Challenge at Del Mar

Michelle Yu

When I'm looking at Breeders' Cup it definitely makes it hard because there's quality top to bottom. I like to look for a horse who was able to overcome because in the Breeders' Cup you have to be good AND lucky. A horse that was able to win despite a troubled trip, or maybe with the pace not exactly to their liking, shows that they don't need everything to be perfect to bring an A race. Also, I think workouts leading up to BC are very important. Horses generally train to peak on a certain day and it can be pretty evident in the morning if that is not the case.

Overall I still try to keep to my same betting strategies as I do the rest of the year. Things that I like, I still like; things that I don't, I don't. I don't want to talk myself on to a horse if they don't fit those parameters. Because wagering is all about the numbers; you have to maintain consistency. Otherwise you don't know what works and what doesn't.

My favorite bets for Breeders' Cup weekend are always the pic fours. Especially if there's a race I like a price horse because then I feel like I can build my ticket around helping on that price. I think that's probably backwards from a lot of people who like to try and build around a single!

I also love the doubles: the Juvenile Fillies to the Distaff and the Juvenile to the Classic. Doubles like that are super fun for me. Anytime they do head-to-heads as well, I'm always in on those.
– Michelle Yu is an on-air host and reporter based at Santa Anita who has covered racing around the world. She previously worked for trainers Ron Moquett and Steve Asmussen and is married to Santa Anita-based horseman Ryan Hanson.

The post Breeders’ Cup Buzz: How Top Handicappers Approach The ‘Best Two Days Of Racing’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

NYRA, Meadowlands Partner For Cross-Breed Cross Country Pick 5 On Saturday

The New York Racing Association Inc. (NYRA) will host a unique cross-breed Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday featuring stakes action from the Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands and Empire Showcase Day at Belmont Park.

Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/cross-country-wagers.

Current New York State regulations allow NYRA to accept wagering only on standardbred races that take place in New York. As such, the cross-breed Cross Country Pick 5 will not be available on-track at Belmont or to NYRA Bets customers located in New York State. The cross-breed Cross Country Pick 5 is available to NYRA Bets, LLC customers outside of New York State.

Saturday's sequence kicks off in Race 7 at 2:51 p.m. at the Meadowlands with the $650,000 Breeders Crown 3-Year-Old Fillies Trot led by the Nifty Norman-trained Hambletonian Oaks winner Bella Bellini, who bested Herculisa in last week's elimination in rein to returning driver Dexter Dunn. Altar, who won her elimination for trainer Nancy Takter, will again be piloted by Yannick Gingras.

The second leg will see Kentucky Futurity-winner Jujubee look to go one better for trainer Greg Wright, Jr. after finishing second to Cuatro De Julio in last week's elimination for the $650,000 Breeders Crown 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings Trot [Race 8, 3:27 p.m.]. Trainer Marcus Melander will send out In Range [Tim Tetrick] and Dancinginthedark [Brian Sears].

Action switches to the Belmont main track for the middle leg with a field of 10 juvenile fillies lining up for the $250,000 Maid of the Mist in Race 7 at 3:47 p.m. Leading the charge is a pair of contenders for trainer Jorge Abreu in Gold Square homebred Sue Ellen Mishkin and NY Final Furlong Racing Stable and Parkland Thoroughbreds' Venti Valentine.

Sue Ellen Mishkin romped to a 7 1/4-length score against fellow state-breds in August at Saratoga Race Course but finished a disappointing seventh last out after a troubled trip in the Grade 1 Spinaway traveling seven furlongs over the Spa main track. Venti Valentine rallied from off-the-pace to notch a nose score on debut after leaving post 11 in a field of 12 state-breds.

The penultimate leg returns to the Meadowlands for the $330,000 Breeders Crown Filly and Mare Pace in Race 9. Jim King Jr.'s Lyons Sentinel [Tim Tetrick] will look to make amends after finishing third as the mutuel favorite in her elimination which was won by Rocknificent over longshot Peaky Sneaky.

Closing out the sequence is the $250,000 Empire Distaff at 1 1/16-miles for New York-bred fillies and mares in Race 8 from Belmont Park.

Gary Barber's multiple graded stakes placed Make Mischief leads a talented field that includes last year's Grade 3 Go for Wand-winner Sharp Starr as well as the streaking Bank Sting, who has won her last four starts led by a last-out score in the Critical Eye Handicap in May at Belmont.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

America's Day at the Races is presented by America's Best Racing, Runhappy, and Claiborne Farm. For the complete broadcast schedule, and additional programming information, visit https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/tv-schedule.

The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, October 30:
Leg A: Meadowlands -Race 7, 3-year-old Filly Trot (2:51 p.m.)
Leg B: Meadowlands – Race 8, 3-year-old Trot (3:27 p.m.)
Leg C: Belmont Park – Race 7, Maid of the Mist (3:47 p.m.)
Leg D: Meadowlands – Race 9, Filly and Mare Pace (4:01 p.m.)
Leg E: Belmont Park – Race 8, Empire Distaff (4:21 p.m.)

The post NYRA, Meadowlands Partner For Cross-Breed Cross Country Pick 5 On Saturday appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Australia: Purse Money, Prestige In Abundance This Week

Fans of top-quality Australian racing will experience sensory overload this Friday night, with prestige and purse money in abundance at Sydney (Rosehill) and Melbourne (Flemington) tracks.

Sydney's slate of rich, new races continues with the third running of the Golden Eagle. Rosehill Racecourse has long hosted the world's richest 2-year-old race, the Golden Slipper. More recently, the track introduced a million-dollar race for 3-year-olds called the Golden Rose. This Friday night's Golden Eagle, for 4-year-olds at 7-1/2 furlongs, is the nation's 3rd-richest race with a whopping $7.5 million purse. The 18-strong field (plus four Also Eligibles) features a geographic plethora of form lines:

#1 Private Eye (5-1) is a last-start winner of Sydney's G1 Epsom Handicap. #2 I'm Thunderstruck (7-2 favorite) is a last-start winner of Melbourne's G1 Toorak Handicap. #13 Maximal (10-1) is one of three northern hemisphere 3-year-olds making his Australian debut (with a two-pound weight allowance versus the Australian horses, who turned four on August 1st). Maximal is a ¾-brother to Frankel, with imposing form lines in Ireland and England. The strongly credentialled import had been heavily bet in futures wagering, but his odds drifted back up from 7-1 after he drew the extreme outside gate.

The 6-1/2 furlong Classique Legend Stakes features six horses who contested the world's richest turf race The Everest two weeks ago, including 2nd-placed #2 Masked Crusader (5-2 favorite) and 3rd-placed #1 Eduardo (7-2). #9 Top Ranked (20-1) is a new shooter who was G1-placed in England but – like Maximal in the Golden Eagle – has drawn the extreme outside gate for his Aussie debut.

While Sydney is the unquestioned capital of racing innovation, purists consider Friday night's card at Melbourne's Flemington Racecourse to perennially be the best in Australia. Known as “Derby Day,” the all-graded stakes program (Track B) includes four Group Ones averaging 16 horses:

Race 5: The Empire Rose Stakes is for fillies and mares at a mile. #3 Tofane (5-2 favorite) is a three-time Group One winner at seven furlongs. This campaign, she is targeting mile races and comes off a strong 2nd to Golden Eagle favorite, I'm Thunderstruck.

Race 6: The Victoria Derby, Australia's oldest Classic, dates to 1855. Its 1-9/16 miles provides a stern stamina test just three months into the southern hemisphere season. No runners have raced beyond 1-3/8 miles. #1 Forgot You and #4 Gunstock share favoritism at 3-1 and give every indication – on performance and breeding – of staying the distance. Gunstock must overcome a horror post position with a short run to the sharp first turn.

Race 7: The Coolmore Stud Stakes, for 3-year-olds, will provide a great spectacle on Flemington's famous “Straight Six”-furlongs course. #9 Extreme Warrior (7-2 equal favorite) has burst onto the scene this campaign with impressive wins in a maiden and Group Three. #4 In the Congo (9-2 into 7-2 in the immediate aftermath of the field being finalized) won the Golden Rose in Sydney a month ago and adds blinkers. #6 Paulele (5-1) was considered for Godolphin's slot in The Everest. #5 Home Affairs (11-1) did contest The Everest, as the race's lone 3-year-old. Coolmore's colt adds a shadow roll and tongue tie, as his owners strive to win this stallion-making race that carries their sponsorship.

Race 8: The Kennedy Cantala Stakes is a wide open, one-mile contest whose 7-2 favorite, #14 Mr Brightside, has never contested a Group/Graded race. Supporters will look on the bright side and point to his six consecutive wins while cutting a swath through restricted ranks.

Look for a special preview of Monday night's $8 million Melbourne Cup, the two-mile “race that stops a nation.”

The Rosehill and Flemington cards will be broadcast live on TVG this Friday night (First Post: 9:20pm ET / 6:20pm PT) alongside cards from Eagle Farm and Ascot. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World App, skyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpires, Xpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWager, HPIbet, DRF Bets and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to live-streaming, past performances and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com.

The post Australia: Purse Money, Prestige In Abundance This Week appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post