hard not to love | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Never Be Enough Poised To Upset La Canada

Saturday's running of the Grade 3, $100,000 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita Park features a field of seven mares, most of which have made their mark in similar stakes recently. Leading the field in terms of career earnings is Hard Not to Love, who won the one-turn Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes 11 months ago and who has three runner-up finishes in graded stakes since, most recently in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes last fall. Fighting Mad is a two-time G1 winner, having captured the Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita last May, as well as the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes last August at Del Mar, both at the distance of the La Canada.

Proud Emma just won the identical G3 Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos last month, with Message finishing second and Miss Stormy D fourth. Never Be Enough is the new face in the older female dirt division, running on conventional dirt for the first time after eight races on turf or all-weather following coming to the U.S. from Great Britain. Sanenus rounds out the field and also appears to fit with these off a runner-up effort in the G3 Chilukki Stakes in November.

Although she has never run a race on a conventional dirt surface, I believe Never Be Enough can run well enough to post the upset in this year's La Canada Stakes. This hard knocking mare leads the field by far in races run in her career (29), having won seven and finishing second in five others, including a four for 10 record in 2020. Shipping from trainer Manuel Badilla's Golden Gate Fields base last fall, Never Be Enough (GB) won the Kathryn Crosby Stakes (111 Equibase Speed Figure) on the turf at Del Mar then two races later was closing strongly late and ended up second in the Robert J. Frankel Stakes, ending up beaten just three-quarters of a length at the end by Mucho Unusual (a grade 1 stakes winner). That 111 figure matches up perfectly with the 112 figures Fighting Mad earned winning the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and with the 112 figure Hard Not to Love earned when second in the Santa Maria Stakes. As such, if Never Be Enough can transfer her form to the main track, she has every right to run well enough to win this race

Fighting Mad hasn't been seen since finishing third as the prohibitive favorite in the Zenyatta Stakes last September, a disappointing effort which led to her skipping the Breeders' Cup Distaff and taking time off to prepare for her five year old campaign. Prior to that, Fighting Mad led from start to finish and dominated against short five and six horse fields in the Santa Maria Stakes (117 figure) and Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (112 figure). In the La Canada, I expect Fighting Mad to secure the lead at the start and try to control the pace to the finish, which is certainly possible. However, horses like Message, Sanenus and Miss Stormy D may also want the lead or to be very close to the front, which may see Fighting Mad run more like she did in the Zenyatta when passed late in the stretch.

Proud Emma just won the identical Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos with a 104 figure and three races before that won the Tranquility Lake Stakes with a 105 figure. In both races, Proud Emma closed from off the pace so in the La Canada she has a chance to save ground from the rail and close into the pacesetter in the stretch although she would need to improve to get to the 112 figure level it appears the winner of this race will need to earn to win.

Hard Not to Love is certainly a contender but I don't think she can win the La Canada. In three of her four races around two turns she managed second place, but all were in short fields of six or less. The best of those earned a 112 figure when second in the Santa Maria. However, Fighting Mad won that race after leading from the start and that's a more likely scenario in my opinion than Hard Not to Love turning the tables on her foe.

The rest of the La Canada Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Message (105), Miss Stormy D (111) and Sanenus (97).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Never Be Enough (GB)
Fighting Mad
Proud Emma

La Canada Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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Fighting Mad Will Try To Go All The Way In Contentious Edition Of La Cañada

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Harvest Moon Shines In ‘Win And You’re In’ Zenyatta Stakes

The lone 3-year-old in the field, trainer Simon Callaghan's Harvest Moon stalked heavily favored Fighting Mad early and took charge turning for home en route to a rousing three-quarter length score in Sunday's Grade 2, $200,000 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif. The Zenyatta is a pivotal steppingstone to the G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

With Bob Baffert-trained Fighting Mad, a recent gate to wire G1 winner going to the early lead as expected, Harvest Moon fell into a perfect stalking trip from her number three post in a field of four fillies and mares. Lapped just outside the favorite in the run up the backstretch, Harvest Moon glided alongside Fighting Mad mid-way around the far turn and held Hard Not to Love safe late for the win.

“We thought Fighting Mad would go to the lead and we wanted to keep pressure on her,” said jockey Flavien Prat, who has now guided Harvest Moon to four consecutive wins. “My filly had never been a mile and a sixteenth, but Fighting Mad was carrying 126 pounds. You never know with a 3-year-old against older, but we got eight pounds, so that was good. It turned out this was a good distance for my filly and she really ran well.”

A 1 1/4-length winner of the G3 Torrey Pines stakes versus sophomore fillies going one mile on Aug. 22 at Del Mar, Harvest Moon was the third betting choice at 7-2 and paid $9.80 and $5.60 (no show wagering).

“We have been really patient with her early on and that's a credit to Alice (Bamford, breeder and co-owner) and Michael Tabor (co-owner),” said Callaghan. It was said that this filly has a lot of talent and they were so patient throughout the whole process. She took her time to come to hand, but she's come a long way in a short period of time.

Harvest Moon was under consideration to run against 3-year-old fillies in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Preakness weekend at Pimlico, but Callaghan opted to keep the filly in Southern California.

“(Running in the Zenyatta) certainly looks like a good decision now. Myself and Alice, along with everyone else, chatted and we felt at this stage keeping her here, receiving weight from Fighting Mad, was the right thing.”

A 3-year-old bay filly by Uncle Mo, out of the Shamardal mare Qaraaba (winner of the G3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes for Callaghan and Harvest Moon's owners), Harvest Moon notched her second graded stakes win and her fourth overall win from five starts. With the winner's share of $120,000, Harvest Moon roughly doubled her earnings to $240,720.

“I'm absolutely thrilled today, completely over the moon for Harvest Moon!” said Bamford. “She's a homebred and she's just so deep in my heart and in my family's heart. It was so good to see her so well ridden today, showing off her beautiful stride … We lost her mother this year, Qaraaba, who (was) a stunning, stunning filly and each time I tell her, 'Harvest Moon, go and do it for your Mama.' And she has.”

The actual second choice in the race at 7-2, Hard Not to Love was a close third throughout and edged by the favorite late by three quarters of a length for second money while returning $5.60 to place with Mike Smith up.

Fractions on the race were 23.37, 46.51, 1:10.21 and 1:36.11.

Named for the legendary mare that remained unbeaten and became the only distaffer to ever beat the boys in the Breeders' Cup Classic by taking the 2009 running at Santa Anita, Zenyatta would then became Horse of the Year in 2010 for owners Jerry and Ann Moss and trainer John Shirreffs. The Zenyatta is a Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Race qualifier to the G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Nov. 7.

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Little Brown Jug Win Caps Off Crazy Good 10 Days for Anderson

The 3-year-old pacing gelding Captain Barbossa didn’t look that good on paper in Thursday’s Little Brown Jug, one of harness racing’s most prestigious races. He was 0 for 11 on the year and 3 for 25 lifetime and was facing some of the best horses in his division. Even co-owner David Anderson conceded that victory seemed unlikely.

But Captain Barbossa came through, finishing second in the first heat and then winning the final by 1 1/2 lengths. He may not have been the best horse in the race, but he had the hottest owner. Since the first day of the Keeneland September sale, Anderson, a self-described “little guy from Canada,” is on a run he never could have imagined.

“I’m in quarantine now and I’m ready to bust out and buy a lottery ticket,” he said from his home in Ontario. “That’s how lucky I feel right now.”

It started on the first day of the Keeneland sale when his Anderson Farms sold a Medaglia d’Oro filly out of Orchard Beach (Tapit) for $1.6 million to Shadwell. It was the most ever paid at auction for one of his horses. Six days later, a horse he bred, Gretzky the Great (Nyquist), won the GI Summer S. at Woodbine, which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Then came his win in the Jug.

The streak of good results continued Sunday when another horse Anderson bred, Hard Not to Love (Hard Spun), was a late-closing second in the GII Zenyatta S. at Santa Anita.

“I’ve been around this business long enough and having grown up in it, I know the highs are so high and the lows can be so low,” he said. “When you are fortunate enough to have a run like I had you just kind of sit back and enjoy it. You always know what is around the corner.”

While luck is often involved when someone goes on a tear like this, Anderson’s streak is the result of years of planning. He took over Anderson Farms when his father, Bob, died in 2010 and hit the reset button. He sold every mare he had but one and would also decide to cut back on the farm’s Standardbred operation.

His plan was to focus on quality. He now has 25 mares, which, he says, is a threefold increase from what he had just four years ago.

The first foal out of Orchard Beach was bought for $1.1 million by Coolmore and became a Group III winner in England, so Anderson had high expectations when the dam’s latest yearling entered the Keeneland ring.

“When you get it to that level at Keeneland, where you have the biggest owners in the world in on her, it becomes a question of who wants her most,” he said. “Did I think she was a $1-million filly? Absolutely. She’s the best filly I ever raised and certainly the most athletic. I was very proud and very humbled and thrilled that Shadwell got her.”

Anderson sold nine yearlings at Keeneland for a combined $2,433,000. The hope is that one or more will turn out to be as good as some of the stars produced by Anderson in recent years. Hard Not to Love is a Grade I winner who has earned over $530,000. Anderson also bred Wonder Gadot (Medaglia d’Oro), the 2018 Queen’s Plate S. winner whose earnings topped $1.5 million.

“I don’t think of myself as being a big breeder,” he said. “I have a small broodmare band and we’re kind of grassroots people. We do it old school. I have surrounded myself with the best people and we’ve been very, very lucky.”

Standardbreds were a major part of the Anderson operation under Bob Anderson. But his son decided to focus his attentions on breeding Thoroughbreds and got out of the Standardbred game. When the Thoroughbred operation got to be on solid footing, he ventured back into harness racing, starting at the 2017 sales.

“After building up our Thoroughbred broodmare band, I decided to dip my toe back in the water with the Standardbreds,” he said. “I had been down the breeding route. My business model is to breed and sell Thoroughbreds and buy and race Standardbreds. I love racing Standardbreds. I love the people. I am hoping I can continue to buy a couple every year and continue to get lucky.”

Anderson and partners paid $70,000 for Captain Barbossa at the 2018 Lexington Selected Yearling Sale. Up until the Jug, it looked like the best they could have hoped for from the son of Captaintreacherous was that he would continue to pick up checks. He had made most of the major 3-year-old pacing events, but couldn’t find the winner’s circle.

“This horse has been such a bad luck horse in terms of the draws,” Anderson said. “We were a victim of bad draws. Maybe he’s not the best horse out there but we always thought he was a good horse.”

To win the Jug a horse must qualify in a heat and then come back a few hours later to race in the finals. Captain Barbossa was sent off at 20-1 in his heat and managed to finish second. It was then that Anderson started to believe his horse had a serious chance of winning the final.

The Little Brown Jug is harness racing’s most unique race. It is held on a Thursday afternoon as part of the Delaware (Ohio) County Fair. It doesn’t have the biggest purse in the sport, but it is rich in tradition and, in non-COVID years, can attract crowds in the neighborhood of 50,000.

“There is so much history,” Anderson said. “It’s a race that every owner wants to win. That trophy is such a unique trophy. Everyone in racing knows what it is and what it represents.”

This time Captain Barbossa got the perfect trip, sitting third behind the two heat winners who battled through fast early fractions. Driven by Joe Bongiorno, the gelding passed the tired leaders, took over approaching the far turn and could not be caught.

“The Little Brown Jug. What can I say? It’s America’s race,” Anderson said. “To win that and be on that wall with so many other great champions, so many other great owners , trainers and drivers, it’s a real feather in my cap. I have a lot of people to be thankful for.”

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