Tag: Handicapping

This Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes begins the three race series for sophomores at Gulfstream Park which continues with the Fountain of Youth Stakes and ends with the Florida Derby. With “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points on line, the Holy Bull is the starting off spot for many aspiring 3-year-olds hoping to prove themselves one of the 20 which can enter the starting gate in Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

In terms of horses with stakes credentials, 2020 Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes winner Sittin On Go deserves mentioning, but with ninth and sixth place finishes in two starts since the win there is certainly the question of whether he can return to top form.

Papetu and Awesome Gerry recently finished second and third, respectively, in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes over the track in a one-turn mile race and if they can improve and run as well in this two-turn race may have a strong say in the outcome.

Another Holy Bull entrant with stakes form is Tarantino. The colt is trying dirt for the first time after three tries on grass, one of them a runner-up effort in the Zuma Beach Stakes last October.

Then there's an impressive pair of maiden winners from the barn of Todd Pletcher in the form of Amount and Prime Factor. Both are stretching out to two-turns off debut wins by five and three-quarter lengths and eight and three-quarter lengths, respectively.

Greatest Honour also broke his maiden in his most recent start but he did so at the distance of the Holy Bull.

Jirafales and Willy Boi enter the Holy Bull off visually impressive wins in sprints and round out the field as they stretch out in distance for the first time.

Greatest Honour started his career sprinting and finished third in two races at seven furlongs, improving from a debut 84 Equibase Speed Figure to 89 in his second start. Stretched out to two turns (nine furlongs) for career start number three in November, Greatest Honour regressed slightly to an 85 figure but ran a much better race, battling head-and-head the entire length of the stretch before losing by a head at the wire. Shipping to Gulfstream in December, Greatest Honour improved markedly at the distance of the Holy Bull when maturely rallying from seventh of nine early to win by a length and one-half. In doing so he improved to a field high 104 figure.

This appears to make him the one to beat, because even if some of the other impressive recent winners improve, they will have to improve significantly more than Greatest Honour to beat this colt, even if he just repeats his last effort. As a son of Tapit, sire of many top 3-year-olds in recent years such as Enforceable, Hofburg and Tacitus, Greatest Honour should only get better over the course of his sophomore campaign and therefore appears to be the one to beat in this year's Holy Bull Stakes.

Sittin On Go won his debut last summer impressively by four lengths in a five furlong sprint, then won the Iroquois Stakes at one mile in only the second start of his career. The improvement from an 80 figure in his debut to 95 second out portended great things for this colt, but that did not pan out. After a ninth place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and sixth place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Sittin On Go was given some time off to mature. It appears that time off helped him as he's been in steady training at Gulfstream Park for over a month. Given that he ran so well fresh last year and that his first crop sire, Brody's Cause, has had decent success, I think Sittin On Go could run well in the Holy Bull Stakes by repeating his Iroquois Stakes effort and should be considered a contender.

Papetu was overlooked in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes four weeks ago when sent to post at odds of 20 to 1. Although no match for the winner, Papetu nevertheless finished well for second in the field of nine with an 87 figure he could improve upon in his second start following four months off, so he can be given a look at the outcome as well.

Prime Factor (89 figure winning last month) and Amount (84 figure winning last month) come from the top barn of Todd Pletcher, who according to a STATS Race Lens query wins at a hefty 33 percent rate with horses which are stretching out from a sprint to a route in their second career starts. Still, asking horse to both go from maiden ranks to graded stakes and at the same time from one turn to two turns can be a big lift and considering other horses in this race have experience in stakes and routes, I think they may fall short of being able to win.

Awesome Gerry finished third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, one and one-quarter lengths from Papetu. He's earned back-to-back 84 figures and is not on the same pattern for improvement to be competitive here as some of the others in my opinion. Tarantino has two wins and a nose defeat to his credit in three career starts. In the best of those three, Tarantino finished second, beaten a nose, in the Zuma Beach Stakes in October and earned an 81 figure. As a son of Pioneer of the Nile, Tarantino should run as well on dirt but even that effort if repeated appears to fall short of what it will take to win this race. Willy Boi won at first asking then beat a restricted allowance field earlier this month, earning an 85 figure in doing so. He appears to have the same double ask of running two-turns and trying stakes for the first time as many of the others. Jirafales won at first asking in November and earned a 71 figure in doing so. Even with logical improvement as a 3-year-old it appears he could be far short of being competitive against this field.

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Greatest Honour
Sittin on Go
Papetu

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, Jan. 30 – Post Time 4:50 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Greatest Honour Deserves Top Billing In Holy Bull appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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