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Equibase Analysis: General Jim Poised To Defeat Forte In Fountain Of Youth

This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes features the return of Forte, last year's two-year-old male Eclipse Award winner based on his winning the G1 Breeders' Futurity and G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes. Likely to be the heavy betting favorite, Forte has not run since that race during the first week of November and faces nine others trying to make their mark in the division as well as earn important “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points.

Leading the charge to try to defeat Forte are two recent stakes winners at Gulfstream in the form of Rocket Can and General Jim. Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull Stakes four weeks ago at the distance of the Fountain of Youth while General Jim won the G3 Swale Stakes on the same day but at the distance of seven furlongs. Holy Bull runner-up Shadow Dragon as well as fourth and fifth place finishers Legacy Isle and Il Miracolo, respectively, hope to improve. Cyclone Mischief, sent to post as the heavy favorite in the Holy Bull, hopes to make amends off his poor seventh place effort. Blazing Sevens finished fourth of 10 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Forte and also returns off the same four month layoff. Dangerous Ride steps up in class off a win in allowance level races over the track and Mage stakes a bigger step up in class of a win as he just broke his maiden.

Analysis and Main win contenders:

Before discussing the horses I think have the highest probability to win this year's Fountain of Youth, I want to talk about the likely favorite, Forte, who I don't believe is one of the top three contenders to win although the public at large undoubtedly will. So far this year in Kentucky Derby prep races, three horses returning for their first starts of 2023 failed at low odds – Giant Mischief (Rebel), Dubyuhnell (Sam F. Davis), and Arctic Arrogance (Withers). All were bet heavily and as if their most recent race was just a month or so before the current race as opposed to two to three months back. Horses are athletes, and in particular newly turned 3-year-olds often need a race following a layoff before running well enough to win when compared to horses of similar caliber which have run in the past month or so.

History bears this out as well, because only one top Breeders' Cup Juvenile top finisher has returned to win the Fountain of Youth, and that was in 2011 when Union Rags won this race after a runner-up effort four months earlier. One other horse won this race in his sophomore debut off a long layoff and that was Promises Fulfilled in 2018, who had won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes the previous fall. Most if not all of the other editions of the Fountain of Youth Stakes have seen horse returning from three to four months off fare poorly. What that tells me is Forte will have his work cut out in order to pick up where he left off with an effort good enough to repeat his career-best 105 Equibase® Speed Figure, although he certainly could be in the top three to fill out the exacta or trifecta.

Therefore, General Jim is by far the horse with the highest probability to win this year's Fountain of Youth Stakes in my opinion. As with a number of top 3-year-olds over the past few years, General Jim ran on turf as a 2-year-old, winning his first start around two turns in the second start of his career last September. Coming right back to win a highly rated two-turn turf race in October, General Jim earned a career best 99 Equibase® Speed Figure which is the second highest figure earned by any horse in this field except Forte. After a third place effort in the Central Park Stakes on turf in November, General Jim shortened up to a one-turn mile for a fourth place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, which he arguably might have won as the two to one betting favorite if he hadn't been blocked for most of the stretch run. Trainer McGaughey tried blinkers for the colt's next start, four weeks ago in the Swale Stakes over the track and the result was a strong win in ridden-out fashion with a 92 figure.

Jockey Luis Saez has been in the saddle for all three of the colt's wins and rides back, with the ground saving rail and with a pedigree (Into Mischief out of a Curlin Mare) which suggests the colt will love this distance (and longer) on dirt. There's also history in favor of General Jim moving from that seven furlong stakes to winning the Fountain of Youth because at one time the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes was a prep for this race as the Swale is now, and in 2014 Wildcat Red used the Hutcheson as a prep to winning this race.

Trainer Bill Mott has a pair of top contenders in the form of Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon, the one-two finishers in the Holy Bull Stakes four weeks ago on the same day General Jim won the Swale. Historically, Holy Bull runners have had a big impact in the Fountain of Youth. Gunnevera (2018), Ete Indien (2020), Scat Daddy (2007) and last year's winner Simplification all prepped in the Holy Bull before emerging victorious in this race. Both Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon are making their second starts off layoffs and can be expected to improve, and Mott has had a lot of success in Derby prep races with 3-year-olds making their second starts of the year, with three wins and three runner-up finishers from eight starters the past few years. Although Rocket Can earned an 89 figure compared to 88 for Shadow Dragon, both much lower than the career best 99 figure General Jim has earned, both colts deserve the same amount of respect in this race if for no other reason that their Hall of Fame trainer has enough confidence to enter both in this situation.

The rest of the field, most who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Blazing Sevens (98), Cyclone Mischief (101), Dangerous Ride (82), Il Miracolo (81), Legacy Isle (82) and Mage (88).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
General Jim
Rocket Can
Shadow Dragon

Fountain of Youth Stakes – Grade 2
Race 14 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, March 4 – Post Time 5:43 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000

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Arias, Decauwer, Goodman, And Shurman Voted Into NTRA National Horseplayers Championship’s Hall Of Fame

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) announced Wednesday that Jose Arias, Dennis Decauwer, Jim Goodman, and Bill Shurman have been voted by their peers for induction into the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship's Hall of Fame. The four esteemed handicappers represent the ninth class of NHC Hall of Fame inductees and will be recognized during the NHC Champions Dinner on Sunday, March 12, 2023 at the conclusion of the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) at the Horseshoe Las Vegas.

More on the 2023 NHC Hall of Fame Class:

Jose Arias, of Bell Gardens, CA, is one of the most accomplished horseplayers in the history of the NHC. Arias captured the 2014 NHC after a remarkable stretch that saw him record the highest two-day total in NHC history. As of 2021, Arias had two top 10 finishes at the NHC and came within a whisker of becoming the first two-time Champion of the event before settling for second-place. He is a highly skilled horse player with more than one million dollars in career earnings.

Dennis Decauwer, of Rancho Cucamonga, CA, is an 18-time qualifier to the NHC and has made innumerable contributions to the NHC and tournament play in general. Decauwer is a long-time Vice Chairman of the NHC Players Committee and is actively involved in the NHC Mentoring Program. He has advised several Southern California tournament directors on ways to improve or vary tournament structures. He has cashed three times at the NHC, including in 2009 when he finished in second place and earned $150,000.

Although a highly-skilled horseplayer and five-time qualifier to the NHC in his own right, Jim Goodman, of Lexington, KY, is the first member of the NHC Hall of Fame elected by his fellow horseplayers primarily due to his role in hosting successful contests at his beloved Keeneland Race Course where he has worked since 2005. As Director of Wagering Development, Goodman has built contests like the Keeneland Spring Challenge, the Grade One Gamble and the BCBC/NHC Challenge into must stops on the contest tour schedule, all the while introducing horseplayers from throughout North America to one of the world's most iconic racetracks.

William (Bill) Shurman, of Danville, CA, is arguably one of the most consistent handicapping contest players in the history of the NHC. He started participating in NHC qualifiers in 2003 and as of 2023 had earned a berth in the national championship in Las Vegas for an astonishing 20 consecutive years. A tournament mainstay from his native New York to Kentucky to his adopted home state of California, Shurman has won major tournaments at Keeneland and Del Mar while also cashing at Aqueduct, Saratoga, Santa Anita, among others. He is the brother of NHC Hall of Famer Paul Shurman.

$3 Million Pool Expected In Saturday’s Rainbow Pick Six On Santa Anita Handicap Day

With an 11-horse field in prospect for the 86th running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Santa Anita Handicap presented by Yaamava Resort & Casino headlining a blockbuster 12-race card this Saturday, fans can expect to be greeted by a total pool approaching $3 million, with a mandatory payout, in Santa Anita's popular 20 cent Rainbow Pick Six Jackpot.

On a racing program that will also include the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile, the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes and the Grade 2 Buena Vista Stakes, large fields promise to the order of the day. The Rainbow Six, which will begin with Saturday's seventh race and finish with race 12, the Grade 1, $500,000 Big Cap, has attracted a total of 56 horses, with average field size at a lucrative 9.8 runners per race.

With special early first post time set for 12 noon, the Rainbow Six, which will be comprised of races seven through 12, will get underway at approximately 3:05 p.m. PT.

In addition to a full menu of world class racing, Santa Anita will also offer a wide variety of promotions on Saturday.

BIG CAP HAT GIVEAWAY FOR XB REWARDS MEMBERS
BIG CAP CRAFT BEER & CIDER FESTIVAL (West Apron, Grandstand)
FRONTRUNNER BUFFET (West End)
TRACKSIDE DINING BUFFET
FAMILY FUN ZONE & FIESTA DE SANTA ANITA (Infield)
SANTA ANITA PICK 'EM (Online Game)

Fans are also advised that reserved seating and packages are still available at santaanita.com.

Admission gates will open early on Saturday at 10 a.m. For additional information, please visit our website or call (626) 574-RACE.

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Hawthorne’s Expanded Spring/Summer Thoroughbred Meet Begins March 5

With the shift in the dynamic of live racing in Illinois, Hawthorne Race Course will begin their extended spring/summer Thoroughbred season on Sunday, March 5. Traditionally racing spring and fall Thoroughbred meets, the shift to summer live racing will allow horsemen the ability to stay in one location for the majority of the year while offering turf racing for an extended period. In addition to the shift in schedule, Hawthorne Race Course will also offer the lowest takeout in the country on Win-Place-Show wagers.

Following the completion of the 2022 fall Thoroughbred season, Hawthorne remained open for training, offering horsemen a location to stay during the winter while keeping horses fit. A mild winter with limited precipitation has allowed for many more horses to keep consistent training patterns in preparation for the start of the spring season. With more horses on the grounds and busy workout tabs, 69 horses have been entered for the nine race Sunday opening day card. During the first three months of the season, Hawthorne will be racing live on Sunday and Thursday with a 2:30 PM post.

“We made the decision to get away from Saturday racing in the spring for multiple reasons,” stated Hawthorne Director Of Racing Jim Miller. “Saturdays are full with so many marquee racing days in the spring across the country that we didn't feel it was the smartest to compete against those venues. By shifting Saturday racing to Thursday in the spring we will face less competition on the national scene while being able to make Hawthorne a more visible track to the wagering public. Additionally, once FanDuel Racing begins their season downstate, we wanted to give Illinois horsemen as many opportunities to race in the state. By racing on Saturdays during the first three months we would have been in direct competition with each other and that would not have been beneficial to anyone.”

While live Thoroughbred racing begins in March, the expanded summer meet will also bring on the potential for more turf racing at Hawthorne. With the spring meets at Hawthorne traditionally allowing only a couple of weeks on the turf and the fall meet producing only six weeks of grass racing, the schedule shift in 2023 will bring about much more turf potential. Turf racing at Hawthorne is expected to commence in May as a full four months of racing on the grass is likely during the summer season. Along with overnight racing, five stakes will be run on the Hawthorne turf this summer, featured by the return of the Hawthorne Derby, Presented by BetMakers on Sunday, June 25.

Many familiar faces have remained at Hawthorne throughout the winter training as past Hawthorne training champions Hugh Robertson, Brittany Vanden Berg and Scott Becker have had strings on the grounds all winter long. Additionally Larry Rivelli, Chris Block, Frank Kirby, Michele Boyce and Armando Hernandez have also left horses as Hawthorne to train this winter. With numerous Hawthorne riding titles under his belt, Chris Emigh will be back in the saddle at Hawthorne this spring along with another Hawthorne champ in Victor Santiago. Veterans Julio Felix, Emmanuel Esquivel and Constantino Roman also return while Sebastian Saez comes to Chicago, looking to make his mark in 2023.

For the player, Hawthorne Race Course is also making a splash on the wagering end in 2023. While low 15% takeout rates are already offered on the popular Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers, Hawthorne Race Course will now be offering the lowest takeout in the country on Win, Place and Show wagers. For the 2023 season, takeout on these wagers has been lowered to 12%.

“When a person is first introduced to wagering on racing, Win, Place and Show are typically the first way someone will play a race,” stated Hawthorne Assistant General Manager John Walsh. “Win, Place and Show remain some of the most popular wagers and typically combine to produce the largest pools on a card. With the added exposure we are expecting Hawthorne to receive in 2023 due to the shift to summer racing, along with our Thursday cards, we want to provide the best value in the country for our customers. We are expecting fuller fields, more turf racing and very competitive racing all summer long. The reduction in WPS takeout puts more into the bettors' pockets and we believe will also increase the pools to benefit racing for horsemen in the state of Illinois.”

Hawthorne Race Course, Chicago's Hometown Track, races two live meets in 2023. Spring Thoroughbred racing kicks off on Sunday, March 5 and races through Monday, September 4. During the spring meet, first post daily at Hawthorne will be 2:30 PM. Harness racing returns to Hawthorne after completion of racing at the Illinois State Fairs. Live harness racing begins Saturday, September 9, racing through the end of the year. Hawthorne is open daily for full-card simulcasting as well as for sports wagering in the PointsBet Sportbook. For any information about Hawthorne Race Course visit our website www.HawthorneRaceCourse.com.

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