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Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Southwest & Withers

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides his analysis for Saturday's quartet of GI Kentucky Derby prep races.

GIII Holy Bull S. – Last year's jaw-dropping GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) finds a perfect landing spot to launch his sophomore season versus seven overmatched rivals. Not worth trying to beat him here, even if he's closer to 1-9 than his 3-5 morning-line quote.

I can't see him defeating the recently crowned 2023 champion 2-year-old, but how about Domestic Product (Practical Joke) to complete a cold exacta at a price? His maiden win two starts back in his two-turn debut at Aqueduct last fall was impressive enough to give him a pass for his no-show seventh in the GII Remsen S. in the mud last out. Training well for Chad Brown and the blinkers come off for this. Selection: #7 Fierceness (3-5).

GIII Southwest S. – Just couldn't resist taking a swing on a longshot closer in a wide-open race that seems destined for a pace meltdown. The lightly raced Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}) ran very well to finish second behind his Ken McPeek-trained stablemate and subsequent GIII Lecomte S. longshot third Lat Long (Liam's Map) in his Oaklawn Park course-and-distance debut Dec. 17. He ran to the money and kicked home beautifully in Oaklawn's short stretch to graduate next out going a mile Jan. 13 and was a supplemental entry here. Common Defense is bred to run all day (his third dam is GISW Aldiza) and he should offer plenty of value in by far the best wagering event of the four prep races on tap Saturday.

Last out stretch-running GIII Street Sense S. winner Liberal Arts (Arrogate) also makes plenty of sense here; and will also be using wise-guy horse Awesome Road (Quality Road) despite the very tough draw. Selection: #8 Common Defense (15-1).

GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) looked like a complete monster in his first two starts sprinting for Bob Baffert last term, including a runaway stalk-and-pounce win in the seven-furlong GIII Bob Hope S. last out Nov. 19. No reason to think anything can get near him here either in his first try off the bench in this first test around two turns. Good luck seeing anything near that 4-5 morning-line quote! Selection: #6 Nysos (4-5).

GIII Withers S. – Speed Runner (Gun Runner), a useful third going seven furlongs on debut, took a major step forward with a game maiden victory at the Big A over this same course and distance for Todd Pletcher while making his route debut last time Dec. 8. The half-brother to GI Blue Grass S. winner and GI Belmont S. third Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer) should work out an ideal trip beneath Jose Lezcano from his rail draw.

Deserving favorite Lightline (City of Light), a rallying second from far back behind unbeaten Southwest contender Carbone (Mitole) going a mile at Oaklawn, should appreciate the additional real estate for Brad Cox.

Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion) is an interesting longshot to consider for underneath shipping in off a better-than-it-looks win in the Wait For It S. versus state-breds at Parx. Selection: #1 Speed Runner (5-1).

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Busy Weekend For Derby Preps on Both Coasts

Saturday's graded stakes races stretch out from coast to coast and feature significant GI Kentucky Derby implications, but not entirely for the reasons we've come to expect. In South Florida, it is business as usual for the Derby preps while on the West Coast all things Kentucky Derby took an unprecedented turn.

On the heels of a very successful GI Pegasus World Cup weekend, Gulfstream Park offers a tremendous card with five graded races, including the 34th running of the GIII Holy Bull S. named for the Hall of Famer and 1994 Horse of the Year, who won that year's GI Florida Derby. Forty Kentucky Derby points are on the line with the winner collecting the lion's share.

Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief) enters off a 5 3/4-length allowance romp at a mile over this surface Jan. 8. The $450,000 KEESEP yearling purchase is out of a half to GSW Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft) and hails from the female family of MGIW Composure (Touch Gold).

“I think he's one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, and he's training like one,” trainer Dale Romans said. “There are a lot of good horses out there, but we're in a good spot right now.”

Legacy Isle (Shackleford) would be undefeated and the only stakes winner so far of the bunch after wiring the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Year's Day, but was disqualified for bothering a rival in the lane and was placed second.

Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott entered two in the Holy Bull, Rocket Can (Into Mischief) and Shadow Dragon (Army Mule).

The GIII Claiborne Swale S. doesn't offer any Derby points and isn't considered a Derby prep, but it is named after the 1984 Derby winner and Hall of Famer who died suddenly eight days after the GI Belmont S.

The streaking Super Chow (Lord Nelson) drew the outside in the six-runner test, which will be contested at seven furlongs. The winner of five of his six career races is coming off three straight listed stakes wins and makes a jump back into graded company. He broke his maiden in his debut July 2 at Gulfstream and was third in the GII Saratoga Special S. before shipping back to Florida to collect his last three wins.

“He's in his best shape ever,” trainer Jorge Delgado said. “He's been maturing race to race. He's been showing a lot of class. From race to race, he's a more professional horse. He's becoming a man.”

Not to be overshadowed by the boys, 10 fillies are set to race seven-eighths on the main track in the GIII Forward Gal S.

Atomically (Girvin) is the likely favorite in her first start since an even seventh-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Nov. 4. It was her first start for trainer Todd Pletcher after being sold privately to a group headed by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners after winning the Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. over the Gulfstream Park main track Oct. 1.

Ginger Brew S. winner Cairo Consort (Cairo Prince) is the 2-1 morning-line favorite against eight other sophomore turf fillies in the 1 1/16-mile GIII Sweetest Chant S. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly won Woodbine's Catch A Glimpse S., was second in the GI Natalma S. and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. This race will be her first start beyond a mile.

Only four will line up in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S., a 1 1/16-mile test offering 41 Road to the Derby points to the top-four finishers on a 20-8-6-4-2 scale. This is where the race's Kentucky Derby implications take a turn. Each of the four runners are trained by a single trainer and that trainer–currently–is forbidden from participating in racing at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled a record 10 winners of the Robert B. Lewis–including the last four in a row–sat in a Louisville courtroom for two days this week. His team of attorneys is seeking an injunction against his two-year ban from competing at Churchill Downs following Medina Spirit's post-race positive for the prohibited steroid betamethasone after crossing the wire first in the 2021 Derby. Medina Spirit also won the 2021 Lewis.

Arabian Lion (Justify) will lead his stablemates. The $600,000 OBSAPR 2-year-old was a dismal fifth in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 17 at odds of 2-5 but has been working lights out for his return here.

Newgate (Into Mischief) hasn't reached the winner's circle since breaking his maiden at Del Mar but was a short second in the GIII Sham S. a month ago. The $850,000 KEESEP yearling was also second to last week's GIII San Vicente S. winner and stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 20. Maiden winner Hard To Figure (Hard Spun) and maiden Worcester (Empire Maker) round out the Baffert quartet.

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White Abarrio Pulls Off 6-1 Upset In Holy Bull

C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable's White Abarrio took advantage of a favorable pace scenario to win Saturday's Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes by about five lengths, upsetting the nine-strong field as the fifth choice at odds of 6-1. Unraced since his third-place finish in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 27, White Abarrio reiterated his preference for the Gulfstream surface over which the colt won his first two races.

The 3-year-old son of Race Day pressed the early pace and took command turning for home, pulling away under Tyler Gaffalione to complete 1 1/16 miles over Gulfstream's fast main track in 1:42.80. Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., White Abarrio's victory earned him 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

After missing the break, Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Simplification (7-2) rallied in the lane to hold the place over late-running 8-5 favorite Mo Donegal in third. Galt, the full brother to champion Songbird, finished fourth, while Cajun's Magic was fifth.

“It was a big performance,” Joseph said of his winner. “We were ahead of schedule all the time and then he got sick and we missed two works. We ended up going from being ahead of schedule to being behind. Quality horses overcome those things.

“He trains like a horse that will handle a distance, but until they do, you never know for sure. I thought the [Kentucky] Jockey Club was a great education. He showed he could get two turns and today he answered it emphatically.”

Breaking near the outside of the field, White Abarrio was very sharp out of the gate and was able to make it over to the two-path to stalk unexpected pacesetter Galt. Simplification, the speed of the race on paper, was forced to make his run from seventh after missing the start.

White Abarrio kept up the pressure on Galt through fractions of :23.93 and :47.31, drawing even with that rival around the far turn. In the short run to the first wire, Gaffalione kept White Abarrio busy as the colt easily pulled away from the field to win by about five lengths. Simplification made his way up to second, and while never threatening the winner he was game to hold off the very late run from favorite Mo Donegal and secure the place. Galt faded to finish fourth.

“It was an ideal trip,” Gaffalione said. “The horse broke sharply and put me where I wanted to be. He settled nicely on the backside and when I called on him, he gave me another gear and finished the job well.

“I don't think distance is going to be a problem. He was just hitting his best stride down the lane and, galloping out, I had a really difficult time pulling him up. I was calling for the outrider.”

Bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, White Abarrio is out of the unplaced Into Mischief mare Catching Diamonds, who is a half-sister to multiple Group 3 winner Cool Cowboy. Purchased for $7,500 as a yearling at the OBS Winter sale, the colt returned to the OBS ring in March to command a final bid of $40,000. Now a three-time winner from four starts, White Abarrio boasts earnings of over $240,000.

“I would say off this, the ball is in our court, why not go straight to the [G1] Florida Derby [April 2]?” Joseph suggested. “It gives him good spacing, and …if he makes the Kentucky Derby it will be his third race [this year]. That would be ideal right now, but we'll talk it over whether to go to the [G2] Fountain of Youth [March 5] or not.”

Additional Quotes from Placed Connections:

Jockey Javier Castellano (Simplification, 2^nd): “I'm not disappointed at all. I'm very satisfied the way he did it. I know we expected to be on the lead, but we learned something. He's starting to develop himself, and the good thing it seems to me that he doesn't have to be on the lead. He proved that he can come from behind, also. The first time going two turns, he did it and he did it really well. He finished up really good. The other horse, he got the jump and unfortunately we had the bad break.”

“He didn't break sharp out of the gate. There was so much noise and everybody screaming 'no' and he backed up a little bit. When he backed up they opened the gate. It was the wrong time when they opened the door and he didn't break sharp. But I don't have anything negative with the horse. I'm very positive on the horse. I think he's going to move forward. He was running at the end and he was galloping out good. I think he's a really nice horse. He put himself right behind horses and I let him feel the dirt in the face and then angled out a little bit to give him a little break and keep track of the horses. He did it really well.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher (Mo Donegal, 3^rd): “I thought he finished really well, it just took him a little while to get out in the clear and get going. The last hundred yards he was making up a lot of ground. He just kind of ran out real estate at the end. I was happy with the way he closed. It actually kind of hurt us that [Simplification] didn't break well because it kind of altered the fractions of the race and there wasn't a whole lot of pace on and that's always a disadvantage at Gulfstream. I was pleased with the horse's performance. He ran well and finished up good.”

Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (Mo Donegal, 3^rd): “I had a little stumble out of there. It was the last thing I wanted to happen, but it happened. I went to Plan B after that. I tried to save some ground and try not to be too far and I had to keep on him to help him to improve my position the whole time. He still finished good. He was in some position by the second turn. I didn't want to be waiting by the three-eighths pole because I know my horse. I know he needs to go start going a little earlier but I had nowhere to go, so I had to wait and go around them into the clear and he was flying at the end, honestly. He ran a good race.”

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Holy Bull: Simplification Should Appreciate More Distance, ‘Ratable’ Tiz The Bomb Returns To Dirt

Tami Bobo's Simplification stretched out to a mile for his stakes debut in the Jan. 1 Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream, and the Antonio Sano-trained colt rolled to a four-length front-running victory without taking a deep breath.

The 3-year-old son of Not This Time broke his maiden at six furlongs by 16 ¾ lengths in 1:09.81 on the front end in his second career start, but his trainer was convinced that he wanted more ground after having a rough go of things in his next start at six furlongs. After breaking from the rail, he set a pressured early pace and finished third behind talented sprinter Of a Revolution, a prominent entrant in Saturday's $100,000 Claiborne Swale (G3).

“After the race before the Mucho Macho Man, I started training him for long races. I think that more distance is better for my horse,” Sano said. “I gave him open gallops to make him strong for the Mucho Macho Man, and after the Mucho Macho Man, I continued to do the same thing.”

Sano saddled Gunnevera for a second-place finish in the 2017 Holy Bull before his last-to-first 5 ¾-length victory in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his next start.

“They are different horses. Gunnevera had only one pace and made one run,” Sano said. “This horse can relax or can go to the front. You can put the horse wherever you want him.”

Hall of Famer Javier Castellano, who rode the $5.5 million-earning Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth, has the return call aboard Simplification for Saturday's Holy Bull.

Phoenix Thoroughbreds LTD's Tiz the Bomb has shown himself to be a talented colt on turf, but trainer Kenny McPeek isn't quite ready to classify him as a turf horse just yet.

The son of Hit It a Bomb is coming off a late-closing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar that followed a victory in the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland, but he also broke his maiden on dirt in an off-the-turf race at Ellis Park by 14 ¼ lengths.

“I think a good horse can do that. He's out of a Tiznow mare and his sire's line is War Front. I don't think you have to pigeonhole him as a turf horse,” McPeek said. “The only reason he ran turf last fall was because we had some other 2-year-olds that were ready scheduled for races, and I wanted to keep them separated. This time it's his chance to show how good he is.”

McPeek expressed confidence in his colt's chances in the Holy Bull, the first graded stakes for 3-year-olds on the Road to the Curlin Florida Derby (G1).

“He's probably going to show a little more pace in this race and we're going to let him run free and do his thing. He's very ratable,” McPeek said. “When he broke his maiden at a mile at Ellis, he ran off and won by 14 lengths. I don't have that expectation for this race, but I do expect him to run good.”

Brian Hernandez Jr. will travel from Fair Grounds for the Holy Bull.

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