Nine marathon turf horses were entered for the Grade 1, $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes at Aqueduct's Belmont at the Big A meet, with the winner likely to return in five weeks to compete in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita Nov. 4.
Last year's Joe Hirsch winner, War Like Goddess defends her title, having finished third in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), and 2017 winner Beach Patrol followed up his Joe Hirsch win with a runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup. Rebel's Romance attempts to get back into the form shown winning last year's Breeders' Cup Turf with a top showing here, having not finished when last seen in July in the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes as he lost his jockey after clipping another horse's heels.
Stone Age was second behind Rebel's Romance in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf but is another who hasn't run well since then, with fifth, 12th and fifth-place efforts since then. Astronaut won the G2 Red Smith Stakes last fall at a marathon distance (1 3/8 miles) but finished 10th in March in his only start this year and hopes to recover previous top form at the level. Pioneering Spirit enters the race off a win in the Bernard Baruch Stakes earlier this month, with a third-place effort in the G1 Sword Dancer Stakes prior to that.
Grand Sonata won the G3 Kitten's Joy Stakes last year as a 3-year-old but has won just one of 11 races since then. So High appears overmatched, with seventh- and eighth-place finishes in three graded stakes this year. Soldier Rising has been competitive at the level, finishing second in the G1 Manhattan Stakes in June then second again in the Sword Dancer last month. Similarly, Adhamo won the G1 United Nations Stakes in 2022 and is making only his second start of 2023, with a third-place finish in the G1 Arlington Million Stakes last month to possibly improve upon.
Top Contenders
Astronaut is very interesting in this year's Joe Hirsch, particularly when you consider none of the other eight horses in the field have shown much interest in leading in the early stages of their races. Channel Maker, who won this race in 2018 and 2020 and who was second (by a half-length) in 2019, had the same running style and used it to great advantage and I expect the same from Astronaut.
In his final start of 2022, Astronaut led from start to finish in the similar G2 Red Smith Stakes, run at 11 furlongs on the Aqueduct turf. He beat 11 other horses in that race, earning a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure, and never gave any a chance to run as he opened up by a couple of lengths in the stretch before coasting home. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche was aboard that day, as he will be for this race.
Astronaut started just one time this year, back in March in the Mac Diarmida Stakes, where he did not lead early and faded to 10th of 12 after stalking the pacesetter in second. There's no doubt Astronaut can run this mile and one-half trip, as he finished second in the 1 3/4 San Juan Capistrano Stakes (G3) in 2021. Particularly considering there is likely to be a very soft or yielding turf for this year's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, it might be very difficult for any horse to get firm footing and stop an easy early leader like Astronaut.
Adhamo is a Grade 1 winner in a Grade 1 race, which can be an important separating factor when handicapping top races. Adhamo has won just one of seven races in the U.S. since importing from Europe in late 2021, landing in the top barn of Chad Brown (who also saddles Stone Age). In his U.S. debut, Adhamo rallied furiously from last of 11 to just miss by a head in the G3 Fair Grounds Stakes, earning a career-best 110 figure in the process. Three races later, Adhamo won the United Nations Stakes at 11 furlongs with a 104 figure.
Following a sixth of seven finish in last year's Turf Classic, Adhamo took eight months off, returning to rally from 10th to third in the Arlington Million Stakes at a mile and one-quarter last month, with a 109 figure. Likely to improve nicely second off the layoff and with Flavien Prat staying aboard, having ridden the horse to victory in the United Nations last year, Adhamo may have the best chance to close and win if Astronaut cannot lead from start to finish.
War Like Goddess, a mare, was racing against males for the first time in her career in this race last year and won easily by nearly three lengths with a 102 figure. She followed that up four weeks later when not disgraced a bit as she finished third (rallying from 11th) in the Breeders' Cup Turf Stakes, improving to a career best 124 figure. Returning to the races this spring, War Like Goddess won the G3 Bewitch Stakes (104 figure) then regressed to finish sixth in the G1 New York Stakes. She then rebounded with a top effort, though beaten a neck, in the G2 Glens Falls Stakes last month, at the mile and one-half distance of the Joe Hirsch. As such, War Like Goddess looks capable of running as well in this race as she did last year and rounds out the main group of win contenders.
About some of the rest:
A lot of eyes, and betting dollars, will likely be on Rebel's Romance and Stone Age, the one-two finishers in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf. Although they earned field high figures of 127 and 125, respectively, with those efforts, there are concerns about their current form. This is because Rebel's Romance finished seventh in his first start of 2023 in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March, then didn't get much out of his effort in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes in late July when, unfortunately, he clipped another horse's heels and lost his jockey.
Similarly, Stone Age finished last of 12 in his 2023 debut in February in Qatar, then faded to fifth and was badly beaten by 11 lengths last month in the Sword Dancer Stakes on a yielding course.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Grand Sonata (108), Pioneering Spirit (101), So High (GB) (111) and Soldier Rising (GB) (112).
Top Win Contenders
Astronaut
Adhamo
War Like Goddess
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes – Grade 1, $500,000
Belmont At The Big A
Saturday, Sept. 30 – Race 6, Post Time 2:40 PM E.T.
1 1/2 Miles on Turf; 3-Year-Olds and Upward
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Astronaut Could Prove Tough To Catch In Joe Hirsch Turf Classic appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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