Saudi Crown Punches Ticket to Saudi Cup in Louisiana

FMQ Stables' Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) bossed his five overmatched rivals from the front to take out Saturday's GIII Louisiana S. at the Fair Grounds, a perfect lead-up into the $20-million G1 Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh in five weeks' time .

Appearing for the first time since weakening to 10th behind the Saudi Cup-bound White Abarrio (Race Day) in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic 11 weeks back, the odds-on pop won the break from gate three and set the pace into the first turn as Tenacious S. winner Five Star General (Distorted Humor) applied token pressure from the outside. The well-backed Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Red Route One (Gun Runner) raced as a team, with defending champion Happy American (Runhappy) and Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) the back markers.

Saudi Crown galloped well within himself and under an easy Florent Geroux hold through a half-mile in a very manageable :47.93 and the French reinsman upped the tempo on the 2023 GI Pennsylvania Derby winner leaving the three-eighths marker. Firmly in front as they hit the long Fair Grounds stretch, Saudi Crown was shaken up a bit at the furlong grounds, but was taken in hand for the final 70 yards, strutting in a convincing winner. Red Route One rallied inside to beat Happy American out of second.

Winner of his first two starts over sprint trips, Saudi Crown was just touched off by Fort Bragg (Tapit) in the GIII Dwyer S. going Belmont's one-turn mile July 1 and took a similarly tough beat when just caught by Forte (Violence) trying a two-turn route for the first time in the July 29 GII Jim Dandy S. Never truly threatened in the slop at Parx Sept. 23, Saudi Crown was part of a strong early tempo in the Classic and faded from about halfway to finish better than 12 lengths off White Abarrio.

And now it is off to the Middle East, where Team Cox will be looking for Saudi Crown to atone for subpar big-race efforts from Knicks Go in 2021 and 2022 Louisiana S. winner Mandaloun.

Pedigree Notes:

One of three black-type winners for his Kentucky Derby-winning sire and the lone graded scorer, Saudi Crown is out of a daughter of Grade III turf winner New Economy who was sold to China Horse Club for $500,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. But, after failing to make the races and having produced only a minor winner from her first two foals, New Narration was sold on to Harry Landry for $17,000 in foal to Yoshida (Jpn) at Keeneland November in 2021.

Saudi Crown's run of success last season ensured that New Narration would be a hot commodity at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale last fall, and so it proved, as she was knocked down to Summer Wind Equine for $850,000 while in foal to Nashville.

LOUISIANA S. PRESENTED BY RELYNE GI BY HAGYARD-GIII, $169,750, Fair Grounds, 1-20, 4yo/up, 1 1/16m, 1:43.20, ft.
1–SAUDI CROWN, 124, c, 4, by Always Dreaming
                1st Dam: New Narration, by Tapit
                2nd Dam: New Normal, by Forestry
                3rd Dam: New Economy, by Red Ransom
($45,000 Ylg '21 KEEJAN; $240,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR). O-FMQ
Stables; B-Chc Inc. (KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Florent Geroux.
$105,000. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-2-0, $982,085. Werk
Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Red Route One, 118, c, 4, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit.
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen.
$35,000.
3–Happy American, 118, g, 6, Runhappy–Queen of America, by
Quiet American. ($385,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Lothenbach
Stables, Inc. (Jack Lothenbach); B-Claiborne Farm (KY); T-Neil L.
Pessin. $17,500.
Margins: 5 3/4, HF, 1 1/4. Odds: 0.70, 4.30, 23.50.
Also Ran: Five Star General, Confidence Game, Smile Happy. Scratched: Kupuna.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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‘Rising Star’ Nash Faces Track Phantom In Lecomte Rematch Headlining Saturday Graded Races

Like one of those old split-flap mechanical signs at train stations, everyone knows that in the new year the 'Run for the Roses' leaderboard will fluctuate. Week-to-week, the top points begin to compound–from 20 to the winner Saturday and going as high as 100 to the winner come April.

The trail to Derby 150 begins a much steeper ascent on Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans as the GIII Lecomte S. offers 3-year-old colts 20-10-6-4-2 that can be applied to Bank of Churchill.

This year's edition pits a field of eight against one another with the central question being: what happened to Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) in the December running of the Gun Runner S.?

The heavy favorite was unable to build on his Nov. 12 'TDN Rising Star' performance under the Twin Spires at second asking when he powered to the lead, torched a field of maidens by 10 1/4 lengths and posted a 97 Beyer for trainer Brad Cox.

The race shape in the Gun Runner was nothing of the sort for the Godolphin homebred, as he was forced to watch Track Phantom (Quality Road) take control towards the end of the backstretch and never relinquish the lead.

Track Phantom (center) with Nash (along the rail) | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

“It was great to see him [Track Phantom] win the race against a talented field, but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” said the winner's trainer Steve Asmussen. “I love how he's doing, very happy with him and how he's trained since the Gun Runner. I feel good about the draw and excited to run him again. Past success from there so we'll see what we can do.”

Of course, the pair will have others to contend with in this spot and chief among them is Lat Long (Liam's Map). The dark bay trained by Ken McPeek was never out of the money in all five of his juvenile starts against maiden special weight company starting at Churchill back in September. Facing the likes of GSW Dornoch (Good Magic) and Track Phantom himself, Lat Long broke through at Oaklawn Dec. 17 against his stablemate and next-out winner Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}).

“[Lat Long] has been a horse who is still trying to figure it out a bit,” McPeek said. “He's not all there yet. But we're going to try him at a higher level and see how he handles tougher company.”

Also after points is Can Group (Good Samaritan), who was last seen running fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita for trainer Mark Casse. Joining him will be two more Cox runners in Ethan Energy (Uncle Mo), who broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths at second asking over this surface Dec. 23, and Awesome Road (Quality Road). Bred by Claiborne Farm, the latter was a $600,000 Keeneland September purchase by Albaugh Family Stables and Donegal Racing.

 

Saudi Crown Kick Starts His 4-Year-Old Campaign

Preceding the Lecomte is the GIII Louisiana S. for 4-year-olds and up going 1 1/16th on the main track. This race marks the return of Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming). Now a 4-year-old, the gray debuted a winner by 4 3/4 lengths at Keeneland last April, then won against allowance company at Churchill Downs a month later.

Saudi Crown | Sarah Andrew

Finishing over the summer as the runner-up by a nose in the GIII Dwyer S. at Belmont Park and in the GII Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga, the Brad Cox trainee set the pace en route to the winner's circle in the GI Pennsylvania Derby at Parx in September. A popular pick in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, the colt finished a well-beaten 10th to close out his year.

“I'm not treating it like he has to be on the lead,” Cox said. “He's a smart horse. He's capable of sitting off. When he broke his maiden, he sat off horses. I really don't think he has to be on the lead. It probably will be a situation where he will have to take a breath at some point, you can't just run all-out throughout.”

After Cox watched Saudi Crown drill five furlongs behind Nash Jan. 13 (1:00.20, 3/51), the trainer said, “It didn't quite set up as well as we expected. There were other horses out there and we got caught up with a little more company than we wanted. I was very, very happy with the breeze. He was a little wide through the lane and around the turn. Plenty fit. He had a good work the week before last. We just wanted him to cruise along the other day and he did. I think he's set up for a big spot.”

Opposing him in New Orleans are a number of seasoned challengers looking to set the tone for their own campaigns. Smile Happy (Runhappy) has not been seen since he ran fifth in the GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park in July. The 'TDN Rising Star' has a resume which includes a pair of Grade II wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. as a juvenile and in last year's Alysheba S.–both at Churchill Downs.

Making the gate is deep closer GSW Red Route One (Gun Runner), defending winner and GISP Happy American (Runhappy) and GII Rebel S. hero Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}).

 

Midnight Memories Faces Desert Dawn Once Again

Swinging out to Santa Anita Park on Saturday afternoon, the GIII La Canada S. has MGSW Midnight Memories (Mastery) taking on MGISP Desert Dawn (Cupid). The last time these two met as 4-year-old fillies in the GIII Bayakoa S. at Los Alamitos Dec. 15, it was Midnight Memories who got the best of her rival by a length. Favored at 6-5 on the morning line, the Bob Baffert trainee will also have to contend with, among others, GISP Musical Mischief (Into Mischief) and Coffee in Bed (Curlin).

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The Fair Grounds Stakes Scientist

From his desk in the racing office, Stuart Slagle views stakes coordination as a vocation that is part sales and part diplomacy, but for him, it is also part science.

As a former academic who received a B.S. in Zoology at the University of Texas in Austin and studied biophysics at the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana before working with supercomputers as a system engineer, his approach to filling a stakes race is always interspersed with the scientific method and predictive analytics.

“There is nothing like pursuing the science of a favorable outcome,” he said.

Parlaying those experiences into Thoroughbred racing actually was not a major shift. After all, it is a sport built on figures and a breeding structure handed down across generations.

Originally from Ohio, Slagle grew up among the tumbleweeds in Lubbock, Texas. Loving baseball and football in the Panhandle, he was always fascinated how statistics powered the flow of information. He turned to zoology because it was high time to declare a major during his Longhorn junior year. Classification, behavior and the distribution of animals taught him that observation could be a keen skill to develop.

Computer modeling and predictive analysis melded with handicapping races, which he gave up to seek employment in various racetrack positions over the past 20 years from being a placing judge at Sunland Park in New Mexico to the Racing Secretary at Prairie Meadows in Iowa.

“As an academic at heart, I'm fascinated by a horse's biomechanics and how aerobic exercise relates to the analysis of speed figures and their standard deviation,” he said.

Though he has studied the science behind how and why certain equine athletes fit into specific races, stakes coordination is a relatively new experience for Slagle, having been hired by Scott Jones to take the helm at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans last fall.

“There are so many experienced coordinators out there that I deeply respect in this business,” he said. “Scott is one of them, and I am just fortunate to follow in his footsteps.”

Moving forward, Slagle's job is a complicated one when it comes to selection. Before the completion of the meet Mar. 26, he will have to filled 65 starting gates that are worth a combined $8.5 million. Under Jones's tutelage, his managed lineup includes this weekend's Silverbulletday S. and the GIII Louisiana S., and of course, GI Kentucky Derby prep races like the GIII Lecomte S., the GII Risen S. and eventually, the GII Louisiana Derby.

Part of Saturday's card, The Alys Look (Connect) wins the Silverbulletday S., at the Fair Grounds | Hodges Photography / Lou Hodges, Jr.

The series for both the Derby and the GI Kentucky Oaks has provided some important stops along those trails, and much continues to be criticized on social media concerning the fact that the Fair Grounds does not have a Grade I race. Slagle explains that needs to be tempered, especially when you consider all of the factors that the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association employs to determine what makes a graded race.

“You have to understand that it is out of your control [grading process] because there are the race quality scores based on speed figures, there's the workbook, and how the top four finishers perform after the race, just to name a few,” he said.

Within this construct, a stakes coordinator is constantly looking at the many options before them when it comes to filling the entry box. Sure, they are trying to get the best horses possible and the largest fields, but they are also thinking tangentially about a variety of pieces of data.

“We always want horses with stakes experience,” Slagle explained. “But that is not always easy to obtain, so it is important to also think about ones that are class elevating at the right time.”

What a Thoroughbred does with their career after a race at the Fair Grounds could prove just as important to future grading of a race as what it has done before. Running numbers and looking at potential candidates comprises a sea of data. Slagle begins with a control by cold texting and calling some 70-80 trainers that could have prospective runners in their midst. He will get rapid responses, slow ones will trickle in and some will not respond at all.

The science behind the selection process moves quickly to a sales pitch, and then turns into a series of diplomatic talks as barns are cagey about showing where they are going to run next. Most of the time, they will wait till the last possible moment to declare, so Slagle has to be mindful of the options before a race closes. Poker faces are the norm.

Just as with any business, tracks want their stakes competition to have a race worth betting. In other words, a heavy favorite against a group of outclassed runners does not help the handle, and in an age when horses run less, you are asking connections to risk coming to your race, instead of to another track.

“This is a major financial commitment that owners are making by entering a stakes race, and we are asking for them to invest in the product that we are putting out there,” he said. “At the same time, we are also thinking about our patrons, the betting public, and our own bottom line, so there is no recipe for success because each time we do this it is totally different.”

Balancing all of this in his stakes lab, Slagle is seeking equine athletes with potential for success and he determines that by measuring their patterns of behavior. Looking at their early maiden races and the speed figures they posted can be coupled with the distances that they traveled in an effort to help identify potential stars in the making. The results though of these “tests” will not always come quickly, as sometimes a Thoroughbred's racing maturation develops well after they compete in a Fair Grounds stakes race. That is why decisions that are made now by the stakes coordinator can reverberate into an unknown future.

“When we are putting together a lineup, I still think regularly using the scientific method and hypotheses,” he said. “We know, for instance, which barns run off short rest and all of this data goes into forming a picture of who we should attract.”

With a wealth of experiences, and still much to learn, Slagle is utilizing all of the different disciplines he has encountered over the years at his new job in New Orleans. Like a zoologist in the field, he wants to find the right Thoroughbred that matches his ecosystem. As he builds his hypothesis about each potential entry, the next stakes race slowly, then rapidly takes shape. Then, it is on to the next one.

Returning to Stuart Slagle's desk at the Fair Grounds, there is a definite science behind his method. A background in zoology can't hurt when it comes to this type of selection process.

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