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Equibase Analysis: Midnight Bourbon Poised To Upset Haskell

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park drew a field of seven, led by Grade 1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun and third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, both of whom have run well since then. Mandaloun won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth since the Derby, while Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, so both enter the Haskell in top form.

Midnight Bourbon finished sixth in the Derby before a second place finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, so also fits the bill of a horse that has been competitive at the top level for 3-year-olds. Following Sea is the unknown factor in the race, having won his last two races by an average of six lengths and in powerful fashion, but he is racing in a stakes and running in a route race for the first time. Antigravity, Basso, and Pickin' Time round out the field, the latter the only stakes winner among the three as he captured the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes last November before three much poorer efforts.

Midnight Bourbon intrigues this handicapper in this year's Haskell Stakes. Midnight Bourbon got the jump on many a Kentucky Derby contender when winning the Lecomte Stakes in January following three months off, easily beating Mandaloun by a length. Following that, he finished third behind Mandaloun in the Risen Star Stakes then second behind Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby, a race in which Mandaloun checked in sixth. In the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Bourbon was bumped early and four wide on both turns but managed to rally from 12th to sixth at the end while his two foes each got much better trips. Returning two weeks later in the Preakness, which both the other two passed, Midnight Bourbon stalked the pacesetter in second before making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go before being run down by Rombauer.

Still, Midnight Bourbon was two lengths clear of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and much further ahead of the other seven horses. Considering his breeding, it is no surprise Midnight Bourbon fits at the top level and two of his half-brothers (same dam) have had tremendous success at Monmouth. One of those is Pirates Punch, who won both the Iselin Stakes and Salvator Mile Stakes last year. More importantly, the other is 2017 Haskell winner Girvin, who earned more than $1.6 million in his career. With consistent ™ Equibase® Speed Figures going back to the Lecomte of 99, 95, 96, 99 and 98, it is conceivable Midnight Bourbon could be that much more mature with two months off and can turn the tables on both Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun to win this year's Haskell Stakes.

Mandaloun really needs no talking up as his 4-1-1 record in seven career starts speaks for itself. Ignoring the Louisiana Derby where he finished sixth and considering he rebounded nicely for second in the Kentucky Derby following that race, Mandaloun has showed up every time he has run. Following the Derby, Mandaloun was very game in securing a neck victory last month in the local prep for the Haskell, the Pegasus Stakes, and certainly familiarity with the track has its benefits. Having earned a 110 ™ Figure in the Derby then following that up with a 109 figure in the Pegasus, Mandaloun should be expected to run another “A” race good enough to win in this race.

Hot Rod Charlie has a tremendous competitive spirit as evidenced by finishing no worse than third in all seven route races in his career, the last five of those graded stakes. After proving his runner-up effort at 94 to 1 odds in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall was no fluke when winning the Louisiana Derby two races later this past March, the colt was third in the Kentucky Derby (109 figure) before his runner up effort in the Belmont Stakes (108 figure) last month. The one knock Hot Rod Charlie may have, however, is he doesn't have any type of explosive kick. In the last quarter mile of his past six races, he has not really passed a horse. For example, in the Derby he was third for the last part of the race and in the Belmont he was second for the last quarter mile. Blinkers are removed for the Haskell which may help him find that added kick in the stretch when he sees his opponents better and certainly Hot Rod Charlie has earned his place among the top 3-year-olds of 2021 and might make his mark in this year's Haskell.

Honorable mention goes to Following Sea, who finished second in his debut in March before authoritatively winning his other two races. Earning a 110 figure competitive with the top contenders in this race while geared down to a five and three-quarter length win in April, in only the second start of his career, Following Sea won just as easily by 6 1/2 lengths last month with a 105 figure effort. Going from a sprint (6 1/2 furlongs) to a nine-furlong race is a tall order, but Following Sea is now in the hands of Todd Pletcher so there is no question he is ready for this test. As to pedigree, sire Runhappy's progeny have won 11 of 55 route races to date, though few have contested stakes. If not for the lack of experience in route races, Following Sea might have been my top choice to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Antigravity (97), Basso (82) and Pickin' Time (91).

Win Contenders:
Midnight Bourbon
Mandaloun
Hot Rod Charlie

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Sacco Believes Longshot Basso Will ‘Step Up’ In Haskell

Gregg Sacco knows exactly what he's up against in the $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes on July 17: Three, maybe four, of the top 3-year-olds in training, all of them sharp, while he sends out a horse that tired in the slop in an allowance optional claimer on June 26 in his first start of the year.

But the veteran trainer, whose family traces its roots to the earliest days of the modern Monmouth Park, isn't deterred and will take a big swing in the Grade 1 Haskell with Basso, who quite possibly will be the longest shot in the field.

In fact, Sacco seems genuinely enthused about the opportunity, especially since this will mark his first Haskell starter in a training career that began in 1989.

“We know he is going to have to step up,” said Sacco, whose father William was Monmouth Park's leading trainer in 1962. “We're anticipating he will in his second start as a 3-year-old. We're in our backyard. We're confident he will run a respectable race.

“We'll be walking out of our barn onto the track and we'll see what happens.”

A son of Cairo Prince, Basso has just one win from five career starts, four of them at Monmouth. He broke his maiden first asking by eight lengths last Aug. 23 but has yet to produce a signature moment.

That's something many of the other expected contenders for the Haskell have had already. Mandaloun was the Kentucky Derby runner-up; Midnight Bourbon was the Preakness Stakes runner-up and Hot Rod Charlie was the Belmont Stakes runner-up. Still on the fence about the Haskell is Preakness winner Rombauer.

“All of them popped up at some point to be where they are now,” said Sacco. “They can pop up any time as a 3-year-old. We're looking for a big improvement off his first race back. He was only 70 percent that day (when he finished sixth). We knew that going in.

“He made a bold move up to the lead at the quarter pole and he just got tired. It was nasty that day with the rain and the heat, he was in post nine, and we knew going in he was in desperate need of a race. So we're taking a shot. We'll see how it goes. But we feel he will run a respectable race.”

Owned by Michael Fazio and Monmouth Stud (which is Sacco), Basso's appearance in the starting gate will make up for some of the disappointment for both men from 2019, when Joevia was scratched the day of the Haskell due to a foot injury.

Sacco said Basso will work five-eighths of a mile either Saturday or Sunday at Monmouth Park, depending on the condition of the track following heavy rain Thursday.

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‘Matured’ Hot Rod Charlie Could Run Without Blinkers In Haskell

Third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes, Hot Rod Charlie has been confirmed for the G1 Haskell Invitational on July 17 after a six-furlong work in 1:11.60 this Friday, reports bloodhorse.com. The 3-year-old son of Oxbow will breeze at Santa Anita again on July 9, then fly east the following day.

Trainer Doug O'Neill was extremely pleased with the colt's penultimate breeze, for which jockey Flavien Prat was aboard. Hot Rod Charlie went without blinkers, as he has several times this year, and O'Neill is strongly considering removing the equipment for the Haskell.

“It's one of those deals where the blinkers helped him focus and become the racehorse he's become, but as he has matured, Flavien says he seems very happy without them,” O'Neill told bloodhorse.com. “We're hoping that obviously with some of these stretch duels that racing without them will tip us over onto the winning end of a stretch duel. We just wanted to try it in the mornings. So far, it's been a good experience. As it stands right now, more than likely 'Charlie' will run without blinkers in the Haskell.”

Work of the Day from @santaanitapark, Doug O'Neill's Hot Rod Charlie (Inside) and Foothill (Middle) and Leonard Powell's Gypsy Spirit (Outside) worked on July 2nd, 2021. @1stbet pic.twitter.com/ZUQXPwsioq

— XBTV (@WatchXBTV) July 2, 2021

The Haskell is a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic this fall at Del Mar. Other top 3-year-olds under consideration for the nine-furlong contest include Mandaloun and Rombauer.

Haskell Might Come ‘Too Soon’ For Medina Spirit, Baffert Says

Bob Baffert told the Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on July 17 might not be in play for his Kentucky Derby first-place finisher Medina Spirt. The embattled trainer had previously suggested the Haskell as the colt's likely first start since finishing third in the Preakness Stakes.

“It might get here too soon,” Baffert told DRF. “I freshened him a little bit, but he's training every day.”

The Haskell is a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic this fall at Del Mar.

Medina Spirit has only breezed once since the May 15 Preakness, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita in 37.60 seconds on June 14.

The Protonico colt's Derby win is in jeopardy due to a positive post-race test result for betamethasone, a therapeutic medication that is not allowed on race day. Baffert and his attorney have claimed the positive is a result of a topical cream used to treat a case of dermatitis on the colt's hindquarters. Though the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission has not yet held a hearing, required to disqualify Medina Spirit, but Baffert and his attorney have already filed suit against the commission asking a judge to grant further testing of the post-race samples.