The Week In Review: A Weekend Report Card

The next best thing to the Breeders' Cup is a weekend filled with Breeders' Cup preps. That was the story last week as 31 graded stakes races were contested, many of them races that would help shape the fields for the Breeders' Cup races. Who were the big winners? Who were the big losers? Here's our reports card:

Up to the Mark: A+

It had been a depressing year for North American-based turf horses, who lost race after race to European shippers, including some whose credentials were rather modest. Saturday's GI Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland looked like it might be a case of more of the same as the favorite was the Charles Appleby-trained Master of The Seas (Dubawi {Ire}), who was coming off an impressive in the GI Woodbine Mile S. But in Up to the Mark (Not This Time), he was facing the best turf horse in the U.S. Had he been able to beat him handily that would have reaffirmed the message that the European turf horses are light years ahead of the ones based in the U.S. and that the Breeders' Cup turf races would certainly be dominated by shippers from the other side of the Atlantic. It was hardly a dominant performance as Up to the Mark beat Master of The Seas by a nose, but it showed that our very best turf horses can compete with Europe's best. This was the third straight Grade I win for Up to the Mark. If the GI Breeders' Cup Classic is won by an outsider and if Up to the Mark wins his Breeders' Cup race he could be Horse of the Year.

Muth: A

Muth (Good Magic), a $2 million purchase at the OBS March sale, didn't beat the toughest group of horses in Saturday's GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita, but the way he pulled off the victory was impressive and bodes well for his future. In his first two starts, he looked a lot like a precocious, fast horse who would fit best in sprint races. In the mile-and-a-sixteenth American Pharoah, he was relaxed and settled into fourth before launching his bid at the top of the stretch. If Muth is that good, how good is his stablemate, Prince of Monaco (Speightstown)? He beat him decisively when winning the GIII Best Pal S by 4 1/4 lengths.

Idiomatic: A

Yes, Idiomatic (Curlin) had a dream trip in the GI Spinster S. Sunday at Keeneland. And that's the only reason she doesn't get an A +. Florent Geroux managed to get her to the front by 1 1/2 lengths after an opening quarter was run in 24.49. At that point, the race was already over. The lineup that awaits her in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff is tough one, but after the Spinster Idiomatic has to be considered the one to beat. She's won four straight, all stakes and two Grade I's in a row.

Gina Romantica: A-

All that stands between an undefeated season for the Chad Brown-trained In Italian (GB) is Chad Brown. For the second straight race, In Italian went off as a heavy favorite in the GI First Lady S. at Keeneland only to be beaten by a stablemate. This time it was Gina Romantica (Into Mischief). She nailed In Italian by a head at the wire, not an easy thing to do considering that In Italian got the trip she needs, controlling the pace. This race came out of nowhere for Gina Romantica, who increased her best lifetime Beyer by 13 points, from a 92 to a 105. But if she can duplicate the effort in the Breeders' Cup she'll be a horse to watch.

War Like Goddess: A-

What a cool horse. War Like Goddess (English Channel) beat the boys for the second straight year in the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Aqueduct. She RNA'd for $1,000 at the 2018 Keeneland September sale before selling for $30,000 the following year at OBS June. She's now earned $2,495,184 and has won three Grade I's. The competition will get tougher in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, but this was one of the better efforts of her career and showed that she's still at the top of her game at age 6 and more than capable of beating males.

Didia: A-

Few horses have flown under the radar more this year than Didia (Arg) (Orpen). Since arriving here last year from Argentina, she had been beaten only once in five tries and that was when she couldn't catch a loose on the lead Marketsegmentation (American Pharaoh) in the GI New York S. Trainer Ignacio Correas IV gave her four months off after that race and brought her back for Saturday's GII Rodeo Drive S. at Santa Anita. Facing a tough foe in the 3-year-old Anisette (GB) (Atwaad {Ire}), who was undefeated in three U.S. starts, she proved to be clearly the better of the two, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Correas may not be a household name in the U.S., but he proved what he can do when he won the 2019 GI Breeders' Cup Distaff with Blue Prize (Arg) (Pure Prize).

Locked: B+

At first glance, the win by Locked Gun Runner) in the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland doesn't look that impressive. As the 3-5 favorite, he won by just a half length and had to survive a stiff stretch battle from The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso). His Beyer was an 87, a drop off of nine points from his last race. But, breaking from the eight post, he was wide on both turns and lost a ton of ground while The Wine Steward was never more than two paths off the rail.

Timberlake: B+

Brad Cox had Timberlake (Into Mischief) entered in both the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct and the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and it certainly looks like he made the right call sending the 2-year-old to New York for the Champagne. He was last seen running second in the GI Hopeful S., where the winner, Nutella Fella (Runhappy) got a Beyer figure of only 72. But with Timberlake winning the Champagne by 4 1/4 lengths, that race looks a lot better now. Timberlake probably won't be any better than the fouth choice in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he proved in the Champagne that he belongs.

Nations Pride: B

No, Charles Appleby isn't perfect. The first three horses he ran over the weekend all got beat. That meant that Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilio {Ire]) was his last hope. Sent to Woodbine for Sunday's GI Canadian International S., he came through with a 2 1/4-length win as the 2-5 favorite. He'll now return to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, where he finished fifth last year at the 5-2 favorite. Didn't beat much in this race, thus his grade.

In Italian: C

In Italian didn't run terribly in the First Lady when beaten by stablemate Gina Romantica, but that's two straight races she has lost as an odds favorite in which she had no real excuse.

Nest: C-

When Nest (Curlin) kicked off her 2023 campaign with a 2 1/4-length win over Clairiere in the GII Shuvee S. it looked like she was well on her way to a possible Eclipse Award. Nothing has gone right since. She was third in the GI Personal Ensign S. and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Spinster in which she was beaten 11 /4 lengths. A terrific filly who, for whatever reason, didn't have it in her last two starts.

Rebel's Romance: D

Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf, but nothing has gone right for him since. He returned to New York for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic after clipping heels and losing his rider in the GII Bowling Green S. Sent off at 1-2, he showed nothing, finishing fourth.

Fierceness: Incomplete

Considered one of the most impressive maiden winners at Saratoga, where he won by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, Fierceness (City of Light) was pounded down to 1-2 in the Champagne. This time he didn't show up, losing by 20 1/4 lengths. He had all sorts of problems at the start, where be lunged and then got bumped, and maybe that explains the poor performance. We'll probably see him next at Gulfstream, where he'll have every chance to regroup.

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Gina Romantica Leads Home Brant, Brown 1-2 in First Lady

Easily the least-preferred of a Chad Brown-trained threesome in Saturday's GI First Lady S. at Keeneland and the lesser-fancied of two runners in the race for owner Peter Brant, Gina Romantica (Into Mischief) came with a stinging final-furlong flurry and ran down her commonly owned stablemate and heavily favored defending champion 'TDN Rising Star' In Italian (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) to post an 11-1 upset.

Hammered into 2-5 favoritism, In Italian made the lead and while the early fractions of :23.40 and :46.80 weren't overly taxing, the 5-year-old was allowed no breathers, as her GI Diana S.-winning stable companion Whitebeam (GB) (Caravaggio) led a host of pursuers that followed closely behind. In Italian still held the call after six furlongs in 1:10.32–having gone the third quarter-mile in :23.32–and looked like she would be tough to reel in, but Gina Romantica, who'd sat a rail-skimming journey and was quietly ridden by Tyler Gaffalione from just behind midfield, advanced inside on the turn and was steered off heels into the stretch. In Italian was still going great guns up front and was anything but stopping, but Gina Romantica flashed home to prevail in a driving finish. Former claimer Evvie Jets (Twirling Candy) picked up some valuable Grade I black-type in third.

“She broke good. She traveled so great throughout,” Gaffalione said. “I didn't have to take too much of a hold. She was very comfortable where she was. Coming into the stretch, once I found room toward the outside, she really exploded–finished her job really well.”

A $1.05-million Keeneland September yearling purchase, Gina Romantica was joining Vacare (Lear Fan) as winners of Keeneland's signature race for 3-year-old fillies–the GI QE II Challenge Cup–and the First Lady in consecutive seasons. Dayatthespa (City Zip), the first of Brown's now seven First Lady winners, won the QE II in 2012 and the First Lady two years later. Brown has trained the First Lady winner each year since 2018. Gina Romantica was having her third start this season, having finished fourth to stablemate Consumer Spending (More Than Ready) in the GIII Eatontown S. June 17 ahead of a runner-up effort in the GI Beverly D. S. at Colonial Aug. 12.

Pedigree Notes:

Just $6,000 was required for Machmer Hall to acquire the newly turned 3-year-old filly Special Me at the 2009 Keeneland January Sale and it has been almost nothing but blue skies since.

Stonetastic was the mare's second foal and initial success story, winning a pair of Grade IIs while finishing runner-up in the GI Humana Distaff S. and earning north of $856,000. Stonetastic's Gun Runner filly of 2021, now named Gifted Runner, fetched $925,000 at Keeneland September in 2022, while the Brogdens acquired her 4-year-old daughter Stonetonic (Candy Ride {Arg}) for $400,000 in foal to Yaupon at KEENOV last fall.

Special Me's foal of 2013, 'TDN Rising Star' Gift Box, became the first Grade I winner out of Special Me when annexing the Santa Anita H. as a 6-year-old in 2019. She is also the dam of Special Forces, a multiple graded winner on the Woodbine synthetic track. The yearling full-brother to Gina Romantica sold to M.V. Magnier for $1.2 million at Keeneland September last month and Special Me produced a full-sister to Gift Box this past Mar. 27 before helping to comprise the first book of mares bred to Flightline.

 

Saturday, Keeneland
FIRST LADY S. PRESENTED BY UK HEALTHCARE-GI, $729,500, Keeneland, 10-7, 3yo/up, f/m, 1mT, 1:33.70, fm.
1–GINA ROMANTICA, 124, f, 4, by Into Mischief
          1st Dam: Special Me, by Unbridled's Song
          2nd Dam: Delta Danielle, by Lord Avie
          3rd Dam: Domasco Danielle, by Same Direction
($1,025,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Peter M. Brant; B-Machmer Hall, Carrie Brogden & Craig Brogden (KY); T-Chad C. Brown; J-Tyler Gaffalione. $447,563. Lifetime Record: 10-5-2-0, $1,108,603. *1/2 to Special Forces (Candy Ride {Arg}), MGSW-Can, SP-USA, $452,383; 1/2 to Gift Box (Twirling Candy), GISW, $1,127,060; 1/2 to Stonetastic (Mizzen Mast), MGSW & GISP, $856,062. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–In Italian (GB), 124, m, 5, by Dubawi (Ire)
          1st Dam: Florentina (Aus) (GSW-Aus, $250,958), by Redoute's Choice (Aus)
          2nd Dam: Celebria (Aus), by Peintre Celebre
          3rd Dam: Twyla (Aus), by Danehill
'TDN Rising Star'. (475,000gns Ylg '19 TATOCT). O-Peter M. Brant; B-Fairway Thoroughbreds (GB); T-Chad C. Brown. $125,125.
3–Evvie Jets, 124, m, 5, by Twirling Candy
          1st Dam: Natchez Trace, by Consolidator
          2nd Dam: Crystal Cream, by Secretariat
          3rd Dam: Clear Copy, by Copy Chief
1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($75,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-The Estate of Robert J. Amendola; B-Farfellow Farms Ltd. (KY); T-Mertkan Kantarmaci. $72,188.
Margins: HD, 3 3/4, HF. Odds: 11.51, 0.45, 20.34.
Also Ran: Whitebeam (GB), Gam's Mission, Jumbly (GB), New Year's Eve, Thisnameisokay.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Saturday Preview: Brown Returnees Feature On Haskell Preview Day

While the $150,000 Pegasus S. (more on that below) serves as the local feeder into next month's GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., the graded events on Saturday's Haskell Preview Day at Monmouth Park are set to mark the seasonal debuts for a pair of Chad Brown-conditioned Grade I winners from last term as well as a 'TDN Rising Star' from the same shedrow looking to kick start what connections hope will be a productive 4-year-old campaign.

Peter Brant's Gina Romantica (Into Mischief) makes her first appearance since taking out the GI Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland last fall. The $1.025-million KEESEP yearling flashed ample ability on dirt, winning twice from four starts, but was reinvented as a grass filly in the second half of 2022. Upset winner of the Riskaverse S. at Saratoga when making her turf debut last August, she was a pace-compromised second in the GIII Pebbles S. before accounting for stablemate McKulick (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the QE II. Florent Geroux replaces fellow Frenchman Flavien Prat in the boot.

Tribhuvan (Fr) (Toronado {Ire}) returns to the site of his victory in the 2021 GI United Nations S. and can give Brown a remarkable seventh consecutive victory in the GIII Monmouth S. The all-the-way winner of last year's GI Manhattan S. was a pacesetting fourth behind stable companion Adhamo (Ire) (Intello {Ger} in defense of his United Nations title and makes his first trip to the races since a weakening sixth in the GI Sword Dancer Invitational S. at Saratoga last August. Among the competition is Never Explain (Street Sense), who annexed the GIII Dinner Party S. at Old Hilltop May 18.

Sandwiched between those races is the GIII Salvator Mile S. Artorius (Arrogate), who carries the famed Juddmonte silks, progressed rapidly at three, winning his maiden and 'Rising Star' honors at second asking before streaking away to win the restricted Curlin S. at Saratoga last July. Allowed to take his chance in the GI Runhappy Travers S., he was a not-quite-ready-for-prime-time sixth to Epicenter (Not This Time) and was a latest fourth in the seven-furlong Perryville S. at Keeneland last fall.

Quality Over Quantity in Bed o' Roses

It would be easy to say the connections of the four others entered for Saturday's GII Bed O'Roses S. at Belmont Park were dismayed when champion Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper) was entered Wednesday, but given the strength of the competition, the reverse might also be true.

Last year's GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint heroine was the victim of some race riding and was forced to settle for third in the GI Derby City Distaff S. at Churchill Downs May 6, so revenge will be on their mind, but it may not be straight-forward. Derby City runner-up Wicked Halo (Gun Runner) lines up a few doors down, while the in-form Beguine (Gun Runner) and GII Vagrancy S. victress Caramel Swirl (Union Rags) add to the intrigue.

Pegasus, Monomoy Girl Lure Big Names

The Pegasus has attracted a field of eight mostly exposed 3-year-olds, topped by a pair of shippers from the barn of Todd Pletcher. Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) looks a standout and is unlikely to jump at anything close to his 8-5 morning line, having wired the field in the GII Louisiana Derby before wilting to 14th after attending the sizzling pace in the GI Kentucky Derby six weeks ago. Classic Catch (Classic Empire) was a wide-trip and creditable fifth in the GII Wood Memorial S. two back, and his fourth in the GIII Peter Pan S. looks considerably better given what Arcangelo (Arrogate) did around Big Sandy last weekend.

Saturday's relocated Monomoy Girl S. also looks a two-horse affair on paper. Wet Paint (Blame), who made a belated run to be fourth behind the commonly owned 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) when favored in the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks May 5, squares off against Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief), who failed to make the Oaks cut but hinted at a return to form with a runner-up effort in the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. at Pimlico May 19.

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‘Nobody Has a Crystal Ball’

Probably you know Carrie Brogden. The way her ideas, opinions, memories, emotions come tumbling out, one on top of the other. And how even after a few minutes she will have shared way too much of this torrent of vitality for the narrow channel of paragraphs that follows here.

Except you don't know Carrie Brogden. For instance, did you know that she's only here because of Einstein? Seriously. We'll come to that, and to the Beanie Babies, too, who have a more immediate role in her story.

But how are we truly supposed to know any human being, when even our collective obsession with an animal of largely simple needs still leaves us groping for answers?

Okay, so the latest Machmer Hall graduate to hit the big time, Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winner Gina Romantica, is one of those that makes us feel that we might indeed be working to some coherent, viable principles. She's by Into Mischief, she cost a million bucks, so of course she's a Grade I filly.

But then she only cost that much because her mother Special Me (Unbridled's Song) had already produced millionaire Gift Box and graded stakes winners Stonetastic (Mizzen Mast) and Special Forces (Candy Ride {Arg})–and Brogden and her husband Craig found that mare, all 14.2 hands of her, for $6,000 at the Keeneland January Sale of 2009.

“Nobody has a crystal ball,” Brogden says. “We bred another Into Mischief, a colt we sold for $500,000, and he was a morning glory. He did not give a crap about running. The only Into Mischief I ever had that had no heart to run, it's such an unusual thing for him.”

Rather more characteristically, Brogden made it her business to salvage the horse from the wreckage of expectation.

“He was running in cheap claimers, and being claimed and claimed and claimed,” she says. “So I called the last trainer and bought him privately, and we placed him. And of course, he shipped in and, goddamn, he is breathtaking. But I'll tell you one thing, he's a lot happier being a show hunter, because he's happy going slow. And that's something I cannot predict. None of us can.”

But that cuts both ways. If all that glisters is not gold, then nor should we ignore diamonds in the rough.

“I've had so many great horses whose X-rays do not match,” Brogden says. “Just recently, I had a super-nice racehorse failed for a private sale, because 'issue' was found on an X-ray–from a cracked shin as a young horse, before his racing career, long healed. He's running, he's sound, he's working awesome, he's just won a couple of stakes. I mean, Flat Out (Flatter) had a big old defect in his front sesamoid. And he won, what, $6 million? And the people that bought him did so because they took the consignor's word [i.e. Meg Levy of Bluewater] that this was a nice, sound horse–which, obviously, he proved to be.”

She cites a maxim of Florida horseman Albert Davis: “Never forget that vets pass as many horses that can't run as they fail horses that can.”

Without that crystal ball, then, all we can do is try to breed and raise horses for a competitive outlook.

“Management makes you, management breaks you,” says Brogden. “I mean, ours don't come in. Sleet, rain, thunderstorms, they're out there learning how to face adversity. Now, if they're sick or injured, we take care of them. But if they're healthy, horses need to be outside. As Chris Baker once told me, 'Barns were created for people.'

“Year after year, it's the same breeders raising the racehorses. There's a big reason why those Ashview horses ran one-two in the Belmont. Because they keep them out in the fields, bumping around. We don't separate any of our colts until we go to prep. That's why I'm really proud of my horses a lot of times: in a crowded situation, coming up the rail, they won't be afraid.”

Brogden works from flesh and blood, not paper formulae. She comes from a family of mathematicians, took statistics in college herself, and is dismayed by the influence of flimsy data on mating strategies. All she wants is to breed a big, beautiful athlete, and that should be challenge enough. If you breed by numbers, and end up with a little rat, good luck.

Of course, she absolutely believes in pedigree; and why wouldn't you, when you have one like hers? Ever wondered where Machmer Hall gets its name? Step forward great-grandfather Dean William L. Machmer of the University of Massachusetts. Opposite him, on the maternal branch of her family tree, stands an equally distinguished figure: Guido Fubini, who fled Italy as Mussolini began to accelerate persecution of the Jews.

“If you ever saw the movie A Beautiful Mind, with Russell Crowe, the theorem on the blackboard, that he's trying to work through, is the Fubini Theorem,” Brogden explains. “Einstein, believe or not, helped my great-great-grandfather get a job in Princeton. They didn't tell their anyone, their housekeepers, nobody, they just went across the Swiss border on a day trip, and my grandmother had sewn the jewelry into her fur coat.”

One day Guido's son found a young woman in the lobby of their New York apartment block struggling to buckle a ski boot. He offered to assist her, and that's how Brogden's grandfather Eugene met her grandmother Betty. Eugene went on to become Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations.

Brogden has a vivid sense of her Italian ancestry. “Oh, definitely, those genes flow very freely through me,” she says with a laugh. “I love Italians because we wear our hearts on our sleeves, we put it all out there. We're flamboyant and ridiculous and over-the-top. I remember when my grandfather would blow his top, yelling and screaming. And then we'd sit down for dinner two minutes later, and he'd be like, 'Can you please pass the butter?' And that's kind of how I am, too. My poor kids! I have three great teenagers, all super-easy and responsible. Thank God they're not like I was!”

It would be wrong, however, to conflate this candid, demonstrative nature with her status as a relative pioneer, in a walk of life where women have long been underrepresented.

“Sometimes you do have to remember that you're dealing with a lot of men, and that often they're not so emotional,” she says with a shrug. “And that's okay. That's the yin and yang of it. My partner Andrew Cary always used to be like, 'Be careful, make sure what you're saying is what you mean–not the emotional, flippant Carrie!' And the closest men around me are all very smart, level-headed, even-keel: they do help to calm my over-the-top, passionate nature. But men are from Mars, women from Venus? I think that that is definitely changing. I don't think the young girls coming in will face the same stuff. I mean, women weren't even allowed in the breeding shed until the '80s. So, a lot of things have changed.”

Besides all her colorful antecedents, more immediately Brogden was also born to horses. Her parents were both veterinarians, ran an animal hospital in Virginia before taking on a farm in Ocala for a while. After they separated, Brogden's mother brought the kids back to Virginia to live with their Fubini grandparents. A traumatic experience, at an impressionable age, but the memory of her cherished grandmother would later be honored by Baby Betty (El Corredor) among Machmer Hall's foundation mares.

Brogden had been riding and showing through her girlhood, but parked the horses for psychology at college, and–ah yes, for the Beanie Babies. Her mom had launched a pet-themed gift store, and landed on a bewildering craze for these stuffed animals. Each cost only $2.50 wholesale but they were selling them online for $75 as fast as they could pack them up.

Their house was full of boxes, literally floor to ceiling. They rode the hectic wave, were glad when it finished, and Brogden's mom played up some of the winnings on a couple of mares, including an unraced daughter of Affirmed for just $7,700 deep in the Keeneland November Sale. And her half-brothers by His Majesty turned out to be GI Arlington Million winner Tight Spot and GI Hollywood Futurity winner Valiant Nature.

“So, she got really lucky there, and that was the start of it,” says Brogden, who now slipstreamed back to her first love, the horse; and met another one on the way, in the Australian chap she met one night in McCarthy's in Lexington.

But Brogden's debt to her mother Sandy Willwerth is not just a career path. All four siblings, growing up, were constantly challenged to raise the bar. And, sure enough, all graduated college to make an impact: one brother is a high-flying venture capitalist in California, another owns a construction company back in Virginia, their other sister has carved out a similar niche with show hunters to the one Machmer Hall has established with Thoroughbreds.

The program took root in Virginia but the superior land soon summoned them to Kentucky, where they started in 2001 with a parcel of 105 acres, cattle-grazed but auspiciously sited between Stone Farm and Claiborne. Craig had been working under the late Dr. Phil McCarthy, the pioneering reproductive veterinarian, at Watercress Farm.

“And a lot of our philosophy comes from Dr. McCarthy,” Brogden acknowledges. “Let horses be horses. Don't hothouse them. The only time they have to look spectacular is the day they walk onto the sales grounds.”

She says people give her grief over her support of HISA. It's not as though she won't give antibiotics to a horse with an infection; or apply shockwave to a hematoma.

“But I don't go through my stable and inject hocks and stifles on 15 different yearlings,” she says. “I think we've injected one yearling's ankle in two years. Any treatment we give is warranted and needed. I don't want to do blanket treatments, which I think is really what happened with Lasix. I know certain people won't like that I feel this way. But ultimately it's because I want our industry and everyone in it to be more successful.

“I'm not trying to talk down anyone else's product. I'm trying to raise the best horse I can. And I am not money-driven. I am success-motivated. The buyers know, if I know of a legitimate problem with a certain horse, I will absolutely tell them. I mean, we swim all our yearlings. I have a very good idea of who can and cannot breathe! The last thing in the world I want is somebody to buy a bad horse from me, especially for a lot of money.”

She would rather write off a sale and earn repeat business, just as she herself goes back to the same, trusted sources: whether Unbridled's Song mares, or Fox Hill mares, or mares bought by Ron Ellis for Spendthrift. Those have all added up, mind: Machmer Hall is now up to 560 acres, and 115 mares–the most they've ever had, and some will be traded out as they want no more than 85 foaling. Plus, don't forget 40 to 50 2-year-olds, spread among different consignors, and others retained for the track.

“I'm just a horse addict,” Brogden apologizes. “But they help you learn every year. I mean, one thing I've definitely learned through X-ray: don't start prep too early. They only need 60 days, otherwise you're going to create sesamoiditis. You watch that show, The Biggest Loser, where all these butterball people start a program of exercise and eating right, and all of a sudden most of them, wow, they look amazing. I think that prep is really our way of seeing the true nature of the athlete. When my parents had the farm down in Florida, you just kept them in the stall, kept their coats, and everything sold off pedigree. But all that's changing.”

The one constant, of course, remains the need for luck. Thirteen years ago this week Brogden and her partners were underbidders on the weanling colt that became Prime Cut (Bernstein), and instead settled for his dam for $4,500 from the back ring. If Life Happened (Stravinsky) could produce such a gorgeous son, then never mind if she was barren and reputed to be savage.

They tried to return her to Bernstein, but he had three mares confirmed that day so Brogden called round. Here was this big, stout, beautiful mare that needed to be bred today–and Spendthrift offered a new stallion called Into Mischief.

That mating produced Vyjack and next time, getting back in to Bernstein, they came up with Tepin herself. Brogden gratefully salvaged Prime Cut for $1,000 when he was discarded through a sale at the end of his racing days. Their dam, after all, couldn't have been better named. In a game of such uneven fortunes, in the end life just happens. No crystal ball.

“But that's the greatest thing about it,” Brogden says eagerly. “The fateful part that we can't control. I think that that's why so many men and women that are super-successful in other businesses come here–because they can't put a box around it. If they could, Sackatoga Stables would never have won the Derby with Funny Cide, you'd never have had the school bus and everything. I mean, that's what dreams are made of, right?

“You can have the best mare, the best stallion, and it's a beautiful physical mating. Everything works on paper. And then you have a nocardioform placentitis foal, 75lbs. And that's it, you're not going to have a racehorse. But ultimately, the fact that we can't really know is the greatest thing about it. Because the most valuable commodity of all is hope.”

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