Hades | Horse Racing Free Tips

Last Chance at the Big Dance: Hades Can Punch Kentucky Derby Ticket in Lexington

Saturday's GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. at Keeneland, the final stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offers a path to Churchill Downs for the first Saturday in May for D. J. Stable and Robert Cotran's Hades (Awesome Slew).

Currently on the outside looking in, Hades sits in 24th place on the leaderboard with 30 points. The GI Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters. The Lexington offers 42 points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.

With a victory, Hades would be in the top 20. A runner-up finish would put him on the bubble.

Hades upset potential Kentucky Derby favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) (third) and next-out GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product (Practical Joke) (second) with a game victory in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 3. Hades suffered his first career defeat finishing a well-beaten fifth behind Fierceness after getting bumped at the start in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Mar. 30.

“We need the points. I'm not going to go there to be number 21 (on the also-eligible list),” trainer Joe Orseno said. “He didn't get a chance to run in the Florida Derby.”

Hades will race with first-time blinkers in the Lexington and will also receive a rider change to Jose Ortiz. Paco Lopez was aboard Hades in his first four career starts.

“I always thought he would be better with blinkers, but he kept winning and I couldn't make the change,” Orseno said. “He'll have blinkers here; little ones.”

Two other Lexington entrants could be on the Derby bubble with a victory: Encino (Nyquist) (20 points) and Liberal Arts (Arrogate) (19 points).

John Battaglia Memorial S. winner Encino, scratched from last weekend's GI Blue Grass S. in favor of this spot, tries dirt for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. Last year's GIII Street Sense S. winner Liberal Arts was an eventful sixth (disqualified and placed eighth for interference after getting rank on the first turn) in the GI Arkansas Derby Mar. 30.

The Lexington field of 10 also includes 5-2 morning-line favorite The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso), who makes his first start since finishing a very game second in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 7.

Saturday's 11-race card at Keeneland also prominently features the GI Jenny Wiley S. Gina Romantica (Into Mischief), a two-time Grade I winner over the lawn in Lexington, held her own against the boys finishing a respectable fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile last time Nov. 4. The 3-1 morning-line favorite is one of four entered for Chad Brown, who has won five of the past six runnings of the 1 1/16-mile turf race for fillies and mares and has six Jenny Wiley victories overall.

Brown will also saddle last term's GI Matriarch S. heroine Surge Capacity (Flintshire {GB}), MGSW Fluffy Socks (Slumber {GB}) and longshot Beaute Cachee (Fr) (Literato {Fr}). “With a lot of my good grass fillies, I like to target this and I like the mile and a sixteenth to start,” Brown said.

The field of 10 also includes: Didia (Arg) (Orpen), a game winner of the GII TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational S. at Gulfstream Jan. 27; and the Charlie Appleby-trained English Rose (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), who captured the G2 Balanchine S. at Meydan last time Feb. 23.

Wet Paint (Blame), three-for-three against stakes company at Oaklawn last season, will face off against California invader Adare Manor (Uncle Mo) in the GI Apple Blossom H. in Hot Springs. Wet Paint, just up in time in last summer's GI Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga, makes her first start since finishing eighth in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff at Santa Anita Nov. 4. Adare Manor, winner of last summer's GI Clement L. Hirsch S. at Del Mar, crossed the line one spot better in seventh at the Championships and kicked off her 5-year-old campaign for Bob Baffert with a runner-up finish as the favorite in the GI Beholder Mile S. at Santa Anita Mar. 9.

Saturday's graded action is rounded out by the GIII Count Fleet H. at Oaklawn and GIII Giant's Causeway S. at Keeneland.

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Week In Review: The Horse to Beat in the Derby? It’s Sierra Leone

When Fierceness (City of Light) put on a show in the GI Florida Derby there didn't seem to be any question over who the favorite would be in the GI Kentucky Derby. The Mike Repole-homebred put on quite a show that day, winning by a record 13 1/2 lengths while earning a 110 Beyer figure, the fastest dirt number recorded by any horse this year. He gave the impression that if he could duplicate that race in the Kentucky Derby, there wouldn't be a horse on the planet that could beat him that day.

Then again…

Just seven days after the Florida Derby, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) turned in a special performance of his own in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. He didn't win by 13 1/2 lengths. The margin was just 1 1 /2 lengths. He didn't get a triple digit Beyer. It was a 98. It was a very different race than the one turned in by Fierceness but was every bit as special, maybe even more so.

His story really begins at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The Coolmore team and Peter Brant have a sharp eye for talent and it looks like this was a horse they had to have. They paid $2.3 million for him, which made him the sale topper. With Brant involved, the horse was sent to his main trainer, Chad Brown.

He broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct and came back in the GII Remsen, where he staged an epic duel with Dornoch (Good Magic). He lost by a nose but Dornoch was hugging the rail on a day where the inside was the place to be.

Sierra Leone kicked off his 3-year-old season winning the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. Catching Freedom (Constitution), who was third, went on to win the GII Louisiana Derby. Resilience (Into Mischief) was fourth in the Risen Star and came back in his next start to win the GII Wood Memorial.

But it was the Blue Grass where Sierra Leone really showed how special he is. He acted up prior to the start and delayed the race. That's oftentimes a kiss of death, but it proved not to be a problem. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard he dropped back to ninth in the ten-horse field before launching his bid. Midway on the turn, he still had to get past six horses, which wasn't any sort problem. He came with monstrous, ground gobbling strides and flew past Just a Touch (Justify) to win going away. He ran like a horse who should love the mile-and-quarter and one who has yet to peak.

“We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse,” said Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Derby. “I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's only had a handful of starts.”

So this was a race where Sierra Leone had to fight and show what he is capable of. He also beat some top quality horses in Just A Touch and GII Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, who was fourth.

That wasn't at all the case for Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Perfectly ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he was wisely taken to the lead and Velazquez was able to slow the pace down. Fierceness was in front the whole way while posting tepid fractions. He went the first quarter in 24.06, the half in 47.50 and the three quarters In 1:11.31. No one was ever going to catch him with the trip he was able to work out. And to make matters even easier on him, neither of his top two challengers fired. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) was fourth, beaten 16 lengths. Hades (Awesome Slew), the GIII Holy Bull S. winner, was even worse, finishing fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths. Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser), a 29-1 shot, was second and 21-1 shot Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo) was third. Both will be among the longest shots on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Then there is Fierceness's erratic nature. He runs well every other start and seems unable to overcome any adversity. In the Derby, with 20 horses, he's never going to get a clear, uncontested lead and a slow pace and probably, at some point will encounter some trouble. It's a very hard race in which to get a trouble-free trip.

When it comes to Fierceness-versus-Sierra Leone, the deciding factor could be the pace. As strong a late kick as he has, Sierra Leone still doesn't want to be 19^th in the Derby with someone, maybe Fierceness, setting slow fractions. If Fierceness can get loose on the lead he can absolutely win, Just don't expect that to happen in a 20-horse race where there is usually a pretty quick pace.

Even without Bob Baffert's participation, this looks like a deep, Derby field with a lot of quality. Can Fierceness win? Despite his tendency to throw in bad races, absolutely. But he's going to have to beat Sierra Leone and so will 18 other horses. He's the horse to beat.

Post Time is on a Roll

The GII Carter at Aqueduct has seen better days. Once one of the most important sprint races on the calendar, it was downgraded to a Grade II for this year and the race attracted all of four horses. But the winner was notable.

Even with the small field, this was the biggest test to date for the Brittany Russell-trained Post Time (Frosted). He came into the race with seven wins from eight career starts but some were arguing that he was just beating up on inferior competition in Maryland. His lone defeat had come in the Perryville S. at Keeneland, the only time he had run outside of Maryland.

As expected, Super Chow (Lord Nelson) got off to an uncontested lead and was allowed to set easy fractions. He went in 24.38 and 48.18 and Post Time was last. He then got carried out to the middle of the track by Super Chow, who has a bad habit of bearing out in the stretch. Despite all that, he was able to get the win, beating Castle Chaos (Palace Music) by a neck.

With Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) both having been retired, Post Time could be on his way to an Eclipse Award.

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Hades To Run On Short Rest In the Lexington

Hades (Awesome Slew), upset winner of the GIII Holy Bull S. in January and a latest fifth to champion 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Mar. 30, will back up on two weeks' rest for the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 13, co-owner Jon Green of D J Stable said in a text message Saturday morning.

“We are entering Hades in the Lexington and have Jose Ortiz in the irons,” Green texted. “Hades is doing great, is sound and ready to ship to KEE on Tuesday.”

Owned in partnership with Robert Cotran and trained by Joe Orseno, Hades won his first three trips to the post including a two-length defeat of Domestic Product (Practical Joke) in the Holy Bull, as Fierceness failed to fire at long odds-on. He was bumped at the start of the Florida Derby as a 17-5 chance and endured a wide trip before finishing 19 3/4 lengths adrift of the romping Fierceness.

“He got sawed off and never leveled off until he pulled himself back to last,” Green explained via text.

Hades has amassed 30 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, good for 18th in the standings prior to the running of Saturday's 100-point preps. The Lexington is the final Derby points race on a scale of 20-10-6-4-2.

Also headed to the Lexington is Encino (Nyquist), who was scratched from Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S. The Godolphin homebred, last-start winner of the John Battaglia Memorial S. Mar. 2, had drawn widest in the field of 11 in the Blue Grass.

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The Two Towers Of Graded Stakes, Oaklawn And Gulfstream, Align Saturday

If you do not happen to be a Lord of the Rings devotee, then as a horse racing fan you might assume that Gandalf, Frodo, Saruman and Sauron were just names some eccentric owners concocted to toy with The Jockey Club.

Well, for true disciples of Tolkein, you understand the 'Two Towers' reference is a major theme in the trilogy, but for our purposes it simply denotes coverage.

This Saturday, both Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park are those poles of power when it comes to authoring graded stakes. Their cards feature Kentucky Derby and Oaks points races.

So, get your palantir ready–alright, alright–here is the slate for Saturday.

The Eye of Timberlake

The GI Arkansas Derby offers 100 Derby points to the winner at Oaklawn as the town of Hot Springs will be invaded by horse enthusiasts who are keen to watch a pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' do battle.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) earned that merit badge at second asking as a 2-year-old. Though he was fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Brad Cox trainee certainly came out of the break to put on a show in last month's GII Rebel S. The WinStar and Siena-owned colt has the Beyer figures to prove he belongs among the top contenders for the first Saturday in May.

“I really like the timing of the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby,” said Cox. “Obviously, he has the experience there now after winning the Rebel. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started this winter. That worked out well and it leads nicely to the Arkansas Derby.”

Muth | Benoit

Opposing him are some other strong candidates like the winner of the GIII Southwest S. Mystik Dan (Goldencents), as well as Liberal Arts (Arrogate) and Time for Truth (Omaha Beach), but Timberlake's main rival is Zedan Racing's Muth (Good Magic). The $2-million 2023 OBS March topper is the latest shipper to Oaklawn for trainer Bob Baffert. Though his connections cannot collect Derby points, his front-running speed makes him a threat. The 3-year-old began his career with a 'Rising Star'-effort at Santa Anita back in June. After running second to Fierceness (City of Light) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he cut back to take the GII San Vincente S. in early January.

The road to the GI Kentucky Oaks travels down Central Avenue and through the GII Fantasy S. The top three finishers from the GIII Honeybee S. return in Lemon Muffin (Collected), Tapit Jenallie (Tapit) and West Omaha (West Coast), but there are some true 'x-factors' drawn. One of them is Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna), who was last seen as the runner-up in the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs in November. Also making the Fantasy gate are the top two runners from the Sunland Park Oaks–undefeated Recharge (Gun Runner) and Candy Aisle (Gun Runner).

One other graded race on Saturday in Hot Springs is the GIII Oaklawn Mile.

Fierceness In His Voice

Coming into the GI Curlin Florida Derby, champion 2-year-old colt and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness is looking to get back to the winner's circle after running third in his only start this year. Owned by Repole Stable, the Todd Pletcher trainee is going to get another crack at the horse that won the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 3, Hades (Awesome Slew).

Fierceness | Ryan Thompson

“Normally I'd be afraid of the outside post but Forte won from the 11 last year so you can overcome that,” said Pletcher. “Everybody knows Gulfstream two-turn races are tricky and I think that's why the start is so important, getting away cleanly. I think what happens in a lot of these two-turn races is the jockeys are so conscious of having to get to the first turn in good position that it can get a little rough leaving the gate sometimes. … The horse gives you a lot of confidence watching him breeze. It seems like he's in really good form, so we're expecting a good performance from him.”

Among the other challengers who are chasing the 100-point Churchill Downs offering is another 'Rising Star'. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) garnered honors from the paper when he won by five lengths going nine furlongs against optional claimers in Hallandale Mar. 1.

“I feel good,” said Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey about Conquest Warrior. “We've had two good races here and I still have a pretty fresh horse. He's trained good over it. He's had a race going a mile and an eighth here, which he handled, obviously, very easily. He came out of it good. I don't think we took anything out of him.”

In the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks–the local 100-point Kentucky Oaks feeder–'TDN Rising Star' Ways and Means (Practical Joke) gets back on track for trainer Chad Brown. The Klaravich homebred debuted a winner by 12 3/4 lengths at Saratoga last summer and was last seen running second in the GI Spinaway S. upstate.

Standing in her way is the heroine of the GII Davona Dale S., Fiona's Magic (St Patrick's Day), and Power Squeeze (Union Rags), who returns to South Florida after raiding the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Gulfstream Park undercard has three other graded races as part of the program, including the GII Pan American S., the GIII Ghostzapper S. and the GIII Orchid S.

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