Equibase Analysis: Freedom Trail Gets Slight Edge In Hill Prince

A field of nine 3-year-olds is entered for Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Hill Prince Stakes on the turf at Aqueduct, with one more entered should the race be moved to the main track. Six of the nine entered for turf won their most recent race and the other three finished second or third in their last start, leading to the immediate conclusion this is a well-matched group.

Trainer Chad Brown has a trio of entrants in this race consisting of Equitize (GB), Faraday and I'm Very Busy. Although all three won their most recent races, the first two are running in a stakes race for the first time and the latter hasn't run in a stakes in 2023 but did finish second in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes in the fall of 2022.

There are a few other horses proven at the level in the field and that group is led by Grade 3 Virginia Derby winner Integration, who has been away from the races for two months since that victory. Freedom Trail won the Awad Stakes in October, 2022 over the course and although winless in six races since enters the Hill Prince off a neck defeat in his most recent race.

Classic Catch has been entered in turf races twice in a row but both were moved to the dirt due to weather. His most recent effort was when second in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational last month so he appears to have the class to compete at this level. Quality Chic and Toofareastiswest both won their most recent races and are racing in a stakes for the first time. Laurel Valley has won once in eight tries and also moves up in class to stakes for the first time.

Crupi is the horse entered for the dirt only, having won the Discovery Stakes 15 days ago on the Aqueduct main track at the distance.

Top Contenders

Freedom Trail showed talent in his very first race 14 months ago in September, 2022 when winning around two turns on turf at first asking. His second career start was in the Awad Stakes on this Aqueduct turf course and he did not disappoint, rallying from sixth of seven to win. Moving to dirt for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes the next month, Freedom Trail finished eighth of nine and that proved his best races were to be on the grass. Rested three and a half months, Freedom Trail reappeared in a stakes race in Florida in March but only managed fourth. That was the first of four races in which he was uncompetitive, all stakes. However, a brief layoff from mid-July until September 21 appears to have made a big difference; Freedom Trail showed top form when rallying from sixth in the early stages to miss by a neck on the wire. That effort earned him a career-best 112 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which is also the best in the field. Considering the colt is now making his second start following two months off, even better is expected, and that should make Freedom Trail the one to beat in this year's Hill Prince Stakes.

Integration is undefeated in two races and appears to have a bright future on the grass. Similar to Freedom Trail, Integration won a two-turn turf race in his debut, then in his second career start stepped up in class, winning a stakes. That was the Virginia Derby, and Integration improved from a 91 ™ figure in his debut to 107 in that race. Rested a couple of months since then, but having shown capable of winning fresh as he did in his debut, Integration also has every right to improve his effort and figure and is a very strong win contender in this field.

Classic Catch has raced entirely on dirt in his nine starts, but not for lack of trying to run on the grass because his last two races were scheduled for the turf but run on the main track. Those were his two best efforts. The first of the pair was on August ninth when, at the longer distance of one mile and one-quarter, Classic Catch stalked the pacesetter in second from the start and gamely fought down to the wire to prevail by a neck. That effort earned a career-best 101 figure. Two months later on October 7, Classic Catch just missed by three-quarters of a length in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational, finishing three lengths clear of the third horse and earning a 99 figure. With a pedigree which suggests he will run as well or better on grass, Classic Catch would need just the slightest improvement to run as well as the top two contenders, so he rounds out a trio which appears to have the edge in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Equitize (GB) (85), Faraday (101), I'm Very Busy (101), Laurel Valley (90), Quality Chic (99) and Toofareastiswest (89). Crupi, who is entered for the main track only, earned a 101 figure in his best effort.

Top Win Contenders:
Freedom Trail
Integration
Classic Catch

Hill Prince Stake – Grade 2
Race 5 at Aqueduct
Saturday, November 18 – Post Time 1:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000

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‘Technical Issues and Potential Fraud’ Involved In Large Mystery Wagers

A series of massive wagers into exotic pari-mutuel betting pools at several Thoroughbred and Standardbred racetracks on Wednesday have officials scratching their heads over how the bets were placed and why.

The wagers – which created pool sizes never before seen at some of the tracks in question – focused on superfecta and super high five wagers that require a gambler to pick the first four and first five finishers, respectively, in a race.

Horseracingnation.com and Daily Racing Form were the first to report the bets were placed through FanDuel/TVG, which said it has begun an investigation into the matter, citing “technical issues and potential fraud.”

A full statement from a FanDuel spokesman said: “Earlier today FanDuel Racing identified technical issues and potential fraud related to wagering pools and took the appropriate steps to stop wagering via its platform. This issue is no longer ongoing and wagering has resumed. The company is undertaking a full review of this matter and will be cooperating with regulatory authorities.”

The Thoroughbred tracks known to be the subject of these wagers were Finger Lakes and Churchill Downs, while the Meadows and Monticello harness tracks also had unusually large bets placed on their races.

Churchill Downs in Kentucky put a temporary hold on the super high five payout for Wednesday's fourth race after a reported $751,000 was wagered into the pool. Last Saturday, Nov. 11, Churchill Downs offered super high five wagering on four races, with no pool exceeding $20,000.

New York's Finger Lakes had $359,298 wagered into a superfecta pool for Wednesday's fifth race, far eclipsing any other pools for that or any bet type on the card.

Harness tracks had even more abnormally massive wagers.

New York's Monticello Raceway had $1,450,600 wagered into the sixth race superfecta pool and another $950,029 on the seventh race superfecta.

At the Meadows in Pennsylvania, $119,682 in superfecta wagers were placed in the fourth race and $1,082,884 in the fifth race.

Though they did not approach the other bets in volume, Mahoning Valley, a Thoroughbred track in Ohio, saw larger than usual superfecta pools in races five and six ($63,390 and $61,386) and the day's total handle jumped 59 percent from the previous Wednesday.

One track official who spoke on background said at least one of the bets was made with every combination selected in large increments.

Horseracingnation.com quoted Shawn Wiles, director of racing at Monticello, saying, “I'm waiting to see the report at the end of the day to see how all these combinations were bet.”

Curtis Linnell, head of the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau, which monitors unusual wagering activities for North American racetracks, said he was investigating the bets.

“I'm kind of busy right now,” Linnell said when reached by the Paulick Report. He said he could not comment further at this time.

 

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Woodbine: Jackpot Hi-5 Mandatory Payout Set For Saturday

Woodbine Entertainment has announced a mandatory payout for the Thoroughbred Jackpot Hi-5 this Saturday (November 11th) at Woodbine Racetrack.

The carryover for the Jackpot Hi-5 mandatory payout sits at 409,656.58.

The Jackpot Hi-5 requires horseplayers to select the top-five finishers in order. A horseplayer can only win the entire jackpot if they hold the only winning ticket for that evening's wager. If there are multiple winning tickets, half the pool is paid out, while the other half is added to the carryover.

The entire carryover will be paid out, plus new money wagered, during Saturday's mandatory payout. The Jackpot Hi-5 has a $0.20 minimum and a 15 per cent takeout.

Woodbine's most recent Jackpot Hi-5 mandatory payout (August 20th) attracted new money of $1,275,357 for a total pool of $1,612,850. The 20-cent return was $1,097.77.

Saturday's Jackpot Hi-5 mandatory payout race is Race 11. Post time is scheduled for approximately 6:16 p.m.

Post time for live racing is 1:05 p.m.

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Can Gold Trip Win Back-To-Back Melbourne Cups?

Immediately after a successful Breeders' Cup in California, English jockey Ryan Moore pointed his global compass Down Under. On Monday night, the world's top-ranked jockey will bid for a second Melbourne Cup, aboard hot favorite Vauban, in the “race that stops a nation.”

Moore's global credentials notwithstanding, the biggest storylines are the excruciating choice between two top chances for Mark Zahra – and the farewell Cup ride of an all-time Australian great, Damien Oliver, aboard last year's winner Gold Trip, who seeks a record-equaling fourth victory in his country's most famous race, before retiring at year's end. The two-mile handicap is the seventh on a 10-race card at Flemington Racecourse. The gigantic field of 24 will spring from the gate at 11:00 p.m. Eastern (8:00 p.m. Pacific) and will be broadcast by FanDuel TV and Sky Racing World.

Vauban (5-2) has maintained a prominent place in future book wagering since cruising around Royal Ascot with his ears pricked to win (beneath Moore) by seven lengths at 1 3/4 miles. After starting his career in France, Vauban was bought by the same connections who finished second and third in the Melbourne Cups of 2015 and 2017 with a horse named Max Dynamite.

Irish trainer Willie Mullins has followed the same unusual approach, racing Vauban (very successfully) over jumps before reverting to “flat” racing. The 6-year-old gelding turned heads during a powerful morning workout at Flemington last week, prompting rival Australian trainer Mick Price to concede that Vauban “will be the toughest, fittest soundest horse in the race … I felt tired just looking at it!” Vauban is feeling so hungry for success that he left assistant trainer David Casey with a massive, kaleidoscopic bruise on his hip. Owner Rich Ricci gets too nervous to watch live despite being on-track, “but if he wins, I'd be delighted to watch the replay a few times.”

Vauban's stiffest opposition is expected to come from last year's winner, Gold Trip (7-2) and recent Caulfield Cup winner Without a Fight (6-1), who have presented jockey Mark Zahra with a massive conundrum. Gold Trip gave Zahra his first Melbourne Cup win (watch replay) and has displayed superior lead-up form to this year's renewal. Even after Zahra steered Without a Fight to victory in a thrilling Caulfield Cup, historically the most productive prep race for the Melbourne Cup, he was still expected to stick with Gold Trip.

Zahra described his decision to abandon Gold Trip as “an extremely tough choice that was 60/40 in Without a Fight's favor.” The most significant factor was the weather forecast. Last year, Gold Trip had his preferred soft footing in his last two prep races as well as in the Melbourne Cup. Zahra believes “it's a different kettle of fish this year. He's had two hard runs on firm tracks, he'll get a firm track again on Cup Day and I think Without a Fight is a better ride.”

Connections of Gold Trip will lose nothing with the services of James McDonald, who landed his first Melbourne Cup in 2021 aboard Verry Elleegant. Thus, the last two winning riders are pitted against each other in an intriguing subplot to the 2023 renewal of the great race.

While Mark Zahra's choice of mounts has generated considerable attention, the sentimental favorite among Australian racing fans will be 51-year-old Damien Oliver, who will ride in his last Melbourne Cup before retiring next month. Oliver's glittering career has netted him 129 Group 1 victories, including three Melbourne Cups. In the race's 162-year history, only two jockeys have won the race four times.

“Ollie” will strive for a farewell gift that leaves a lasting memory when legged up aboard 70-1 longshot Alenquer, whose trainer Mike Moroney finished second last year with 25-1 shot Emissary (and who trained the winner in 2000). Damien Oliver's first Melbourne Cup win was in 1995 and his latest in 2013, but his most special and memorable came on Media Puzzle in 2002 – just a week after elder brother Jason was killed in a trackwork accident. (Oliver's father Ray, also a jockey, died in a race fall in 1975.)

If Gold Trip's highweight of 128 pounds seems significant, spare a thought for the favorite in Sydney's feature race on Monday night. Cepheus (3-1) must lump 136 pounds in a $3 million race called the Big Dance (the fifth at Royal Randwick). Victorious in three of his past four starts, Cepheus carried the same weight winning a race in July and won't spend a penny from gate 1 in the 20-strong field.

The Flemington card will be broadcast on FanDuel TV this Monday night (First Post: 6:45 p.m. ET / 3:45 p.m. PT) alongside cards from Randwick, Eagle Farm and Ascot. All races will be live-streamed in HD on the new Sky Racing World Appskyracingworld.com and major ADW platforms such as TVG, TwinSpiresXpressbet, NYRABets, WatchandWagerHPIbet, FanDuel and AmWager. Wagering is also available via these ADW platforms. Fans can get free access to live-streaming, past performances, and expert picks on all races at skyracingworld.com.

About Michael Wrona

A native of Brisbane, Australia, Michael Wrona has called races in six countries. Michael's vast U.S. experience includes; race calling at Los Alamitos, Hollywood Park, Arlington and Santa Anita, calling the 2000 Preakness on a national radio network and the 2016 Breeders' Cup on the International simulcast network. Michael also performed a race call voiceover for a Seinfeld episode called The Subway.

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