Nine 3-year-olds are expected to enter the gate for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark. Of the group, only two enter the race off stakes wins. Un Ojo, the gallant one-eyed winner of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in February over the track, is one of the pair. The other is the filly Secret Oath, 7 1/2-length winner of the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes on the same day as the Rebel.
Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes runner-up Doppelganger is another with experience at the level. Cyberknife and We the People enter the Arkansas Derby off strong wins but both are stepping up from allowance races to this Grade 1 level for the first time. Kavod, Chasing Time and Ben Diesel finished fourth, fifth and eighth in the Rebel, respectively, and will have to improve considerably to have an impact. Rebel third-place finisher Barber Road, who was surging at the end and beaten just three-quarters of a length, will not need much improvement at all to be a contender and earn some of the all-important 170 Road to the Derby points awarded to the top four finishers in the race.
Analysis and leading contenders:
Simply put, Secret Oath ran faster winning the Honeybee Stakes on Feb. 26 than Un Ojo did winning the Rebel Stakes later on the same day. Not only is the 100 Equibase Speed Figure the best in the Arkansas Derby field, it is nine points better than the 91 figure Un Ojo earned that day. Adding to that, Secret Oath won the Honeybee in spite of losing some momentum on the far turn when in tight quarters and before accelerating on demand for jockey Luis Contreras to get the lead and coast home.
Previous to the Honeybee, in the Martha Washington Stakes one month earlier, Secret Oath moved at will from fourth on the turn to get the front before easily winning by 7 1/4 lengths with a 94 figure. Not only is this filly the type of horse who can win from anywhere in the early stages and one who accelerates on demand, she is the daughter of Absinthe Minded, who was a multiple stakes winner at Oaklawn who earned over $600,000 in her career. Her sire is Arrogate, who earned more than $17 million including the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic, but passed away in 2020. Therefore there is little doubt Secret Oath can handle the nine-furlong trip. Last but certainly not least, Secret Oath is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the last trainer to saddle a filly to win the Kentucky Derby – Winning Colors in 1988. Since the advent of the Road to the Derby points system in 2013, no filly has run in the Kentucky Derby because that requires a horse to run against males twice, first in a points race against males and then in the Derby. That being said, Secret Oath appears to be the type of filly capable of bringing her Hall of Fame trainer back to Louisville for the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” once again following a win in this year's Arkansas Derby.
Cyberknife earned the same 100 figure as Secret Oath when winning his most recent race on Feb. 19. Highly regarded since winning his debut last fall (but disqualified and placed second), Cyberknife stretched out to two turns in December for his third career start and won easily. Next out in January in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, Cyberknife never contended and finished sixth, but he rebounded off that effort in his February win. Gun Runner is the sire of Cyberknife as well as the sire of filly Echo Zulu, who just won her 2022 debut at Fair Grounds and is a top Kentucky Oaks contender. Gun Runner is also the sire of Early Voting, who won the Withers Stakes earlier this year and who is on the Road to the Derby trail as well. As such, there is little doubt Cyberknife has the breeding to take to this distance with no problem.
There's also little doubt Cyberknife can hold his top form and run as well, or better, than his previous start because two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox has an extremely strong 31% win rate with horses in stakes which won their most recent start, going back two years. As such, Cyberknife appears the biggest threat to Secret Oath winning.
Honorable mention goes to We the People, Un Ojo and Barber Road. Un Ojo is undoubtedly a game horse who runs fast in the late stages, evidenced by his 11th to second finish in the Withers Stakes in February before his rallying win on the rail in the Rebel. Still, his best figure, 91, appears too far afield from the 100 figures Secret Oath and Cyberknife earned in their most recent starts to win this race, considering both Secret Oath and Cyberknife can improve upon their most recent races as well.
We the People is a lightly raced colt who is two-for-two in his career. Both wins came in two-turn races at Oaklawn, first in February with a 91 figure before improving to a 99 figure on March 12. He appears ready for this level and likely has the class to compete with these horses being a son of Constitution, who sired Tiz the Law, winner of the 2020 Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes as a 3-year-old.
Barber Road was surging late and only lost by a half-length in the Rebel with a 90 figure. He also rallied from 11th of 12 in the Southwest Stakes in January before finishing third with a 95 figure. As such, Barber Road should be considered for any exacta or trifecta bets in the Arkansas Derby as he could easily be in the top three as he's now been in six of seven career races.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Ben Diesel (93), Chasing Time (93), Doppelganger (93) and Kavod (89).
Win Contenders:
Secret Oath
Cyberknife
Arkansas Derby – Grade 1
Race 12 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, April 2 – Post Time 7:35 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1.25 Million
Ellis Starr is National Racing Analyst for Equibase
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