The Parting Gift of Don Bernardo

So just what are those Derby gods up to now? What seeds of comfort, of commemoration, did they sow in the grief of last summer?

Bernardo Alvarez Calderon was not just patriarch of a large and loving family, but something of a godfather for the entire Thoroughbred racing and breeding community of Peru. Its esteem was palpable after his loss last August, aged 78, following a fall. The president of the national breeders' association described him as “a horseman par excellence, whose contribution to our breed will last forever; an example for us all, both in his knowledge and his passion.” Another leading breeder suggested the ultimate tribute lay in their own hands: “Someday, I hope, we can all arrive at his type of horse; can all do things the way Don Bernardo did them.”

Nor should that ambition be confined to his countrymen. Don Bernardo–who excelled in show jumping in his younger days, but whose goatee and spectacles ultimately gave him rather a professorial air–was also much respected in the U.S. It was here that Teneri Stable, a small satellite of his Haras La Qallana, produced no less a horse than GI Pegasus World Cup winner Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man).

And now his family and friends, approaching a first spring without Don Bernardo, find themselves wondering whether the first flowers of consolation, in the garland draped over the GII Tampa Bay Derby winner last Saturday, could yet bloom into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May. For Helium (Ironicus), now unbeaten in three starts, traces four generations to Don Bernardo's very first American purchase, a pregnant mare named Redwing Blackbird acquired for $9,600 at Fasig-Tipton in January 1986.

Don Bernardo's family with Stella Thayer and the Tampa Bay Derby garland | Courtesy of Gabriela Alvarez Calderon

In gratefully accepting the Tampa Bay garland, on behalf of Helium's owners D.J. Stable, Don Bernardo's daughter Gabriela could not help sensing that the colt's GI Kentucky Derby candidature has a unique benediction. On the way home she rang Jon Green, manager of D.J. Stable. “I just want to let you know that my dad is looking down on us and smiling,” she said. “I really appreciate the fact that you've allowed me and my family to stay involved in this horse, because he belongs to the last group that my dad actually bred.”

She told Green that she had been holding back tears in the winner's circle. “Because she knew it was all about her father,” Green explains. “It was her father that had gone against conventional wisdom, breeding to this $5,000 stallion.”

“It was so special,” assents Gabriela. “I don't even have words for it. I was there with my brother and his children, and we just feel like we're receiving so many incredible gifts. My father was a genius with horses. When he started breeding, he came up with a [Peruvian] Triple Crown winner within four years. He breathed, dreamed, talked of nothing but horses. And such a horseman: he could get on anything and a minute later it would be like he had been riding that horse all his life. And when he planned a mating, he would already be thinking ahead to three generations on.”

Don Barnardo had a sixth sense for horses. At Keeneland November in 2006, for instance, he bought a Rahy mare for $16,000 and a daughter of Sadler's Wells for $60,000. The foals they had respectively delivered the previous year turned out to be dual Grade I winner Life At Ten (Malibu Moon) and four-time Group 1 winner Campanologist (Kingmambo). In the same ring, a couple of months previously, he had bought a Touch Gold yearling for $7,000. The following year her half-sister Ginger Punch (Awesome Again) won the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Don Bernardo with Emilia's Moon, Helium's half-sister | Courtesy of Gabriela Alvarez Calderon

It tells you everything about the wholesome nature of Don Bernardo's bequest to the breed that he named Teneri for the example of Federico Tesio and his iconic champions, Nearco (Ity) and Ribot (GB). (Each donated the first two letters of his name to form the composite Te-ne-ri.) Similarly, his choice of Shawhan Place as nursery for his U.S. stock–where their supervision includes two sons of that doyen of Kentucky horsemen, Gus Koch–attested to his faith in the best principles of the old school. (How typical of this up-and-down business that the Shawhan team, derailed from the Derby trail by a setback for graduate Senor Buscador (Mineshaft), should find themselves back with a rooting interest just days later.)

As such, it's not hard to imagine what appealed to Don Bernardo about Redwing Blackbird. Her sire Bold Favorite was admittedly not one of Bold Ruler's significant sons, but represented a fine Argentinian family. More importantly, her own maternal line brought into play trademark Tesio influences and, in turn, the stud of the 17th Earl of Derby–itself so key to the Italian's work. (Redwing Blackbird's second dam was by Bold Ruler's sire Nasrullah, duly securing a 3×3 foothold to this great conduit of Nearco.)

Redwing Blackbird was carrying a Proud Appeal filly, who became the graded stakes-placed Proud Emilia. Bred to Saint Ballado a couple of times before being sent to her owner's homeland, she produced a Peruvian champion miler, Domingo, who eventually stood at Haras La Qallana; and Saint Emilia (Per), a local Grade III winner/Grade I runner-up who made the reverse migration for her own breeding career, joining the Teneri broodmare band. (This has never exceeded nine mares, compared with around 40 on the Peruvian farm.)

“She was only 440, 460 kilos but beat the colts many times,” Gabriela says. “When people at the sales said her foals were little, I would tell them that this was a family of small horses that could run big.” Four of Saint Emilia's daughters have duly become stakes producers, mostly in Peru though the most accomplished, Thundering Emilia, did transfer to the U.S. to win an 8 1/2-furlong turf stake for Michael Matz.

Helium is Thundering Emilia's fourth foal. A couple of her previous ones have already excelled: Emilia's Moon (Malibu Moon), as a Peruvian Classic winner; and graded-stakes placed Mighty Scarlett (Scat Daddy). Despite their contributions to his page, Helium was by a sire struggling for commercial traction and the $55,000 given by Cool Hill Farm at Fasig-Tipton October made him the most expensive yearling of that debut crop.

“Matt Koch at Shawhan had said that he was an incredible colt from the moment he was born,” Gabriela remembers. “We were there with Dad, at the sale, and those Ironicus babies weren't selling. So we said we would keep him if he didn't make more than $50,000. Unfortunately he did, just!”

Helium had been bought as a pinhooking project for Bo Hunt, but fell into the juvenile auction cycle that was so disrupted by the onset of the pandemic last year.

“My parents are in their 80s, it wasn't on the cards to travel down there to the sales,” Green recalls. “But we've known Bo for 15, 20 years, and knew we could trust him enough to ask: 'Out of the 70-something you have, who are your top three or four candidates?'”

Hunt came up with a shortlist, and trainer Mark Casse went over to see them gallop. He didn't take to one; they couldn't quite agree on a price for another, who turned out to be Miss Brazil (Palace Malice), an excellent second in the Busher S. last weekend; and two that D.J. Stable did buy. One of those was Helium.

Helium ran to a 4 1/4-length triumph in Woodbine's Display S. last year | Michael Burns

Though he won on debut at Woodbine in late September and then followed up in a stake over the same seven furlongs of Tapeta, things then started to conspire against the colt. Woodbine suspended first for snow; then for the pandemic. Shipped to Fair Grounds, Helium was nearing a return when he wrenched an ankle. In the circumstances, then, nobody should underestimate the talent underpinning a pretty extraordinary performance last weekend.

This was Helium's first start in nearly five months; and his first ever on dirt, or round a second turn. The idea had been that if he was going to experiment on the surface, he might as well stay local to Palm Meadows; and they could get a seasoned reading from Jose Ferrer, who actually won a race in these silks as long ago as 1987. They told him simply to keep out of the kickback, and not to punish him if the wheels were spinning. Sure enough, Helium raced wide the whole way until sweeping round the field on the far turn and grabbing the rail into the stretch. Understandably, that big move seemed to tell, and he was headed around the eighth pole. Outrageously, however, he then rallied to win going away.

Len and Jon Green | Fasig-Tipton photo

“He literally had a half a dozen excuses not to hit the wire first,” Green says. “We were asking him to do so many things that were out of his wheelhouse. But when Jose asked him, he just exploded. And then to see him put the other horse away, that's what got us really excited. We would have been very satisfied to run second, and have something to build upon. The fact that he had something left in the tank, and also had the interest to continue to run, is frankly mind-boggling.”

Training up to the Derby is obviously a bold move, but Helium has himself a gate and has shown that he excels when fresh. The other obvious reservation, to conventional thinking, will be his pedigree. We've already seen how Don Bernardo rooted this family in Classic influences, but Helium remains one of just four winners to this point by his young sire.

These, however, remain the earliest of days for a stallion certain to advance his stock with maturity; and one who simply doesn't have the numbers behind him to permit standard commercial comparisons.

Ironicus was homebred by Claiborne's longstanding client, Stuart S. Janney III, and returned to his native farm after maturing at four and five into one of the better turf runners in North America, just missing his Grade I by a head in the Shadwell Turf Mile. The son of Distorted Humor had the page, for sure: four siblings had won graded stakes (divided between turf and dirt), while his third dam is second dam of Flatter (A.P. Indy) (therefore also the family of Sea Hero, Roar, Congrats, etc).

Sadly the commercial market's puerile terror of slower-maturing/turf horses means that Ironicus covered only a couple of dozen mares last spring–but he's absolutely entitled to breed a Classic racehorse, on any surface, granted the support of breeders as far-sighted as Don Bernardo. It goes without saying that he is on the right farm for that, so perhaps Helium is about to reward those who persevered through a phase of his sire's career that was always going to require patience.

“I guess people will say it's a question mark on Helium's resume, that he's not by Tapit or Into Mischief,” Green acknowledges. “But if you look at his pedigree and race record, Ironicus checks a lot of boxes; while the female family brings in very respected broodmare sires.”

Mighty Scarlett | Sarah Andrew

D.J. Stable has duly doubled down on those genes. Helium's half-sister Mighty Scarlett, now a 6-year-old, was acquired for $240,000 at the Keeneland November Sale and sent to Uncle Mo, while a foal-sharing agreement has been negotiated on Helium's dam Thundering Emilia, with an American Pharoah covering. (Teneri, by the way, offered the dam of Mucho Gusto at the same November Sale but retained her at $500,000. She has since delivered a Medaglia d'Oro filly at Shawhan, and was this week covered by Uncle Mo.)

“My dad has an accounting firm that has 750-something Thoroughbred-related clients, so we're able to drill down on a lot of questions with people that have even more experience than we do,” Green says. “And this is something I noticed that Darby Dan would do, years ago, and Claiborne: collect family members when they felt like they had a good runner. That way, a positive change in a family would appear on three or four or five different assets. We've tried to replicate that.”

Whatever Helium can still do for the pedigree, the one guarantee is that the whole team will enjoy the ride.

“My dad said to me this morning: 'There are only a couple of things that got me more excited than this race–and those were meeting your mother, and when your sisters were born!'” says Green with a chuckle. “So yeah, this is a highlight in our 40 years in the business. We've been very fortunate: we've won a Breeders' Cup, we campaigned a champion, bred a champion. Years ago we even ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby, Songandaprayer [Unbridled's Song]. So we've had a great run in this wonderful business. But this is the first time I can remember having a horse that just checks all the boxes.”

One of those, of course, is a Hall of Fame trainer–something that heightens confidence in the unorthodoxy of the strategy now. Green knew not to expect big speed figures out of Saturday: the performance was all about context, and the eyeball test. “I honestly don't know if he's good enough to beat Life Is Good [Into Mischief] or those other top horses,” he says. “But I know that we're giving him the best chance possible.”

And it's not just his own family's long commitment to the game that could be consummated here. Another lifetime of study, patience and skill is dovetailing with their own cause. The Greens are delighted, then, to be sharing with his family this posthumous flourish from Don Bernardo.

“Gabriela is such a wonderful, kind individual,” Green says. “She's modest and humble, and just feels that this horse is carrying the banner for her late father, and for his family's love for him. So we just feel like everything's falling into place. It's a tremendous gift that we have, with this horse. So yes, maybe there are some racing gods smiling on us.”

“I really feel that with all these incredible things happening, it's one of those things in life that makes sense,” Gabriela says. “I feel Dad knows; I feel he's close to us. I know the passion he had, all his life, and this is the reward for that dedication.”

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Life Is Good … Getting Better

Last week's grading period came and went without a Report Card on the winners of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream Park, the G3 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn and the listed John Battaglia Memorial Stakes from Turfway Park. The author got a little behind on his homework.

We'll review those three races from Feb. 26-27 and three big 85 point Kentucky Derby preps that were run last Saturday: the G2 Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct, G2 Tampa Bay Derby from Tampa Bay Downs and G2 San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita. The winners of those three races assured themselves a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 1.

Of the six races, I'd have to rank the San Felipe the most impactful, at least in recent history, with two of the last seven winners (Authentic in 2020 and California Chrome in 2014) having gone on to victory in the Kentucky Derby. At the other end of the spectrum is the John Battaglia Memorial which has a roster of winners that reads like a “who's that?” Strikingly more significant than the Battaglia is the Gotham, which hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner from among its winners since Triple Crown winner Secretariat in 1973. There have been some very good horses since then to win the Gotham, but not so much in the last decade. Let's face it: the best New York horses are still in Florida on the first Saturday in March.

Here's a quick analysis of all the points races of the past two weeks, from best to worst in terms of my grading scale, which is based on my personal eyeball test, Beyer Speed Figures received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

March 6 – San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Was not that impressed with Life Is Good's G3 Sham Stakes victory on Jan. 2 when he idled down the stretch and was threatened late by Bob Baffert stablemate Medina Spirit, but the eight-length San Felipe win was something else again. The Into Mischief colt was simply too fast for his opposition, breaking from the rail under Mike Smith, controlling a quick pace (quarter miles in :23.63, :23.20, :23.72 and :24.91 before a final sixteenth in 6.72 seconds), and drawing off impressively while a bit erratic down the stretch, eventually finishing out in the middle of the track.

Life Is Good and Mike Smith winning the San Felipe Stakes by eight lengths

The San Felipe was G2 and included stakes veterans Medina Spirit, The Great One and Roman Centurian and impressive recent maiden winner Dream Shake for Peter Eurton (receiving a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on his debut).

Life Is Good received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, up from his 101 in the Sham, and that puts him on the top of the heap at this stage of the season. Future wager players made him 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager's March pool, the lowest odds for any individual horse in the March pool since the wager was inaugurated.

Grade: A

Feb. 27 – Southwest Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn

It's hard to find fault with Brad Cox-trained Essential Quality, who ran his record to a perfect 4-for-4 while making his 2021 debut in the twice-delayed Southwest, run on a very sloppy racetrack. Breaking from the No. 1 post, jockey Luis Saez cleverly moved him to the three path into the first turn and sat just a few lengths behind quick but distance challenged Jackie's Warrior for a moderate six furlongs in 1:13.59. Saez moved the Tapit colt to the lead on the turn and it was quickly over as he drew off to a 4 ¼-length victory while demonstrating a paddling motion with his left front down the stretch.

Essential Quality rolled to his fourth consecutive win in the Southwest, his 2021 debut

Aside from the winner and Jackie's Warrior (a two-time G1 winner going one turn as a 2-year-old), the only other proven commodity in the Southwest lineup was Spielberg, the Baffert runner who won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose over The Great One, a maiden at the time who came back to beat non-winners by 14 lengths and then was crushed by Life Is Good in the San Felipe. Essential Quality received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, one point higher than his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory.

Grade: A-

Feb. 27 – Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park

Not unlike Essential Quality in the Southwest, even-money favorite  Greatest Honour (also by Tapit) was chasing a fast one-turn horse, Drain the Clock, unsuccessfully trying to stretch his speed around two turns in the Fountain of Youth.

For most of the race, the Shug McGaughey runner did not look comfortable while racing in eighth and ninth in the 10-horse field. When Jose Ortiz guided him five wide to the outside on the far turn, he took off, gaining five lengths in the final furlong and drawing away to a 1 ½-length victory. He received an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, identical to the number he got while winning the Holy Bull Stakes four weeks earlier.

Greatest Honour and Jose Ortiz winning the Fountain of Youth

However, he made up ground on a horse that doesn't want to go this far, and if Greatest Honour doesn't like getting dirt in his face with a 10-horse field at Gulfstream, what's it going to be like at Churchill Downs with an expected 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby? It doesn't appear as if his connections have an option to put him closer to the lead as he has yet to show any tactical speed.

Grade: B+

March 6 – Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs

Mark Casse-trained Helium first caught my eye last fall at Woodbine when he displayed a very nice turn of foot to win the listed Display Stakes going away. That race was on the Canadian track's Tapeta synthetic surface and Helium is from the first crop of Ironicus, a Distorted Humor stallion who only won on turf during his 15-race career from ages 2 to 5. I was skeptical that he could pack the same punch on dirt.

I was also skeptical of the Tampa Bay Derby favorite, Candy Man Rocket, who was coming off a win in the G3 Sam F. Davis over the same track that I graded a C- because it looked as though the Candy Ride colt was being stretched to the limit distance wise.

Helium had shown speed in his sprint starts at Woodbine and Casse's Plan A was for jockey Jose Ferrer to put him close to the lead. That went out the window when he broke slowly and had just two horses beat for the opening quarter mile.

Helium won for the third time in three starts, taking the Tampa Bay Derby under Jose Ferrer

Ferrer kept Helium to the far outside in the run down the backstretch and around the far turn, and Casse's runner was battling for the lead with front-running Boca Boy, who'd led and then tired in the stretch in the Sam F. Davis. Helium put him away, then was quickly joined by third-place Sam F. Davis finisher Hidden Stash, who pressed Helium for the final furlongs but couldn't get past, losing by three-quarters in a nice effort.

The winner's 84 Beyer Speed Figure compared favorably to his 75 on Tapeta last October but is low among the Derby prep race winners this winter. Casse has talked about not running the horse again before the Kentucky Derby, so although Helium would enter the classic unbeaten in three starts, he'd still be a pretty big price.

Grade: C+

March 6 – Gotham Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct

Chad Brown-trained Highly Motivated was the heavy favorite here as he made his first start since winning the listed Nyquist Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs at Keeneland on the Breeders' Cup undercard Nov. 6. He bobbled at the start, then had a nightmare trip with traffic in the early stages of this one-turn mile race. Second betting choice was Freedom Fighter, coming off a second-place finish in the G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita for Bob Baffert, losing to highly touted stablemate Concert Tour by a half-length.

Freedom Fighter broke sharply and led through moderate fractions while being dogged by 46-1 longshot Weyburn, a James Jerkens-trained colt by Pioneerof the Nile ridden by Trevor McCarthy. Weyburn put the Baffert runner away inside the quarter pole then was challenged by Chad Brown's other runner, Crowded Trade, who, like Weyburn broke his maiden this winter at Aqueduct. Crowded Trade, a More Than Ready colt, put his nose in front inside the furlong pole but Weyburn fought back in the final yards to prevail by a nose.

Weyburn (inside) re-rallied in deep stretch to win the Gotham over Crowded Trade

The top two horses received a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, with Highly Motivated finishing third, 1 ¾ lengths back after a tough trip, and earning a 92 Beyer. As I wrote in the intro, the best of the New York Thoroughbred population head south to Florida for the winter and both Weyburn and Crowded Trade remained in New York. Highly Motivated trained for his debut at Payson Park in Florida and probably will accomplish more than the two who beat him.

Grade: C

Feb. 26 – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turfway Park

A workmanlike victory in his stakes debut gave the William Morey-trained Hush of a Storm 10 Kentucky Derby points in the Battaglia and he received an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.

The Creative Cause colt didn't do anything wrong in winning the Battaglia on the synthetic Tapeta surface at the Northern Kentucky track, but there was not a lot behind him, with the exception of Gretzky the Great, who'd won the G1 Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine last year. He'll need more points, obviously, and the only way to earn them will be on the dirt and against much stiffer competition.

Grade: C-

 

 

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Connections Confirm Helium To Go Straight to Derby

Helium (Ironicus), an impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday, will not have another Kentucky Derby prep and will go straight to the race in Louisville the first Saturday in May, according to Jon Green, the general manager of DJ Stables, the owner of the colt.

Green announced the news on the TDN Writers' Room podcast Wednesday.

“I'm pleased to make the formal announcement on our podcast that I sat down with the owners, my parents and Mark Casse, who between them have a collective 80 years of experience in the horse industry,” said Green. “We're going to go an unconventional route and bypass the rest of the Kentucky Derby preps and train him in Florida at Palm Meadows, and then ship him to Churchill Downs three weeks before.”

Green admitted that it was an unconditional route to the race, but said, “It's not unreasonable in history to give a horse eight weeks off and ask him to run in a big race like this. Is it perfect? It's not perfect. Are there risks? Yes. But we feel what's best for the horse is to give him the time and slowly peak him into the Kentucky Derby, which is our primary goal.”

Green said that unlike other horses looking to peak in May, that DJ Stables hoped to race the horse after the Derby and throughout the summer with a focus on the Haskell at Monmouth, which is held near their home in Monmouth County, New Jersey.

“Our goal is not to run him in the Blue Grass, or a race like that because we think he doesn't need it,” said Green. “Running in a prep, so many things could go wrong, and our main goal is to run him in the Derby and then the races afterwards. We're looking at it through a different prism.”

While Jose Ferrer won the Tampa Bay Derby aboard Helium, Green also said that the Derby riding assignment was currently up in the air.

“Jose did a great job on him and won the Tampa Bay Derby on him, but we are looking for other options with jockeys,” said Green. “For the same reason riding Jose at Tampa Bay made sense, you have to have somebody who has the experience in big races and the experience at Churchill Downs. That's no disrespect to Jose, but I would think we would need to explore other opportunities.”

The complete discussion on Helium will be available on the TDN Writers' Room podcast which will be posted tonight.

 

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9

This week's edition represents the most movement within the Top 12 all season. But brace yourself: the nine-furlong preps are next, and so are the juicier qualifying points opportunities. The GI Kentucky Derby forecast is for continued–but intriguing–volatility.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

If Greatest Honour continues on his path to prominence, one of the more intriguing storylines of Derby 147 will be how Courtlandt Farms privately bought dam Tiffany's Honour in foal to Tapit after she RNA'd for $2.3 million in at Fasig-Tipton November in 2015. The foal she delivered was a striking individual, but the tale took a tragic twist when that colt was later killed in a paddock accident. Tiffany's Honour had already been bred back to War Front, but the following year Courtlandt mated her with Tapit again. The result is Greatest Honour, and you can read in a more detailed TDN column by colleague Chris McGrath how even as a yearling, Greatest Honour resonated as “the 'whole package'–a big, leggy, scopey, rangy horse; correct, well-made, good bone, everything.” Greatest Honour competed in a trio of “loaded” New York MSW races, then punched through to the elite level with a trio of emphatic victories (two of them stakes) at Gulfstream. All of those wins were at 1 1/16 miles, which trainer Shug McGuaghey has described as too short for this distance-centric deep closer. Yes, you can argue that Greatest Honour hasn't posted any elite-level Beyer Speed Figures to legitimize the visually impressive nature of his wins. That could be a concern moving forward, as no fewer than 27 performances by 3-year-olds on dirt so far in 2021 have earned Beyers above Greatest Honour's career-best 89. But it won't stop this powerhouse colt from going off legitimately favored in the GI Florida Derby.

2) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC; B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Front-running phenom Life Is Good has now paired two daunting triple-digit Beyers (101 and 107). But the most astounding number associated with this 'TDN Rising Star' is the 2-1 favoritism he earned in Sunday's Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager. This marked only the fourth time in 19 years that the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” did not close as the March chalk. Saturday's win in the GII San Felipe S. was nothing short of scintillating. This $525,000 KEESEP purchase colt broke alertly from the rail, then bounded confidently onto the backstretch while intent on his work, but not keyed up about it. He maintained a three-length cushion through robust splits (:46.83 and 1:10.55), and when the closest three competitors all came under drives three-eighths out, jockey Mike Smith kept his mount in hand yet still managed to increase the gap. Life Is Good got momentarily distracted sailing solo through the stretch while drifting out (Smith said it was the video board) but won comfortably by eight lengths without ever having to give his all. Baffert acknowledged post-race his colt is “still green,” but quickly reminded that so, too, was 2020 Derby champ Authentic at this time last year. I'm still not quite ready to drape a blanket of roses around Life Is Good's broad, bay shoulders, though. He's raced just three times (twice against only four overmatched rivals), and none of the horses he's trounced is currently ranked as Top 12 contenders.

3) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality seamlessly bridged the gap between his juvenile championship season and his first start age three with one of those athletic, high-cruising, multiple-geared performances that have evolved as his hallmark over a 4-for-4 career. This Godolphin homebred colt's 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. score showed that racing in the slop is not a problem, and “EQ” has already won once (albeit sprinting) over the Churchill surface, which is another plus on his Derby progression checklist. He matches well with jockey Luis Saez, who very calmly executed an important lesson in patient rating when EQ was into the bit and initially wanted to pull about five furlongs out in the Southwest. Having said all of that, one box that remains unchecked is how EQ will fare once he gets his first taste of serious in-race adversity. In all three of his stakes wins, EQ's athleticism and tactical prowess have enabled Saez to pick outside positions well clear of potential trip trouble. And in no races has EQ had to deal with multiple waves of top-caliber closers. The four horses who chased him home for second and third in his two Grade I wins last autumn were 94-1, 52-1, 30-1 and 10-1, and none is a Top 12 contender.

4) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River will start favored in Saturday's GII Rebel S. based on his ability to quickly reach a high cruising speed and sustain it under pressure while never seeming to get anxious about it. Probables listed by Oaklawn suggest a likely field of eight, and the main competition for this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable figures to be Concert Tour (Street Sense), a fellow 'Rising Star' trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the Rebel seven times in its previous 12 runnings), and Keepmeinmind (Laoban), the deep-closing 80-Beyer victor of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill. Trainer Brad Cox told Horse Racing Nation last week that among his three Derby candidates–No. 3 Essential Quality and No. 5 Mandaloun (Into Mischief) are the others–Caddo River is “probably the fastest of the three, just based off how they breeze.” Cox added that despite that breakaway nature, “Caddo River is definitely the most laid back of the three.” Caddo River's company line from his blowout win in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. upticked slightly on Saturday when fourth-place Moonlite Strike (Liam's Map), came back to run third at 34-1 in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun's past performance cut alone is impressive enough to merit inclusion among the A-list sophomores. He's 3-for-4 with Beyers that have ascended in every race, and his only loss was a third-place try, beaten only a length, in his stakes and two-turn debut. But as the 4-to-5 fave in that GIII Lecomte S. loss, this Into Mischief homebred for Juddmonte couldn't seal the deal in an unfocused effort. Even after Mandaloun rebounded with a blinkers-on GII Risen Star S. win, jockey Florent Geroux said, “He's never given me his full potential.” Mandaloun will hit his third birthdate two days before his next expected start in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby, so maybe he's not that far off from stepping it up, maturity-wise. With 52 points, he's currently third on the qualifying list to start in Louisville, so it's not imperative that he produce an over-the-top effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Right now it might be best to consider Mandaloun the highest-ranked “work in progress” horse within the Top 12–with the expectation that his production needs to catch up to his potential within the next 7 1/2 weeks.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

Proxy has never been worse than second in five lifetime outs, but you have to go back to a Dec. 19 N2L allowance win at Fair Grounds to find the performance that indicates how this colt is capable of controlling a race. Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse field, Proxy brushed the gate, confidently assumed command, conceded the lead between calls, then re-rallied to fight off a two-pronged stretch attack. Trainer Mike Stidham has been working this Tapit homebred in blinkers in preparation for the Louisiana Derby, with an eye on improving upon two runner-up efforts in which Proxy didn't always seem fully engaged. This colt's older sister, Micheline (Bernardini), another Godolphin homebred trained by Stidham, just won her first graded race on Saturday in the GII Hillsborough S. at Tampa. She had started her career 1-for-4, but after Stidham added blinkers late in her 2-year-old season, Micheline blossomed into a much-improved 4-for-9 streak, with three of those wins in grass stakes, plus a near-miss second against Grade I company at Keeneland. If the addition of blinkers has the same effect on little bro Proxy, look out.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-1-3, $261,420.
Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13.
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 26.

Midnight Bourbon resurfaces within the Top 12 after getting leap-frogged the last several weeks. The more I look at him, the more I now agree with trainer Steve Asmussen that he could be setting up nicely for a rebound race. When this $525,000 KEESEP colt wired the Lecomte S., he set a moderate, unchallenged pace and won with plenty in the tank, earning a Beyer that subsequently got revised upward from a 91 to a 93. When third next out in the Risen Star S., Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (midway on the far turn and again at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers. The imposingly long 1,346-foot stretch at Fair Grounds is often thought of as an advantage to closers. Yet the last three Louisiana Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses, including a wire job in last year's renewal, which was the first at the race's newly elongated distance of 1 3/16 miles. A son of Tiznow just now getting tight in his third start off the layoff for a trainer who has won this race three times? Sounds like a mild upset in the making.

8) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

With eight starts under his belt, Spielberg is not your typical million-dollar yearling (KEESEP) that trainer Bob Baffert might nudge along the Derby trail with only a handful of well-spaced starts. After running second and third as a maiden against Grade I stakes company last September (favored in one of those races), this Union Rags colt is being given every opportunity to prove he belongs as a late bloomer at age three. His two wins were in a Del Mar MSW at a mile by a neck (in which the jock lost the whip) and in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose (when Spielberg was all out to reel in a 33-1 maiden). But the best race on his resume is his most recent effort, a second-place try in the Southwest S. behind champ Essential Quality. Racing in the slop for the first time, Spielberg was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then ran along well late to earn a credible second (despite no real chance to catch the winner because of how far behind he put himself at the start). Considering his sire won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S., longer distances could be his launch pad.

9) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

This son of Curlin has the distinction of beating the current No. 1 kingpin on this list in an Aqueduct MSW back in November. But while Greatest Honour then went on a three-race win tear to vault him into the No. 1 spot, Known Agenda stalled for two starts before righting himself with a rip-roaring 11-length, blinkers-on win in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 26. Perhaps this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG didn't care for the sealed and sloppy track when he got bumped off stride at the start of the GII Remsen S., and his 3-2 favored loss when fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. might just be a case of not liking the sandy (and often quirky) Tampa track. But this chestnut attacked with metronomic precision after stalking a three-way duel in his Gulfstream comeback, unleashing a confident far-turn move before pouring it on in deep stretch. With two wins already at 1 1/8 miles, trainer Todd Pletcher is now considering the Florida Derby. But in addition to blinkers, Known Agenda also got a dose of Lasix for the first time in that allowance win, and he'll have to forego that medication in the Florida Derby as per new phase-out rules that now prohibit Lasix in the nation's top stakes.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY);
T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $287,763. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Not everything has gone as planned in trainer Mark Casse's preparations for Helium. Yet now this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop colt by Ironicus is 3-for-3 after a 15-1 win in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (84 Beyer). After starting his career at Woodbine, a planned November stakes race there got cancelled. Casse then shipped Helium to Fair Grounds to try the Derby preps there, but Casse told DRF.com last week that the colt wrenched an ankle, so he sent him to his farm in Ocala. As Helium progressed, the Tampa Derby looked convenient from both a timing and close-to-home perspective. And now, for the fourth year in a row, that stakes has been won by a long shot. Helium was four wide while unhurried into the club turn, stalked midpack about six paths off the rail down the backstretch, then emerged from a far-turn logjam to get first run on a caving pacemaker. He had enough left to fight back when hooked in deep stretch by a fresh closer who had outside momentum, and deftly repulsed that bid. Although Helium is not currently a Triple Crown nominee, D J Stable racing manager Jon Green told TDN right after the win that this colt will be supplemented for $6,000 by the March deadline.

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking, who just celebrated his third birthdate Mar. 7,  is the only Top 12 horse currently wintering in New York. This $240,000 KEESEP Medaglia d'Oro colt also stands out as the rare Derby contender (along with Known Agenda) to boast two wins already at nine furlongs—a crucial distance that many Derby aspirants have yet to even attempt. His 89-Beyer Withers win was the result of a comfortable midpack stalking trip followed by a powerful move to collar a fading leader, and it gave the impression of more in the tank. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he'll opt for two months between starts and aim for the GII Wood Memorial S. so he can keep Risk Taking at the distance and track over which the colt is 2-for-2.

12) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'OroEnrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Allowance/optional claimer, GP, Mar. 11.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence will see action in Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream, an allowance-optional claimer at a one-turn mile. He's a touch under the gun timing-wise after missing some February training because of a brief fever, but the plan for this Godolphin homebred still leaves room for a required start in a qualifying points stakes prep to try and garner entry into the Derby. This son of Medaglia d'Oro soared home by 8 1/2 lengths his Jan. 23 debut. That seven-furlong MSW appeared very deep on paper at the time, but six horses have now run back out of that race and only one was a next-out winner.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): This 2-for-2 Gary and Mary West homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' is on trainer Baffert's traveling team, shipping to Oaklawn for Saturday's Rebel S.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): One-run closer is a bit farther off the Derby radar than most, but this colt was the only one gaining in the stretch of the Davis, then mounted the only serious stretch challenge in the Tampa Derby after running off in the pre-race warmups.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): Prepping for the Rebel S., jockey David Cohen said this late-running colt's most recent work featured a “nice, long gallop out, with nothing too rapid. I was very happy with the way he broke off. He has a tendency to get real tough. He did it really relaxed.”

Medina Spirit (Protonico): Baffert-trained overachiever, who hammered for just $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 at OBSOPN, was second behind stablemate Life Is Good on Saturday but is clearly not in the same league. “He's a good horse and we needed to run first or second to continue on” with Derby preps, Baffert said, adding that the Santa Anita Derby of GI Arkansas Derby are possibilities.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): This 46-1 upsetter of the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. racked up a big-league 95 Beyer. He's not Triple Crown nominated, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens said he will likely be supplemented for $6,000. No next-race commitment yet.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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