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Pimlico: Friday’s Rainbow 6 Carryover Approaching $900,000

Unsolved during a special Memorial Day holiday program, when the total pool surpassed the $1 million mark, the 20-cent Rainbow 6 had its Maryland state record carryover jackpot approach $900,000 for the return of live racing Friday at historic Pimlico Race Course.

The Rainbow 6 pool is expected to top $1 million for the second straight racing day, building on a carryover of $895,264.82 from Monday's program. Friday's sequence begins with 2-year-old fillies on the dirt and features full fields in a pair of races scheduled for the grass.

Introduced in Maryland April 2, 2015 on opening day of Pimlico's spring meet, the Rainbow 6 had its previous state record carryover reach $345,898.33 spanning 31 racing programs before being solved by one lucky bettor for a life-changing $399,545.94 payout April 15, 2018 at Laurel Park. The winning ticket was purchased through Maine off-track betting.

The Rainbow 6 jackpot is paid out only when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 60 percent of that day's pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners while 40 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool.

Post time for the first of eight races Friday is 12:40 p.m. The Rainbow 6 begins in Race 3, a waiver maiden claimer for juvenile fillies sprinting five furlongs that attracted a field of seven including the Kevin Boniface-trained entry of homebreds Evangeline Allons and Sommer Velvet. Sommer Velvet is one of three horses not in for a tag, along with R. Larry Johnson-bred and owned Clouds of White and Magic in Me, both first-time starters for trainer Mike Trombetta.

Race 4 is a six-furlong starter allowance for 3-year-olds and up led by 7-5 program favorite To the Front, a six-figure earner that has finished in the top three in 14 of 19 career starts but is racing first time for trainer Derrick Goetz. Trainer Anthony Aguirre counters from outside Post 6 with Unequivocal, cutting back after running third by less than a length in a similar spot going 1 1/16 miles May 21 at Pimlico.

Nine horses 3 and up were entered in Race 5, an open, entry-level allowance carded at one mile on the grass. Dig Charlie Dig, trained and co-owned by Jamie Ness, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite from Post 1, looking to break a nine-race winless streak dating back to last fall. The 7-year-old gelding has earned nearly $250,000 in purses from 46 starts with five wins and 14 seconds, four of them coming during the recent drought. He has two seconds and two thirds from nine previous tries on turf. Uncle Andrew is unraced since rallying to be fourth in the 5 ½-furlong Punch Line for Virginia-breds last October at Laurel Park.

Marshall E. Dowell's Speightster Red, an $85,000 son of champion sprinter Speightstown, is favored to graduate in his fifth career start in Race 6, a six-furlong maiden claimer for horses 3, 4 and 5. Plissken drops in off a seventh in maiden special weight company April 9 at Laurel for trainer Brittany Russell. Dialing Dixie, a 3-year-old Maryland homebred son of Grade 1 winner Dialed In, is entered to make his debut from outside Post 6.

James Wolf's 4-year-old gelding Titan's Will seeks his fourth consecutive win for a fourth different trainer in Race 7, a 1 1/16-mile starter-optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up. Titan's Will began his streak March 21 with a 5 ¾-length triumph going one mile at Laurel, and was claimed away from Brittany Russell. He won April 25 for Andres Garibay Sr. and was claimed again, then scored in a similar spot May 9 for Anthony Farrior, both times at Pimlico. He will be racing first time for Derrick Goetz.

Among the competition are Glengar, coming back seven days off a front-running three-quarter-length triumph at Pimlico for trainer Joel Maldonado; Other Things Equal, beaten by Titan's Will in each of his last two starts; and Jamie Ness-trained entrymate Bellarmine Hall.

The Rainbow 6 wraps up in Race 8, a claiming event for maidens aged 3, 4 and 5 scheduled for 1 1/8 miles on the grass, which also serves as the opening leg of the weekly national Stronach 5 wager that continues with races from Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields.

Narrowly favored at 4-1 in the program is Marshall E. Dowell's Tipyourhattothat, a 3-year-old Congrats gelding that has run second three times in six previous starts but will be trying turf for the first time. Rip It LLC's eponymous 3-year-old Tapit colt, bred by Juddmonte Farms, also has six prior races having most recently finished second against older horses in a one-mile maiden claimer on the Pimlico turf May 13.

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Friday’s Stronach 5 An All-Turf Wager Across Four Tracks

It is all about the turf in Friday's Stronach 5, as the popular wager with an industry-low 12-percent takeout has all five races from Pimlico Race Course, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields scheduled on the turf.

Post time for the Stronach 5 is 4:15 ET, and will begin with Pimlico's eighth race, a 1 1/8-mile turf event for $25,000 maiden claimers.

The first leg of the sequence is a wide-open affair with a 4-1 morning-line favorite in Tipyourhattothat. A 3-year-old by Congrats, the Robert Bailes-trained gelding has three seconds and two fourths from six career starts and drops from a waiver maiden claimer. Pathway to Victory tries the turf for the first time for trainer Michael Trombetta after showing some speed on an off-track last time out. Michael Matz saddled Fog Bound, 10th in his debut April 21.

Gulfstream's sixth race, a five-furlong, $35,000 claiming turf event for fillies and mares, is next with a 7-5 favorite Missing Link, who goes out for his fourth consecutive victory at the distance and surface for trainer David Fawkes. If the race comes off the turf, the 7-5 choice is Royal Habibi, claimed last out from Saffie Joseph Jr. by Jorge Delgado, who is 30-percent off the claim.

The Stronach 5 heads west for legs three and four. Santa Anita's third race, a maiden special weight event for California bred or sired fillies and mares at a mile on the turf, drew a field of six and a 6-5 favorite in Sunshine Babe, coming off a second-place finish May 9 at the distance and surface. So Very Smart tries the turf for the first time in three starts after being claimed last out by Doug O'Neill, who is 20-percent off the claim.

Golden Gate's third race serves as the fourth leg of the Stronach 5. The mile event for $20,000 maiden claimers is wide-open with Drasario (5-2), Summer Fun (3-1), Balius ($-1) Pogo (7-2) and Wild Wager (5-1) all capable of winding up in the winner's circle.

The Stronach 5 concludes at Gulfstream with another five-furlong turf event for allowance optional claimers. The field of eight includes Halcyon Digest (5-2), steadied when finished third last time out, and Todaystheday (3-1), a winner last time out against similar.

Friday's races and sequence

Leg One – Pimlico Race 8: (11 entries – 1 1/8-mile turf) 4:15 ET, 1:15 PT
Leg Two – Gulfstream Race 6: (8 entries – 5 furlongs turf) 4:34 ET, 1:34 PT
Leg Three – Santa Anita Race 3: (6 entries – 1-mile turf) 5:09 ET, 2:09 PT
Leg Four – Golden Gate Race 3: (8 entries – 1-mile turf) 5:28 ET, 2:28 PT
Leg Five – Gulfstream Race 8: (7 entries – 5 furlongs turf): 5:36 ET, 2:36 PT

Fans can watch and wager on the action at 1/ST.COM/BET as well as stream all the action in English and Spanish at LaurelPark.com, SantaAnita.com, GulfstreamPark.com, and GoldenGateFields.com.

The Stronach 5 In the Money podcast, hosted by Jonathan Kinchen and Peter Thomas Fornatale, will be posted by 2 p.m. Thursday at InTheMoneyPodcast.com and will be available on iTunes and other major podcast distributors

The minimum wager on the multi-race, multi-track Stronach 5 is $1. If there are no tickets with five winners, the entire pool will be carried over to the next Friday.

If a change in racing surface is made after the wagering closes, each selection on any ticket will be considered a winning selection. If a betting interest is scratched, that selection will be substituted with the favorite in the win pool when wagering closes.

The Maryland Jockey Club serves as host of the Stronach 5.

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World Could Prove Tough To Catch In Belmont Stakes

Back in its traditional spot on the calendar five weeks after the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes doesn't have a Triple Crown on the line, or even the Derby winner trying to make amends for losing the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. What the Belmont does have is a field of eight including five horses which ran in the Derby and then expressly sat out the Preakness for this opportunity. Those five horses, with their Derby placings, are Hot Rod Charlie (third), Essential Quality (fourth), Known Agenda (ninth), Bourbonic (13th) and Rock Your World (17th). Preakness winner Rombauer tries to win the last two legs of the Triple Crown, while France Go de Ina attempts to improve off a seventh of 10 finish in that race. Overtook rounds out the field, having finished third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes over the track four weeks ago.

Analysis Part One – Main Contenders

The strategy for Rock Your World in the Derby was to go to the lead just as he had done one month earlier winning the Santa Anita Derby, earning a career best 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure figure in the process. That plan was laid to rest immediately when one of jockey Joel Rosario's feet came out of the irons, resulting in a shift in his weight and more importantly, the inability to get the colt to the front. From there both horse and jockey could do nothing but watch as his #1 weapon was neutralized. Shipping back to California for three strong workouts, the most recent a five furlong drill in :58.4 which was the best of 34 on the day, lightning is highly unlikely to strike twice. As such, Rock Your World should be able to control the pace from the start, possibly slowing the tempo down to below average, and go on for the win in the same manner as a number of winners of the Belmont in the last 20 years such as D' Tara, Justify and American Pharoah.

In spite of finishing fourth of 19 as the betting favorite in the Derby, Essential Quality continued a pattern of improvement started in his first start of the year as a three year old in February. The talented colt won the Southwest Stakes with a 105 figure before a career-best 109 ™ figure in the Blue Grass Stakes in April. In the Derby, Essential Quality made a rallying move while wide to go from seventh (five and one-half lengths back) to fourth (three-quarters of a length back) with a quarter mile to go but ran evenly thereafter. Although the 109 figure was the same, one thing Essential Quality has in his favor for the Belmont is his tactical speed because if he sits second in the early stages as he did in the Blue Grass, he may be able to pass Rock Your World in the final strides where he was unable to pass Medina Spirit in the Derby. The reason for this is his pedigree, as Essential Quality is the only son of Tapit in the field. Tapit produced the 2014 (Tonalist), 2016 (Creator) and 2017 (Tapwrit) winners of the Belmont. Tapit produces horses which can run 12 furlongs and more as evidenced by STATS Race Lens Query which reveals the sire has produced 13 different winners at distances from a mile and one-half to two miles over the last five years, accounting for 18 wins, with six of those coming at Belmont Park.

Known Agenda ran just a bit less poorly in the Derby as opposed to Rock Your World, checking in ninth after advancing from last of 19 in the early stages. That's insignificant as compared to his two races prior to that. He added blinkers for the first of the pair in February and won by 11 lengths with a 103 figure. Next he won the Florida Derby with a 112 figure and did so easily. Known Agenda is trained by Todd Pletcher, as is Bourbonic and Overtook. Pletcher has won this race with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013) and Tapwrit (2017). Considering his win in the Florida Derby earned a 112 figure, which is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, and considering North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides the colt for the fourth straight time, Known Agenda could bounce back to top form and post the mile upset to win.

Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders

As for Rombauer, although he has improved in each race as a 3-year-old, going from a 95 figure, to 100, to 103 in the Preakness, I have concerns about his ability to run a mile and one-half as well as his ability to stay close early. Historically, a few horses have come from far back which is the way Rombauer likes to run, but for the most part winners of the Belmont have either led from the start or been within two lengths for most of the race. Considering the likely early pace edge Rock Your World possesses, Rombauer could be relegated to a minor award.

Similarly, Hot Rod Charlie's third place effort in the Derby may give bettors incentive to bet him more heavily than is appropriate given his somewhat low probability to win in my opinion. Hot Rod Charlie earned a 97 figure when beaten a neck by Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January, before improving to 99 when winning the Louisiana Derby in April. In the Kentucky Derby, Hot Rod Charlie moved up quickly after a half-mile to get into third position then kept that same position the entire last six furlongs of the race. It is possible he could be sitting in second behind Rock Your World in the early portions of the Belmont instead of Essential Quality, but I see jockey Luis Saez on Essential Quality being more aggressive from his inside post and denying Hot Rod Charlie that opportunity, which means he would have to out finish Rock Your World who has run slowly on the lead from the start. Considering he couldn't pass Medina Spirit the entire length of the stretch in the Derby, I think that's a tall order.

Analysis Part Three – Non-Contenders:

There are few horses which don't seem to be at the same level as the rest, so it appears logical to eliminate those as win contenders. Bourbonic started 18th in the Derby and ended up 13th. Prior to that he earned a 100 figure winning the Wood Memorial at odds of 72 to 1, and prior to that had no stakes experience at all. As a matter of fact he broke his maiden in a maiden claiming race. He just doesn't seem good enough or fast enough to be competitive.

Similarly, Overtook finished second in the Withers Stakes in February off a maiden win with a 97 figure then took three months off and ran evenly from start to finish in the Peter Pan Stakes with a 99 figure. Overtook is one of three trained by Todd Pletcher, shares some ownership with Known Agenda and adds blinkers. He doesn't appear fast enough to take on likely early leader Rock Your World but then again stranger things have happened. Still, although a pace factor I don't see him being in the top three at the end.

France Go de Ina pressed the pace when third in the early stages of the Preakness then faded to seventh, earning a 78 figure. It would take an astronomical amount of improvement for him to be competitive here in my opinion.

Win Contenders:
Rock Your World
Essential Quality
Known Agenda

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 5 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.

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Maryland State Record Jackpot Carryover Builds To $747,098 For Saturday’s Card

A special Memorial Day weekend schedule of live racing continues Saturday with the Maryland state record jackpot carryover having grown to $747,098.73 in the 20-cent Rainbow 6 after going unsolved Friday at historic Pimlico Race Course.

No horses were live to take down the jackpot heading into Friday's ninth-race finale, won by My Man Pots N Pans ($9.60). A total of $119,522 was bet into the popular multi-race wager, which began with a carryover of $708,857.82 from the last live program May 23. Multiple tickets with all six winners each returned $2,493.96.

Post time for Saturday's nine-race program is 12:40 p.m. The Rainbow 6 begins in Race 4, a six-furlong claimer for 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, or 3-year-olds. The feature comes in Race 8, a 1 1/16-mile allowance for Maryland-bred/sired 3-year-olds and up, where Artistic Reason – a half-brother to 2020 Runhappy Barbara Fritchie (G3) winner Majestic Reason – is set to make his 4-year-old debut off more than a nine-month layoff. Among the competition are four six-figure earners with a combined 69 starts as well as last-out stakes-placed Doubleoseven.

Saturday's card also includes a maiden special weight in Race 3 for fillies and mares age 3, 4 or 5 sprinting five furlongs on the turf. The narrow 4-1 program favorite is R. Larry Johnson's In Vain, a 3-year-old Maryland homebred daughter of Congrats that has ran third in three consecutive races over the winter at Gulfstream Park but is unraced since March 21.

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 Friday began with a carryover of $115,038.40 from May 23 and saw another $759,025 wagered. Tickets with all five winners were each worth $3,849.25.

There will also be a carryover of $9,245.87 in the $1 Super Hi-5 for Saturday's opener.

Following Saturday, Pimlico will host live race cards Sunday, May 30 and a special Memorial Day holiday program Monday, May 31.

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