Mar. 11 Insights: Prevalence Returns at Gulfstream

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PREVALENCE FACES WINNERS AT GULFSTREAM

8th-GP, $52K, Opt. Clm. ($75K), 3yo, 1m, 4:44p.m.

'TDN Rising Star' PREVALENCE (Medaglia d'Oro) looks to make good on his ultra-impressive debut as he takes on winners for the first time Thursday. The Godolphin homebred romped by 8 1/2 lengths against a strong field in his seven-panel unveiling here Jan. 23, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure. A half to GSW Estihdaaf (Arch) and SW Libreta (Girolamo), the bay is out of a full-sister to MGISW Better Lucky (Ghostzapper), who is a daughter of GSW Sahara Gold (Seeking the Gold). TJCIS PPs

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Stidham Shipping Mystic Guide To Dubai World Cup ‘With A Lot Of Confidence’

Known as a top-tier trainer in the U.S. for decades, Mike Stidham now, finally, takes his well-respected show on the road with his first starter outside North America, Godolphin's Mystic Guide. The winner of more than 2,100 races has brought the son of Ghostzapper along patiently, but a one-sided victory in February's $600,000 Razorback Handicap (G3) convinced him that a trip to the UAE for the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) is an obvious next step.

“We felt really confident that he had moved forward from last year, his 3-year-old year,” Stidham explained. “We could tell just by the way he was training and how he seemed mentally and physically. We felt we had him ready to go to Oaklawn Park and run a good race, but then we got there there was rain and a sea of slop on the track. You don't know for sure how they're going to handle a wet track like that, although his dam (multiple G1 winner) Music Note won a Grade 1 in the slop, so that gave us a little confidence. Then when you watch the race, you see he was four- and five-wide on the turns–you worry about that–but then he pulled away like he did in the stretch and earned a 108 Beyer (Speed Figure), which exceeded our expectations.

“Sometimes you worry, when a horse goes far past their top number, that there could be a good chance of a 'bounce,' but he's certainly come out great and he's looking fantastic,” the 48-time graded stakes-winning conditioner continued. “He's back here at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and will have a work here before we ship. I have no reason to believe he's going to regress, so we'll see how he handles the travelling. If all is well, we'll get an easy breeze over the track at Meydan.”

A well-made chestnut with a flashy blaze, the blue-blooded homebred is another in a long line of graded stakes performers brought along deliberately by the Stidham operation that is co-spearheaded by longtime assistant Hilary Pridham. The training yard has flourished with an impressive breadth of runners, including juveniles, older horses, sprinters, routers, dirt and turf runners. The highlight reel includes G1-winning fillies Sutra, Two Altazano, Her Emmynency and Zipessa, as well as G2/G3-winning older males Synchrony, Manzotti and Willcox Inn–but it is in the last few years, when teaming with Godolphin, that the bar has been raised.

As recent as last weekend, Godolphin, Stidham and jockey Luis Saez–Mystic Guide's expected pilot in Dubai–joined forces to bring home Micheline in the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs, the ninth graded stakes Stidham has won for HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Mystic Guide has earned two of those, including Saratoga's Jim Dandy (G2) in decisive style over Jesus' Team, whom he likely faces again in Dubai. That effort was part of a carefully crafted sophomore season for the three-time winner from seven starts (never worse than third).

“We've made the same types of decisions with him throughout his career,” Stidham said. “Through the whole of his 3-year-old year, we had temptations to run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after his big maiden win and then the postponed Kentucky Derby (G1). We never felt he was quite ready to win those races just yet. He was a step behind where he needed to be for us to feel confident, so we waited for 3-year-old races like the Peter Pan and the Jim Dandy. It was the right thing to do. You could see him gradually improving as the year went on.

“We decided to try him in a Grade 1 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he ran a great race to be second, improving again, but we felt like he wasn't quite where he needed to be to win the Breeders' Cup Classic,” he continued. “We just did what was right for him and never forced him into any spot. We gave him a break, but he never left the track, and we were able to fresh him over the winter. Now we're reaping the rewards of doing that.”

A charismatic type who is loved around the Stidham barn, Mystic Guide enters the 10-furlong (2000m) contest on March 27 as a favorite of tipsters, as well.

“He's straight-forward and is an easy-galloping horse on the track,” Stidham continued. “He can be a little aggressive around the barn, but he's a really intelligent horse. I have had a lot of really great older turf horses, but I haven't had an older dirt handicap horse like him, so it's a lot of fun for me.”

Stidham's relationship with Godolphin is part of the recent expansion and resulting success the 'Boys in Blue' have had in America, including 2020 champion Essential Quality with Brad Cox and once-beaten star Maxfield with Brendan Walsh. Stidham, like many of the trainers working for the operation, is justifiably hopeful for an even brighter future.

“It's been an unbelievable time,” he explained. “To have horses like Mystic Guide, his half-brother Gershwin, Micheline, (G2 Del Mar Derby winner) Pixelate and Proxy, who could be a (Kentucky) Derby horse–it's a lot of really amazing things going on right now. I have to pinch myself, sometimes, because I've been in the business 45 years and watched these horses with other trainers. For me to actually have a couple is pretty outstanding.

“When we get our 2-year-olds in April, we may get 15 or 20 of them, and you immediately see the stallion power with sires like Hard Spun, Tapit, Curlin, Medaglia d'Oro and others that are coupled with mares like Panty Raid (G1-winning dam of Micheline) and Music Note. It's only a matter of time before the pedigrees line up. I really want to thank and congratulate Jimmy Bell and Dan Pride at Godolphin for doing a fantastic job diversifying things and spreading these horses throughout the country with all these trainers.”

First things first, as Stidham is doing anything but resting on his laurels. The 18% lifetime conditioner is fixated on his first global success when he starts Mystic Guide against a field that likely includes Jesus' Team, as well as G1 Champions Cup winner Chuwa Wizard, multiple graded stakes winner Sleepy Eyes Todd and UAE stars Salute the Soldier and Military Law.

“We're going there with a lot of confidence,” Stidham concluded. “I think the track will suit him and one of his best races was going a mile and a quarter. From what I've seen watching previous Dubai World Cups, it looks like you don't want to be too far back and he's a tactical horse. He can be laying in a forward-type of position at that distance and we know he can get the distance. With all those things included, I'm very optimistic about our chances.”

Luck permitting, Mystic Guide and the remainder of the American DWC contingent are expected to arrive in Dubai on March 17, St Patrick's Day. Stidham and Pridham will join soon after to oversee final preparations.

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Micheline Scores First Graded Triumph In Hillsborough Stakes

Making her first starting since a second-place finish to Harvey's Lil Goil in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland last Oct. 10, Godolphin LLC's homebred Micheline recorded her first graded stakes victory in Saturday's Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Fla.

Ridden for the first time by Luis Saez and trained by Michael Stidham, the 4-year-old filly by Bernardini out of the multiple G1 winning Include mare Panty Raid, was clocked in 1:47.19 for 1 1/8 miles on firm turf. She paid $11.20 for the victory.

Morning Molly finished second, with New York Girl third and La Signore and Miss Teheran dead-heating for fourth in the field of 10. Magic Attitude, the 3-1 favorite, breaking from the inside post, had some early traffic troubles, didn't get untracked until late and was never a factor.

Myhartblongstodady went to the front under Daniel Centeno, setting fractions of :24.23, :48.80 and 1:12.41 for the first six furlongs. Morning Molly raced in second, with Micheline, who broke from the outside post position, just behind the top pair and in the clear to the outside.

Approaching the stretch, Morning Molly turned up the heat on the front runner, but Saez and Micheline had them both measured, swinging to the outside and moving to the lead in the stretch. Passing the mile marker in 1:35.74, they cruised to the victory, Micheline's fifth in 13 starts.

“That was the spot I was trying to get, and we got lucky,” said Saez. “She broke good and we were right there. At the half-mile pole, when I started asking her, she started to pick it up, and when we got to the straight everything was about battling, and she did that pretty well. She gave me her kick and it was super. Watching her replays, I knew she could win this race, and it's great when everything comes together so well.”

Micheline broke her maiden in Monmouth Park's Sorority Stakes at 2 in 2019, adding a late December allowance victory at Tampa Bay Downs. As a 3-year-old she won Gulfstream's Honey Ryder and the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs.

“She is definitely a fighter,” Stidham's assistant, Ben Trask, said after the Hillsborough. “She is kind of a silly filly – she's a bad stall walker, so she lives in a little tent behind the barn. She is definitely a unique filly with a lot of talent. I was a little concerned with the outside post and whether she would overcome it. Luis put her in a great spot the whole time and when he called on her, she was there.”

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Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Winner Outstrip To Stand In Brazil

Outstrip, the winner of the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, has been purchased by a group of 29 Brazilian breeders to stand in that country, the South American publication Turf Diario reports.

The 10-year-old son Exceed and Excel had previously stood his entire career at Darley's Dalham Hall Stud in England, where his first foals are 4-year-olds of 2021.

Outstrip has sired 41 winners from three crops of racing age, with progeny earnings of $1,413,960.

His leading runners include Outburst, the winner of last year's Grade 3 Florida Oaks, French Group 2 winner Gold Trip, Greek Derby winner Gunmetal Jack, and Swiss champion Justin.

During his own on-track career, Outstrip won three of 11 starts for earnings of $826,800. He made his mark early as a 2-year-old, winning a Group 2 in England before traveling stateside to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita Park in what would be his only U.S. start.

Outstrip raced for two more seasons, one in the U.K. and the other in the UAE, with his best effort being a third in the G1 St. James's Palace Stakes during the Royal Ascot meet.

The British-born Outstrip is out of the Grade 1-winning El Prado mare Asi Siempre.

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