HISA By The Numbers: Crop Violations Found In Less Than 1 Percent Of Starts

It may feel to the casual observer as though crop violations have made news left and right since the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act's first round of regulations went into effect on July 1. Data presented by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority this week suggests that they're actually quite uncommon.

Ann McGovern, HISA director of racetrack safety, provided the statistics alongside racetrack safety standing committee chair Dr. Sue Stover at this week's 48th Annual Global Symposium on Racing in Tuscon, Ariz.

When looking races run between July 1 and Oct. 31, Authority stewards found whip use violations in less than 1 percent of the total number of starts taking place around the country during that time. When the data was broken down by week, the average offense rate had dropped closer to .5% of total starts. Among those riders receiving whip use violations thus far, 64% have had only one violation, with very few receiving three or more.

“The take-home message is that once a jockey has a violation … they learn from the process,” said Stover.

Authority staff also ran some numbers to see whether the new whip use regulations were changing race outcomes. They examined average winning times by race distance (in furlongs) for the same period of July through October in 2021 and 2022, testing the hypothesis that fewer allowed strikes would result in slower finishing times. At most distances, there was no statistically significant difference in the finish times between 2021 and 2022; in a couple of longer-distance categories, times this year were actually slightly faster.

Then, the team looked at the finish position of horses who were favored at the start of a race. Again, they found no statistically significant difference in those average finish positions.

The team also presented some limited data from its first few months of a national voided claim policy.

When broken out by claiming price, horses running for a $5,000 tag had more voided claims under the new policy than other price points, with between 40 and 45 voided claims so far at that price. The HISA void claim policy requires claims be voided if a horse is determined unsound in the test barn, experiences epistaxis, or has a post-race medication violation. These conditions are in addition to the policies many tracks already had in place voiding a claim in case of a horse dying on the track or being vanned off. Some states had void claim policies prior to July 1, while others had none.

McGovern cautioned that there isn't yet enough data on void claims to draw broad conclusions on what it means about soundness.

“What this is showing you is that the largest number of [voided] claims by price is in the $5,000 range,” said McGovern. “This chart alone may not tell us a lot more than what we'd expect to see. When we look at this over a period of time we want to look at this as a percentage of claims in proportion to the number of races run in that category. We don't have enough data to do that as well as we'd like to right now.”

Stover added that the majority of claims that have been voided so far around the country were due to post-race unsoundness, with epistaxis as the second most common reason.

Read our previous reporting about void claim policies here.

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FanDuel TV’s Weekend Coverage Features Openings Of Oaklawn, Los Al

The racing season at Oaklawn Park will begin on Friday featuring the return of popular juvenile Tyler's Tribe in the $150,000 Advent Stakes and FanDuel TV will be live from Hot Springs with complete coverage of the winter meet.

Tyler's Tribe, one of the feel-good horse racing stories of 2022, was undefeated in his first five career starts before being eased in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). The Iowa-bred gelding will have regular rider Kylee Jordan aboard and has been tabbed as the 3-5 morning line favorite in the field of nine juveniles.

FanDuel TV's Gabby Gaudet will be on-site throughout the weekend with analysis and interviews. Saturday's card includes a pair of stakes races – the $150,000 Mistletoe Stakes and the $150,000 Ring the Bell Stakes. The 68-day Oaklawn Park meet will feature 45 stakes races throughout the season including the $1.25 Arkansas Derby (GI), a key prep race for the Kentucky Derby, on April 1.

Los Alamitos will kick off its six-day Thoroughbred meet on Friday and Saturday's racing will feature the $300,000 Starlet Stakes (GI) and FanDuel TV's Todd Schrupp, Mike Joyce, Christina Blacker and Scott Hazelton will be on-site with exclusive interviews, analysis and expert selections.

Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Starlet Stakes (GI) eight times and will be trying for his sixth consecutive victory in the race when he saddles three contenders in the seven-horse field on Friday – Doinitthehardway, Faiza and Fast and Shiny. Faiza will be ridden by Flavien Prat and steps up to stakes competition for the first time after breaking her maiden in her debut at Del Mar in November.

In addition to racing from Oaklawn Park and Los Alamitos , FanDuel TV will also be featuring Laurel Park, Gulfstream and more.

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Equibase Analysis: Doinitthehardway Going For First Win In Starlet Stakes

The Grade 1 Starlet Stakes brings together a field of seven 2-year-old fillies hoping to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” and stamp themselves as horses to watch in 2023. There are no stakes winners in this group, with the best finish in a stakes belonging to Uncontrollable when second in the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at the distance of the Starlet in October. Blessed Touch was also second in a stakes race, the non-graded Desi Arnaz Stakes last month, run at the shorter distance of seven furlongs.

Then there's a trio of talented 2-year-old fillies trained by Bob Baffert, two of which are running in a two-turn race for the first time. One of those is Faiza, who won at first asking four weeks ago. The other is Fast and Shiny, who moves to dirt after fourth- and sixth-place finishes on turf. The last of the Baffert trio is Doinitthehardway, who has run three times without winning, most recently when second in her first two-turn try a couple of weeks ago. Pride of the Nile also moves from turf to dirt, bringing a two race winning streak into the Starlet. Classymademoiselle rounds out the field. She has run six times, winning once, that victory coming after losing by a nose but being moved up when the winner was disqualified.

Top contenders:

Doinitthehardway is the only horse in the field that has yet to win a race, but still may be a standout in this field. In her debut back in August at five furlongs, the filly battled head-and-head early, opened up a bit on the turn then was clearly second by many lengths over the third horse. Sent to post as the heavy favorite for her second start, in September and also a sprint, she showed little interest early when sixth and checked in a well-beaten third. Given 10 weeks off, Doinitthehardway was stretched out to a mile for her most recent race on November 25 and ran second from start to finish in a very fast race in which the winner led every step of the way. Doinitthehardway ended up one length behind the winner and was 13 lengths clear of the next horse, earning a stakes quality 99 Equibase Speed Figure, which is many lengths faster than the best figure earned by any horse in this field.

Looking at an interesting Race Lens statistic related to Baffert in similar situations, going back five years horses under Baffert's care that are making their second route start after being away for 45 days or more win nearly 30% of the time and actually show a small (12%) flat bet profit on win bets. Given that this filly is likely to improve both physically and mentally off the experience of a two-turn race last month and that she gets the rail to save ground throughout, it appears Doinitthehardway can break her maiden in this year's Starlet Stakes.

Blessed Touch romped in her second career start back in October when victorious by nearly nine lengths, earning a career-best 90 figure in the process. Moving up in class into a stakes race last month, Blessed Touch rallied from fourth to finish second to one of the rising stars in the division, Justique. Trying two turns for the first time is of no concern as the other two foals of her dam have won route races, and trainer Tim Yakteen won the Santa Anita Derby this past spring with Taiba when stretching that colt out from a sprint to a route.

Faiza has a few obstacles facing her as she's only run once and never around two turns nor in a stakes. Nevertheless she could have a say in the outcome because she's another Baffert trainee and the trainer has a very strong record in 2-year-old stakes going back five years when stretching out from a sprint to a route off just a maiden win. In 10 races over that period, Baffert's starters have won four and finished second in two other races with this history. Given Faiza stretches out off a sprint in which she led after a half-mile and coasted home, there is little doubt jockey Flavien Prat is going to do anything else other than let her roll early and then play “come catch me” with the rest of the field. She earned an 84 figure in her debut so there is lots of room to improve but going from that level to the 99 Doinitthehardway achieved in her last start may be a difficult task.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Classymademoiselle (74), Fast and Shiny (83), Pride of the Nile (81) and Uncontrollable (85).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Doinitthehardway

Blessed Touch

Faiza

Starlet Stakes – Grade 1, $300,000
1 1/16 Miles
2-Year-Old Fillies
Race 9 at Los Alamitos Race Course
Saturday, December 10, 2022 – Post Time 7:30 p.m. ET


Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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Heavy Fog Forces Cancelation Of Final Four Races On Charles Town’s Wednesday Card

Charles Town Races in West Virginia canceled the final four races of its Wednesday night card after heavy fog rolled into the Charles Town area, leading to severely limited visibility.

The track is scheduled to resume live racing on Thursday night with a nine-race card, beginning at its standard first race post time of 7:00 P.M. ET.

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