Equibase Analysis: Nakatomi And Taiba Square Off In Grade 1 Malibu

A field of nine 3-year-olds is expected to run in the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes, the traditional opening day feature of the Santa Anita winter-spring meeting in Arcadia, Calif.

It is a strong group, led by two-time Grade 1 winner Taiba, trained by Bob Baffert and coming into the race off a third-place finish behind Flightline in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic. Baffert also trains Messier, who won the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February before a runner-up effort behind Taiba in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, but who has only 15th- and 11th-place finishes since that race.

Nakatomi is another strong contender, having won the Bowman Mill Stakes in 2021 as a 2-year-old and coming into the race off a strong win at the slightly shorter distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. Forbidden Kingdom won the G2 San Vicente Stakes in January over the track at the distance of the Malibu. He returned from nearly six months off this fall and was third in his most recent race.

Perfect Flight just won the Zia Park Derby last month and hopes to do as well at this higher class level. Straight No Chaser and Strava both won allowance races in their most recent starts and are hoping to step up into graded stakes competition and compete effectively. Apprehend was second behind Perfect Flight in the Zia Park Derby and may be a factor with these horses. Hoist the Gold rounds out the field, coming into the race off a fourth-place effort in the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes last month and a runner-up finish in the Perryville Stakes prior to that.

Win contender:

Nakatomi enters this year's Malibu off a career-best effort at a similar distance last month at Keeneland. In that allowance/optional claiming race Nakatomi relaxed in third in the early stages off a fast pace and waited until the field straightened for home. Zipping clear by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to run, he held off the much more mature 6-year-old Endorsed, who has earned more than $700,000 in his career. That effort earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure, which matches up nicely with the top contenders in the field and it is likely to be improved upon as this will be his third start since returning from a three-month layoff near the end of September. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has ridden Nakatomi to his last three wins, comes in from Florida to ride. It is important to note trainer Wesley Ward shipped Nakatomi in from his home base in Kentucky a couple of weeks back to get him familiar with the Santa Anita surface, giving him two very nice five-furlong workouts which sets the horse up for a new career-best effort good enough to win the Malibu.

Forbidden Kingdom will be the horse Nakatomi, as well as the other eight, have to catch to win. This is because in all eight of his races to date, Forbidden Kingdom has led after a quarter mile. He's won three of those rather easily including the similar San Vicente Stakes last January with a then career-best 106 Equibase figure. After winning the two-turn San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita this past March, Forbidden Kingdom was a poor sixth in the Santa Anita Derby behind Taiba.

Rested nearly six months and allowed to mature, Forbidden Kingdom returned in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship versus older horses for the first time but faded to fifth after battling head-and-head for the opening half-mile on very fast fractions. Returning on Nov. 20, once again Forbidden Kingdom got the early lead, this time holding it until mid-stretch when he was passed by a pair of older runners and ended up third. Since then he's put in some scintillating morning drills that suggest Juan Hernandez, the only jockey who has ever ridden the colt, will put him on the lead where he can relax nicely. From there on out it just may be a matter of holding on, and if Forbidden Kingdom improves off his last race 107 figure he may do just that.

Taiba is likely to be the heavy favorite in this year's Malibu based on his third-place finish last month in the Breeders' Cup Classic. That effort earned a career-best 115 figure – the best in the field. Prior to that against his own age group (as he's facing in the Malibu) Taiba won the G1 Pennsylvania Derby with a 114 figure. Since winning his debut in March at six furlongs, Taiba has only raced in two-turn races but considering how he's been training Taiba must be respected as a contender to win this race. We should also note Taiba is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won this race twice in the past four years (McKinzie in 2018 and Charlatan in 2020).

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Apprehend (104), Hoist the Gold (105), Messier (107), Perfect Flight (101), Straight No Chaser (101) and Strava (105).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Nakatomi

Forbidden Kingdom

Taiba

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1, $300,000, 3-Year-Olds, 7 Furlongs

Race 10 at Santa Anita

Monday, Dec. 26, 2022 – Post Time 6:30 p.m. ET


Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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FanDuel TV Live On Site For Santa Anita’s Opening Day Monday; Jockey Cam, Drone Shots Planned

Santa Anita's prestigious winter meet kicks off on Monday, Dec. 26, and FanDuel TV will bring live coverage of every race, every day into the homes of horse racing fans across the country. The stakes-laden opening day card is highlighted by the $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes (G1) where multiple Grade 1 winner Taiba will square off against eight rivals to close out his 3-year-old campaign.

TVG's Todd Schrupp, Mike Joyce, Britney Eurton, Scott Hazelton, Simon Bray and Kurt Hoover will be reporting live from Arcadia, Calif., throughout the day with exclusive interviews, analysis and features. Monday's eleven-race card includes six graded stakes races – the $200,000 San Gabriel Stakes (G2), the $200,000 San Antonio Stakes (G2), the $200,000 San Mathis Mile (G2), the $300,000 La Brea Stakes (G1), the $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes (G1), and the $300,000 American Oaks (G1).

The popular Jockey Cam technology will be utilized throughout the meet and FanDuel TV's coverage will also include the deployment of the drone camera to provide viewers additional perspective on the races.

International superstar jockey Franke Dettori will be spending the winter at Santa Anita and has been named on five mounts on Monday's opening day card. He is scheduled to ride the 2021 Dubai World Cup champion Country Grammer in the $200,000 San Antonio Stakes (G2). Trained by Bob Baffert, the 5-year-old son of Tonalist has been installed as the 7-5 morning line favorite in the six-horse field.

Santa Anita's meet will run through June 18 and the track will host a total of 93 stakes races, 58 of which are graded, including the Santa Anita Handicap (March 4), the Beholder Mile (March 11), and the Santa Anita Derby (April 8).

Monday will also mark the beginning of Gulfstream Park's annual Championship Meet. FanDuel TV's Caton Bredar, Larry Collmus and Andie Biancone will be live from Florida with exclusive interviews, behind-the-scenes access and expert analysis throughout the ten-race card. This year, the Jockey Cam will be used throughout the meet.

The Championship Meet runs through April and features premier racing including the Pegasus World Cup (Jan. 28) as well as key Kentucky Derby prep races such as the Holy Bull (Feb. 4), Fountain of Youth (March 4), and the Florida Derby (April 1).

Also on Monday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby will continue at Fair Grounds with the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes. Jace's Road has been tabbed as the morning line favorite at odds of 3-1 in the field of seven for trainer Brad Cox and will be ridden by Florent Geroux.

In addition to racing from Santa Anita and Gulfstream, TV will also be featuring Oaklawn, Laurel Park and more.

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Santa Anita’s $7,500 Online ‘Showvivor’ Back For Opening Day

Santa Anita's popular free online “Showvivor” will again be available to players everywhere beginning Opening Day, Monday, Dec. 26. Fans can play for free at santaanita.com/contests.

Additionally, beginning Saturday, Dec. 31, Santa Anita's $18,000 Santa Anita Pick 'Em Contest returns. An online contest that mixes popular sports props including horse racing and football, Santa Anita Pick 'Em will be offered every Saturday and Sunday with $500 in prize money paid to the top winner each day.

To sign up and for additional details regarding Santa Anita Pick 'Em, please visit santaanita.com/pickem.

With special early first post time for an 11-race card on Opening Day at 11 a.m., fans are encouraged to register to play at showvivor.santaanita.com prior to first post time. The contest offers players a variety of cash incentives, highlighted by the $2,500 top prize, which will be awarded to the longest “Show Streak” over the course of Santa Anita's Classic and Spring Meet, which will conclude on June 18.

Players can select one horse from one race each racing day. That horse must run no worse than third in order for the player to “Showvive.” If the player's selection fails to run 1-2-3, that individual is not totally eliminated, as he or she may start up a new streak the next racing day. The player with the longest Show Streak on June 18 will be declared the top prize winner of $2,500.

Fans are advised the longest Show Streak is just one of six separate ways to win beginning Dec. 26.

SHOW STREAK The player that has the longest “show” of no-worse than third place finish streak at the end of the Classic Meet will win the Grand Prize of $2,500. If a player fails to make an online selection on a given race day, their streak is still alive, but they will not be given credit for any days missed.

WIN STREAK This carries a $1,000 prize and is intended to reward players who have selected the most consecutive first place finishers. If a player fails to make a selection on a given day, his or her streak may continue, but the player will not receive credit for any days missed.

TOTAL WINS On closing day, June 18, the player that has selected the most total wins will receive a $500 prize.

HIGHEST SINGLE WIN PAYOUT This carries a $500 prize and will be awarded to the player wit the single highest win payout (on a Two Dollar wager) over the course of the entire meet.

TOTAL WIN EARNINGS This is a Showvivor category which also carries a $500 prize and is awarded to the player that accumulates the highest total dollar amount-won based on their selections at the end of the meet. For example, each time an entrant's selection finishes in first place in the official standings (Wins), the dollar amount, based on Santa Anita's official Two Dollar Win payout, will be added to that player's total money-won to date. The winner will be determined on closing day.

MONTHLY CONTEST, NEW WAY TO WIN Separated into five different date ranges, beginning Dec. 26 through Jan. 31, and ending June 3 through June 18, the winner, by Total Monthly win Earnings, of each of these individual calendar periods earns an entry into the next $500 Live Money Handicapping Contest via Xpressbet and thus an opportunity to compete for more cash and prizes. No exchanges are offered.

Entries for Opening Day, Monday, Dec. 26, are now available at santaanita.com. For additional information on ShowVivor, please visit santaanita.com or call (626) 574-RACE.

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FanDuel Becomes First U.S. Sports Book To Offer Single Account For Sports Betting, Racing Wagers

FanDuel, the premier online gaming company in North America, announced that its customers can access both parimutuel wagering on horse racing and traditional sports book wagering with a single account after a successful soft launch last week. With this launch, FanDuel Sportsbook becomes the first US sportsbook to offer this feature. The measure is part of FanDuel's ongoing investment in customer experience and its continuing commitment to introduce a new generation of audiences to horse racing.

Users will be able to wager on and stream racing coverage from FanDuel TV and other racing content for which FanDuel has wagering rights. In addition to live horse racing throughout the year from top tracks across the country, FanDuel Sportsbook customers will also be able to wager on the Kentucky Derby for the first time through the integrated platform in 2023.

Prior to this innovation, sportsbook customers were required to open a separate account and maintain a separate wallet for parimutuel wagering on horse racing, at FanDuel Racing or TVG.com. The merged wallet/single account feature is currently available for FanDuel customers in New York, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, West Virginia, Wyoming, Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia. FanDuel plans to expand it to additional states early next year.

“Horse racing is a big part of our DNA,” said Amy Howe the CEO of FanDuel Group. “This is a significant opportunity to expose a broader, engaged audience to the sport in a familiar environment.”

Horse racing is a popular offering for Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel Group's parent company, across its sportsbooks in the United Kingdom and Australia.

Earlier this year, the FanDuel launched FanDuel TV, re-branding its TVG network, which focused almost exclusively on horse racing, and adding more sports and sports betting content, including NFL-focused “Up & Adams” with Kay Adams, “Run It Back” with Michele Beadle and Shams Charania, along with “More Ways To Win” featuring Lisa Kerney. FanDuel TV broadcasts racing from Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keeneland, Gulfstream Park and several other major US and international racing venues.

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