Robin Goodfellow’s Racing Tips: Best bets for Tuesday, December 29
Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow dishes out his tips for Tuesday's meetings at Newbury, Doncaster, Kelso and Southwell.
Tag: Horse racing news
Stories to Watch in 2021
It’s time to turn the page from what was a horrendous year. Thank goodness. The year 2021 is upon us and, for horse racing, it figures to be an important and eventful 12 months. These are the stories we will be talking about and writing about in 2021:
Will Handle Be On The Rise?
Perhaps the most positive story to come out of 2020 has been the handle figures. With the pandemic causing a sizeable reduction when it comes to the amount of races that were run, betting figured to have declined steeply this year. Instead, entering December, it was off just 1.48% for the year. The number of total races run was down by 24.52%.
This could mean that handle will show a significant bump in 2021. The theory is that racing picked up some new customers during the months where it was the only sporting event going and that is why the handle numbers for 2020 didn’t fall off a cliff. With what should be a fairly normal racing schedule in 2021 and with racing perhaps having grown its customer base, this could be a year where the sport takes a needed step forward.
Then again, the 2020 figures could be nothing more than a matter of the pie being sliced differently. Was this simply a case of the same people betting virtually the same amount of money, but having fewer overall races to wager on?
It’s anyone’s guess, but there should be a concrete answer to that question in 2021.
What Will Be The Impact Of The New Lasix Rules?
Starting Jan. 1, Lasix will not be permitted in most stakes races at several of the sport’s top tracks. The ban will include all three Triple Crown races and most of the prep races for the GI Kentucky Derby. This comes after the same tracks banned Lasix in 2-year-old races this year.
The 2-year-old ban didn’t have much of an impact as trainers adjusted and learned to do without the anti-bleeding medication. There didn’t seem to be any major incidents. Most likely, the story will be much the same when it comes to the 2021 stakes races as the sport discovers it can get by just fine without Lasix.
What’s Next When It Comes To The Doping Indictments?
Since the bombshell story broke in March that Jorge Navarro, Jason Servis and 25 others had been indicted for their alleged involvement in the doping of horses, there haven’t been many additional developments. That should change in 2021.
By year’s end, it’s likely that the case will reach a conclusion, with the possibility that both trainers enter into a plea deal. If that happens, both could be sentenced some time in 2021.
We should also know whether or not there will be additional indictments. It appears that some of the individuals who were indicted could be talking, perhaps naming more names. We’ll find out in 2021.
What Will We Learn About The Horseracing Integrity And Safety Act?
Signed into law by President Trump Sunday, the Horseracing Safety and Integrity Act must go into effect by July 1, 2022. But it will still be an important story to follow in the year ahead. This should be the year where many questions begin to get answered, among them how much will it cost and how will it be paid for? Horseplayers are dreading the thought of having to pay for this through a higher takeout and owners don’t want to have to pay some sort of fee every time they start a horse, Both, unfortunately, are possibilities.
This will also be the year when the members of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority Board will be named.
Will Arlington Park Survive?
Churchill Downs, the owners of Arlington Park, has only committed to one more year of racing, which means 2021 could be it for one of the sport’s most beautiful tracks. There should be a place in the sport for a showcase track in a huge metropolitan area, but it doesn’t appear that there are many options on the horizon that would save Arlington. Let’s hope that there will be a reprieve for Arlington.
How Good Is Charlatan?
It’s not too early to jump on the Charlatan (Speightstown) bandwagon. Limited to just three races before being sidelined by an ankle injury, he looked like a horse with unlimited potential after crossing the wire first in the GI Arkansas Derby, a race he eventually lost due to a medication violation. He looks even better after his blowout win over a stellar field in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. Saturday at Santa Anita. The early favorite for 2021 Horse of the Year, Charlatan could have the kind of year that Ghostzapper had in 2004. Don’t expect a busy campaign, but he could dominate every time he shows up while posting ridiculously fast numbers.
What Will Be The Effect Of New Jersey’s Whip Ban?
Whip reform has been a slow process, but it will take a huge leap forward in 2021 when the whip will be banned in New Jersey racing. The only exception will be situations where it is needed for safety reasons. All eyes will be on Monmouth Park when it opens in the spring with an experiment that could change the debate when it comes to the future of the whip in racing. What happens in New Jersey could influence what direction California will take.
When Will Fans Be Allowed Back In The Stands?
Fans weren’t allowed to attend the Triple Crown races in 2020 or the Breeders’ Cup. The stands were empty at Saratoga and at Del Mar. That won’t change Jan. 1, but it appears likely that, with the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, there will be a return to normalcy in 2021. That may not happen in time for the Kentucky Derby, but could it happen for, say, opening day of Saratoga? Nothing would be more welcome.
Can Godolphin Win Its First Kentucky Derby?
There aren’t many important races left in the world that Sheikh Mohammed has not won, but a victory in the Kentucky Derby has eluded one of the sport’s most powerful stables. Godolphin has sent out 10 starters in the Derby without a winner. Its best showing was a fourth-place finish by Frosted (Tapit) in 2015.
That very well could change in 2021. Essential Quality (Tapit), the GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who will soon be named 2019’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male, is a horse without any apparent flaws. He has the ability, the right breeding and the right trainer in Brad Cox. He will have to deal with whatever Bob Baffert brings to Churchill Downs, but Essential Quality very well could be the one to get Godolphin into the Derby winner’s circle.
The post Stories to Watch in 2021 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
Dobson: This Was Not The Year For ‘Big Changes’ In Graded Stakes Program
There's usually lots of teeth gnashing when the American Graded Stakes Committee announces its changes each December, but this year's press release from the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association – the group that organizes the committee – was greeted with a collective yawn.
That's a good thing.
There have been years when historically significant races are given a harsh reality check with a downgrade (i.e., the Hopeful and Ruffian going from G1 to G2 in 2012, the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial from G1 to G2 in 2017, or the Vosburgh and Santa Anita Oaks from G1 to G2 in 2020). This was not one of those years.
The biggest change was the elevation of the Saratoga Derby Invitational to Grade 1 from ungraded for its third running in 2021. No races were downgraded from Grade 1 to Grade 2.
Everett Dobson, chairman of the committee, told the Paulick Report the consensus of the 11 members was to take a cautious approach when grading for the 2021 racing season because of how the coronavirus pandemic affected the racing schedule and both domestic and international travel for much of the year.
“We didn't feel this was the year to make big changes,” he said.
Dobson, who operates Cheyenne Stables and Candy Meadows Farm, pointed out that, while many races felt a negative impact from the pandemic, some tracks benefited when others were closed and forced to postpone or cancel some of their graded stakes.
The committee looks at the last five renewals of a race, so one good or bad year in terms of field quality will not make an overwhelming difference. But for those races that were run this year, the 2020 renewal will impact a race's average quality for the next five years and probably deserves an asterisk as the committee continues its work going forward in the next four grading sessions.
Also, according to TOBA's rules for the grading process, if a race “is substantially changed on the calendar (30 or more days), this will prompt a review and may result in a change of grade.” The committee can also change the grade of a race “if its distance is altered by more than one-eighth mile.”
I seriously doubt, however, if the Kentucky Derby or Preakness (moved by several months) or Belmont Stakes (shortened by three-eighths of a mile) were in danger of losing their Grade 1 status. Same goes for races that weren't run in 2020 because of the pandemic.
“If races have not been run in two successive years they are not eligible for grading,” said Dobson, adding this caveat: “This year, if a race was not run because of COVID, we gave them an extra year.”
While the committee used the same criteria that's been in place for many years (see end of this article for the TOBA Members Guide explanation), the pandemic did force the committee to work remotely via a two-day Zoom meeting instead of in person. As such, Dobson said, votes were done openly with a thumbs up or thumbs down whereas in the past they were done by secret ballot.
Additionally, just because some members of the committee are racing executives working for major tracks, Dobson said it would be wrong to conclude they vote in support of their own races when grade changes are under consideration.
“I can absolutely say they vote objectively,” Dobson said. “They work hard at understanding the big picture and do the best they can at leaving their biases at home when it comes to who they work for. They really help provide perspective. If a race looked particularly weak this time, what happened?
“In the case of New York,” Dobson continued, “some of their 2020 stakes races were weaker than they had been, but guess what? The Europeans couldn't ship over. Being able to understand from the racing secretary what was going on as we try to analyze a race is very valuable as we make our decisions.”
Beyond the nuts and bolts of grading races, Dobson said, the committee takes a 30,000-foot view of the entire program.
For example, in 1989, there were more than 83,000 races run annually in North America and 378 graded stakes. In 2019, there were 40,800 races and 450 graded stakes in the U.S. That's a 51% decline in races run but a 19% increase in the number of graded stakes.
“We spend a lot of time on that subject every year,” Dobson said. “We meet several times a year and that's always the No. 1 topic when we talk outside of the grading session. The first thing we did was analyze the foal crop. It is declining, but if you look at the numbers from The Jockey Club website, it's actually pretty stable in Kentucky (where the highest-quality foals are produced). Also, Kentucky-based stallions are now siring over 3,000 offspring foaled outside of Kentucky. Overall, the foal crop is down, but it's not a direct correlation as to quality. You have to dig a little deeper into what Kentucky is doing, and what New York and Florida are doing as far as quality. Despite that, we have brought down the number of graded stakes (from its peak).”
From TOBA Graded Stakes Members Guide: Information supplied to the members of the Graded Stakes Committee includes statistical data for the last five years for all eligible races indicating quality of the field based on 1) points assigned for best performance in unrestricted black type stakes (see Appendix A); 2) percentage of graded stakes winners in the field; 3) quality points achieved (see Appendix A) 4) the official charts of the five most recent renewals; 5) North American Rating Committee (NARC) Ratings; and 6) Thoro-Graph ratings. In addition, each renewal is identified by division, grade, distance, surface, purse, and number of starters. Members are expected to utilize this data, together with the knowledge drawn from their own experience, to make individual judgments as to the relative merit of the eligible races. Eight affirmative votes are required to upgrade any race and six affirmative votes are required to downgrade a race.
The post Dobson: This Was Not The Year For ‘Big Changes’ In Graded Stakes Program appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Smaller Grandstand, Fans In The Infield? O’Rourke Pitching Ideas For Belmont Renovation
New York Racing Association president and CEO Dave O'Rourke is preparing to present the state with redevelopment plans for Belmont Park, reports the Daily Racing Form, which could include a grandstand just one-third the size of the existing one.
Rather than retrofitting the current grandstand, O'Rourke favors rebuilding a smaller version because he believes it represents fewer challenges. All three surfaces at Belmont also need to be renovated, O'Rourke said, and the project could include opening the infield to fans. Specific plans will be drawn up once the state approves a general direction for the project.
The state is the landowner at Belmont Park, where the current construction nearing completion is a new arena for the National Hockey League's New York Islanders. Construction on the arena began in September of 2019, and while it was delayed due to COVID-19, completion is expected in fall of 2021.
“We think it's a really good project,” O'Rourke told drf.com. “One, we can fund it off VLTs. It'll create jobs. It also might create some other opportunities for the state with what it could free up at Aqueduct. Our anticipation is that those conversations with the state are going to pick up literally within the next few weeks.”
Read more at the Daily Racing Form.
The post Smaller Grandstand, Fans In The Infield? O’Rourke Pitching Ideas For Belmont Renovation appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
