Handicapping | Horse Racing Free Tips

Nate Newby: ‘A Better Day-To-Day Product’ Is Key To Santa Anita’s Success

Santa Anita's new general manager Nate Newby spoke to the Los Angeles Times this week about his vision for the Arcadia, Calif. track. The long-time racing executive has been with Santa Anita for approximately 20 years, and is committed to improving the Southern California racing product.

A regular at handicapping tournaments over the years, Newby plans to use the handle and field size statistics to measure success in this new role. The track's groundbreaking safety initiatives will continue to be a primary focus, as well.

“Southern California and Santa Anita have over the years been the gold standard of racing,” Newby told latimes.com. “We have the quality, we have the best horses in the world and that shows in the premier events — the Triple Crown races and Breeders' Cup. Putting on a better day-to-day product for our horse players is key. My top priorities, 1 and 1a, are continuing our safety initiatives, making sure we're safe for both horses and riders.”

Los Alamitos To Add $10,000 To Sunday Night Pick 6 Pools In January

The traditional nighttime $2 Los Alamitos Race Course Pick 6 has always been a great bet. The wager has seen a steady growth in popularity over the past four months at the Cypress, Calif., track. It will now also feature an exciting new promotion for horseplayers during the month of January after the track announced that it will add $10,000 of company money into its Pick 6 pool on Sunday nights whenever there is not a carryover going into that evening's program.

The first Sunday eligible for the Pick 6 promotion at Los Alamitos will be January 3, which is also the night of the Grade 1, $100,000 Charger Bar Handicap for Quarter Horse mares. A total of $10,000 will be added to the $2 Pick 6 at Los Alamitos on Sunday, January 3 if there is not a carryover already going into that evening's program. Los Alamitos Race Course will continue to offer the promotion every Sunday during the month of January.

As a traditional $2 Pick Six, the wager features a 70/30 percent split each night. That means there are no jackpot provisions, and that on a nightly basis whenever there are tickets that have correctly selected six out of six winners, those winning tickets each equally share 70 percent of the total pool.

“Los Alamitos has some of the best and most loyal fans in racing and we wanted to do something to thank them for their continued support of our nightly program,” said Orlando Gutierrez, the Los Alamitos director of marketing. “We wanted to build some added excitement for our horseplayers on nights when we already have some of our best stakes races of the week.”

In addition to the Charger Bar Handicap on January 3, the month of January will also feature the Barbra B Handicap on Sunday, January 10, and the trials to the Grade 1 Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship on Sunday, January 24.

“We've seen the new money wagered into the Pick 6 pools on carryover nights grow in recent months,” Gutierrez added. “For example, our November 15 program featured a Pick 6 carryover of $4,615. Horseplayers added $52,374 of new money into the pool. Similarly, on December 12 we had a carryover going in of $6,340 and the new money wagered into it that night was $50,643. With this Pick 6 promotion on Sundays in January, we are making sure that some type of money – either the existing carryover or the $10,000 promotional money – will be there for horseplayers to go after. It's going to be a lot of fun for horseplayers to go after and win.”

The recently concluded LA County Fair Meet at Los Alamitos Race Course also featured a traditional $2 Pick 6. On Friday, December 18, the program featured a multi-day carryover of $423,178 leading to $1.809,485 of new money. By the end of an exciting racing day, six tickets able to isolate the half-dozen winners in the sequence and each were rewarded with a Los Alamitos daytime record payoff of $228,816.40.

“We are looking forward to getting some feedback from our horseplayers on this promotion and hopefully we do it several times in January and we will see its popularity continue to grow nationally,” Gutierrez added.

Opening night of the nighttime 2020-21 Los Alamitos Quarter Horse and Thoroughbred meet is Saturday, December 26. The first night eligible for the $10,000 Pick 6 Promotion at Los Alamitos is Sunday, January 3, 2021. For more info, please contact larace@losalamitos.com. Follow us on Twitter or Instagram at @losalracing or visit us online at LosAlamitos.com.

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Meadowlands: Saturday Night Card Features 15 Races With Full 10-Horse Fields

After The Meadowlands takes a break for the holiday – there is no racing or simulcasting on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day – live action will return to The Big M with a bang this Saturday (Dec. 26) night with a gigantic 15-race program that will begin at the track's new early post time of 6 p.m.

Like a true holiday feast, the card comes with all the trimmings. All 15 races have full 10-horse fields and the track's betting menu offers all the goodies Big M players have grown accustomed to, with a 20-cent Pick-5 (race one), 20-cent Survivor Pick-7 (race three), 20-cent Pick-6 (race eight), 10-cent Pentafecta (race 15) and a pair of 50-cent Pick-4s (beginning in races six and 10). Both Pick-4s will have guaranteed pools of $50,000 and all the wagers offer a low 15 percent takeout.

The wagering on the card figures to be fast and furious since the last two Saturday programs were compromised: Two weeks ago by heavy fog – which left all of who watched a limited view of the first eight races – and last week by an electrical malfunction that caused the cancelation of the entire 13-race card.

“The Saturday card features 15 full 10-horse fields,” said Big M Chief Operating Officer and General Manager Jason Settlemoir. “Which will give horseplayers many chances for the big score. The one-mile oval makes it possible for all vertical and horizontal players to shoot for the moon.

“We think our product will do extraordinarily well this winter with our new 6 p.m. post time, which will be in effect through mid-March. We are hopeful that The Meadowlands with full fields and low takeout can cultivate even more horseplayers from around the world to wager on our signal.”

Not only will harness fans get to overindulge on the races from the mile oval, but Thoroughbred fans will get an excellent nosh as well, as the day after Christmas The Big M will offer simulcasting of the Opening Day card from Arcadia, Calif.'s Santa Anita Park. The 11-race program – which features five graded stakes events – has a post time of 2 p.m.

FREE PPs: For free past performances of Meadowlands races, courtesy of the United States Trotting Association and TrackMaster, go to playmeadowlands.com.

Races 10 through 13 – the entire Late 50-cent Pick-4 – will be available for Saturday's card.

TWEET THE TEAM: Stay in touch on Twitter with the Big M's Dave Brower (@eedoogie), Dave Little (@DaveLittleBigM), Ken Warkentin (@kenvoiceover), Shades Demsky (@shadesonracing) and Jessica Otten (@JessicaOtten1). Check in everyday for Meadowlands news and updates at those handles, as well as @TheMeadowlands and #playbigm.

CHECK OUT THE PICKS: For those who need to get a leg up on the action, go to playmeadowlands.com to see track oddsmaker and analyst Brower's selections and commentary. Click on the “handicapping” tab and go to “race reviews”.

Additionally, track announcer Warkentin's blog is available on the site and offers his picks and analysis.

On race nights, access picks and plays from the Big M TV team at #playbigm or at @TheMeadowlands.

CHECK OUT THE SHOW: Be sure to watch the live “Racing from The Meadowlands” pre-game show, which will now begin on race nights at 5:27 p.m.

On Saturday night, The Big M's “A” team of Brower and Little will talk about what's going on in harness racing and take a look at that evening's featured races from the Sam McKee Memorial Broadcast Set while Demsky will be the featured handicapper on the live presentation on the Television Games Network (tvg.com) all night long.

CAN'T MAKE IT TO THE TRACK? There are several options for those who would rather catch the action from The Big M at home.

Racing fans can watch all the races live on the Roberts Television Network (rtn.tv). In addition, they can watch and wager by going to the Television Games Network (tvg.com) or their favorite Advance-deposit Wagering site (ADW).

THE MEADOWLANDS SCHEDULE: There is no live racing on Christmas Day, Friday, Dec. 25.

There will be live racing Saturday, Dec. 26, with a post time of 6 p.m.

In addition, The Big M will be closed for simulcasting on both Dec. 24 and 25.

HOLIDAY AT FANDUEL: Football fans can get their fill at the FanDuel Sportsbook, located just inside the main entrance at The Meadowlands.

On Saturday (Dec. 26), there will be four college football games that handicappers can play, and, in addition, the National Football League will have three contests: At 1 p.m., Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9½) travel to Detroit to take on the Lions; Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals (-5½) host the San Francisco 49ers at 4:30 p.m. before the final game of the day kicks off at 8:15 p.m. when Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (-3) travel to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders.

This week for the Christmas holiday, there will be some changes to the schedule at the FanDuel Sports Book.

On Dec. 24, bets will be taken until 6 p.m. The book will be closed on Christmas Day, Dec. 25.

During a normal week, hours in the track's FanDuel Sports Book are from 10 a.m. – midnight Sunday through Friday and from 10 a.m. – 2 a.m. on Saturday.

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Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes

The holiday present the racing world opens on the day after Christmas is always a fantastic afternoon of racing on opening day of the winter-spring meeting at Santa Anita. The bright shiny bow on that present is, as usual, the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes.

Six horses are entered and each is special in his own right, with five of the sextet stakes winners. In terms of the level of stakes won by some of the entrants, we have to start with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan, who crossed the finish line first in the rescheduled G1 Arkansas Derby in May, only to be stripped of that victory thereafter for a medication violation. Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu three times previously, also saddles Thousand Words, winner of the 2019 G2 Los Alamitos Futurity as well as the Shared Belief Stakes this past summer.

Collusion Illusion won the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes in August so among the three graded stakes winners he is the only one with a win in a sprint like the Malibu. Then there's Nashville, undefeated in three starts including the Perryville Stakes last month in the sizzling time of 1:07.8. Independence Hall is no slouch, having won the G3 Nashua Stakes in November 2019 and back in form off a win last month following seven months off. Express Train has been first or second in all four of his races at a mile or less, and although this will be his first try in a graded stakes around one turn he can't be ruled out as a contender.

In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, consisting of three five furlongs workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.

Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run, and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off as well as coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career starting back in September of 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Michael McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at six and one-half furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for five furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.

Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.

As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track so could get a piece. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of six and one-half furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Nashville
Independence Hall

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Saturday, December 26 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $300,000

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