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Equibase Analysis: Known Agenda Could Upset Greatest Honour In Florida Derby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park brings together a field of 11 with 100 “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points going to the winner and guaranteeing a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May.

The likely betting favorite is Greatest Honour on the strength of back-to-back wins in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Trained by Shug McGaughey, who won the race in 2013 with Orb, Greatest Honour is the logical choice.

Then again, Todd Pletcher, who has won four of the last eight editions of the Florida Derby, saddles Known Agenda off a sparkling 11 length win over the track at the distance of the race.

Horses with positive results in recent stakes also must be counted as contenders and there are three of those. Papetu was third behind Greatest Honour in the Fountain of Youth after rallying from last of 10 in the early stages. Nova Rags finished second last month in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. Spielberg ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert off a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. T

he rest of the field consists of a number of horses who have failed to be a factor in stakes or which are stepping up in class off maiden or allowance races. Among those, Collaborate was a 12 length winner at a mile (one-turn) last month in a maiden race and Quantum Leap won a maiden race at this nine furlong trip, both at Gulfstream Park. Soup and Sandwich won a two-turn race allowance race at Tampa. Sigiloso moves to dirt off a pair of modest efforts in stakes on grass including when fifth in the Palm Beach Stakes last month. Jirafales was fifth in both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, while Southern Passage most recently was runner-up in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park and sports a career record of one-for-eight.

There's no doubt Greatest Honour has impressively dispatched a total of 17 other horses in winning the Holy Bull Stakes by nearly six lengths in January then the Fountain of Youth Stakes by a length and one-half last month. There's also no arguing Todd Pletcher always has a very strong hand with whatever horse he starts in the Florida Derby, having won four of the last eight editions. That's why Known Agenda will get slight preference over Greatest Honour as the top win contender in this year's race.

In only the second start of his career last November and stretching out off a runner-up effort at six furlongs, Known Agenda won a race at the nine furlong trip of the Florida Derby and did so with the maturity of a much older horse as he battled head-and-head the entire last eighth of a mile, never giving up. After a poorer third place effort in the Remsen Stakes last December and following a poor fifth place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, Known Agenda grew up big time to win last month at Gulfstream Park at this mile and one-eighth distance like a horse with a very bright future. After stalking in fourth position early, Known Agenda moved easily while four paths wide to the lead then opened up to win by 11 length.

Not only was the 103 Equibase Speed Figure higher than the 101 figure Greatest Honour earned winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes one day later, there's little doubt Known Agenda could have run faster if needed. Although already proven at the trip, Known Agenda has breeding to win this race and many more stakes for three year olds. An easy STATS Race Lens query reveals his sire, Curlin, has had seven male three year old stakes winners at distances from nine to 10 furlongs from just 15 horses. That group includes Good Magic, Exaggerator and Vino Rosso. As such, I believe Known Agenda is going to take a big step forward to win the Florida Derby and stamp himself a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby as well.

Greatest Honour was defeated by Known Agenda by a head last November at the distance of the Florida Derby before winning three straight races including the two local preps for this race. In each win starting with the one on December 26 which earned a career-best 106 figure, Greatest Honour has shown the traits of a tremendous athlete, moving as the jockey asks and whooshing by the field. In the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, Greatest Honour was five paths wide on the far turn when moving from eighth to fourth, then to the lead, while unthreatened in the late stages. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for the last two wins and rides back, and there will be a lot of adrenaline flowing in the race as his brother Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be aboard main threat Known Agenda. There's little doubt Greatest Honour loves the Gulfstream Park surface where he is undefeated in three races, and the stretch battle between these two horses could be one for the ages.

Spielberg continues to earn points to run in the Kentucky Derby and has 17 points to date. With 40 points to the runner-up in the Florida Derby perhaps good enough to guarantee a spot in the gate in Louisville in May, that could be the key to this hard trying colt being competitive to the end. Although he earned a career best 103 figure breaking his maiden at a mile last November, Spielberg hasn't improved since then although he did earn a 101 figure when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. After a poor fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January, Spielberg was clearly second by four lengths over the third horse in the Southwest Stakes in February although no match for winner Essential Quality, who won by a similar margin. One thing which is notable is in spite of all of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert has achieved, he has never won the Florida Derby so when compared to the fact McGaughey and Pletcher have accounted for five of the last eight winners in this race, it appears Spielberg is going to have to greatly exceed his best effort to date to win the race although that is not an impossible task.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Collaborate (97), Jirafales (86), Nova Rags (89), Papetu (96), Quantum Leap (92), Sigiloso (99), Soup and Sandwich (96) and Southern Passage (93).

Win Contenders:
Known Agenda
Greatest Honour
Spielberg

Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'N' Dale Farms – Grade 1
Race 14 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, March 27 – Post Time 6:40 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $750,000

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Mandatory Payout Of Gulfstream’s Rainbow 6 Scheduled For Florida Derby Day

A mandatory payout of the 20-cent Rainbow 6 is scheduled for Saturday's Gulfstream Park program, which will include 10 stakes, headlined by the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farm at Xalapa.

Should the popular multi-race wager go unsolved through Friday the pool is expected to swell into the multi-millions.

The Late Pick 5 and the Late Pick 4, both boasting all-stakes sequences, will have guaranteed pools of $750,000 Saturday.

The 20-cent Rainbow 6 jackpot pool will be guaranteed at $1,250,000 Thursday.

The Rainbow 6 went unsolved Wednesday for the 11th racing day in a row since a March 6 mandatory payout. Multiple tickets with all six winners were each worth $6,041.44 Thursday.

The Rainbow 6 carryover jackpot is usually only paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70 percent of that day's pool usually goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool. However, on mandatory-payout days, the entire pool is paid out to the bettor or bettors with the most winners in the six-race sequence.

WHO'S HOT: Leonel Reyes continued to be longshot players' best friend, scoring aboard Taamer ($13.20) in Race 1 and Ninetydaysofwinter ($50.60) in Race 4.

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Sadler’s Joy Back For More In Pan American

Four years after earning the first graded-stakes victory of his long career in the same race, Woodslane Farm's Grade 1 winner Sadler's Joy returns looking to snap a nine-race losing streak in Saturday's $200,000 Pan American (G2) presented by Rood and Riddle at Gulfstream Park.

The 60th running of the 1 ½-mile Pan American for 4-year-olds and up on turf is part of a blockbuster program that includes 10 stakes, six graded, worth $1.85 million anchored by the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa, one of the country's premier Triple Crown preps.

Post time for the first of 14 races is 11:30 a.m.

Now 8, Sadler's Joy won the Pan American in 2017 and was fourth in 2018, but did not run in either of the past two years as trainer Tom Albertrani has looked to spread out his stable star's races. The Kitten's Joy gelding has started once this year, closing to be fourth by 2 ¼ lengths in the 1 ½-mile W.L. McKnight (G3) Jan. 23 at Gulfstream.

“He's doing as well as ever so hopefully we'll get another good trip out of him and go from there,” Albertrani said. “We just keep him on a regular routine, training-wise. You look at his work tab and you don't see the fancy, fast works or anything; just normal, kind of routine works just to keep him ticking over between races.”

Sadler's Joy is, by far, the richest horse in the Pan American with a bankroll of more than $2.6 million from 35 starts, with seven wins, four seconds and 11 thirds. All but one of his last 29 races have come in graded-stakes, his most recent win coming in the Red Smith (G3) at Aqueduct in the fall of 2019.

Last year, Sadler's Joy went 0-for-8 with four thirds including the Mac Diarmida (G2) at Gulfstream and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, and was disqualified from first to fourth for interference in the Bowling Green (G2). He won the Mac Diarmida in 2018, the year after becoming a Grade 1 winner in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga.

“If he wasn't in the barn, it'd be pretty strange. When that day comes, it's going to be a sad day when we don't see him walking down the shedrow anymore,” Albertrani said. “He's just been one of those types of horses that tries every race. He puts everything into every time he runs and its' just a pleasure having a horse like that.

“He puts up a game effort every single time, whether he gets beat a neck or a head in so many of these close races. And it's only because of his running style that prevents him from getting up in time,” he added. “We just need to get everything to work, as always.”

Albertrani also won the Pan American in 2013 with Twilight Eclipse, who set the world record for 1 ½ miles on the grass (2:22.63). Twilight Eclipse raced until the spring of his 8-year-old season, making the last of his 40 career starts for trainer Graham Motion.

“It would be nice to chalk up another win in there. That was just a really great day. I didn't actually know it until I heard the announcer say it was a track record. Then when we found out it was a world record, it was great, and for a horse like him, too,” Albertrani said. “He was another warrior. We've had a few and the ones that stuck around the barn a long time, they're more of a pleasure to have around.”

Jose Ortiz is named to ride from Post 3 in the field of eight.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Pan American six times including twice with the same horse, Fraise (1993, 1994) and Newsdad (2012, 2014), and will send out Summer Wind Equine's stakes-winning homebred Moon Over Miami.

Moon Over Miami, 4, began racing on dirt before making the switch to turf in the one-mile Cutler Bay on last year's Florida Derby program, running eighth. Fourth by two lengths in the Hall of Fame (G2) at Saratoga, he captured the 1 5/16-mile Dueling Grounds Derby prior to a disappointing effort in the 1 ¼-mile Belmont Derby (G1) to cap his sophomore season.

In his lone start this year, Moon Over Miami overcame traffic trouble to be third by 1 ¼ lengths in the Feb. 27 Mac Diarmida. Junior Alvarado rides from Post 7 at co-topweight of 122 pounds.

“We stretched him out at Kentucky Downs last fall in their derby and he won that. That was a little longer race. He doesn't seem to run the turns real well, so it seems like the slower pace of the longer races helps him get around the turns a little better,” Mott said.

“His last race was a mile and three-eighths and he was finishing up very well when he finally got out, which was a little late in the game. He came running and got up for third and deserves a chance in the Pan American,” he added. “I think he's going to turn into a useful horse going that trip.”

Bemma's Boy sprung a 9-1 upset of Grade 1-winning stablemate Zulu Alpha in last year's Pan American, and trainer Mike Maker will have another pair of contenders this year in Cross Border and Temple.

“That's why you need two or three of them,” Maker said. “Zulu didn't have the greatest trip last time and we were fortunate to have Bemma's Boy pick up the pieces.”

Three Diamonds Farm's Cross Border exits a strong third behind Colonel Liam and Largent in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) Jan. 23 at Gulfstream, a race Zulu Alpha won in 2020. Colonel Liam came back to win the Muniz Memorial Classic (G2) March 20.

“He ran another big race last time and was flattered the other day by Colonel Liam,” Maker said. “We expect another strong effort from him.”

Cross Border was beaten a neck by Spooky Channel in the W.L. McKnight last winter, and became a graded-stakes winner upon the disqualification of Sadler's Joy in last summer's Bowling Green. Tyler Gaffalione gets the riding assignment from Post 1.

“He's run well here, but he shows up everywhere,” Maker said. “He's a horse that never disappoints and loves his job.”

Paradise Farm Corp.'s Temple will be making his fourth start of the Championship Meet following seconds in the Claiming Crown Emerald and McKnight and a fourth, beaten 1 ¼ lengths, in the Mac Diarmida. The 5-year-old gelding has been worse than third just once in 11 career tries over the Gulfstream course, four of them wins, the most recent in an optional claiming allowance last April.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call from Post 2.

Completing the field are 2020 Mystic Lake Derby runner-up Angelus Warrior; Feb. 11 Gulfstream allowance winner Churn N Burn; Grade 3-placed Rijeka, with two wins and two seconds in five tries at the distance; and Sir Sahib, placed in four graded-stakes including the 2020 Northern Dancer (G1) and most recently fifth in the Mac Diarmida.

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Crazy Beautiful Will Try To Follow Swiss Skydiver’s Example In Gulfstream Park Oaks

Trainer Kenny McPeek will be on a quest to win back-to-back runnings of the $200,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) Saturday when he saddles Crazy Beautiful for the 1 1/16-mile stakes for 3-year-old fillies.

Last year, McPeek saddled Swiss Skydiver for a 9-1 upset victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks that would set the tone for an Eclipse Award-winning campaign that included a victory in the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga and a photo-finish victory over Authentic in the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico.

The 51st running of the Gulfstream Park Oaks will be among 10 stakes on Saturday's program that will be headlined by the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farm at Xalapa. Saturday's 14-race card will also be highlighted by as mandatory payout of the Rainbow 6 pool, which is expected to swell into the multi-millions should the popular multi-race wager go unsolved through Friday. There will also be guaranteed pools of $750,000 for the Late Pick 5 and Late Pick 4.

The Gulfstream Park Oaks will offer 170 qualifying points for the April 30 Kentucky Oaks (G1) on a 100-40-20-10 basis.

Phoenix Thoroughbred III's Crazy Beautiful is coming off a second-place finish in the Feb. 27 Davona Dale (G2) at Gulfstream. The daughter of Liam's Map rallied from well off the pace in her 2021 debut to finish a distant second to going-away winner Wholebodemeister. She was making her first start since finishing off the board in the Nov. 6 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland.

“She ran great here. I think that she's training well enough that we should go right now,” McPeek said.

Crazy Beautiful launched her career last summer with back-to-back wins at Ellis Park, including the Debutante Stakes before finishing second in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky-bred filly was favored to win the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland but was no match for stablemate Simply Ravishing while finishing second.

Jose Ortiz has the mount aboard Crazy Beautiful, who was rated as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

Trainer Todd Pletcher is scheduled to saddle Con Lima for a return to dirt in the Oaks. Multiple graded stakes-placed on turf in her two most recent starts, the daughter of Commissioner is hardly heading to foreign territory. The Texas-bred filly, who is owned in a partnership by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, graduated over Gulfstream's main track July 31 after finishing a close second to Wholebodemeister in her debut over a sloppy track three weeks earlier.

“It's something we've been thinking about for a while. Being a graded-stakes and all – and she seems to like Gulfstream – we decided to give it a try,” Pletcher said.

After finishing second behind Simply Ravishing in the off-the-turf P. G. Johnson, Con Lima returned to Gulfstream to finish second in the off-the-turf Our Dear Peggy. Sent around two turns on turf for her next two starts, Con Lima romped to front-running optional claiming allowance victories by open lengths. She showed the way before fading to second in the Jan. 30 Sweetest Chant (G3) and came back to overcome trouble leaving the starting gate to close from far back and finish second in the Herecomesthebride (G3) Feb. 27.

“Her races on the turf have been very good, but she's been consistent on both surfaces,” Pletcher said. “It seemed like the right trip to try it.”

Irad Ortiz Jr. has the return mount on Con Lima, who is rated second at 3-1 in the morning line.

Competitive Speed, a sprint-stakes winner owned by John Minchello, is scheduled to make her first start around two turns Saturday. The daughter of Competitive Edge is coming off a third-place finish in the one-turn mile Davona Dale, in which she made a wide middle move to challenge front-running Wholebodemeister on the turn into the homestretch before weakening to finish third, 1 ½ lengths behind Crazy Beautiful.

Competitive Speed broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park West last July in her second career start while racing for a $25,000 claiming tag. She came back to win an optional claiming allowance at Gulfstream by 4 ½ lengths going away.

“After she won that race, I said, 'Oh, I think we've got something,” trainer Javier Gonzalez said.

Competitive Speed came back to win the 6 ½-furlong Glitter Woman by three lengths before finishing a troubled sixth in the Forward Gal and third in the Davona Dale.

“She's one of those horses that never make you look bad,” Gonzalez said. “She has a big heart in a small package.”

Gonzalez is confident that Competitive Speed will handle two turns.

“I don't think two turns will be a problem for her,” Gonzalez said. “She's been working very good and finishing up strong.”

Leonel Reyes has the return mount aboard Competitive Speed.

Juddmonte Farms Inc.'s Millefeuille will seek to rebound from a seventh-place finish in the Davona Dale Saturday. The Bill Mott-trained daughter of Curlin had previously finished second at Aqueduct in the Dec. 6 Demoiselle, in which she set the pace before falling a half-length short of holding off undefeated Malathaat.

Tyler Gaffalione is scheduled to ride the homebred filly for the first time Saturday.

Trainer Dale Romans, who has saddled the winners of three Gulfstream Park Oaks, is scheduled to saddle Calumet Farm's Bow Bow Girl and Robert Baron's Len Lo Lady for this year's running.

Bow Bow Girl is coming off an impressive maiden score at Gulfstream Park in her third career start. The homebred daughter of Oxbow set a pressured pace before drawing off to win the 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race by 4 ½ lengths. Len Lo Lady broke her maiden by more than 10 lengths in a $50,000 claiming race prior to finishing third in a mile optional claiming allowance.

Corey Lanerie has the return call on Bow Bow Girl, while Hall of Famer John Velazquez is scheduled to ride Len Lo Lady for the first time.

Dennis Smith and Daniel Walters' Pens Street will seek to improve on a a distant fourth in the Davona Dale last time out.

The Rohan Crichton-trained daughter of Street Sense, who finished first and second in her first two career starts, will be ridden by Miguel Vasquez.

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