Equibase Analysis: Appleby-Trained Modern Games Deserves Top Billing In Woodbine Mile

This Saturday's 2022 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile features a field of 11 vying for the $600,000 winner's share of the purse as well as an automatic berth in the Breeders' Cup Mile in November.

  • Modern Games (IRE) brings a $1.4 million career bankroll into the race as well as a five-for-10 record including the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last fall and appears to be the one to beat.
  • Still, Ivar (BRZ) has won six of 12 races including the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile in 2021 and enters the race off a win.
  • Shirl's Speight is another proven at the level, having won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile this past April and also has a strong career record consisting of five wins in 10 starts on turf or all-weather.
  • The only filly in the race, Wakanaka (IRE) has won seven of 13 races including the G2 Dance Smartly Stakes in her most recent race and deserves consideration as well in this top notch field.
  • March to the Arch has banked over $1 million in a 33 race career and won the G2 King Edward Stakes over this course in 2020 but hasn't won since July, 2021.
  • Last year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile winner, Town Cruise, is back to defend his title but he has finished fifth, eighth and fifth in his three starts since then.
  • War Bomber (IRE) enters the race off a win in the G3 Seagram Cup on the main track and although he has won three of six turf tries he's facing the toughest field in his career.
  • Get Smokin won the G3 Tampa Bay Stakes in February of 2021 and a minor stakes last May but is winless in seven races since. It should also be noted Get Smokin has a tremendous amount of early speed, as does Town Cruise and Mighty Heart, who won the Queen's Plate Stakes on the main track in 2021 and the G2 Autumn Stakes last November but is winless in five races since then.
  • Finest Sound (IRE) is another like Modern Games (IRE) who comes over from Great Britain. He was just beaten a neck in the G2 Celebration Mile Stakes near the end of August and enters the race in the best form of his life.
  • Homer Screen (BRZ) rounds out the field. He was a Group 2 winner in his native Brazil and his best effort to date in North America came when second in the G3 American Stakes in June.

Main Contenders:

There's no doubt the handicapping process starts with the horse and its chances of success. Still, in some cases the trainer is just as important, provided the horse fits the conditions of the race and is in form. With that in mind I must call attention to the amazing record of trainer Charles Appleby, the top European based trainer, when he ships horses to North America. Per a Race Lens query, when Appleby comes to North America, his horses perform incredibly well to the tune of 15 wins, 10 second place finishes and two thirds in 38 starts going back five years. With jockey William Buick in the saddle, as is the case with Modern Games (IRE), Appleby has won seven of 13 races over the same period. One of those wins came in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, where Modern Games (IRE) went to post as the two to one favorite in a field of 14 and won pretty easily after breaking slowly. Making his debut as a 3-year-old this May, Modern Games (IRE) won the G2 Poule d'Essai des Poulains stakes at a mile then finished third and fifth before a facing older foes for the first time and finishing second in the G2 Sussex Stakes. With his four ™ Equibase Speed Figures this year being 125, 120, 119 and 119 and with only two other horses in the field (Shirl's Speight and Finest Sound (IRE)) having exceeded or tied the 110 figure threshold this year, Modern Games (IRE) seems very likely to add another win to Charles Appleby's record in North America.

Ivar (BRZ) ran as fast winning the 2020 Shadwell Turf Mile as Modern Games (IRE) has run in all his races this year, earning a 122 ™ figure. He nearly ran that fast in top company last November when third with a 117 figure in the Breeders' Cup Mile before taking eight months off. As if he has run just a month or two earlier and not eight months earlier, Ivar (BRZ) won his comeback in July when victorious in the Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes. Likely to improve significantly in his second start of 2022, Ivar (BRZ) can be expected to be putting in a strong later run and if Modern Games (IRE) isn't up to the task, he can earn the second Grade 1 win of his career.

Shirl's Speight won the Maker's Mark Mile this April, which was his third win and second stakes win in a row. He earned a 110 figure for that effort and although going off form a bit since then, has a chance to redeem himself here. One of those three races since was on dirt, a surface he has no fondness for, and the other was a seven furlong prep for this race over the course in July when fifth of 10 in the Connaught Cup Stakes. Since then Shirl's Speight put in an exceptional five furlong workout (:59.4, best of 46 on the day) which signals he's coming back to top form. Although his top form appears to be a bit short of the best form of Ivar (BRZ) and Modern Games (IRE), I wouldn't rule Shirl's Speight out as a contender in this race based on his tremendous Maker's Mark Mile effort earlier this year.

Finest Sound (IRE) has more second place finishes (five) than wins (four) in his career, but like Modern Games (IRE) he has been running with some of the best in Europe this year. He finished second in the Celebration Mile Stakes in his most recent race, earning a 116 figure, just shy of the 120 career-best earned in March when second in the Jebel Hatta Stakes and his regular rider, Andrea Atzeni, comes over from England to ride.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Get Smokin (110), Homer Screen (BRZ) (107), March to the Arch (113), Mighty Heart (105), Town Cruise (112), Wakanaka (IRE) (108) and War Bomber (IRE) (109).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Modern Games (IRE)
Ivar (BRZ)
Shirl's Speight
Finest Sound (IRE)

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, September 17 – Post Time 5:35 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Australia: World’s Top Rated Turf Sprinter Nature Strip Returns Down Under

While Labor Day marked the unofficial end of summer in the U.S., the Spring Racing “Carnival” in Sydney has just begun heating up. This Friday night, the world's highest-ranked turf sprinter Nature Strip and Australia's two best middle-distance horses, Anamoe and Zaaki, will contest a pair of top-quality Stakes races at Royal Randwick. First post is 9.40 p.m. Eastern / 6.40 p.m. Pacific

Nature Strip, Australian Horse of the Year for the second straight season, proved his credentials on the international stage with an electrifying victory in the King's Stand Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting in June. Trainer Chris Waller is one of only ten non-dignitaries from Australia invited to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth. Waller trained several horses for the deeply revered monarch, and the pair developed a special friendship which included weekly phone calls. The record-setting career of Waller's most famous horse, Winx, climaxed with the mare's 33rd consecutive victory – which came in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick – and the master trainer presented Her Majesty with one of Winx's shoes from the race. 

The Queen gave her permission for “Royal” to be officially added to Randwick's name during a 1992 visit. Thus, Nature Strip goes from a Royal meeting in England to a royally named racecourse in Australia.  The newly turned 8-year-old (the southern hemisphere season began on August 1st) is on a path to defend his crown in The Everest, the world's richest turf race, to be run at six furlongs on October 14 (US date/time). Friday night's prep race at 5-1/2 furlongs, The Shorts (Race 8), is a Group 2 race with a Group 1 cast – immediately after entries were taken, it was branded a “mini-Everest.” Nature Strip (3-2 favorite) meets his grand old rival Eduardo (5-2) for the 11th time, with the former holding a 6-4 edge. Eduardo is already underway this campaign, scoring two weeks ago in his first start as a 9-year-old! These illustrious evergreens will be challenged by the rising star of Australia's sprinting ranks, Mazu (6-1), whose five straight wins when last in work culminated in his first Group One success.   

As Nature Strip was collecting his second Horse of the Year award, Anamoe and Zaaki were honored as Champion 3-year-old Colt/Gelding and Champion Middle Distance Horse, respectively. The pair clash in Friday night's 7th race, the G1 George Main Stakes. Anamoe (6-5 favorite) and Zaaki (2-1) each won their seasonal debuts at seven furlongs, and step up to a mile against six other Group 1 winners. Duais (18-1) will find this assignment too short, but bears watching as second favorite in future book wagering for November's two-mile Melbourne Cup. 

Group One glamor aside, a personal highlight on the card will be the appearance in Race 2 of a horse named for yours truly: Microna (“Mic” as in microphone). His 42 starts have largely come at lesser venues with modest results, but he did venture to the “big smoke” two weeks ago and finished 2nd. Alas, “seconditis” has plagued Microna, as his record of 42:4-13-5 will attest. Thus, I recommend investing in the place pool!

The Randwick card (AUS-A) will be broadcast live on FanDuel TV this Friday night (First Post: 9.40 p.m. ET / 6.40 p.m. PT) alongside cards from Gold Coast (AUS-B), Newcastle (AUS-C) and Belmont (AUS-D). All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World Appskyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpiresXpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWagerHPIbet, and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to live-streaming, past performances and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com. 

About Michael Wrona

A native of Brisbane, Australia, Michael Wrona has called races in six countries. Michael's vast U.S. experience includes; race calling at Los Alamitos, Hollywood Park, Arlington and Santa Anita, calling the 2000 Preakness on a national radio network and the 2016 Breeders' Cup on the International simulcast network. Michael also performed a race call voiceover for a Seinfeld episode called The Subway.

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Cleveland’s Tom Rapps Wins Kentucky Downs’ King Of The Turf Handicapping Championship

Tom Rapps knows well that horse racing can be a game of inches. The 58-year-old from suburban Cleveland had to sweat out a pair of photo finishes determined by a nose, but luck fell his way to win the King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge with an aggregate total of $5,760.30 for the three-contest series on Kentucky Downs' races

“I had 80 bucks left with four races to go, and I hit two daily doubles,” Rapps said by phone Wednesday. “A $482 double in race six and seven, and then I put it all in on a daily double for the last two races – got myself over the top.”

Rapps won the third of the three standalone, live-money online contests with a bankroll of $5,709. Players had to compete in all three contests to be eligible to be crowned National Turf Handicapping Champion. The champ gets a seat at the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) with its $10,000 buy-in as well as the instantly iconic Global Tote King of the Turf Championship Belt patterned after boxing's world-championship belts.

Rapps will receive his Global Tote belt at the NHC awards dinner in Las Vegas. The 2023 NHC is set for March 10-12 at Horseshoe Las Vegas (formerly Bally's).

“Needless to say, I was very excited and happy to get a win,” Rapps said. “I'm really looking forward to obviously the cash, but more importantly, the belt. I'm trying to figure out where to put that in a prominent spot. I think it's fun. It's a great idea. It's a keepsake, right? You'll burn through the cash, but you'll aways have the belt.”

Rapps also received $11,550 as a cash prize and a berth in the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), along with hotel and airfare reimbursement up to $400, as the winner of the third tournament.

Jeff Bussan finished second at $5,319.37.

Rapps completely tapped out in the first contest, on opening day of the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs. He did only slightly better — $51.30 — in the second contest on Labor Day. But the photos started falling his way in the final competition, which started last Sunday and was carried over to Tuesday because of a weather postponement following the second race.

Even with his bankroll down to $80 after five of nine races Tuesday, Rapps said he felt he still had a shot.

“I wanted to give myself a chance,” he said. “I felt pretty good if I could hit that daily double and get $400 or $500, I thought, 'All right, that'll give me a chance to at least take a swing for the win.' I was fortunate enough to hit. Then I really liked that 1 horse in the eighth race, and I then I figured out what I thought it would take to get to $5,500 — what I thought it would take to win the tournament. I put $275 on the 1-12 and had a couple of other plays as backups. My goal was to finish in the top five and get an NHC or BCBC seat. And it worked out.”

And was just a little nerve-racking along the way.

Danse Macabre won the sixth race, the $500,000 Ainsworth Untapable Stakes, by a nose over favored Alluring Angel. When Freedom Speaks won the $500,000 Nelson's Green Brier Tennessee Whiskey Music City Stakes by a head over Happy Soul, Rapps had a $20 double that reaped $24.10 for a $1.

No. 1 Adventuring led all the way to take the eighth race, the $550,000 AGS Ladies Marathon by 1 1/2 lengths. But Rapps was back to sweating out a photo in the nightcap, with No. 12 Sabalenka nosing out Safeen with the $1 double paying $20.76. He had a $275 bet, netting $5,654.

“It seemed like it took forever to make that race official,” he said.

Rapps said he'd never competed in either the NHC or the BCBC.

“So I'm really pleased to get those things off my horseplayer's bucket list,” he said.

Rapps, who is in building materials sale, said he's “always liked horses” but re-engaged with online handicapping tournaments during the height of COVID.

“I really picked it up seriously the last couple of years,” he said.

It was the first time Rapps played in the King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge. “I thought I'd give it shot,” he said. “You have to be willing go all in. You can't be worried about keeping a few hundred dollars. You have to give yourself a shot, and I was willing to do that. That was my goal: to have a shot going into the last race. For once it worked out.”

Rapps said his favorite track was Keeneland, but now it's Kentucky Downs.

“Yes, it is,” he said with a laugh. “My new favorite track.”

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‘Unscratched Horse’ Runs Second At Mountaineer; Officials Working To Update Protocols

Nearly ten months after the unsatisfactory outcome of Modern Games winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf as a “purse money only” runner, another confusing and frustrating incident involving an error left a sour taste amongst multi-race bettors.

On Tuesday, Sept. 6, at Mountaineer Park, pre-race changes were announced for the card that included the scratching of #5 Holly Roller in the night's third race.

According to Equibase's website which tracked the changes, Holly Roller was reported as scratched with the sport's official data provider at 6:19 P.M.

The first race at Mountaineer was scheduled for 7:00 P.M., and it also started the early pick four, covering the first four race winners that night. More than $35,000 was staked on the pick four by the time the pools closed at approximately 7:01, when the first race jumped.

There was just one problem – Holly Roller was not supposed to be scratched for the third race.

According to Joe Moore, Executive Director of the West Virginia Racing Commission, in the normal course of their duties the stewards at Mountaineer Park relayed a third race scratch of #6 The Good Flower to the track's clerk of scales.

Following normal procedure, the clerk then reported scratches to the mutuels department, which triggers updates to all downstream wagering recipients.

Moore told the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF) the clerk erroneously recorded the scratching as #5 Holly Roller and not #6 The Good Flower. The error cascaded through all betting platforms and to Equibase.

The public was not made fully aware that Holly Roller was going to run in the third race until several minutes after the first race was run, an occurrence which rightly angered some customers whose pick four bets were already locked-in.

Equibase's website reported the corrected scratch at 7:07 P.M. An image of the Equibase website reflecting the changes from September 6 is published below.

Holly Roller was sent postward as the 9-5 second choice and finished second.

“Had the horse won,” Moore said, “Mountaineer Park was prepared to pay on 'all' given the mistaken scratch and the inability of customers to use that horse in their bets.”

“To avoid a recurrence, we have updated protocols in the reporting of scratches between officials to include the use of the name of the horse while also introducing some additional checks. Our goal is to make sure this does not happen again.”

PROTECTING CUSTOMERS BETTER

While Holly Roller did not win the race, her presence in the field is discouraging for pick four bettors, the vast majority of which believed the filly was not running in the sequence.

“There is almost no way any horseplayer would expect a horse that was scratched 40 minutes prior to the close of betting, and remained scratched at the close of betting, could actually be unscratched later, run and impact a race in any way,” said Patrick Cummings, TIF's Executive Director.

“The fairest outcome here would have been for the race to be treated as an 'all-win' for that leg of the pick four.

“While the race played-out harmlessly and the favorite won, decisions on how a multi-race bet will be paid out should be clear in advance to all customers. This incident highlights the fact that is not always the case. A horse that practically no one could use on their tickets ran in the race and had the chance to impact the final result.”

West Virginia generally adopts the Model Rules of Racing as maintained by the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI), which includes a series of wagering rules.

“There have been numerous examples in the last year that suggest rules need to be revisited and updated to better protect customers,” said Cummings.

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