We're inside the 11-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but still a month away from the important leap to races at nine furlongs or longer. Although there was no major upheaval within the rankings this week, we do have a new No 1. The subplots thicken as the cadence quickens.
1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.
Make no mistake: Newly top-ranked Classic Causeway didn't “inherit” the No. 1 rating on this list because the former kingpin, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), ran second over the weekend. Rather, Classic Causeway carved out his own spot atop the totem pole with a grace-under-pressure performance in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Keen to make the pace, this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper ripped through a :22.66 opening quarter, then toned down the middle fractions while being ceaselessly hounded but always exhibiting confident body language. Classic Causeway kicked for home with three legitimate threats right behind him, but spurted away under urging before unleashing a “Wow!” gear in deep stretch that punctuated a visually impressive final sixteenth in :5.98 (the only sub-six-seconds clocking among preps at 1 1/16 miles this season). The GII Tampa Bay Derby is next. Note that the Nos. 1 and 2 colts within the Top 12 exit the two most competitive individual preps we've witnessed so far in '22 (the Davis S. and the GII Risen Star S.), and they also hail from the key juvenile race from '21, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which has now produced three next-out graded stakes winners and one runner-up.
2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.
'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy's hard-charging second after enduring traffic in the Risen Star was respectable enough off a 12-week layoff to keep him in the upper tier of the Top 12. This son of Runhappy broke adeptly, settled capably when asked to rate, then secured a spot third from last entering the backstretch. From about the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths marker he was mildly pocketed but still patiently handled by Corey Lanerie. Midway through the turn it looked as if Lanerie was about to make his move outside, but he had to hit pause on that plan when the onrushing Zandon (Upstart) claimed the same path. Turning for home, Smile Happy was walled up with too much work to do, yet when Lanerie aimed for inside passage, his colt responded to rousing. But that burst of energy three-sixteenths out put Smile Happy on the heels of a caving Pappacap (Gun Runner), so Lanerie had to shift back outside before splitting horses and clearly gaining second at the eighth pole behind a good-as-gone winner. It only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of the geared-down Epicenter (Not This Time), and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his runner-up effort adds to an upward-trending three-race arc.
3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.
Trainer Bob Baffert texted “no plans yet” several days ago when asked for a next-race update. But history can provide a good guess as to where 'TDN Rising Star' Messier will show up following his romp in the GIII Bob Lewis S. on Feb. 5. Prior to Messier's win, Baffert had won the Lewis (or its predecessor, the Santa Catalina S.) nine times. Seven of those Lewis winners next started in the GII San Felipe S. in early March. Last year, Medina Spirit won the Lewis, then ran second in both the San Felipe and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby before crossing the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile won all three of those Santa Anita preps, then ran second in Louisville. Those efforts stand as the best two Derby performances by Baffert horses who took the Lewis-San Felipe route.
When a horse outclasses only four others by 15 lengths like Messier did in the Lewis, it can be difficult to discern how strong the effort really was. But make no mistake about the major-league 103 Beyer Speed Figure this $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker unleashed–the only triple-digit Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022.
This colt, like all Baffert trainees, remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent.
4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.
'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel will go next in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and if all goes according to trainer Todd Pletcher's plan, the GI Curlin Florida Derby will be his final start before Louisville. This physically imposing son of More Than Ready has paired a 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile with an 89-Beyer front-running allowance score over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. Although the field for the Fountain of Youth is still taking shape, right now only one other Top 12 contender is listed as a likely entrant. That means Emmanuel will almost certainly start as the favorite in a race that's recently been brutal to the chalk: Fountain of Youth faves have gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, and have managed just three wins from the last 15 (including one demotion via disqualification). Still, with 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream starting so close to the first turn and finishing in a short-stretch configuration, you'd have to think Emmanuel's pure speed and demonstrated fondness for the surface might erase any concerns about the negative trend for faves.
5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.
Pletcher recently told TDN that “the [GII] Wood Memorial [S.] is the 100-point race that we've got him targeted for since he won the [GII] Remsen [S.] at Aqueduct.” The only question, he explained, is whether or not this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo will get another start between now and that Apr. 9 New York race.
In the GIII Holy Bull S., Mo Donegal was a beaten favorite while suffering the most glaring adverse trip among top Derby contenders so far this season. Riding a closer by nature, Irad Ortiz Jr. wasted a lot of lateral movement going from the rail on the first turn to the five path on the backstretch, only to attempt another blocked inside bid on the far turn before being directing his colt widest of all for a belated drive to the wire.
As Pletcher termed it, “everything kind of unfolded the wrong way for him and it took him a while to get out in the clear and able to make his run. It was the kind of effort we were hoping for, even though it wasn't the result we were wanting.”
6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.
Zandon's trip to New Orleans for a prep race was exactly that–a useful preparatory effort for an overall goal that is 2 1/2 months down the road. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart broke in the air and was relegated to last in the early stages while tugging at the bit. He settled four off the rail for the back straight, then uncorked a methodical march while widest on the far turn that built momentum into a sustained three-furlong run. It appeared as if Zandon might have been losing steam at the sixteenth pole, but the colt re-engaged when he sensed a rival to his inside, digging in to win a head-bob for third.
Considering the shipping, racing under the lights, and having to square off against a much tougher crew, that's not a bad effort for a third career race. Zandon's Beyers are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93), and trainer Chad Brown told DRF that the Apr. 9 Blue Grass (recently reinstated as a Grade I), is the next likely target.
7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.
Epicenter knows his job is to go straight to the front and establish control, and he executed that task effectively in Saturday's Risen Star over nine furlongs. Jockey Joel Rosario (and everyone else) knew this $260,000 KEESEP colt had the race wrapped up after cresting the eighth pole, and Epicenter's 98 Beyer, which he garnered by cranking out even-tempoed splits of :23.79, :24.18, :24.28, :24.33 and :12.45, establishes this son of Not This Time as a legit Louisville contender.
But in fairness, Epicenter's no-mishap win has to be juxtaposed against the trip duress suffered by the two well-backed horses who chased him through the stretch. Would he have won if both Smile Happy and Zandon had gotten clean runs at him? We've already seen that Epicenter has the physical and mental fortitude to hold off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, like he did when second in the GIII Lecomte S. And had he not gotten pipped at the final jump by an out-of-the-clouds long shot in that January race, Epicenter would otherwise be riding a four-race win streak into the GII Louisiana Derby.
Epicenter | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir
8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.
Even though he's two-for-two, Early Voting's relatively high Top 12 ranking isn't based so much on what he's accomplished so far as what he might be able to deliver. He's a late developer who has demonstrated improved conditioning, confidence and mental seasoning with races under his belt. So when and at what distance will this $200,000 KEESEP buy peak? That's a question everyone who owns a son or daughter of leading first-crop-sire Gun Runner wants answered.
His Beyers don't tell us much: Early Voting's 76 and 78 are both below-par for elite-level Derby contenders. But those numbers were both earned over dull-ish winter surfaces at Aqueduct (although the Beyers are designed to adjust for the nature of the surface). This colt's 4 1/2-length wiring of the GIII Withers S. field earned black type, but his MSW score in a one-turn mile actually comes off as the more impressive try.
Favored at 4-5, Early Voting pressed outside in a three-way duel, cracked one rival with sustained pressure, sparred with the other before dispatching him on the far turn, then capably repulsed a fresh run from the stalking second choice who had built up winning momentum through the stretch.
9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Derby Points: N/A.
The three-for-three Newgrange headlines Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which this year is newly positioned as a late-February prep because of Oaklawn's earlier-than-usual Apr. 2 scheduling of the GI Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last two Rebels and eight of the previous 13. But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, he saddled beaten favorites in four straight runnings (counting split divisions in '19).
This $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be really pushed along on the far turn before finishing with interest to win the GIII Southwest S., and Baffert said afterward that jockey John Velazquez told him Newgrange might not have been handling the track. Since then, the connections of several Southwest also-rans have similarly described that day's surface as being cuppy and deep in the aftermath of very cold weather, which could explain why some runners didn't care for it, and why Newgrange only earned a one-point Beyer bump off his previous effort (88 to 89).
We've now seen him wire fields and win from off the pace, so Newgrange is tactically versatile; being able to run well despite not really liking the footing also shows he doesn't need everything his own way to win.
10) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Probable for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.
If Rattle N Roll goes Mar. 5 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., that will represent a 21-week layoff since his 81-Beyer GI Breeders' Futurity S. score. Over the last five years, trainer Ken McPeek has won at a 16% clip with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. If you drill down to look at only the subset of 3-year-old males within those parameters, he is two for 20. There are pluses and minuses to this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt's Grade I win last fall. On the pro side, he displayed a high level of comfort while racing covered up midpack before launching a prolonged winning bid three furlongs out, beating No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway in the process. On the con side, Rattle N Roll really only had to outrun stragglers over a short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles, and with the exception of Classic Causeway, not a single horse out of that Keeneland stakes has subsequently won a race.
11) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.
They say if you wait long enough, everything cycles back into vogue again. Way back on Sept. 18, Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill. He was then shelved, but this Constitution colt's two-for-two record was good enough to get him listed on January's first installment of the Top 12. He was a little bit behind in training and thus got leapfrogged in the rankings, but now with seven published breezes and three straight bullet workouts, his stock is rising again.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has this $265,000 KEEJAN and $420,000 KEESEP colt humming along under the radar in preparation for a likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby. His Iroquois win earned grittiness points because Major General overcame a bobble at the start before unwinding with an all-business move 3 1/2 furlongs out. He gamely traded bumps with the favorite in upper stretch, then still had enough gas late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.
12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.
Efficiency, athleticism and an affinity for the Gulfstream racing surface all play in White Abarrio's favor as he points for the Florida Derby. This speed-centric Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss to date was a credible third at Churchill behind heavy hitters Classic Causeway and Smile Happy. But similar to what was discussed in Epicenter's write-up, in terms of the bigger Derby picture, it's legit to question how much of White Abarrio's win in the Holy Bull S. was attributable to this colt's own prowess, or to him being able to sail clear on the front end while the top four favorites behind him all endured various forms of in-race adversity. Having said that, his 97 Beyer merits respect. Only two sophomores have run a better number this year: Messier's 103 and Epicenter's 98.
On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):
Belgrade (Hard Spun): Bought for $45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 last month at KEEJAN, this H. Graham Motion trainee is two-for-two with wins at Fair Grounds and Tampa, and could be the sleeper in the Tampa Bay Derby, a stakes that has been won by horses with odds of 8-1 or higher in each of the last four runnings.
Blackadder (Quality Road): Nice surge late from this $620,000 KEESEP colt to catch his Baffert stablemate napping in the late stages of the El Camino Real Derby.
Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Lecomte S. upsetter's form got shored up when the horse he caught at the wire, Epicenter, came back to wire the Risen Star S. Four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR) prepping for the Louisiana Derby.
Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two for Pletcher when a daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. Lots of options for a new graduate, but the Derby clock is ticking.
In Due Time (Not This Time): This three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) fired a bullet breeze last Friday off a 92-Beyer allowance win by open lengths.
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