Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Mother Goose Stakes at Aqueduct's Belmont at the Big A meet features a compact field of seven 3-year-old fillies, including five stakes winners.
In terms of wins in graded stakes, Defining Purpose should be listed first as she won the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes in April, as well as the G3 Indiana Oaks in July, although since then finished a non-threatening third in August and then fifth in September. Foggy Night won the G3 Delaware Oaks in July and the Catherine Sophia Stakes in August before a poor sixth place effort last month in the G1 Cotillion Stakes. Occult won the G3 Monmouth Oaks in July and wasn't disgraced in her most recent race when third in the Cotillion in September. Then there's Xigera, who although winless in three graded stakes tries, won both the Tepin Stakes in July as well as the Seneca Overnight Stakes last month.
Undervalued Asset showed she belonged at the level when second in the G3 Charles Town Oaks in August but then was a non-threatening fifth in the G2 Gallant Bloom Stakes at Aqueduct four weeks ago. Additionally, Undervalued Asset is running in a two-turn race for the first time. Julia Shining won the G2 Demoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct last December and ran well when third in the Ashland this spring but most recently was ninth of 10 in the G1 Alabama Stakes. Peak Popularity rounds out the field, running in a stakes race for the first time and bringing a one for five career record into the race.
Main win contenders
Xigera started her career on the grass last summer and ran very well, first with a runner-up effort then with a strong win by nearly six lengths. Moving to dirt for the first time last fall, Xigera ran in the G1 Alcibiades Stakes but after pressing the pacesetter in second for most of the race, faded to fourth in the final sixteenth of a mile. After a last of 14 finish when back on turf for the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Xigera was given seven months off and returned stronger than the previous year, first winning at a mile on grass then winning the Tepin Stakes after stalking the pacesetter in second.
After a poor effort in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational with a perfect excuse as the turf was soggy, Xigera moved back to dirt for the Seneca Stakes on dirt. That was by far a career-best effort where she earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure, stalking the pacesetter in second for the first seven furlongs then moving quickly to lead by three lengths in the stretch, before extending that margin to six lengths and reported to cross the wire “under wraps,” suggesting she could run even better in this, her next start. Before leaving trainer Philip Bauer's base in Kentucky, Xigera put in a strong workout which was the best of 27 on the day Oct. 13, and she brings along jockey Julian Leparoux, who has ridden the filly to all four of her wins to date. Considering she has the ability to stalk whoever leads early, or to go for the lead if no other horse goes to the front from the start, Xigera is the one to beat in this year's Mother Goose Stakes.
Julia Shining demonstrated a lot of talent last fall in the first two starts of her career, first winning a seven-furlong race then only in the second start of her career stretching out to the nine-furlong distance of the Mother Goose to win the important Demoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct. After a few months off, Julia Shining began her run for the Kentucky Oaks with a third-place effort in the Suncoast Stakes this winter then was only beaten three-quarters of a length in the G1 Ashland Stakes (by Defining Purpose), earning a career-best 99 figure in the process. However, Julia Shining did not have the necessary points to enter the starting gate for the Oaks so she took some time off.
Returning to race in August, Julia Shining ran in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes but finished ninth of 10 and never threatened. Now back at the track and distance of her Demoiselle victory and having shown she belongs at this level, Julia Shining could be a strong contender by repeating any of her four efforts previous to the Alabama.
Occult began to show a lot of promise when winning by four lengths in her first route race last December, then following that up with a win in the Busanda Stakes in January at the distance of the Mother Goose, and at Aqueduct. She returned in the G3 Gazelle Stakes three months later but only managed fifth, then after a two-month rest finished third in the G1 Acorn Stakes. Her second start off the layoff was significantly better, as Occult won the Monmouth Oaks by 10 lengths with a 99 figure.
Moving up in class to the Cotillion Stakes in September, Occult found herself last of nine after a half-mile had been run over a sloppy track, and although she valiantly rallied she only managed to finish third at the end. The 97 figure was pretty good considering the track conditions and, like Julia Shining, as Occult is returning to the track and distance where she has a stakes win previously, returning to top form to win this year's Mother Goose Stakes seems within her reach.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Defining Purpose (100), Foggy Night (97), Peak Popularity (89) and Undervalued Asset (98).
Win Contenders, in preference order
Xigera
Julia Shining
Occult
Mother Goose Stakes – Grade 2, $250,000
Saturday Oct. 28 – Race 8 at Belmont at the Big A; Post Time 3:48 p.m. ET
1 1/8 Miles, 3-Year-Old Fillies
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Xigera Eyes Third Stakes Win Of 2023 In Mother Goose appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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