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TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks

A new kingpin graces the No. 1 slot after a wild, final weekend of 100-point preps. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Fiske Assessment Keeps Winchells in Safe Hands

A Sunday afternoon in August, back in the 1970s, and a student at U.C. Davis is trying to catch up on his history notes ahead of his final semester. There's a knock at the door. Two girls.

“They wanted to know if my roommate Morgan was home,” remembers David Fiske. “He was not. Asked if my roommate Jeff was home. He was not. Asked if my roommate Pat was home. He was not.”

Nothing else for it, so they wondered if Fiske would like to come along to a party.

“I don't know. Where is it?”

“It's at the farm.”

Well, any place that these girls might know couldn't be much of a farm.

“Sure, yeah, I'm finished studying: I'll go with you.”

So they went out to a ranch outside Dixon, next town along the valley. Fiske didn't know a soul, but at one point found himself resting an elbow on a thick stack of papers. He took a look. Stallion contracts.

“Turned out the guy was standing two Appaloosas, breeding to Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse mares,” Fiske says. “And I thought, 'Well, that's interesting: you actually charge people to breed to these horses?'”

He couldn't know it, but he had just stumbled across a life's work. Yet nor was even this the most precious serendipity occasioned by the fact that his three buddies happened to be out that afternoon. Because as he was leaving, Fiske was followed to the door by a girl named Martha, a University of Kentucky graduate who was working with some show horses there. She said to stop out again sometime.

“And that is my wife for the last 45 years,” says Fiske. “Next time I went out there, we went trail-riding. Now, I don't ride. Okay, as a kid I'd play with the entries at Golden Gate Fields and Bay Meadows, in the green sports pages of the San Francisco Chronicle, and see how my picks did the next day. But I'd do the same thing with stocks on the financial page, and certainly did not grow up around horses. So Martha and her friend thought it'd be fun to have me ride a green-broke Appaloosa mare up into those hills there. Turned out that if I was game or stupid enough to do that, she thought I was probably okay.”

Moreover the guy running the farm—”crazy and charismatic, just a ton of fun to be around”–started getting Fiske to help with the horses as his visits became more frequent. To the extent that when he graduated, without no real plan for the rest of his life, Fiske suddenly found that he had a job there.

And without that random apprenticeship, we wouldn't find him now supervising one of the most successful programs of its size on the modern Turf. Winchell Thoroughbreds have produced a champion stallion in Tapit, and a record-breaking newcomer in Gun Runner; they raced the champion sophomore of 2022, in Epicenter (Not This Time); and after his massive step forward in the GII Louisiana Derby last weekend, they once again have a live shot at the GI Kentucky Derby with Disarm–aptly enough, a son of Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare.

Yet teaming up with the Winchell family in 1980 was itself another pretty random development. Martha had brought her husband back to her native state: she was working for Hagyards in Lexington while Fiske, at 28, was in bloodstock advertising. In the course of her work, Martha happened to be asked by the Winchells' manager, who was leaving, whether she knew anyone who might take over.

Verne H. Winchell and his family were due at the farm for their summer vacation, and Fiske thought there could be no harm in meeting the donut king. “Even though the only thing I'd managed by that stage was… Well, I could manage to get my shoes on,” Fiske recalls wryly. “I had not managed anything even close to a 50-horse racing stable, and almost 50 broodmares, and 15 people working on a farm.”

Winchell had previously operated a farm in California–racing the eponymous Donut King to win the Champagne S. in 1961, plus homebred Mira Femme to be co-champion juvenile filly five years later–but had recently upgraded his program to Kentucky.

The meeting, the interview–whatever it was–it went well. Fiske was asked to stay for lunch, then dinner, and started as manager two weeks later.

“Mr. Winchell was an intuitive guy,” he remembers. “He would go by his gut, and I guess that worked out to my benefit. I had the best job in town: a 320-acre park to live in, pool, tennis court, a 50-horse racing stable to play with–and owners who lived on the other side of the country! I'd talk to Mr. Winchell long distance a couple times a week, and they'd come and stay at the farm for a few weeks every summer. Looking back, it's remarkable that somebody he'd just met was handed the keys and told, 'Have at it.'”

But Verne's instincts were amply vindicated. There had been no grand plan, no real strategy. New barns were going up; there were 50 stallion shares to distribute; broodmares from Maryland to California; half a dozen trainers spread round the country. Something was working, to be fair, in that Fiske reckons Verne bred at least one stakes winner from 36 consecutive crops. But this unsupervised young man was soon making things work better yet. By the time Verne died, in 2002, Fiske had helped him from around 25 stakes winners to 80–and these had included homebred 1991 Turf male champion Tight Spot (His Majesty), Fleet Renee (Seattle Slew), Sea Cadet (Bolger) and Olympio (Naskra).

A key moment had been when they started funneling all the young stock through Keith Asmussen in Texas. One of Asmussen's sons, Cash, was taking tax breaks from a brilliant career in Europe–and where else could you get your yearlings broken in by a champion jockey? Around that time Verne was becoming disenchanted with the Californian circuit, and turning increasingly to Michael Dickinson and “this new upstart trainer named Steve Asmussen.”

Dickinson, of course, had Tapit, a rather frustrating racehorse, but a game-changer afterwards. “He was clearly the best stallion of the first part of this century,” Fiske says proudly. “He did things that other horses had never done. I mean, it would be record earnings on top of record earnings. As leading first-crop sire, he was also leading sire of 2-year-olds. I sat in the Keeneland library and looked as far back as I could, and Tapit was only the seventh stallion to do that. And the others were all horses like Danzig. The next guy to do it was Uncle Mo, and the next after him was….?”

Gun Runner! The horse that has crowned this second cycle, where Verne's heir Ron had gone “all in” with Steve Asmussen.

“We started giving Steve a few horses, and he's winning races for us at Bandera Downs and Trinity Meadows and Birmingham,” Fiske recalls. “And as he learned his craft, he just got better and better. Soon he'd gotten to a point where he was winning more 2-year-old races than anybody in the country.

“Now if you're going to have a broodmare band, as opposed to just buying yearlings, that gives you the longest risk horizon of all. You buy a yearling and give it to a trainer, and it doesn't win, you're out the purchase price and some training. But doing what we do, first they've got to get pregnant, then they've got to carry the pregnancy, then you've got to get the foal–and it's like three years to find out where you are. So if you send these horses to somebody who just hammers the life out of them, that will impact what their brothers and sisters are worth, what their mother's worth, the whole deal. And since you won't be winning stakes races unless you first break your maiden, Steve started to get more and more of the horses until pretty soon he had most of them.”

Fiske, then, has served as the hinge connecting two generations of Winchells and two generations of Asmussens. Ron was only 30 when he took over from his late father. He'd only been on the scene sporadically through high school and college, and was then away cutting his teeth in business, building sports bars in Las Vegas. But he took to his youthful responsibilities with much the same flair as had Fiske himself, a couple of decades previously.

“He's been around it all his life,” Fiske notes. “I have winner's circle photos of him 'in utero,' when Mrs. Winchell was pregnant! And I think he always liked it: the action, the volatility was attractive to him. He's got a pretty good streak of gambler in him. But I tell people he's the hardest-working man I know that doesn't have to work. He's constantly on the go. I'm real proud of him, having known him since he was an 8-year-old kid and seeing everything that he's accomplished.”

Gun Runner having himself thrived with maturity, his stock was widely expected to do much the same.

“But he came up from Florida during the spring meet at Keeneland,” Fiske reminds us. “And Steve had only trained him a little while when he was, like, 'Holy cow, this thing's good.' He could have run earlier, but to Steve's credit, he just held off, didn't take him to Saratoga, just planned out a series of races for him to maximize his talent. Because we weren't buying horses to be what Scott Blasi [Asmussen's assistant] calls 'go-karts.' They're meant to be proper Derby horses, Classic horses, like Midnight Bourbon, like Epicenter.”

At stud, moreover, the Winchells rowed in from the start. Fiske admits that they didn't breed too many to Tapit, for instance, when he was $15,000. Typically they've given their retired colts half a dozen mares to see how they work out. But they sent Gun Runner 17.

“And they all came out looking like little Gun Runners,” Fiske marvels. “They had incredible consistency. So we pushed on with a dozen or so mares the second year, just on the strength of how the foals looked. I mean, if none of them can run, that's a pretty slender limb that we were crawling out on.”

But he remembers being at Churchill one morning, and asking Asmussen how one of Gun Runner's first winners had come back.

“Oh, great,” Asmussen said. “These things can take a lot of training.” And he grabbed one of the partition pipes round the box where they were watching work. “That's what his legs feel like today.”

Fiske replied that he was unsurprised. Blasi had once told him that Gun Runner had never even seen an ice bucket.

Asmussen shook his head. “Not only has he never seen an ice bucket,” he said. “We never used to do up his legs.”

To be fair, Lady Luck extracted ample redress last year. Losing Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) was harrowing. Then they ran into the unaccountable Rich Strike (Keen Ice) in the Derby with Epicenter, who ended up being vanned off the course at the Breeders' Cup.

“I've told the people that do those new owner seminars, that they should just play the last 75 yards of the Derby, from our point of view,” Fiske says. “Because that pretty much encapsulates the highs and the lows right there. I mean, if you can't handle getting beat like that, and can't handle having a horse of the caliber of Midnight Bourbon drop dead, then you need to find another game to play. On the other hand, if most people had Midnight Bourbon, that would be a career horse for them. Or if they could finish second in the Derby, huge.”

As a yearling purchase, Epicenter was a tribute to the balance of this program.

“We have talked about this at length,” Fiske says. “Because it seems like our successes break down to almost 50/50, homebreds versus purchases. Tight Spot, Fleet Renee, now Gunite (Gun Runner); and then you've got Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), Epicenter, Midnight Bourbon.

“We're kind of old-timey in that we don't have stallions, don't have boarders, and we're not a commercial yearling producer, per se. We're either a little big farm or a big little farm, I never know which. But almost every other property in town has one of those three things.”

That's not to say that they don't sell yearlings. Under Verne Winchell, the largest foal crop was 42 or 44, and he'd want to lose half before they were broken. But that was never the driving focus when putting matings together.

“In fact, I remember standing with him one day watching a yearling Franklin Groves was selling for well over a million,” Fiske recalls. “And Mr. Winchell just goes, 'I don't know why that would be exciting to someone like Franklin. He has several other millions, and that's just one more.' Mr. Winchell got a lot more enjoyment just out of watching the horses run.

“When I came in, it was all starting to change from being a sport. You still had the old moneyed guys, with blow money they could write off against other income, deciding foal shares on a flip of a coin. Everything has become more professional, on every level. Look at the veterinary practices in town here: among the best in the world. But I used to pick up my wife after work and everybody was walking around with a plastic specimen cup full of bourbon. I don't think that happens anymore! Nowadays you come to a sale and you might see more attorneys and financial planners and bloodstock agents than actual horsemen.”

However well this program has played a changing landscape, there naturally remain unrequited ambitions. Especially after last year's tough beat, to share Asmussen's first Derby would be priceless. But whatever happens from here, Fiske proudly compares the Winchell program to the way Kentucky itself punches above its weight.

“Everybody thinks it's hillbilly, but we've so many artists, writers, actors, musicians here,” he says. “And we have our signature industries. You tell me the signature industry of Indiana or Oregon? And actually that's really frustrating for Ron, recently, now that he's a racetrack and slot machine owner in Kentucky, and has to deal with the legislators dragging their feet in Frankfort. It's like, 'Guys, you've got this thing that you can build on, this thing most states don't have. You're blessed!'”

As are we all. But none could feel more so than Fiske himself, looking back on four decades sharing the Midas touch of his patrons. Yet none of it would have happened had any of his roommates been home that afternoon those girls knocked the door.

“Just some fortuitous events and decisions, I guess,” Fiske says with a shrug. “But a lot of the guys on the farm have been there for years. The veterinarian that does our repro work, I first met him in 1976. Steve has been training for us forever. And I've had the same job 42 years. So there's kind of a theme there. Maybe I'm unimaginative, or lazy, but it does kind of gnaw at me because of our recent success. I don't know that I do anything different than anybody else. Everybody I know in this business is working hard. But somehow or another, we've got all this stuff happening.

“I'm something of a student of history, that's part of what attracted me to this: the traditions, the genealogies, the great breeders and their methods, the Greentrees and the Whitneys, going back to the English and French sides of it. But Gun Runner coming on the heels of Tapit?” A shake of the head, a grateful smile. “I don't know if that ever happened before.”

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Godolphin KEENOV Purchases Set To Shine in Japan

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for this weekend running at Nakayama and Hanshin Racecourses, the latter of which plays host to the season's first Japanese Classic, the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) for the 3-year-old fillies:

Saturday, April 8, 2023
4th-NKY, ¥10,480,000 ($79k), Maiden, 3yo, 1200m
WORLDS COLLIDE (c, 3, War Front–Elizabeth Browning {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) is the first foal out of a winner of the G2 Kilboy Estate S. whose full-brother Johannes Vermeer (Ire) took the G1 Criterium International S. in France. Elizabeth Browning, who topped the 2017 Tattersalls Autumn Horses In Training Sale on a bid of 700,000gns from Alex Elliott, agent, is also a sister to the listed-winning Sapa Inca (Ire), G1 National S. runner-up Wembley (Ire) and Group 2-placed Petite Mustique (Ire). Worlds Collide was the most expensive of seven purchases by Paca Paca Farm at the 2020 Keeneland November Sale, hammering for $400,000. The second-priciest of those acquisitions, the $250,000 Freewheeling (War Front) offered less than 25 hips later, broke his maiden at second asking in Japan last weekend. B-Lynch Bages Ltd & MacQuarie Bloodstock (KY)

Sunday, April 9, 2023
2nd-HSN, ¥10,480,000 ($79k), Maiden, 3yo, 1200m
DIXIE GUNNER (c, 3, Gun Runner–Dixie Crisp, by Dixieland Band) made a pair of starts over 1400 meters last term, finishing second and third, respectively, and cuts back slightly for this seasonal comebacker. Purchased for $150,000 at KEENOV in 2020, the bay is a half-brother to SW & GSP Southern Freedom (Pure Prize), SW Reconstruction (Broken Vow) and GSP Epic Dreamer (Orb). Yuga Kawada has the call for trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida, who will team with Oka Sho favorite Liberty Island (Jpn) later in the program. B-J D Stuart, P C Bance, AR Enterprises & G Todaro (KY)

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Johannes Providing a String of Firsts for McCloskeys

After watching the races just across the street from their home in Del Mar, Joe and Debby McCloskey decided to take the plunge into racehorse ownership with the purchase of a filly by Congrats at the 2014 Keeneland September sale. Now, nearly a decade later, Johannes (Nyquist)–the first foal out of that first filly–has become the couple's first stakes winner and the 3-year-old gave promise of more firsts to come in the near-future with an authoritative second stakes victory in the Pasadena S. at Santa Anita last Sunday.

Johannes began his racing career on the main track, but immediately found success on the turf where he broke his maiden by nine lengths at Santa Anita Dec. 31. He overcame a world of trouble to win the Mar. 5 Baffle S. before making his two-turn debut in the Pasadena.

“It was our very first stakes win,” Joe McCloskey, a retired businessman, said of the Baffle. “Obviously, it was fantastic and to be able to back it up with another stakes win, you talk about firsts. Cuyathy was our first horse, and this is her first foal, and now two stakes races back-to-back. There are a lot of firsts with that horse.”

Recalling his first foray into racing, McCloskey said, “We have a condo that is right across the street from Del Mar, so it was convenient to go over and watch the horses. Eventually we got hooked up with a couple of trainers and said, 'Let's give it a shot.'”

The California couple headed to Kentucky with a plan–sort of– and a dream.

“We were pretty naive back then,” McCloskey said with a chuckle. “We put a budget together of $100,000, with $50,000 for a horse. And we thought we would get one out at Keeneland and start there. We thought that was going to be plenty of money.

“So we went out to Keeneland and my wife Debby and I were wondering how we would know if it was the right horse, when will we know? So Debby put it out there and dreamt about and said, 'I know if there is a heart on the horse somehow, a heart comes into my mind, that will be our horse.' We get to our book–when you can get a horse for $50,000–and the first one comes up and the hair on the cowlick kind of looked like a heart, maybe this is it? So we bid on it, but we got outbid. Maybe there needs to be a better heart? Surprisingly when Cuyathy came by, our trainer said what do you think? And lo and behold, we look down at the chestnut and it was in the shape of the heart. And the hammer dropped at exactly $50,000. Our trainer thinks we are nuts at this point, but anyway that's how we got Cuyathy.”

The McCloskeys ended up taking another filly home from Keeneland that year, going to $8,000 to acquire a daughter of Curlin they named Reiki Baby.

Cuyathy went on to win three times in 20 starts, including a third-place effort in the 2018 Kalookan Queen S., and earn $107,923. Reiki Baby, who didn't make it to the races until she was four, was a first-out winner at Santa Anita in 2017 and twice second before being retired after four starts. Both mares, now 10, ultimately became the McCloskeys' broodmare band.

“People told us, if you think racing is tough, breeding is even worse, it's tougher,” McCloskey said. “So we looked at each other and said, 'Let's give it a shot.' We are a micro-breeders, those are the only two mares that we have. But they were our first two horses. Literally, Cuyathy was the first horse we bought and Reiki Baby was the second one.”

The breeding operation got off to a slow start when Reiki Baby's first foal, Lightheart (Blame) failed to make it to the races. But it has picked up steam thanks to Johannes, whose dam was producing her first foal by Nyquist at about the same time Reiki Baby was producing another colt by the GI Kentucky Derby winner.

“We bred both Reiki Baby and Cayathy to Nyquist,” McCloskey said. “People said we were nuts. I said, this whole game is nuts, let's just go all in, let's breed both to Nyquist and maybe one will catch.”

Johannes, along with Reiki Baby's second foal Reiquist, began his racing career back east with trainer Bill Morey, but both suffered some bad luck.

“Billy had both our horses at Churchill and in one day, I get a phone call he goes, 'Joe, Reiquist has a fracture, we have to ship him back to Rood and Riddle in Lexington. And Johannes has some chips. I said, 'You've got to be kidding–this is one phone call and my first two horses. Long story short, we brought Johannes over to Rood and Riddle, took out a few small chips and Dr. Bramlage saw a little issue on the other leg, so they took it out and we gave him time off to come back. And then Rood and Riddle repaired Reiquist's fracture and he's at Santa Anita. He just breezed three furlongs twice already and he's looking really good.”

Both horses are now in the Southern California barn of trainer Tim Yakteen, who McCloskey credits with a slow and steady approach to the races.

“Tim Yakteen is probably one of the best, most conservative trainers there are when it comes to getting your horse back in good shape,” McCloskey said. “People say you have to have patience in this business. In this business with Tim, you have to have glacial patience. But he knows his business.”

In his first start for Yakteen, Johannes was a solid third behind Fort Warren (Curlin), subsequently third in the GII San Vicente S., and Spun Intended (Hard Spun).

“He was just coming back off a layoff and he came in third, but he really challenged Fort Warren,” McCloskey said of that effort last October. “I was sitting in a box next to Bob Baffert and Bob came down and said you've got a nice horse there. So the dirt looked really good then.”

Johannes took a step back next time out, however, finishing a well-beaten fifth at Del Mar in November.

“We brought him over to Del Mar, but we shipped him in the day before the race and he got very nervous and he was washed out and he didn't perform well there,” McCloskey said. “At that point, we decided to see what would happen if we put him on the turf because his mother had success sprinting over both Tapeta and turf.”

Of that first try on the lawn that resulted in an emphatic maiden score, McCloskey said, “Boom. We put him on the turf and it was like, I guess he likes the turf. He won by nine lengths and he wasn't even asked.”

Making his next start in the 6 1/2-furlong Baffle S., Johannes was mired in traffic down the hill and had nowhere to go turning for home, where things only got worse for the dark bay colt as he was jostled about before ultimately slicing between foes and bounding away once in the clear in the final strides (video).

“I've never seen a horse get into that much traffic, have to steady that much, and then he sliced and diced picking his path,” McCloskey recalled. “I tell you, I would have taken all my money off the table halfway through the race. I thought there was no way this horse could do anything, but he popped out and still won by 1 1/2 lengths. I went up to Umberto [Rispoli] after the race and his head was still shaking. I said, 'You got in a little trouble?' and he said, 'This horse is a freak to be able to come through there.'”

After the drama of the Baffle, Johannes's win when stretched to one mile in the Pasadena S. was somewhat ho-hum. Settled at the back of the pack, the heavy favorite powered to the lead at midstretch and sauntered clear to an easy 3 1/2-length victory (video).

The pair of stakes victories have likely earned Johannes a spot in graded-stakes company, but connections are still weighing their options.

“Right now, we are pointed towards the [GII] American S. [at Churchill Downs] on Derby Day,” McCloskey said. “We know we want to keep him with 3-year-olds at this point. So that's the race that is on screen. But because it's Derby day and because of the way he got a little nervous just shipping in to Del Mar, we might look for some other options, so maybe instead of 75,000 people, we have 10,000. We will get a couple 3-year-old races in him and from there, if he continues to do what we think he can do, we will look at the 3-and-up races. Then, in the best of all worlds, of course, you look at the Breeders' Cup in November. Do we even have a shot at that? We hope so. It's one step at a time in this business for sure.”

The McCloskeys also have plenty to look forward to from their two-horse broodmare band. Reiki Baby has a 2-year-old colt by Mendelssohn and a yearling filly by Practical Joke. Cayathy has a 2-year-old filly named Sea Dancer (Mastery) who is in training with Morey at Keeneland, as well as a yearling filly by Gun Runner. She produced a filly by Knicks Go this year and will be bred back to Mandaloun.

“We are smart enough to know that you can't make a lot of money in this business unless you are super lucky,” McCloskey said. “But with that Gun Runner filly out of Cuyathy, it's giving us cause for pause to think maybe we sell that filly–because you can't keep them all–or do you maybe say, if Reiki Baby isn't doing what we want, do we keep that filly and still have two [broodmares]. But it's not like we are going to have five or six more. We are happy with two, we get to see them, and maybe we would have one more.”

McCloskey said he and his wife have no specific goals for their racing and breeding operation, but are content to enjoy the ride.

“I've seen a lot of smart people lose a lot of money in this business,” he said. “So we will just try to keep it balanced, to have fun and, as long as we are having fun and the horses are helping pay for some of the bills, we are happy. This is a crazy business. It's just a matter of making sure that you're enjoying it every day. And we are right now.”

While they are enjoying the business, they are also very focused on paying it forward.

“We balance everything we do back on the other side,” McCloskey stressed. “We are big supporters of a place here in California called Laughing Pony Rescue, which is in Rancho Santa Fe, and we save a lot of horses there. We donate to CARMA and New Vocations, some of those people have taken our horses. We think it's important that anybody who is in this business balances it out by helping the other side of the equation, the ones that are retired.”

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