Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Best Riders By ROI

The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. The rider colony has been dominated by Joao Moreira and Zac Purton as they have shared the last eight titles but the more familiar you are with the other riders, the better you will be. The racing is extremely competitive and the riders are under extreme scrutiny from the racing officials. At the end of each racing day, they issue warnings, reprimands and suspensions when the rules are not being followed. As a bettor, rest assured you are getting a fair shake.

The leading riders win the most races but they also receive the most backing. Blindly betting them rarely works out over time. In Hong Kong, there are just over 20 riders that have licenses to ride. Because the average field size is over 12, many of them are kept busy but don't always get quality mounts. Thus, many have very low win percentages. Still, when they win, they can pay well.

The following are the leading jockeys from the 2020-2021 season based on wins:

Jockey Wins Rides Money Earned
Joao Moreira 157 742 $1,212.90
Zac Purton 125 713 $1,180.20
Karis Teetan 79 741 $1,182.80
Vincent Ho 61 614 $910.50
Jerry Chau 58 481 $1,044.80
Alexis Badel 58 622 $943.40
Derek Leung 39 609 $1,146.30
Matthew Poon 37 537 $965.30
Matthew Chadwick 31 458 $670.90
Antoine Hamelin 27 538 $690.40
Chad Schofield 26 390 $463.90
Blake Shinn 24 374 $784.30
Vagner Borges 22 435 $1,006.00

 

Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading jockeys from the 2020-2021 season based on a ROI per $2 win bet:

Jockey Wins Rides Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Vagner Borges 22 435 $1,006.00 $870.00 $2.31
Jerry Chau 58 481 $1,044.80 $962.00 $2.17
Blake Shinn 24 374 $784.30 $748.00 $2.10
Derek Leung 39 609 $1,146.30 $1,218.00 $1.88
Matthew Poon 37 537 $965.30 $1,074.00 $1.80
Zac Purton 125 713 $1,180.20 $1,426.00 $1.66
Joao Moreira 157 742 $1,212,90 $1,484.00 $1.63
Karis Teetan 79 741 $1,182.80 $1,482.00 $1.60
Alexis Badel 58 622 $943.40 $1,244.00 $1.52
Vincent Ho 61 614 $910.50 $1,228.00 $1.48
Matthew Chadwick 31 458 $670.90 $916.00 $1.46
Antoine Hamelin 27 538 $690.40 $1,076.00 $1.28
Chad Schofield 26 390 $463.90 $780.00 $1.19

 

Some words of caution:

Vagner Borges benefitted from wins that paid $359.30 (race 563) and $117.50 (race 40).

Blake Shinn benefitted from a win that paid $151.90 (race 349).

Derek Leung benefited from wins that paid $138.20 (race 247) and $121.60 (race 257).

Jerry Chau continues to thrive with his five-pound apprentice allowance and his results are the most predictable.

As far as pari-mutuel payoffs, there is little statistical difference between Zac Purton (ROI = $1.66), Joao Moreira (ROI = $1.63) and Karis Teetan (ROI = $1.60).

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Kenny Mollicone Named Kentucky Downs’ King Of The Turf

Kenny Mollicone, a 47-year-old real-estate developer from Somerset, Mass., is the 2021 National Turf Handicapping Champion, having won the six-day online Kentucky Downs Turf Handicapping Challenge at the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs.

Mollicone finished with an aggregate total of $5,783.90 Sunday after playing in all three of the individual two-day, live-money competitions. That gave him a comfortable $1,163.90 advantage over runner-up Christy Moore, who finished on top in the second contest.

As the King of the Turf, Mollicone earned $20,000 in prize money and the BetMakers King of the Turf Trophy. He earned a seat and prize pack to the 2022 National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) in Las Vegas in late January by virtue of his second place in the second contest.

If Mollicone was a horse, his race-chart trouble line would read “left at the gate, rallied, won under wraps.”

Mollicone tapped out in the first two-day contest staged Sept. 5-6, finishing with a $0 score as Gary Gristick won the competition with a $2,500 bankroll. Undeterred, he finished second at $3,778.40 behind Moore's winning bankroll of $4,620 in the second tournament Sept. 8-9 and seventh with $2,005.50 Saturday and Sunday in the final leg won by Ed Deicke at $7,392. Contest players were required to bet a minimum amount of money on a minimum of five races each day.

“I was going to bet Kentucky Downs anyway,” Mollicone said by phone Monday. “To be honest, I really didn't concentrate on the tournament. I usually bet $200, $300, $500 a race. I liked a horse or two, so I screwed around and the horses didn't win, so I was done (with the first tournament). Some people do so much a race and manage their money. Me, I'm just like if I take a shot and win, great; if not, hey, I'll do the next tournament. Kind of like that's what happened.

“Like, I did OK for the tournaments, but I did great betting on my own…. I entered the contest figuring if I like a horse, I'll take a shot. If he does well and I win, I got money and I keep playing. If not, then I just keep betting on my regular account.”

Mollicone says he played some horses whose double-digit odds seemed too high, but he couldn't generally remember their names. One name he clearly recalls, however, is Arklow, who got bottled up in traffic in midstretch before getting through late and coming up a neck shy of Imperador in Saturday's $1 million, Grade 2 Calumet Farm Turf Cup.

“He got blocked, should have won the race for fun,” he said. “He wins that race, I probably win that tournament. I had big doubles going in to him and big doubles going out with him. That's what kind of killed me. Then (Sunday), I just did what I had to do. I didn't like anything on the card.”

He said he calculated that he had enough bankroll to win the overall title and quit playing after Sunday's seventh race — his handicapping there proving correct.

Mollicone is a fan of the competition's format.

“It kept it interesting,” he said. “I knew I didn't do well on the first one, but I kind of liked a couple of horses in the second one; it kept me involved. I thought it was great, the way they set up it and the way they did the overall so you're going to play all three. Whoever came up with it, I think it's a great idea. It keeps you wanting to do it.

“A couple of guys who beat me (in the third leg), they didn't do the other tournaments and they didn't get the $20,000. Shame on them. You're going to bet Kentucky Downs anyway. It's great racing. You've got great horses. I think the more the people find out about it, especially with the bonus at the end, you're going to find more people playing next year. Guys are going to kick themselves in the butt for not playing the whole thing.”

Mollicone calls his late father, Bob, the best handicapper he's ever known. He says the first thing he learned how to read was the Daily Racing Form and went Suffolk Downs and the off-track betting at Rhode Island casinos with his dad, the two also traveling around the country to play contests.

“I love betting turf races,” he said. “It's a more exciting race, a more true race. And I just love the set up (at Kentucky Downs). They're going uphill, downhill. I just love it. You look forward to it. I've always done well at Kentucky Downs. You get horses who pay $25, $30 that you think should pay $8 or $10. Great racing and great value.”

Tournament Director Brian Skirka called the 2021 Kentucky Downs King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge “a massive success.”

“We had over 400 combined entries over the three contests and awarded over $171,000 in prizes,” he said. “I'd like to thank all the players who participated and Kentucky Downs for putting on six days of world-class turf racing. In just two years, these Kentucky Downs contests have proven themselves to be some of the most-challenging and most-lucrative in the country. I look forward to working with the Kentucky Downs team to grow them even more in the future.”

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Kentucky Downs Reports Record Wagering Of Over $74 Million, Up 24 Percent Over 2020 Meet

Led by a record-smashing $20,849,967 wagered on Saturday's showcase program, the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs completed North America's most lucrative six-date run with betting totaling $74,088,532.

The previous records were the $17,437,731 on the corresponding Saturday as part of the $59,828,441 total bet last year. That's an increase of 24 percent.

“Once again, the two groups that make horse racing possible — horse owners and horseplayers — responded enthusiastically to our meet and racing product,” said Ron Winchell, Kentucky Downs' co-owner and co-managing partner. “We are grateful for everyone's participation and pleased that Kentucky Downs is a much-anticipated and embraced spot on the racing calendar.”

Reflecting a 37 percent increase over last year's record, purses paid out to horse owners totaled $15,974,800, not counting the $1,000 going to horses who finished sixth through last in every non-stakes race. That actually is about $700,000 more than was originally offered in the condition book, the increase coming from splitting some maiden races and running two divisions of the TVG Stakes that both maintained the $400,000 purse.

Of the total purses, $5,870,340 came from the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund (KTDF) supplements for horses born in the state and sired by Kentucky stallions. However, the base purses for which horses compete regardless of birthplace have risen to where Kentucky Downs' stakes still are hard to top outside the Breeders' Cup.

By way of example, the Argentine-bred Imperador captured the $1 million Calumet Turf Cup, for which the base purse was $550,000 and the Irish-bred The Lir Jet took the $600,000, Grade 2 Franklin-Simpson, with a $300,000 base purse. In addition, German-bred Dalika finished second in the Grade 3 Calumet Bourbon Ladies Turf, the Chilean-bred Lagertha came in third in the Grade 3 Calumet Bourbon Ladies Turf and British-bred La Lune was second in her U.S. debut in Sunday's Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon.

“Kentucky-bred horses remain the benchmark and the generous KTDF program shows that it literally pays to be a Kentucky-bred,” said Ted Nicholson, Kentucky Downs' Vice President for Racing. “That said, our goal is to serve as a mini all-turf Breeders' Cup and to stamp ourselves as truly an international launching pad to the Breeders' Cup World Championships. We took a big step in that direction this year.”

Horse owners flocked to Franklin to watch their horses run and to be part of Kentucky Downs' unique atmosphere. This year the track added the air-conditioned VIP Chalet.

“This is our first time here,” said horse owner Dr. Joel Politi. “It's very different than going to any other racetrack. I've been to racetracks in Europe a bunch. I wouldn't say it's a European feel exactly, but it does have a sense of that. You can actually see the races better live than I thought you'd be able to. It's just a small-track atmosphere that's obviously very boutique-y and something very charming.”

Nelson's Green Brier Tennessee Whiskey was among the many new sponsors at the meet.

“We're really excited to be a part of the meet, specifically the Music City with Nelson's Green Brier,” said Brian Peters, state manager for Nelson's Green Brier Tennessee Whiskey. “This is our first year with this type of activation. It's really unique for our company, in fact. We're really excited about the developing partnership. Everything has been absolutely fantastic. It's been a perfect day at the races. It's been a perfect day as far as the weather is concerned, a lot of friendly people. We're excited to continue the partnership going forward.”

Except for some rain on opening day, the meet enjoyed spectacular weather. That included Saturday, when NBC was on hand for the first time to televise live the two Breeders' Cup Challenge Series stakes, with Imperador earning a fees-paid spot in the $4 million Breeders' Cup Longines Turf (G1) and Gear Jockey the same in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1).

“Anyone who saw the packed hotels and restaurants in and around Franklin know that Kentucky Downs is an economic engine for the region,” said Marc Falcone, co-owner and co-managing partner with Winchell. “This is fueled by the success of our historical horse racing operation at The Mint Gaming Hall. The Kentucky legislators and leadership in both the state House and Senate are among the meet's unsung heroes who back in February protected this innovative parimutuel technology. It's truly a win-win-win for those communities, the state's agribusiness and tourism and the horsemen. A significant portion of the money earned by horse owners this past week will go right into buying horses at Keeneland's yearling sale. That helps everyone.”

The most significant renovation to the turf course — with the heavily-traveled five-eighths of a mile around the far turn dug up and replaced with uniform material and smoothed out before being replaced with sod — was well-received. So was the new system of temporary rails, where a rail into and around the far turn and into the stretch was taken down after the second and fourth days of racing to allow for a fresh expanse of turf.

“I thought taking the rail down three times was the best thing I've ever seen,” said trainer Rusty Arnold, whose three wins including the FanDuel Turf Sprint with Gear Jockey, owned by Calumet Farm's Brad Kelley, a Bowling Green native who grew up in Franklin and who previously owned Kentucky Downs. “That two days on a fresh track every time was great. The crowds were good. The atmosphere was good. It was good racing, had the strongest jock colony in the country. Horses came from everywhere. It was just a great week.

“We got a guitar (signed by Reba McEntire as the trophy for the Turf Sprint) for Mr. Kelley. I've got two bottles of whiskey I like. Everything was good the whole time. It was great. A lot of new ideas. A lot of fun down here. Their new chalet is fabulous.”

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Joel Rosario clinched his first Kentucky Downs riding title on the second day of the meet, when he won five races for the second straight day. He went on to win seven more, including four on the final card to extend his track record total to 17. The previous record was the 12 won by Rafael Bejarano in 2004, matched by Florent Geroux in 2015 and 2016 and by Rosario on the fourth day of the meet.

Rosario rode 53 horses for a 32 percent strike rate. His mounts earned just shy of $3 million, at $2,952,097. Tyler Gaffalione, the 2020 meet leader, finished second with eight wins.

Rosario's big meet reflected agent Ron Anderson's decision to ride at Kentucky Downs instead of the final two days of the Saratoga meet.

“Ron is the one who is making the decision for everything, so thanks to him for all we've done,” Rosario said. “We really had a fantastic meet. I'm very blessed. Thanks to all the people who have supported us, the trainers, owners and everybody involved. We're really very excited for the meet. This was the first time we stayed here for the whole meet. We really had a lot of chances with horses, and been lucky and winning.”

Rosario went 0 for 19 at Kentucky Downs, including 0 for 14 in 2019, until last year, when he went 3 for 14.

“It's beautiful here,” he said. “I like it how it is, like a country fair.”

Brendan Walsh pulled into a tie with Mike Maker and Steve Asmussen for leading trainer with his final starter as Family Way gave Walsh his fourth win of the meet in the $500,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon. Walsh won three races Saturday — including the Grade 2 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Franklin-Simpson to pull into the hunt.

“I didn't even know, so that's nice,” Walsh said. “I think that's the first time I've won any trainer's title. I love this place. The last few years have been very good to me. We always look forward to it. It's something different, and it's just growing. I was trying to tell somebody the other day, you come here seven, eight years ago and there was like two trailers here. That's not that long ago. It's developed so much.

“People you talk to, they love to come here. Big fields, the betting handle is unbelievable here. You have to have the right horse. It's great. It's something different. I think that's what makes its uniqueness. And if the horse handles it, they'll be very well-rewarded.”

Maker, the track's all-time win leader, earned a piece of his record sixth training title. He also had 10 seconds and 10 thirds while his horses ran out $1,065,892 to lead the money standings.

Asmussen earned a share of his first Kentucky Downs training title. His four wins included Snapper Sinclair taking a division of the $400,000 TVG Stakes for his record third stakes victory at the track.

Godolphin finished with four victories for its first Kentucky Downs' owner crown, including winning the $1 million WinStar Mint Million with Pixelate and the $500,000 Exacta Systems Dueling Grounds Oaks with Adventuring.

“It's a great atmosphere down here,” said Jimmy Bell, president and racing manager of Godolphin's North America operation. “Everybody really enjoys making the trip down here. This could be 'horses for courses' a little bit. Everybody comes in with great expectations but not all find the going to their liking. But it makes it interesting for racing: the undulations, the turns, the rising ground coming down the stretch.

“We've had four fantastic wins here from all different kinds of ways.”

Wagering at Kentucky Downs' 2021 meet

Day Date (races) handle

Sunday Sept. 5 (11) $10,762,322
Monday Sept. 6 (11) $10,186,247
Wednesday Sept. 8 (10) $7,965,161
Thursday Sept. 9 (11) $10,425,558
Saturday Sept.11 (11) $20,849,967
Sunday Sept.12 (11) $13,899,277

Wagering at Kentucky Downs 2020 meet

Monday Sept. 7 (10) $7,877,475
Wednesday Sept. 9 (10) $7,090,577
Thursday Sept. 10 (10) $8,983,982
Saturday Sept. 12 (11) $17,437,773
Tuesday Sept. 15 (11) $8,950,973
Wednesday Sept. 16 (10) $9,487,705

Total betting on Kentucky Downs' live racing since 2011

Year (dates) all-sources total
2021 (6) $74,088,532
2020 (6) $59,828,444
2019 (5) $41,239,699
2018 (5) $36,421,721
2017 (5) $30,246,888
2016 (5) $22,540,764
2015 (5) $16,887,134
2014 (5) $15,880,755
2013 (5) $12,814,891
2012 (5) $7,570,731
2011 (4) $3,596,3540)

Evolution of purses at Kentucky Downs since advent of Historical Horse Racing
Note: 2011 is the last year that purses weren't enhanced by HHR

Total purses since 2011

Year (days) total purses races avg per race

2021 (6) $15,974,800 63 $253,568
2020 (6) $11,668,473 62 $188,201
2019 (5) $11,520,380 50 $230,407
2018 (5) $10,273,630 50 $205,472
2017 (5) $8,625,396 50 $172,508
2016 (5) $7,923,476 50 $158,470
2015 (5) $6,609,355 48 $137,694
2014 (5) $4,875,772 50 $97,515
2013 (5) $4,150,687 50 $83,013
2012 (5) $2,086,650 43 $48,526
2011 (4) $769,810 30 $25,660

Average number of starters per race since 2011
2021: 10.24
2020: 9.98
2019: 11.26
2018: 11.04
2017: 10.44
2016: 10.96
2015: 10.60
2014: 10.20
2013: 9.90
2012: 9.57
2011: 8.76

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Longshot Look Presented By Kentucky Downs: A Closing Day Buzzer Beater

It's closing day of the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs, and the Paulick Report is ahead of it with another Longshot Look video segment.

Bloodstock editor Joe Nevills steps in with an attempt to end the season on a high note, singling out a price play with his reasoning for what makes the horse worth a look when they might go overlooked.

Nevills turns his attention to Race 4 on Sunday's card, a seven-furlong allowance for fillies over Kentucky Downs' unique turf course. His pick showed some real flashes of turf ability in her most recent start, and she has the class to build upon it in her toughest test to date.

Kentucky Downs' 2021 meet takes place Sept. 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, and 12. First post each day is at 12:20 p.m. Central.

Watch today's Longshot Look presented by Kentucky Downs below:

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