Keeping Track Of Tapeta Trends At Gulfstream Park

The introduction of racing on Tapeta has presented bettors with new handicapping challenges and, hopefully, an all-weather path to betting riches at Gulfstream Park.

With four racing days in the books since races have been run over the Tapeta surface, it will come as a surprise to no one that horses with experience on turf and with turf pedigrees have been dominant in the vast majority of the 18 races conducted on the new all-weather track that was constructed on the former outer turf course.

How-the-race-was-won stats may be more relevant to handicappers, considering that there has been only one front-running winner thus far. Eleven winners rallied from mid-pack or farther back to win, while six horses prevailed after pressing or stalking the pace.

Amador Sanchez-trained Wow Tapit, who set the pace on his way to capturing a 5 ½-furlong maiden claiming race on Day 1, is also one of only two horses that won on Tapeta with no previous experience on turf (not counting first-time starter Cosmo Paul, who won Sunday's Race 3). Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained Strategy Queen graduated a few races later Thursday in a maiden special weight race on Tapeta after running twice on dirt. With a Tapeta-winning sister and a sire who was a multiple winner on all-weather, the daughter of Fed Biz's pedigree suggested that she would relish the going. Strategy Queen is one of four Tapeta winners that had raced on dirt in their previous starts.

Perhaps the most eye-opening development of the Tapeta Era thus far? The first 17 winners on Tapeta were saddled by 17 different trainers before Mark Casse doubled up in Sunday's last race with All Quality, who was racing on an all-weather track for the first time since winning her debut on Woodbine's all-weather track in 2019.

Ron Spatz saddled a veteran turf allowance runner Light Fury for an impressive mile-and-70-yard starter allowance score with his only Tapeta starter thus far.

“It reminds me of the old Calder. You run the same kind of normal fractions down the backside. The further you go, you lose a second. That's the way Calder always was,” Spatz said. “As long as they come back fine, that's great with me.”

Jockeys have done a pretty good job of spreading the wealth on Tapeta as well. Samy Camacho and Edwin Gonzalez lead all jockeys with three wins each. Jesus Rios and Miguel Vasquez each have two wins.

“It's not the same, but Tapeta is a lot like turf. I like the track. You don't have to be on the lead on this track. You can wait for the stretch,” said Camacho, who hadn't ridden in a race on Tapeta during his career prior to Thursday. “I think Gulfstream made a good change to have turf, Tapeta and dirt.”

The temptation to arbitrarily throw out the favorite may be eased somewhat by the fact that 11 favorites have visited the winner's circle after victories on Tapeta for a 60-percent strike rate.

Thursday's Rainbow 6 Jackpot Pool Guaranteed at $450,000

The 20-cent Rainbow 6 jackpot pool will be guaranteed at $450,000 Thursday at Gulfstream Park, where the popular multi-race wager went unsolved Sunday for the 14th racing day since a Sept. 10 mandatory payout produced multiple payoffs of $313,299.84

The Rainbow 6 jackpot is paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70 percent of that day's pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool.

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Economic Indicators: Rescheduled 2020 Kentucky Derby Skews September Numbers

Equibase, North American racing's official database, released Tuesday its September 2021 statistics for the industry's economic indicators, including field size, wagering, and other data, along with year-to-date and 2019 and 2020 numbers. The database distributes 2020 and 2021 numbers and includes 2019's data for comparisons to pre-COVID-19 pandemic numbers.

Since the September of 2020 data includes that year's re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, it is no surprise that total wagering in September of 2021 is down significantly, by 12.32 percent. When compared with the year-to-date numbers, however, total wagering shows a positive trend: an increase of 13.80 percent.

Interestingly, the average wagering per race day category does show declines from the first nine months of 2020 compared to the first nine months of 2021, down over 10 percent. This is likely due to the fact that horse racing was one of the only viable sports on which wagering dollars could be spent during 2020, whereas most regular sporting events, and thus wagering on them, resumed during 2021.

When compared to the 2019 year-to-date figures, total wagering in 2021 is up 10.52 percent, a positive trend from pre-pandemic numbers. Race days and the number of races have continued to decrease, while field size is nearly steady at a decline of just 1.63 percent.

September 2021 vs. September 2020
Indicator September 2021 September 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $911,921,042 $1,040,000,472 -12.32%
U.S. Purses $129,274,281 $110,307,205 +17.19%
U.S. Race Days 421 365 +15.34%
U.S. Races 3,365 3,101 +8.51%
U.S. Starts 24,107 24,447 -1.39%
Average Field Size 7.16 7.88 -9.13%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,166,083 $2,849,316 -23.98%
Average Purses Per Race Day $307,065 $302,212 +1.61%

3rd QTR 2021 vs. 3rd QTR 2020
Indicator 3rd QTR 2021 3rd QTR 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $3,220,215,555 $3,292,016,515 -2.18%
U.S. Purses $365,390,507 $305,067,601 +19.77%
U.S. Race Days 1,321 1,208 +9.35%
U.S. Races 10,436 9,989 +4.47%
U.S. Starts 73,324 76,402 -4.03%
Average Field Size 7.03 7.65 -8.14%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,437,710 $2,725,179 -10.55%
Average Purses Per Race Day $276,601 $252,539 +9.53%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $9,498,141,414 $8,346,543,422 +13.80%
U.S. Purses $880,542,199 $629,236,249 +39.94%
U.S. Race Days 3,202 2,509 +27.62%
U.S. Races 26,228 20,895 +25.52%
U.S. Starts 190,627 164,476 +15.90%
Average Field Size 7.27 7.87 -7.67%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,966,315 $3,326,641 -10.83%
Average Purses Per Race Day $274,998 $250,792 +9.65%

2019 Comparisons:

September 2021 vs. September 2019
Indicator September 2021 September 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $911,921,042 $801,998,134 +13.71%
U.S. Purses $129,274,281 $118,229,293 +9.34%
U.S. Race Days 421 412 +2.18%
U.S. Races 3,365 3,329 +1.08%
U.S. Starts 24,107 25,231 -4.45%
Average Field Size 7.16 7.58 -5.48%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,166,083 $1,946,597 +11.28%
Average Purses Per Race Day $307,065 $286,964 +7.00%

3rd QTR 2021 vs. 3rd QTR 2019
Indicator 3rd QTR 2021 3rd QTR 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $3,220,215,555 $2,921,407,748 +10.23%
U.S. Purses $365,390,507 $349,864,886 +4.44%
U.S. Race Days 1,321 1,411 -6.38%
U.S. Races 10,436 11,097 -5.96%
U.S. Starts 73,324 80,738 -9.18%
Average Field Size 7.03 7.28 -3.43%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,437,710 $2,070,452 +17.74%
Average Purses Per Race Day $276,601 $247,955 +11.55%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $9,498,141,414 $8,594,182,019 +10.52%
U.S. Purses $880,542,199 $893,867,018 -1.49%
U.S. Race Days 3,202 3,515 -8.90%
U.S. Races 26,228 28,554 -8.15%
U.S. Starts 190,627 210,977 -9.65%
Average Field Size 7.27 7.39 -1.63%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,966,315 $2,445,002 +21.32%
Average Purses Per Race Day $274,998 $254,301 +8.14%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Mandatory Payout Of Derby City 6 On Tap For Sunday

A lucrative total Derby City 6 pool could await bettors Sunday for closing day of Churchill Downs' 12-day September Meet. There's a $67,967 jackpot carryover on Saturday (Races 6-11). The pool will be rewarding Sunday if there's not a single winning ticket Saturday.

The Derby City 6 jackpot pool only is paid if there is a single winning ticket. When multiple tickets contain six winners 90 percent of that day's pool is paid out and 10 percent is added to the jackpot carryover.

Because Sunday is closing day, there will be a mandatory Derby City 6 payout with all monies distributed to ticket holders with the most winners in the six-race series. Sunday's Derby City 6, which only costs 20 cents per combination, is scheduled to cover Races 6-11 starting at approximately 3:18 p.m. (all times Eastern).

Takeout on the Derby City 6 is just 15 percent, which is one of the lowest multi-race wager takeout rates in American racing.

Fans can wager on the Derby City 6 on track at Churchill Downs; www.TwinSpires.com, the track's official online wagering platform; other online wagering outlets; and select satellite betting centers throughout North America.

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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Can Lead All The Way In Santa Anita Sprint Championship

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of six, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed.

  • Leading the field is C Z Rocket, who has earned nearly $1.5 million while winning 11 of 28 races in his career, including the 2020 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes.
  • Flagstaff was beaten a head in last year's edition of the race and has done little wrong in his last four races, winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes in May and most recently finishing third and a head behind runner-up C Z Rocket in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes.
  • The third place finisher last year was Collusion Illusion, who had won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes one month earlier. After taking eight months off following a third place finish last December in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, Collusion Illusion most recently finished seventh while trying turf for the first time in the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap and could improve back on the surface where he has won five of eight races in his career.
  • Vertical Threat has won four of five dirt sprints in his career, three of those stakes including the Steel Valley Sprint last November and most recently the Russel Road Stakes.
  • Dr. Schivel, the only 3-year-old in the field, won the Bing Crosby this year as Collusion Illusion had done last year at the same age before finishing third in this race. Winner of four races in a row after losing his first two, Dr. Schivel appears to be on the verge of another top effort.
  • Colt Fiction rounds out the field. Runner-up in the Thor's Echo Stakes for California bred horses only in June, he enters the Santa Anita Sprint Championship off a victory against softer foes in an allowance race.

As mentioned previously, Vertical Threat is a perfect four for five in dirt sprints. Three of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The fastest of those came last November when leading from start to finish to draw off by seven and one-half lengths in the Steel Valley Sprint, earning a career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure on par with the 117 figure C Z Rocket earned winning this race last year. Although this field is composed of some top sprinters, none has the early speed of Vertical Threat, which he not only used to win the Steel Valley Sprint but also most recently when winning the Russell Road Stakes. Leading from start to finish on fast fractions for the track at Charles Town, Vertical Threat still pulled away late to win by three and one-half lengths.

Cutting back from seven furlongs to the six furlong trip he so dearly loves, and making his third start after returning from an eight month layoff, I have little doubt jockey Abel Cedillo is going to put Vertical Threat on the lead and play “come catch me” with the field. Considering those tactics were successful in the colt's last two wins and considering the 118 figure earned in one of them is good enough to win in this field, Vertical Threat may be very tough to beat in this situation.

C Z Rocket was claimed for a fairly paltry $40,000 in April of 2020, compared to the more than $1 million he's earned since then winning seven of 10 races. He won the 2020 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar with a 110 ™ figure before a career-best 117 figure in last year's Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit following that when second in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint, C Z Rocket returned in March to win the Hot Springs Stakes (111 figure) and the Count Fleet Stakes (114 figure) and has run well in three races since, all graded stakes, without winning. It's possible the seven year old has lost a step but on the other hand considering he's on the same pattern as before winning last year's edition of this race by cutting back from seven furlongs to six, he must be respected as a contender.

Flagstaff won the Commonwealth Stakes at seven furlongs in April and the Churchill Downs Stakes in May then cut back to six and one half furlongs and ran in to a buzzsaw in Firenze Fire when second in the True North Stakes with a 110 figure in June. Rested nearly three months while pointing to his race, Flagstaff was only a head behind C Z Rocket in the Pat O'Brien and so is on the same pattern he was last year when second in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket before losing by a head to the same horse in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. That effort tied a career-best 117 figure earned when beaten a neck in the Palos Verdes Stakes in January of 2020 at this six furlong trip. Cutting back a furlong while making his second start off a layoff just as he did when almost winning this race last year, Flagstaff has a strong chance to add to his seven for 21 record on dirt and $1 million in career earnings.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Collusion Illusion (114), Colt Fiction (110) and Dr. Schivel (109).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Flagstaff

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, October 2 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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