Horseplayers | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes

Eight horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, which kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2022 in New York. The rest of the series consists of the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 and the Gotham Stakes on March 5 before culminating in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9.

Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95™ figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Two Carryovers Up For Grabs On Friday At Meadowlands

While the worldwide pandemic continued its grip on society over the last 12 months, The Meadowlands managed to make the best of 2021 and will conclude the year Friday (Dec. 31) night with a 14-race program that features not one, but two carryovers sure to entice The Big M faithful, who will have gone 12 days without action at the mile oval when the first race gets underway at 6:20 p.m.

There's an added bonus. Beginning at 6 p.m., on-track guests can receive a free 2022 calendar filled with photos of the equine stars of 2021.

The Meadowlands will race this Friday, and go dark on Saturday, Jan. 1, before gearing up for its usual Friday-Saturday schedule, effective Jan. 7.

After zero favorites managed to win any of the races in the sequence, the 20-cent Pick-5 failed to yield a winning ticket when the last race card took place on Dec. 18, creating a carryover of $38,923 for this Friday.

Big M fans figure to fire away, since all of the Pick-5 races – as well as 13 of the 14 races on the night – will sport full 10-horse fields.

This will be the first Pick-5 carryover since January 2, when the final pool was a massive $360,948.

This time around the final pool is estimated to reach $150,000 and the bet – as always – sports a low 15 percent takeout. A negative takeout pool – where the return to bettors is greater than the “new money” that will be pushed through the windows – looms.

Big M TV's Dave Brower and Jessica Otten will take an extended look at the Pick-5 and give out tickets during the pre-game show.

The 20-cent Pick-6 also failed to yield a winning ticket on Dec. 18, and that pool will begin with $6,131 in the hat. The last Pick-6 to see a carryover was on Dec. 17 when the total pool was $55,626. That figure figures to be much higher this time around.

The last day of the year will mark the end of a good 12-month run for the track, from a business perspective anyway.

“New Year's Eve marks one of the greatest comeback stories in Meadowlands history,” said track Chief Operating Officer and General Manager Jason Settlemoir. “We have been able to overcome the pandemic as our faithful followers have our average nightly handle at $3 million.

“Our four big days of racing – the Hambletonian, Breeders Crown, Meadowlands Pace and Fall Final Four/TVG Finals were all highly successful. On Hambletonian Day, we wagered $6.4 million to end our Winter-Spring-Championship Meeting with an average handle of $3.3 million per card.”

In addition, annual total handle at The Meadowlands has increased over $100 million as compared to just three years ago.

New Year's Eve at The Big M will offer great racing. And a whole lot more.

“The Big M offers a great party with great food, along with wagering on a big carryover as well as the College Football Playoff in our FanDuel Sportsbook,” said Settlemoir. “After the races, we will close out 2021 with a huge fireworks display to ring in the New Year. The Meadowlands promises to be one of the most exciting New Year's Eve venues in the Metropolitan area with an incredible evening of non-stop action Friday night.”

GET SOCIAL: Everything Meadowlands is available by going on Twitter. You can check in with the Big M team for early changes, racing information and staff selections by going to @themeadowlands or #playbigm.

On race nights, stay in touch with Otten (@JessicaOtten1), Brower (@eedoogie), Dave Little (@DaveLittleBigM), Ken Warkentin (@kenvoiceover), Shades (@ShadesOnRacing) and Edison Hatter (@Edison_1999_).

NEW YEAR'S EVE IN PINK: A great way to spend New Year's Eve is in Pink Restaurant at The Meadowlands.

There is a sumptuous buffet available for $64.95 and includes a complimentary glass of celebratory champagne for those 21 years of age and older.

Reservations can be made by calling 201-THE-BIGM.

BET THE CFP AT THE FDS: They'll be plenty of action for horseplayers on the New Year's Eve card at The Meadowlands, but they'll also be plenty of action for college gridiron fans as well, as the College Football Playoff will take place with a pair of games certain to take tons of play. The winners of the semifinal tilts will meet for the National Championship on Jan. 10.

So, you want to bet on the games? You can do so inside the grandstand at The Big M in the FanDuel Sportsbook.

The first semifinal gets underway at 3:30 p.m., where the Crimson Tide of Alabama are a 13½-point favorite over the Bearcats of Cincinnati. Alabama is -590 on the money line and the under/over is 57.

In the late game – which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. – the Georgia Bulldogs are a 7½-point choice over the Michigan Wolverines. Georgia is -280 on the money line and the under/over is 45½.

New Year's Day (Jan. 1) will see many college bowl games, followed the following day (Jan. 2) by Week 17 of the National Football League with many games having playoff implications.

Watch and wager on all the games in the FanDuel Sportsbook, where the hours are Monday through Thursday from 10 a.m.-1 a.m.; Friday 10 a.m.-2 a.m.; Saturday 7 a.m.-2 a.m. and Sunday 8 a.m.-12 a.m.

The post Two Carryovers Up For Grabs On Friday At Meadowlands appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Festivus Contest Winners Rolled The Dice With Hunch Play At Tampa

Like most horse racing handicappers, Steve Tucker and Henry Walthert have faced the question of “how did you pick that horse?” countless times.

After finishing 1-2 in the “10 Days of Festivus Challenge Handicapping Contest,” it's one they don't mind answering.

Even though Tucker was in third place entering Friday's final day of the online contest conducted through Tampa Bay Downs, the high school biology teacher from Hillsborough, N.J., decided a hunch play was too strong to ignore in the fourth race on the turf.

“My college roommate at Rutgers University was named Skip, so I decided to play Skipperini,” Tucker said of the 2-year-old gelding who was 8-1 on the morning line. “Whether you're doing the stock market or playing the horses or gambling on sports, there are so many different angles you can take.”

Walthert, a retired association executive from Ottawa, Canada, had a more logical reason to select Skipperini in the free online contest: He was in 18th place entering the last day and needed to gain lots of ground to finish first or second and collect a cash prize.

“The guys in front of me were probably going to play the favorite, so I wouldn't be able to make a big enough jump otherwise,” he said.

By the time the race started, Skipperini's odds had climbed to 19-1 – the longest shot in the race – and Tucker and Walthert seemed to be grasping at straws. But when Skipperini and jockey Antonio Gallardo rallied for the victory, their two big contest backers collected $63.40 on their mythical $2 across-the-board wagers – enough to defeat more than 1,300 entrants.

At the conclusion of the contest, Tucker sported a bankroll of $247.60 and Walthert stood at $223.20. Tucker took home first-place money of $1,000 and Walthert earned $500. In an interesting twist, Skipperini had won his previous start two weeks earlier, breaking his maiden as a 2-1 favorite.

“It's an exhilarating feeling,” said Tucker, who won $5,000 playing an online handicapping event through Remington Park in Oklahoma several years ago. “I've been following horse racing for 20 years, and to come out on top is really something. It's humbling because there are a lot of people who know more than I do.”

Skipperini wasn't the only hunch horse to help Tucker win. He played Bens Malice on Dec. 10 because his brother's name is Ben, and the 2-year-old gelding won at odds of 27-1 while returning $82 in mythical contest winnings.

Walthert, reached Monday during a ski vacation at Sommet Edelweiss north of Ottawa, was already having a great time playing the contest when Dame Fortune smiled on him Friday.

“It's always a challenge to pick winners, and when you're able to, it's rewarding,” he said. “It makes you look forward to the next race. It's fun to follow along and see how you're doing.”

Walthert's general strategy through the contest was to look for hot jockeys and trainers connected to horses with odds he felt would reap enough profit to climb in the standings.

“I tried not to go with the favorites,” he said.

While Walthert and his wife Monique have visited Tampa Bay Downs, Tucker and wife Diane have not. The Festivus champion says that is likely to change.

“I'm thinking about (retiring) next year, and I have a couple of buddies who are retired in Florida,” Tucker said. “I really hope to get to Tampa Bay Downs. Everyone I've talked to who has been there says it's a beautiful place.”

The post Festivus Contest Winners Rolled The Dice With Hunch Play At Tampa appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Mahoning Valley: Thursday’s Card Features Mandatory Payouts

In a unique Thursday edition of live racing at Hollywood Gaming Mahoning Valley Race Course, handicappers tuning in on Dec. 30 will be offered customary end of meet mandatory payouts of the Pick 4, Pick 5, and Buckeye Jackpot Pick 6 wagers.

There will be one final opportunity to take down the entire carryover of the Buckeye Jackpot Pick 6 on Wednesday, Dec. 29 which starts in Race 3 with an estimated post time of 1:40 p.m. It is a 20-cent wager with a 20 percent takeout rate. The jackpot pays out to a single ticket which correctly selects the winner of all six races.

The official carryover amounts across all wagers for Thursday's card will be available at the conclusion of live racing on Wednesday. Should the Pick 4, Pick 5, or Buckeye Jackpot Pick 6 be hit on the Wednesday race card, a mandatory distribution will still be held on Thursday using the net wagering pools generated on that day.

Hollywood Gaming Mahoning Valley Race Course races Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with a first race post time of 12:45pm and Saturday with a first race post time of 12:15pm. The fall race meet runs Oct. 22 – Dec. 30, 2021 with three unique cards on Friday, Oct. 22, Friday, Nov. 26, and Thursday, Dec. 30 all with a first race post time of 12:45pm. The 2022 Winter/Spring race meet dates run Jan. 1, 2022 – April 16, 2022 following the same Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday format.

The post Mahoning Valley: Thursday’s Card Features Mandatory Payouts appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post