Equibase Analysis: Limited Liability On The Improve Ahead Of Hill Prince

A field of 10 three year old males is entered for Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 Hill Prince Stakes at Aqueduct, one of just a few big races left in the year on grass which is restricted to 3-year-olds.

Leading the field in terms of earnings is Grand Sonata ($516,000), who won the G3 Kitten's Joy Stakes this past winter and most recently finished second in the G3 Dueling Grounds Derby. Mackinnon can surpass that one with the $165K winner's share of the purse as he's made $360,000 in his career, most if it last year when third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He is making his third start of the year and moves to the barn of North American leading trainer Chad Brown, who also saddles Unanimous Consent (GB), winner of the Woodhaven Stakes in April and most recently third in the G3 Virginia Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair, consisting of the aforementioned Grand Sonata as well as Be Better, who is trying turf for the first time and who finishes last of eight in the Curlin Stakes in July when last seen. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey also enters two horses here in the form of Celestial City and Limited Liability. Celestial City enters the race off an allowance win versus older and prior to that finished second in the G3 Saranac Stakes, while Limited Liability was a fast closing third in the G3 Virginia Derby last month.

St Anthony won the Alcatraz Stakes in May and followed that up with a win in the Robert Dupret Derby in August but has finished eighth and fourth in two stakes starts since then. Wicked Fast has finished fifth and sixth in his two stakes tries so is trying to prove he belongs at the level. Similarly, Constitutionlawyer is making his first stakes try on turf. Nantasket Beach rounds out the field, moving way up in class into stakes company off a maiden win last month.

Top Contenders

Limited Liability continues a pattern of improvement which began in April when he made his 3-year-old debut following six months off. Coming back in a full field of 12 on grass at Keeneland, Limited Liability put in a visually impressive rally from last of 12 with a quarter mile to go and won by a neck at the finish. Moving right up into stakes competition, Limited Liability finished third in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, improving from a 92 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in his comeback to a 96 figure. Improving once again the following month to 105 even though seventh in the Belmont Derby, Limited Liability ran very well when rallying from last of 10 to finish third in the Virginia Derby last month, even though running five paths wide in the stretch and being squeezed with about an eighth of a mile to run. That effort earned a career-best 107 figure. Jose Ortiz is the only jockey Limited Liability has ever known and rides back and if Ortiz can settle the colt in back in the early stages and find a clear path to run in the lane they could sweep past the field to win this year's Hill Prince Stakes.

Unanimous Consent (GB) won the first three starts of his career, all on turf, from September of last year through this April. The third of those wins came in the Woodhaven Stakes over this course, which at the time earned the colt a career-best 85 ™ figure. One month later he finished fourth in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, a length behind third place finisher Limited Liability. Following that, in the Virginia Derby once again Unanimous Consent (GB) finished behind Limited Liability, but just by a neck this time, earning the same 107 figure in the process. As he is on the same pattern for further improvement as Limited Liability and has proven competitive in similar top 3-year-old turf races, Unanimous Consent (GB) could be a strong contender here.

Celestial City has not faced his stablemate Limited Liability (also from the McGaughey barn) all year, until now, and his last race 99 figure is short of the 107 both Limited Liability and Unanimous Consent (GB) earned in their most recent starts. Just the same, with the ground saving rail and only having been worse than third twice in eight races, Celestial City must be respected as a strong contender in the Hill Prince Stakes. That is because his two best races are his last two and both came after adding blinkers. The first of those was a second place finish to five length winner Annapolis in the Saranac Stakes on September 3, a race from which Annapolis returned from to win the Coolmore Turf Mile two weeks ago. The second was when moving from stakes to allowance competition just three weeks after the Saranac, resulting in a confidence building win and improving from a 91 figure in the Saranac to 99. Jose Lezcano rides once more and from the ground saving rail Celestial City could be in a better position than his deep closing stablemate Limited Liability so could be in front early in the stretch with a chance to hang on.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Be Better (95), Constitutionlawyer (92), Grand Sonata (108), Mackinnon (108), Nantasket Beach (85), St Anthony (96) and Wicked Fast (99).

Top Win Contenders:
Limited Liability
Unanimous Consent (GB)
Celestial City

Other contenders for exotic wagers such as the exacta:
Grand Sonata
Mackinnon

Hill Prince Stake – Grade 2
Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct)
Saturday, September 22 – Post Time 3:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

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Fort Erie: Closing Day Rescheduled For Oct. 24

After receiving all necessary approvals, Fort Erie Race Track announces the rescheduled closing day for the 2022 racing reason. The final day of racing for the year will be held on Monday, October 24, beginning at 12:25 p.m.

The event will also be Fort Erie's fan appreciation day. Fans will receive free Fort Erie programs, and prizes will be given away between the races.

There will also be a mandatory payout of over $11,000 in the Jackpot hi5 pool in the final race on Monday.

Fort Erie cancelled racing on Tuesday, October 18 for the safety of the horses and riders, when persistent rain left the track in unfavorable racing conditions.

For more information, visit www.forterieracing.com

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Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: With So Many Handicaps, Weight Matters

Nearly all the races in Hong Kong are handicaps and there can be as much as a 20-pound weight spread in each race. As horses do well and move up in class, they have to face better company but usually get in light. Weight is a gigantic handicapping factor.

When you examine past performances, the weight assigned is accurate unless an apprentice rider is in it. The apprentice allowance claim ranges from 10 pounds to two pounds. The newest riders to Hong Kong start out with a 10-pound allowance claim but the fact that they are new to Hong Kong does not mean they are new to horse racing.

The Hong Kong Apprentice Jockey School has been developing young riding talent for 50 years. (To read more about it click here.) They identify young riders, school them and then the best ones get their chance to race overseas. If successful, they can be invited back and participate in Hong Kong racing.

Unlike apprentice riders in America, who are truly beginning their career and thus lack experience, the apprentice riders in Hong Kong have the benefit of having proven themselves overseas. Victor Wong had 1,091 starts and won 120 races before coming back to Hong Kong; Jerry Chau had 547 rides and 77 wins.

To start off, new riders to Hong Kong receive a 10-pound allowance claim until they win 20 races. They then receive seven pounds for their next 25 wins and five pounds for their next 50 wins. After they win 95 races, their mounts will still receive two pounds.

The latest apprentice rider to make the grade is 26-year-old Angus Chung. He has been allocated to Tony Cruz after riding in south Australia where he won 76 races from 689 rides. He gets the full 10-pound claiming allowance and looks to be a major force in the upcoming months.

Under the process of acclimatization, he is riding only races at Sha Tin and Happy Valley barrier trials. When the stewards decide that he has enough experience, he will be allowed to ride the seven-furlong Happy Valley turf course which can be quirky for newcomers. No worries; this young man can ride.

For an example of how well Angus Chung can ride, and how important 10 pounds can matter, go back and watch the replay of race five on Oct. 1 at Sha Tin. In the class 4 Nanning Handicap going 1600 meters, Oscar Glory was assigned 131 pounds. But with Chung riding, he only carried 121. So, instead of being the third highest weighted runner at 131, he was the co-ninth highest weighted runner at 121.

Chung put Oscar Glory on the lead and covered the first 400 meters in only 25.22 seconds. Riding like an experienced veteran, he kept his advantage and began to separate with his second 400 meters run in a faster 23.52 seconds. He cruised around the turn in 22.75 while he rode high in the saddle with his legs apart.

When the expected challenges materialized, he sat down and got to work. What was especially impressive was that his balance never changed when he went to left-hand encouragement. In perfect unison with Oscar Glory, Chung held on by a half-length. Oscar Glory covered his last 1,200 meters in 1:09.61 seconds and even expanded his lead on the gallop out. His final time was .27 seconds faster than standard but his rating only went up five points so at 59, he can face class 4 again.

At his new rating of 59, Oscar Glory will probably be assigned 134 pounds next time out but with Chung aboard, it's almost unfair that he will carry 124 pounds and will get weight from higher-rated rivals. But that is the beauty of the Hong Kong apprentice system. The young riders go overseas to get experience, then come home to favorable circumstances with huge weight advantages.

As bettors, be aware that apprentice jockeys in Hong Kong nullify most of the weight factor in handicapping. When you couple that with a rider of Chung's talent, and the mentorship of Tony Cruz, it can be a winning combination.

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Poor Weather Forces Fort Erie To Cancel Tuesday’s Closing Day Program; Seeks To Reschedule

Fort Erie Race Track in Ontario, Canada, announced that racing for Tuesday, October 18, is cancelled due to poor weather and track conditions. It was the scheduled final day of racing for the 2022 season.

For the safety of the riders and horses, the 10th race on Monday's card was cancelled due to deteriorating track conditions from heavy rain and hail. Persistent rain throughout Monday night and into Tuesday has left the track in unsafe racing conditions.

Pending regulatory approvals, Fort Erie Race Track is working to re-schedule the cancelled races for October 24 or 25, and will make an announcement when dates are confirmed.

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