This Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs brings together a field of seven horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division trying to earn a “Win and You're In” spot into the big race in November.
Leading the field in terms of career accomplishments is Mandaloun, who has earned over $2 million while winning six of 10 races. Mandaloun makes his return to the races after four months off and following a ninth of 14 finish in the Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes at the end of February.
Next in terms of accomplishments, and perhaps in better recent form, are Olympiad and Last Samurai. Olympiad has won all four starts in 2022 including the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic and the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes in succession. Last Samurai was last seen on April 22 winning the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.
Another horse on a winning streak is Caddo River, who is going for his fourth straight win and enters a two-turn stakes for the first time since last spring when second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. The depth in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes continues with Americanrevolution, winner of five races from eight starts including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap last December.
Proxy has finished in-the-money in four straight races including when second behind Olympiad in the New Orleans Classic. Title Ready rounds out the field, having earned over three-quarters of a million dollars in his career, with his last win coming in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes in January of 2021.
Top contenders:
Olympiad is the “NOW” horse, as he's won three graded stakes in a row including one at this Grade 2 level and at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Stephen Foster. Olympiad earned his most recent win in his first start at Churchill Downs, in May when easily winning the Alysheba Stakes. Starting with the first of his four most recent wins, Olympiad has earned 116, 105, 112 and 107 
Equibase® Speed Figures. After Olympiad shipped into Churchill Downs from Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott's Florida base and winning the Alysheba, he then went with Mott's stable to New York, where he has been in consistent training before shipping back to Kentucky for this race.
Junior Alvarado has been aboard for the colt's last four wins and rides again and Olympiad has the tactical speed to sit in second in the early stages behind whichever horse wants to lead early in this field. Interestingly enough, not one of the seven entrants has led at either the opening quarter or half-mile mark in a race in a very long time. My guess is Americanrevolution, who has drawn just inside Olympiad, will take advantage of his post and take the lead from the start. From that point on, Olympiad will be in the catbird seat and can take over in the stretch just like he did in the New Orleans Classic and in the Alysheba, not to be caught the rest of the way.
Caddo River is another horse in tremendous current form, and with Mandaloun's recent form and ability to fire with an effort good enough to win in this field in question following four months off, Caddo River should be considered a contender. First or second in nine of 13 career starts, Caddo River brought his record at Churchill Downs to a perfect two-for-two with a win in a highly rated classified allowance race (just below stakes level) four weeks ago. That effort earned a strong 105 figure, which followed 107 and 103 figures. The 107 figure equaled his best figure and effort when winning the 2021 Smarty Jones Stakes by 10 lengths in January of last year. Ricardo Santana, Jr. has been aboard Caddo River for his last four races including those three straight wins and rides again, providing more evidence this colt could run well enough to post the upset and win this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.
Last Samurai won the identical Oaklawn Handicap when last seen in April, posting the upset by 12 to 1 while strongly drawing off by four lengths at the end. That followed a huge effort when a neck short of beating multiple stakes winner Lone Rock in the Temperence Hill Stakes three weeks earlier. The first of those two efforts earned the colt a 112 figure more than good enough to compete with the best in this race, and his win in the Oaklawn Handicap earned a 104 figure. Moving to the barn of Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas since his last race and having put in a very strong :47.8 half-mile workout in preparation for this race, Last Samurai is yet another who might go to post at higher odds than make sense given his probability to run well enough to win.
Mandaloun certainly can win, or be very competitive with his best effort but there are questions as to whether that would be good enough to win against some of the others here, particularly off a four month layoff. Mandaloun won the Risen Star Stakes last year as a 3-year-old then two races later was placed first in the Kentucky Derby following the disqualification of Medina Spirit, earning a 110 figure in the process. After following that up with a 109 figure winning the Pegasus Stakes last June, Mandaloun was placed first in the Haskell Stakes after missing by a nose when original winner Hot Rod Charlie was disqualified. Taking six months off, Mandaloun faced older horses for the first time and won the Louisiana Stakes in January with a career-best 115 figure, before finishing ninth of 14, beaten nearly 19 lengths, in the Saudi Cup. He's been working well for his first start in more than four months but nevertheless he's giving up a lot of physical conditioning to the other six horses in the field, three of which have run as recently as four weeks ago.
About the rest: In spite of winning the Cigar Mile last December with a 115 figure, Americanrevolution ran poorly when fourth in a non-graded stakes on June 4 at Churchill Downs as the prohibitive favorite. Furthermore, a Race Lens query about Todd Pletcher's record in graded dirt route stakes with horses making their second starts off a layoff reveals a poor six for 41 record going back five years. Proxy finished well for second in the Blame Stakes last month (110 figure), the same race in which American Revolution was fourth. He was easily beaten by Olympiad two races before that and although he could finish in-the-money again, I don't believe he can beat any of the top contenders if they run their best races and he does as well. Title Ready hasn't won in six races, and hasn't threatened to win since victorious in the Louisiana Stakes 18 months ago with a 100 figure.
Top Win Contenders:
Olympiad
Caddo River
Last Samurai
Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, July 2 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $750,000
The post Equibase Analysis: Olympiad Poised To Upset Mandaloun In Stephen Foster appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
