Horse Betting | Horse Racing Free Tips

Kentucky Downs Turf Pick of the Day for Sept. 6

Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato give their best bet for each day of racing during the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs. $100 Win/Place format; highest bankroll at the end wins.

Steve Sherack: Sunday's Results – Gamble's Orb finished 6th.

Monday – Race 7 – Considering the brutal meet trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. has endured at Saratoga this summer, Setting the Mood's second-place finish in a first-level allowance going long Aug. 6 looks even better now. Claimed for just $20k back in March and a back-to-back winner at Gulfstream right out of the box, she's really seemed to re-find her very solid long-distance grass form versus much tougher of 2020 for Todd Pletcher, which is easily good enough to win this. Selection: #3 Setting the Mood (7-2).

Brian DiDonato: Sunday's Results – Go Bali Go rushed up to set the pace before fading late.

Monday – Race 4 – Cutbacks don't typically work in traditional turf sprints (i.e. 5f or 5 1/2f), but they seem to be pretty effective in these elongated sprints at Kentucky Downs. There are several who are shortening up in this race, and the one who interests me most is Button Boy. He ran like a prototypical cutback candidate in his last two–in contention turning for home and then just up and down in the stretch. Trainer Nacho Correas takes the blinkers off this time and the gelding shows two very sharp-looking works since his last start. With Julien Leparoux up, I'd expect Button Back to sit back and hopefully pick them all off late with a closing kick he hasn't shown going long. Selection: #3 Button Boy (8-1).

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Wagering Up, Purses Down Slightly During October That Included Preakness

As a service to the industry and in consideration of the economic changes due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Equibase is currently providing monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing’s performance throughout the year.

October 2020 vs. October 2019
Indicator	October 2020	October 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$929,063,211	$776,071,164	+19.71%
U.S. Purses	$90,845,317	$91,981,753	-1.24%
U.S. Race Days	340	334	+1.80%
U.S. Races	2,852	2,754	+3.56%
U.S. Starts	22,410	22,176	+1.06%
Average Field Size	7.86	8.05	-2.42%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,732,539	$2,323,566	+17.60%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$267,192	$275,394	-2.98%

YTD 2020 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator	YTD 2020	YTD 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$9,277,878,319	$9,370,253,183	-0.99%
U.S. Purses	$720,074,376	$985,849,122	-26.96%
U.S. Race Days	2,849	3,849	-25.98%
U.S. Races	23,747	31,308	-24.15%
U.S. Starts	186,886	233,153	-19.84%
Average Field Size	7.87	7.45	+5.68%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,256,539	$2,434,464	+33.77%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$252,746	$256,131	-1.32%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Twinspires Triple Crown Throwdown: Kentucky Derby

Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap Triple Crown prep races plus the big three races themselves. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets in the preps and $200 Win/Place bets in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Highest bankroll at the end wins.

DeRosa – Bankroll: $5480 – Pegasus Result – Skyscanner made no impact at a big price.

GI Kentucky Derby – Tiz the Law is my pick to win the GI Kentucky Derby. He is the most likely winner, and my wagers will go through him attempting to hook up other non favorites with him (i.e., I think other favorites are less likely to win their races than Tiz the Law is to win the Derby). But this is a win-place exercise, and Max Player gives us our best chance to catch Brian, as he might pay more to place than Tiz the Law would to win and place. Clockers have noted the work Steve Asmussen has put into Max Player since joining his barn, and as a colt who’s always run his race behind Tiz the Law, he feels more like a should-be third choice than the likely fifth choice. Selection: #2 Max Player (30-1).

Sherack – Bankroll: $4110 – Pegasus Result – Granted, the competition wasn’t much, but still nice to see Pneumatic run the kind of race I knew he was capable of.

GI Kentucky Derby – I’m not nearly as confident as I was a month ago prior to Tiz the Law’s jaw-dropping win in the GI Runhappy Travers S., but it’s still Honor A. P. for me. While the Shared Belief S. was obviously a disappointing result for the stunning dark bay, especially following his breakthrough win in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, it was never going to be the right kind of spot for him cutting back in distance and facing only three rivals ahead of his main objective on the first Saturday in September. Can he improve off his visually impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and take the necessary leap forward to take on Tiz the Law at 1 1/4 miles here? I’m betting that he does. Ny Traffic is my longshot for underneath. Selection: #16 Honor A. P. (5-1).

DiDonato – Bankroll: $5500 – Pegasus Result – Big City Bob didn’t do anything.

GI Kentucky Derby – Since I’ve got this huge $20 lead to protect, I’m going to chalk out and go with Tiz the Law. I just don’t see a knock on him–especially now that he’s proven over 10 panels and in fact ran his best race ever at that distance. Maybe he’s a bounce candidate, but he certainly wasn’t all out in Saratoga and his recent breezes have been super strong. He’s the tactical type who almost always works out a good trip and the post doesn’t bother me–good luck if you’re trying to beat him. I think Honor A. P. is by far the second most likely winner, but that’s not an interesting opinion either. Money Moves and Max Player are the price horses I’ll likely include underneath to try to spice things up. Selection: #17 Tiz the Law (3-5).

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