Weekend Lineup: Derby Points On The Line In Holy Bull, Bob Lewis

Throughout the year, the NTRA will provide a guide to the best stakes races in North America and beyond. Races are listed in chronological order (all times Eastern). Full previews when available can be found through the link for each race.

A pair of Kentucky Derby qualifying races are on tap this weekend. The 1 1/16-miles, Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes will headline a 12-race program at Gulfstream Park with five graded stakes worth $600,000 in purses while Santa Anita Park hosts the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Both preps offer qualifying points for the 147th Derby on May 1 to the top four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale.

The Holy Bull and the Robert B. Lewis will both be televised on TVG as part of their usual coast-to-coast coverage. In addition to racing from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, TVG will be featuring racing from Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

The NYRA-produced “America's Day at the Races” program is back in full swing, slated to broadcast races from Aqueduct, Oaklawn Park, and other tracks. Presented by America's Best Racing and Claiborne Farm, the show will run on FS1 and FS2 Jan. 30 and Jan. 31.

Saturday, Jan. 30

1:10 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Kitten's Joy Stakes at Gulfstream Park on TVG

Turf stakes winners Kentucky Pharoah, unbeaten since being moved to the grass last month, and Never Surprised, undefeated in his only two starts last fall, will provide an intriguing matchup when they square off in Saturday's $100,000 Kitten's Joy. Calumet Farm homebred Kentucky Pharoah made his first two starts on dirt in Kentucky, finishing off the board in a pair of maiden special weights behind Mandaloun, a next-out winner that ran third in the Grade 3 Lecomte on Jan. 16, and Caddo River, winner of the Smarty Jones Jan. 22. Never Surprised hasn't raced since opening his career with back-to-back starts 20 days apart in November on the Aqueduct turf. After winning a six-furlong maiden special weight in 1:09.19, he came back with a front-running 1 ¾-length score in the Central Park.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP013021USA4-EQB.html

1:50 p.m.—$150,000 Grade 3 Toboggan Stakes at Aqueduct on FS2

Graded stakes action kicks off at Aqueduct Racetrack for 2021 with a field of five assembling for Saturday's 128th running of the Toboggan for 4-year-olds and upward going seven furlongs over the main track. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez for owner Michael Dubb, the 8-year-old Pete's Play Call was claimed for $62,500 out of a winning effort in an optional-claiming sprint on Nov. 27 at the Big A. He made first start for new connections a winning one when capturing the 6 1/2-furlong Gravesend last out on Jan. 2 at Aqueduct.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/AQU013021USA4-EQB.html

2:10 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on TVG

Slam Dunk Racing's Drain the Clock will make his graded-stakes debut in the Swale Stakes for connections who are hoping to keep things short and sweet. Although also nominated to the Holy Bull, the 1 1/16-miles Florida Derby prep, Drain the Clock will seek to remain undefeated in South Florida in the seven-furlong undercard feature for 3-year-olds. Drain the Clock captured his Sept. 12 debut in a five-furlong off-the-turn maiden special weight race at Gulfstream before winning a first-level optional claiming allowance at six furlongs at Gulfstream Park West Oct. 28.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP013021USA6-EQB.html

3:46 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream Park on TVG

John Minchello's Competitive Speed, a bargain $5,000 juvenile purchase turned stakes winner in less than a year, will put her three-race win streak on the line when she tries graded company for the first time in Saturday's $100,000 Forward Gal. Competitive Speed debuted in the slop at Gulfstream Park West in October, finishing sixth in a six-furlong maiden special weight, but hasn't lost since. She graduated by 1 ½ lengths in a 6 ½-furlong maiden claimer at Gulfstream West less than two weeks after her unveiling and made her Gulfstream debut Dec. 6, coming from off the pace to take a starter optional claimer by 4 ½ lengths before stepping up to stakes company in the 6 ½-furlong Glitter Woman Jan. 2.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP013021USA9-EQB.html

4:18 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream Park on TVG

Con Lima, who stepped up and stretched out to become a stakes winner last month, goes after a third straight victory in Saturday's $100,000 Sweetest Chant. Con Lima comes from the barn of Todd Pletcher, who also trained her sire, 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution. Already, Con Lima has six races under her belt with three wins and three seconds. Her first four starts came on dirt, including a pair of runner-up finishes in the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga and Our Dear Peggy at Gulfstream in September, both of which were rained off the grass.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP013021USA10-EQB.html

4:50 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on TVG

WinStar Farm LLC and CHC Inc.'s Prime Factor and Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable's Amount are scheduled to bring a combined total of two races of experience into Saturday's $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes. Jumping from maiden special weight company into a graded-stakes may be a lot to ask of lightly raced 3-year-olds, but their trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a history of success with late-developing colts during the winter months at Gulfstream. Prime Factor debuted at Gulfstream Dec. 12 with a stunning 8 ¼-length victory, running six furlongs in 1:10.38 while drawing away powerfully after closely stalking the early pace. Amount overcame bumping at the starts of his Dec. 26 debut, rallying from off the pace to score by 5 ¾ lengths, completing seven furlongs in 1:24.68.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP013021USA11-EQB.html

5:33 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

The Richard Baltas-trained Idol, Richard Mandella's Tizamagician and Florida invader King Guillermo head a compact field of five older horses in Saturday's San Pasqual Stakes. Idol was attentive to the pace en route to a close second place finish in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes on Dec. 26 and will once again get the services of eastern-based Gabriel Saez on Saturday. With an overall mark of 13-3-5-0, Tizamagician comes off an outstanding second condition allowance win on Jan. 2, a race in which he led throughout and took by a half length. Although he'll be facing a graded stakes winner in King Guillermo, Tizamagician has the advantage of a sharp recent win over the track as he once again runs out of his own stall for Mandella.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA013021USA5-EQB.html

6:37 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

Although Bob Baffert will be packing a heavy one-two punch with Spielberg and Medina Spirit, Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes has attracted a very competitive field of eight sophomores, with no clear-cut standout. Spielberg comes off a gutty nose victory at the same distance in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19, which was his sixth career start. The win no doubt took on added luster when the runner-up, Doug O'Neill's The Great One, came back to demolish a field of maidens by 14 lengths this past Saturday.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA013021USA7-EQB.html

Sunday, Jan. 31

6:32 p.m.—$300,000 Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic at Sam Houston Race Park on TVG

Defending race winner Lady Apple headlines the ninth running of the Ladies Classic, contested at 1 1/16-miles on the main track. The 5-year-old daughter of Curlin is trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Steve Asmussen and has won six of her 18 starts with earnings of $1,045,984. One year ago, Lady Apple closed gamely to defeating a contentious field which included 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress and Street Band. Her third place finish in last month's Spanky Broussard at Fair Grounds served as a solid prep for her return to Sam Houston Race Park, where she will break from post position four.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/HOU013121USA8-EQB.html

7:07 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 3 John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park on TVG

Trainer Mike Maker has won seven of the past nine editions of the John B. Connally Turf Cup and has three turf specialists set to compete in Sunday's test. One of his prospects this year, Three Diamonds Farm's Marzo, ran third in last year's edition of the race before running in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. Sired by Medaglia D' Oro, Marzo has won four races and $310,000 to date. He will break from post six with Albin Jimenez in the saddle.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/HOU013121USA9-EQB.html

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Report: Mutasaabeq Off Derby Trail With ‘Minor Shin Issue’

The dual-surface capable Mutasaabeq has been removed from consideration for the 2021 Kentucky Derby, reports DRF's Mike Welsch on Twitter. A 3-year-old son of Into Mischief, the colt exited his latest workout with a “minor shin issue.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher had been pointing the Shadwell-owned Mutasaabeq to Saturday's G3 Holy Bull Stakes, after the colt impressed in his 3-year-old debut on the dirt in the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

As a juvenile, Mutasaabeq finished third in the G1 Hopeful on dirt, then won the G2 Bourbon on turf before finishing off the board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Out of the winning Scat Daddy mare Downside Scenario, a half-sister to Group 3 winner and $844,783 earner Cool Cowboy, Mutasaabeq was a $425,000 weanling at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

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Report: Mutasaabeq Off Derby Trail

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief), a stakes winner on both dirt and turf, will miss an expected start in Saturday's GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream and is off the GI Kentucky Derby trail, according to a report by Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch. The Shadwell Stable colorbearer and 'TDN Rising Star' annexed the Mucho Macho Man S. in Hallandale last out and also captured the GIII Bourbon S. on the Keeneland turf in October.

“The versatile Mutasaabeq, impressive winner of the Mucho Macho Man, who was pointing for Saturday's Holy Bull S., is off the Kentucky Derby trail after coming out of a recent work with a minor shin issue, per trainer Todd Pletcher,” the report said.

A $425,000 Keeneland November purchase, Mutasaabeq debuted a sharp 4 1/2-length winner Aug. 8 at Saratoga before finishing a distant third in the GI Runhappy Hopeful S. Uncorking a powerful last-to-first rally to take the Bourbon, he was 10th in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf before taking the Mucho Macho Man by 1 1/2 lengths in his return to the main track Jan. 2.

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Equibase Analysis: Greatest Honour Deserves Top Billing In Holy Bull

This Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes begins the three race series for sophomores at Gulfstream Park which continues with the Fountain of Youth Stakes and ends with the Florida Derby. With “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points on line, the Holy Bull is the starting off spot for many aspiring 3-year-olds hoping to prove themselves one of the 20 which can enter the starting gate in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

In terms of horses with stakes credentials, 2020 Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes winner Sittin On Go deserves mentioning, but with ninth and sixth place finishes in two starts since the win there is certainly the question of whether he can return to top form.

Papetu and Awesome Gerry recently finished second and third, respectively, in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes over the track in a one-turn mile race and if they can improve and run as well in this two-turn race may have a strong say in the outcome.

Another Holy Bull entrant with stakes form is Tarantino. The colt is trying dirt for the first time after three tries on grass, one of them a runner-up effort in the Zuma Beach Stakes last October.

Then there's an impressive pair of maiden winners from the barn of Todd Pletcher in the form of Amount and Prime Factor. Both are stretching out to two-turns off debut wins by five and three-quarter lengths and eight and three-quarter lengths, respectively.

Greatest Honour also broke his maiden in his most recent start but he did so at the distance of the Holy Bull.

Jirafales and Willy Boi enter the Holy Bull off visually impressive wins in sprints and round out the field as they stretch out in distance for the first time.

Greatest Honour started his career sprinting and finished third in two races at seven furlongs, improving from a debut 84 Equibase Speed Figure to 89 in his second start. Stretched out to two turns (nine furlongs) for career start number three in November, Greatest Honour regressed slightly to an 85 figure but ran a much better race, battling head-and-head the entire length of the stretch before losing by a head at the wire. Shipping to Gulfstream in December, Greatest Honour improved markedly at the distance of the Holy Bull when maturely rallying from seventh of nine early to win by a length and one-half. In doing so he improved to a field high 104 figure.

This appears to make him the one to beat, because even if some of the other impressive recent winners improve, they will have to improve significantly more than Greatest Honour to beat this colt, even if he just repeats his last effort. As a son of Tapit, sire of many top 3-year-olds in recent years such as Enforceable, Hofburg and Tacitus, Greatest Honour should only get better over the course of his sophomore campaign and therefore appears to be the one to beat in this year's Holy Bull Stakes.

Sittin On Go won his debut last summer impressively by four lengths in a five furlong sprint, then won the Iroquois Stakes at one mile in only the second start of his career. The improvement from an 80 figure in his debut to 95 second out portended great things for this colt, but that did not pan out. After a ninth place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and sixth place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Sittin On Go was given some time off to mature. It appears that time off helped him as he's been in steady training at Gulfstream Park for over a month. Given that he ran so well fresh last year and that his first crop sire, Brody's Cause, has had decent success, I think Sittin On Go could run well in the Holy Bull Stakes by repeating his Iroquois Stakes effort and should be considered a contender.

Papetu was overlooked in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes four weeks ago when sent to post at odds of 20 to 1. Although no match for the winner, Papetu nevertheless finished well for second in the field of nine with an 87 figure he could improve upon in his second start following four months off, so he can be given a look at the outcome as well.

Prime Factor (89 figure winning last month) and Amount (84 figure winning last month) come from the top barn of Todd Pletcher, who according to a STATS Race Lens query wins at a hefty 33 percent rate with horses which are stretching out from a sprint to a route in their second career starts. Still, asking horse to both go from maiden ranks to graded stakes and at the same time from one turn to two turns can be a big lift and considering other horses in this race have experience in stakes and routes, I think they may fall short of being able to win.

Awesome Gerry finished third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, one and one-quarter lengths from Papetu. He's earned back-to-back 84 figures and is not on the same pattern for improvement to be competitive here as some of the others in my opinion. Tarantino has two wins and a nose defeat to his credit in three career starts. In the best of those three, Tarantino finished second, beaten a nose, in the Zuma Beach Stakes in October and earned an 81 figure. As a son of Pioneer of the Nile, Tarantino should run as well on dirt but even that effort if repeated appears to fall short of what it will take to win this race. Willy Boi won at first asking then beat a restricted allowance field earlier this month, earning an 85 figure in doing so. He appears to have the same double ask of running two-turns and trying stakes for the first time as many of the others. Jirafales won at first asking in November and earned a 71 figure in doing so. Even with logical improvement as a 3-year-old it appears he could be far short of being competitive against this field.

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Greatest Honour
Sittin on Go
Papetu

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, Jan. 30 – Post Time 4:50 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $200,000

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