Equibase Analysis: Olympiad Should Get The Gold In Cigar Mile

The Grade 1, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap is always a race to look forward to as we enter December, and the 2021 edition is no different. In terms of achievements, the field of eight is led by multiple graded stakes winner Code of Honor, with $2.9 million in career earnings. However, Code of Honor has run just four times this year and his only win came in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes in August. Independence Hall enters the race off a win in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes at the end of October, but similar to Code of Honor has just that one win to his credit in 2021 (from six races). Ginobili may be bringing the best recent credentials into this year's Cigar Mile as he just finished second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile following a win in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes. 

Then there's a pair of horses untried at this level in Americanrevolution and Olympiad. Americanrevolution just won the Empire Classic Stakes by 11 ¾ lengths, while Olympiad won an allowance race in mid-October. Plainsman won the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at the beginning of October before a disappointing third place effort as the favorite in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at the end of the month. Following Sea won the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes the second week of October then finished third of nine in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint and may find these opponents a bit easier. Pipeline rounds out the field as a colt who earned his first career win in September before a third place finish in the Perryville Stakes in October. 

Top three win contenders:
Olympiad is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just four races to date. Two were in 2020 as a 2-year-old where he finished third before winning by nearly three lengths last summer at Saratoga. For whatever reason Olympiad was given a year off by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and similar to his career debut 13 months earlier the colt was a bit short of 100% as he finished second this September. His next race and his most recent on October 14 was telling, as Olympiad controlled the pace in front from start to finish but even more notably held off a dogged rival throughout the stretch to win.

Improving to a career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure from 103 one month earlier, Olympiad appears to be on a pattern to take a big step forward. Jockey Joel Rosario, who rode Following Sea to victory in the Vosburgh Stakes in October as well as rode Plainsman to win the Ack Ack Stakes that same month, has never ridden Olympiad but gets aboard for the first time. This is significant in my opinion because Rosario, whose 2021 earnings stand at $32.9 million, is on a path to break the all-time yearly record for a jockey which stands at $34.1 million. As such, every mount through the end of the year takes on added significance and so Rosario's choice of riding Olympiad in a race where the winner's share of the purse is $450,000 is yet another reason I think this colt can post the upset and win the Cigar Mile Handicap.

Ginobili enters the Cigar Mile out of the toughest last race of any in the field where he was not disgraced when second of eight in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile behind Life Is Good. In that race, Life Is Good was sent to the front on fractions that would be impossible for most horses to maintain but won by almost six lengths. Ginobili raced in fifth and fourth in the early stages before showing a burst of speed to get to second, and was even lapped on the winner before Life is Good drew off in the stretch. That effort earned a 111 Equibase figure which was rock solid. Previous to that, Ginobili earned a 110 figure effort winning the Pat O'Brien Stakes in August and shows this horse has what it takes physically and mentally to win this race.

Following Sea is another coming out of a big race, the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished third of nine. Although passed in the stretch by winner Aloha West, Following Sea had some traffic issues in the race as he was on the rail on the far turn and early in the stretch but lost his path. Jockey John Velazquez, who rides again in the Cigar Mile, had to angle the horse off the rail to find a path and although the momentum Following Sea had lost earlier could not be totally regained, he did surge late to get third and earn a 107 Equibase figure. One race earlier in the Vosburgh Stakes, Following Sea earned a career-best 117 figure which is one of the best in the field. One slight question is whether he will like this one-mile trip he is running for the first time as much as those two six furlongs sprints. Other than that, Following Sea appears to have what it takes to contend for top honors in the Cigar Mile. 

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Americanrevolution (117), Code of Honor (120), Independence Hall (109), Pipeline (104) and Plainsman (107). 

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Olympiad
Ginobili
Following Sea

Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets– Grade 1
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, December 4 – Post Time 4:13 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $750,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.

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TVG Live On Site For Opening Days At Gulfstream, Oaklawn Park

Two of America's premier race meets will open this weekend and TVG will bring live coverage of opening day at Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park's Championship Meet into the homes of horse racing fans across the country.

TVG's Mike Joyce will be reporting live from Arkansas throughout the weekend as Oaklawn Park kicks off the racing season on Friday with a nine-race card featuring the $150,000 Advent Stakes for 2-year-olds. The race has drawn a field of ten including the 5-2 morning line favorite Cairama for Steve Asmussen. A $525,000 purchase at OBS in March, the son of Cairo Prince will have Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons. The stakes action will continue on Saturday with the $150,000 Mistletoe Stakes for 3-year-old fillies.

Gulfstream Park's Championship Meet will begin on Saturday and TVG's coverage will include the addition of the Jockey Cam which allows the viewers to view the action through the eyes of some of the best jockeys in the world. This popular technology debuted in California this summer. Larry Collmus will be on-site daily with expert insight and analysis throughout the meet. Saturday's opening day card features two stakes races for 2-year-olds – the $75,000 Pulpit Stakes and the $75,000 Wait a While Stakes for fillies. Both races are scheduled to be run at one mile on the turf.

The Championship Meet runs through April 3rd and is highlighted by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) on Jan. 29 and the $1 million Florida Derby (GI) on April 2.

In addition to racing from Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park, TVG will be featuring racing from Los Alamitos, Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

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Golden Gate Fields: 30-1 Maiden Winner Sparks Late Pick 5 Carryover Of $32,360 For Friday Card

Last Sunday, 30-1 maiden winner Tolonisito helped propel a $32,360 Late Pick 5 carryover into Friday's 9-race program at Golden Gate Fields. Track officials expect the new-money pool to soar well into the six figures.

The Late Pick 5, a 50-cent minimum bet, begins in Race 5 and ends in the final race of the day, Race 9. The lineup of races features a pair of allowance events and attracts 42 entrants, equating to 8.4 horses per race.

Post time for the first leg of the Late Pick 5 sequence is 2:43 PM PT. In the fifth race, grass routers voyage one mile and a sixteenth on projected firm going.

Race 6, the second leg of the Late Pick 5, is for hard-knocking filly and mare sprinters.

Race 7 is a competitive heat, with Lagatha inheriting the status as the 3-1 morning line favorite in a field of 10.

Turf sprinters dash five furlongs in the co-featured eighth race, another allowance event, and the well-bred Silver Claim looks to extend his unbeaten record in Northern California to 5 wins from 5 starts for leading conditioner Jonathan Wong.

The last leg of the sequence, Race 9, is a wide-open affair to end the day. The 7-2 morning line favorite is Awesome Dude, ridden by leading jockey Pedro Terrero.

Friday's program also features two additional carryovers: a Rolling Super High Five carryover of $11,583 scheduled for the first race, and a Golden Pick 6 jackpot carryover of $16,928 beginning in Race 4. First post on Friday is 12:45 PM.

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: What Needs To Change After Modern Games Fiasco?

Full fields. Harmonized rules. Modernized wagering systems and protocols. Transparent officiating.

Can these be the future of North American horse racing, and of the greater sport around the world?

“Our customers, the bettors, must be at the center of everything we do,” Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) chief executive officer Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges told the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF) last week.

“This approach applies to everything we do as a sport. Customers must be satisfied with our approach to horse welfare, to harmonizing betting rules, interference rules, the race schedule we offer and presenting races with full fields of competitive horses.”

What bettors want should drive how racing evolves. But that has not been the case in North America.

Customer centricity has not been a focus.

Hong Kong finds itself at the heart of a customer-friendly approach to racing and Engelbrecht-Bresges is the new chairman of the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA). While he acknowledges the IFHA is not a rule-making body itself, the push for harmonizing the global racing experience for customers is moving beyond just recommended best practices.

“We can talk about the importance of a customer-centric approach and harmonizing rules all we want, but with the global commingling business – through World Pools – we are proving the commercial value of it. World Pools is creating the financial incentive to change.”

The World Pools concept is simple.

Instead of having separate pari-mutuel pools for major race days in America, Great Britain, France, Ireland, Hong Kong and South Africa, just to name a few, one massive pool can be created, maximizing liquidity and financial interest for all participants. On 17 days of commingled World Pools run across Britain and Ireland in 2021, total handle eclipsed the equivalent of $481 million.

Hong Kong is a major cog in the process, with bettors in the region often comprising roughly 60% of the liquidity in World Pools offerings, according to Engelbrecht-Bresges. In November, the HKJC provided its local customers simulcasts of two Breeders' Cup races for the first time since 2014, and the hope is to offer more later.

“I really commend the Breeders' Cup and their global vision. It was important for us to recognize the steps that have been taken to adopt racing free of medication and I hope we can expand wagering opportunities over the next three to five-year period.”

While U.S. customers have been participants in World Pools offered on key race days, such as Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and other major race days, American races have not yet been chosen as targets for World Pools.

The Modern Games fiasco sharpened attention on America's lack of a customer-centric focus, exhibited through disparate rules which disproportionately disadvantage betting customers.

BRITISH TOTE CUSTOMERS PAID AS WINNERS ON MODERN GAMES

For those betting the Breeders' Cup in Great Britain, the experience was a bit different, even though their customers' money was commingled to the main Breeders' Cup pools.

Pari-mutuel betting there is run through the UK Tote Group, which took over tote betting across Britain in late 2019 via an investment from major horse owners and breeders.

After witnessing the scratching, un-scratching and eventual running for purse only, the UK Tote Group decided to pay-out win and place bets for customers who backed Modern Games.

“Our decision was not a difficult one,” says Susannah Gill, communications and corporate affairs director for UK Tote Group.

“We paid out on two winners – the actual winner of the race Modern Games and then the result on course, which was Tiz The Bomb, but we dipped into our own pockets for the Modern Games result because it's the expectation of our customers.”

UK Tote Group competes for customers with a plethora of corporate bookmakers offering bets at fixed-odds. When the bookmakers witnessed the Modern Games fiasco, many made the decision to pay out on both “winners” nearly immediately.

“Decisions such as these are obviously made by the competitive position in the market,” said Jon Knapman, UK Tote Group's chief commercial officer.

“Whatever it be – a goodwill payment, a 'justice-for-punters' payment – sometimes things just go wrong and we don't want our customers to be left hurting.”

Tote chose not to leave its customers behind, a decision which is part of their overall strategy to make pari-mutuel betting in Great Britain as competitive as possible. While it is undoubtedly the most sustainable source of betting revenue for racing, one of the greatest hindrances to pari-mutuel betting is the lack of price certainty – customers do not know the final odds of horses until after the last bets have been added to the pool, normally a few seconds after the start of a race.

Recognizing the chasm between British customers' experience with fixed-odds price certainty and pari-mutuel uncertainty, the UK Tote Group decided to bridge the gap to better serve its customers, launching a “tote guarantee” in early 2020 and in-place ever since, matching the fixed odds starting price if it happens to be higher than a winner's final pari-mutuel price.

Unsurprisingly, Tote's business is growing.

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WORLD POOLS FUTURE FOR AMERICA(S)?

UK Tote Group is a major partner with the Hong Kong-dominated World Pools where rules and betting protocol harmonization is a business necessity.

“World Pools don't just seek to provide a mechanism only for more prize money, but they are creating a path to improve critical business and industry infrastructure,” said Engelbrecht-Bresges, adding that several days of Hong Kong-hosted, commingled pools on some of South Africa's biggest race days are driving key investment to a jurisdiction in need of it.

“I hope we can bring it to South America in the future too.”

But until rules and protocols change in the favor of customers, the Americas may be left out of the World Pools boat.

“A cornerstone of global commingling is that all of the jurisdictions have some semblance of the same rules,” said UK Tote's Jon Knapman.

It is clear that America remains behind the curve to this point.

There are many examples for North America to follow and the Breeders' Cup may be a catalyst for operators and regulators to take notice and make needed adjustments.

For Engelbrecht-Bresges, who has served as the Hong Kong Jockey Club CEO since 2007, the choice is obvious.

“A customer-centric approach is a path to good business and future sustainability.”

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