TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23

We're inside the 11-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but still a month away from the important leap to races at nine furlongs or longer. Although there was no major upheaval within the rankings this week, we do have a new No 1. The subplots thicken as the cadence quickens.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Make no mistake: Newly top-ranked Classic Causeway didn't “inherit” the No. 1 rating on this list because the former kingpin, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), ran second over the weekend. Rather, Classic Causeway carved out his own spot atop the totem pole with a grace-under-pressure performance in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Keen to make the pace, this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper ripped through a :22.66 opening quarter, then toned down the middle fractions while being ceaselessly hounded but always exhibiting confident body language. Classic Causeway kicked for home with three legitimate threats right behind him, but spurted away under urging before unleashing a “Wow!” gear in deep stretch that punctuated a visually impressive final sixteenth in :5.98 (the only sub-six-seconds clocking among preps at 1 1/16 miles this season). The GII Tampa Bay Derby is next. Note that the Nos. 1 and 2 colts within the Top 12 exit the two most competitive individual preps we've witnessed so far in '22 (the Davis S. and the GII Risen Star S.), and they also hail from the key juvenile race from '21, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which has now produced three next-out graded stakes winners and one runner-up.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy's hard-charging second after enduring traffic in the Risen Star was respectable enough off a 12-week layoff to keep him in the upper tier of the Top 12. This son of Runhappy broke adeptly, settled capably when asked to rate, then secured a spot third from last entering the backstretch. From about the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths marker he was mildly pocketed but still patiently handled by Corey Lanerie. Midway through the turn it looked as if Lanerie was about to make his move outside, but he had to hit pause on that plan when the onrushing Zandon (Upstart) claimed the same path. Turning for home, Smile Happy was walled up with too much work to do, yet when Lanerie aimed for inside passage, his colt responded to rousing. But that burst of energy three-sixteenths out put Smile Happy on the heels of a caving Pappacap (Gun Runner), so Lanerie had to shift back outside before splitting horses and clearly gaining second at the eighth pole behind a good-as-gone winner. It only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of the geared-down Epicenter (Not This Time), and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his runner-up effort adds to an upward-trending three-race arc.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Trainer Bob Baffert texted “no plans yet” several days ago when asked for a next-race update. But history can provide a good guess as to where 'TDN Rising Star' Messier will show up following his romp in the GIII Bob Lewis S. on Feb. 5. Prior to Messier's win, Baffert had won the Lewis (or its predecessor, the Santa Catalina S.) nine times. Seven of those Lewis winners next started in the GII San Felipe S. in early March. Last year, Medina Spirit won the Lewis, then ran second in both the San Felipe and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby before crossing the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile won all three of those Santa Anita preps, then ran second in Louisville.  Those efforts stand as the best two Derby performances by Baffert horses who took the Lewis-San Felipe route.

When a horse outclasses only four others by 15 lengths like Messier did in the Lewis, it can be difficult to discern how strong the effort really was. But make no mistake about the major-league 103 Beyer Speed Figure this $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker unleashed–the only triple-digit Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022.

This colt, like all Baffert trainees, remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel will go next in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and if all goes according to trainer Todd Pletcher's plan, the GI Curlin Florida Derby will be his final start before Louisville. This physically imposing son of More Than Ready has paired a 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile with an 89-Beyer front-running allowance score over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. Although the field for the Fountain of Youth is still taking shape, right now only one other Top 12 contender is listed as a likely entrant. That means Emmanuel will almost certainly start as the favorite in a race that's recently been brutal to the chalk: Fountain of Youth faves have gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, and have managed just three wins from the last 15 (including one demotion via disqualification). Still, with 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream starting so close to the first turn and finishing in a short-stretch configuration, you'd have to think Emmanuel's pure speed and demonstrated fondness for the surface might erase any concerns about the negative trend for faves.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Pletcher recently told TDN that “the [GII] Wood Memorial [S.] is the 100-point race that we've got him targeted for since he won the [GII] Remsen [S.] at Aqueduct.” The only question, he explained, is whether or not this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo will get another start between now and that Apr. 9 New York race.

In the GIII Holy Bull S., Mo Donegal was a beaten favorite while suffering the most glaring adverse trip among top Derby contenders so far this season. Riding a closer by nature, Irad Ortiz Jr. wasted a lot of lateral movement going from the rail on the first turn to the five path on the backstretch, only to attempt another blocked inside bid on the far turn before being directing his colt widest of all for a belated drive to the wire.

As Pletcher termed it, “everything kind of unfolded the wrong way for him and it took him a while to get out in the clear and able to make his run. It was the kind of effort we were hoping for, even though it wasn't the result we were wanting.”

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon's trip to New Orleans for a prep race was exactly that–a useful preparatory effort for an overall goal that is 2 1/2 months down the road. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart broke in the air and was relegated to last in the early stages while tugging at the bit. He settled four off the rail for the back straight, then uncorked a methodical march while widest on the far turn that built momentum into a sustained three-furlong run. It appeared as if Zandon might have been losing steam at the sixteenth pole, but the colt re-engaged when he sensed a rival to his inside, digging in to win a head-bob for third.

Considering the shipping, racing under the lights, and having to square off against a much tougher crew, that's not a bad effort for a third career race. Zandon's Beyers are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93), and trainer Chad Brown told DRF that the Apr. 9 Blue Grass (recently reinstated as a Grade I), is the next likely target.

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Epicenter knows his job is to go straight to the front and establish control, and he executed that task effectively in Saturday's Risen Star over nine furlongs. Jockey Joel Rosario (and everyone else) knew this $260,000 KEESEP colt had the race wrapped up after cresting the eighth pole, and Epicenter's 98 Beyer, which he garnered by cranking out even-tempoed splits of :23.79, :24.18, :24.28, :24.33 and :12.45, establishes this son of Not This Time as a legit Louisville contender.

But in fairness, Epicenter's no-mishap win has to be juxtaposed against the trip duress suffered by the two well-backed horses who chased him through the stretch. Would he have won if both Smile Happy and Zandon had gotten clean runs at him? We've already seen that Epicenter has the physical and mental fortitude to hold off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, like he did when second in the GIII Lecomte S. And had he not gotten pipped at the final jump by an out-of-the-clouds long shot in that January race, Epicenter would otherwise be riding a four-race win streak into the GII Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's two-for-two, Early Voting's relatively high Top 12 ranking isn't based so much on what he's accomplished so far as what he might be able to deliver. He's a late developer who has demonstrated improved conditioning, confidence and mental seasoning with races under his belt. So when and at what distance will this $200,000 KEESEP buy peak? That's a question everyone who owns a son or daughter of leading first-crop-sire Gun Runner wants answered.

His Beyers don't tell us much: Early Voting's 76 and 78 are both below-par for elite-level Derby contenders. But those numbers were both earned over dull-ish winter surfaces at Aqueduct (although the Beyers are designed to adjust for the nature of the surface). This colt's 4 1/2-length wiring of the GIII Withers S. field earned black type, but his MSW score in a one-turn mile actually comes off as the more impressive try.

Favored at 4-5, Early Voting pressed outside in a three-way duel, cracked one rival with sustained pressure, sparred with the other before dispatching him on the far turn, then capably repulsed a fresh run from the stalking second choice who had built up winning momentum through the stretch.

9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The three-for-three Newgrange headlines Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which this year is newly positioned as a late-February prep because of Oaklawn's earlier-than-usual Apr. 2 scheduling of the GI Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last two Rebels and eight of the previous 13. But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, he saddled beaten favorites in four straight runnings (counting split divisions in '19).

This $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be really pushed along on the far turn before finishing with interest to win the GIII Southwest S., and Baffert said afterward that jockey John Velazquez told him Newgrange might not have been handling the track. Since then, the connections of several Southwest also-rans have similarly described that day's surface as being cuppy and deep in the aftermath of very cold weather, which could explain why some runners didn't care for it, and why Newgrange only earned a one-point Beyer bump off his previous effort (88 to 89).

We've now seen him wire fields and win from off the pace, so Newgrange is tactically versatile; being able to run well despite not really liking the footing also shows he doesn't need everything his own way to win.

10) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Probable for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

If Rattle N Roll goes Mar. 5 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., that will represent a 21-week layoff since his 81-Beyer GI Breeders' Futurity S. score. Over the last five years, trainer Ken McPeek has won at a 16% clip with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. If you drill down to look at only the subset of 3-year-old males within those parameters, he is two for 20.    There are pluses and minuses to this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt's Grade I win last fall. On the pro side, he displayed a high level of comfort while racing covered up midpack before launching a prolonged winning bid three furlongs out, beating No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway in the process. On the con side, Rattle N Roll really only had to outrun stragglers over a short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles, and with the exception of Classic Causeway, not a single horse out of that Keeneland stakes has subsequently won a race.

11) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

They say if you wait long enough, everything cycles back into vogue again. Way back on Sept. 18, Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill. He was then shelved, but this Constitution colt's two-for-two record was good enough to get him listed on January's first installment of the Top 12. He was a little bit behind in training and thus got leapfrogged in the rankings, but now with seven published breezes and three straight bullet workouts, his stock is rising again.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has this $265,000 KEEJAN and $420,000 KEESEP colt humming along under the radar in preparation for a likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby. His Iroquois win earned grittiness points because Major General overcame a bobble at the start before unwinding with an all-business move 3 1/2 furlongs out. He gamely traded bumps with the favorite in upper stretch, then still had enough gas late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

Efficiency, athleticism and an affinity for the Gulfstream racing surface all play in White Abarrio's favor as he points for the Florida Derby. This speed-centric Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss to date was a credible third at Churchill behind heavy hitters Classic Causeway and Smile Happy. But similar to what was discussed in Epicenter's write-up, in terms of the bigger Derby picture, it's legit to question how much of White Abarrio's win in the Holy Bull S. was attributable to this colt's own prowess, or to him being able to sail clear on the front end while the top four favorites behind him all endured various forms of in-race adversity. Having said that, his 97 Beyer merits respect. Only two sophomores have run a better number this year: Messier's 103 and Epicenter's 98.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): Bought for $45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 last month at KEEJAN, this H. Graham Motion trainee is two-for-two with wins at Fair Grounds and Tampa, and could be the sleeper in the Tampa Bay Derby, a stakes that has been won by horses with odds of 8-1 or higher in each of the last four runnings.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Nice surge late from this $620,000 KEESEP colt to catch his Baffert stablemate napping in the late stages of the El Camino Real Derby.

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Lecomte S. upsetter's form got shored up when the horse he caught at the wire, Epicenter, came back to wire the Risen Star S. Four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR) prepping for the Louisiana Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two for Pletcher when a daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. Lots of options for a new graduate, but the Derby clock is ticking.

In Due Time (Not This Time): This three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) fired a bullet breeze last Friday off a 92-Beyer allowance win by open lengths.

The post TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: The Cap of Good Hope

As somebody remarked at the time, on seeing B. Wayne Hughes and M.V. Magnier deep in conversation one morning before the 2019 Breeders' Cup: “I'll give you 140 guesses what they're talking about.”

Both men were at Santa Anita representing farms that have had a transformative influence on the commercial breeding landscape, developing a similar system for launching stallions on an industrial scale. We have, of course, since grieved the loss of Hughes–but among his many legacies can now be counted a supporting role in the defeat of The Jockey Club's contentious proposal to cap books at 140 mares.

True, the litigating farms had not yet managed to net that particular whale when a harpoon from the Kentucky state legislature got the job done virtually overnight. That initiative will maintain the 72nd district representative in the esteem of many in his community, as one of their own; and wherever you stand on this divisive issue, you know that Matt Koch, for one, will absolutely buy into the decorous talk of unity with which The Jockey Club sugared the pill they've had to swallow.

And it really does feel incumbent on all who have prevailed here not just to be magnanimous in victory, but also to take that step back and ask whether at least some of the concerns The Jockey Club had sought to address might merit collective attention.

(Click the play button below to listen to this column as a podcast.)

All parties profess to have the interests of the breed at heart, albeit sometimes perceiving these in a fashion that blatantly coincides with their own. And certainly it can be argued that The Jockey Club's approach was too arbitrary–in both senses of the word–to deal effectively with a challenge as complex as maintaining genetic diversity. To me, however, we only ended up in this pickle because the real need for correction fell beyond the reach of any enforcement: at ringside, that is, and in the behavior of buyers.

As it was, we ended up with a stand-off that could be conveniently conflated with wider polemics. The conservative establishment, for instance, resisting brash, self-made success; or paternalism versus the free market. Following the intervention in Frankfort, it can even be depicted as a test of the kind of state autonomy we are seeing harnessed, as sacrosanct, against federal menaces to the constitutional right to dope your racehorse.

The trouble with all this emotive symbolism is that if you're not careful you end up taking a train that terminates in no regulation at all. And then how would you preserve the integrity of the breed? If there's enough money in it, for enough people, you'll end up with a cookie-cutter racehorse, between artificial insemination and eventually cloning, the only remaining differentiation being what you inject with your needle.

For now, it's well-worth remarking that actually nobody would be better suited by a more even spread of mares than the stallion farms themselves.

Trying to get your money back on a stallion in barely 18 months is a horrible business model for their accountants. But that is pretty much what the market is often asking them to do, in flitting from one rookie to the next like a honeybee in a hothouse. While operations as skillfully adapted as Spendthrift and Ashford still seem able to keep a stallion in the game at least through years two and three, many young sires are being abandoned overnight by breeders terrified of getting stuck with the second or third crop of a sire cooling off in the ring–albeit even then he still won't have had a chance to demonstrate whether he can actually breed runners. Nothing, in the end, should be more commercial for a mare than a bunch of stakes horses under her name. But, if you're breeding to sell, then you'll probably start off by mating to sell, too.

And really, as I've often acknowledged, you can no more blame commercial breeders for the overall situation than you can the farms. Both are trying to put bread on the table through the notoriously precarious agency of an animal prone to countless game-ending mishaps. So, the only reason hundreds of mares are sent to unproven new stallions, many of whose credentials are decidedly marginal anyway, is because of anticipated market demand.

Now, I've been rebuked in the past that proven stallions are so expensive that you have no choice but to roll the dice on a new one. But I won't buy that while some new sire who will probably end up with one stakes winner in Panama, and standing in Oklahoma, continues to draw three times the mares than, for instance, one who produced winners of the two most prestigious dirt races in America, in Lookin At Lucky.

I do willingly concede two things. One is that the situation is infinitely worse in my homeland Britain, and Ireland. At least commercial breeding in Kentucky remains properly focused on a horse that can run two turns on the first Saturday in May. The other is that there is a self-fulfilling logic to investing in a first crop, in that most stallions will never get a better book than their debut one.

That said, I do think we all need to take our share of responsibility–above all, those who direct investment at ringside. They need to be held account both by their affluent patrons, who want nothing better than a runner; and by the breed itself, which would be far better served by the seeding of commercially unglamorous but demonstrably effective sires. If The Jockey Club's attempt to stem the tide simply wasn't viable, then it's up to all of us to make such contribution to the betterment of the breed that falls within our reach.

So note that while the two big Derby hopes resuming in the GII Risen Star S., Zandon and Smile Happy, each happen to be from only the second crops of their sires, both Upstart and Runhappy stand at farms that keep a voluntary lid on book sizes. This, of course, is partly because they believe they actually look after their clients better that way, by preventing inundation at the sales. And the whole reason I'll be rooting for Zandon is that he was brought into the world by such exemplary people, who scrupulously dovetail their commercial mission with the long-term prosperity of the Thoroughbred itself.

Certainly this, at last, looks like the race to put horses back at the center of the Derby conversation, rather than one particular trainer. True, Smile Happy happens to represent a barn that finds itself with Baffert-like depth, this time round; and his win over the Derby track last fall has now been advertised further still by Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway). Just like Zandon, however, he comes into a tough field pretty raw. You feel that both horses only need to run well enough to set up a grab for the necessary gate points next time.

If they do make the Derby, mind, they plainly won't have many miles on the clock. Whether such delicate handling, increasingly common among modern trainers, might reflect some perceived or actual dilution in the breed is hard to say. Perhaps a horse like Zandon would have been perfectly equal to an old-school grounding: his sire, after all, was placed at the elite level at two, three and four. But there are plenty of old sages around who will tell you that horses today simply don't have the timber of generations past.

And that's the kind of trend we must keep in mind if tempted to predicate our breeding strategies only on short-term gain. If you didn't like being told what to do by The Jockey Club, that's fair enough. But if, as everyone invariably claims to be the case, your choices are governed primarily by the welfare of the horse, then you shouldn't need telling in the first place.

If there's one thing more sacred than your right to take your own decisions, it's the wellbeing of these noble animals as they pass through our brief stewardship. Rights, remember, are the other side of the exact same coin as duty. If we want to take our own decisions, then we must also accept the accompanying responsibilities.

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Brown Not Optimistic Jack Christopher Can Make Derby

Still recuperating from an injury that prevented him from running in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher (Munnings) is about two weeks away from rejoining Chad Brown's Florida division. However, the trainer said he was not sure if he has enough time to get him ready to run in the GI Kentucky Derby.

“He's going to be up against it, that's for sure,” Brown said when asked about making the Derby. “I don't want to rule anything out until I put my hands on him, but he's certainly behind. To get him to go a mile-and-a-quarter I'm going to need to have something under his belt. We'll see where he takes us and if he doesn't make [the Derby] we have several other races we'd love to target with him.”

Coming off a win in the GI Champagne S., Jack Christopher was expected to go off as the favorite in the Juvenile for Jim Bakker, Gerald Isbister and their new partners Coolmore and Peter Brant, who bought in after the Champagne. He subsequently had a screw inserted in his left shin to repair a stress fracture. The surgery was done by Dr. Larry Bramlage. Jack Christopher was then sent to WinStar Farm and Brown reports that he is now back under tack and should join his stable in “a couple of weeks.”

“It's been frustrating,” Brown said. “You hate to miss a race like the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he would have been the favorite. He was training so well. He's a really talented horse. The Derby is not the be all and end all, but it would be lovely to have one of the top contenders.”

Brown has another top 3-year-ld colt in Zandon (Upstart), who finished second, beaten a nose, in a roughly run GII Remsen S. He's had two recent four-furlong works at Payson Park and Brown remains high on him.

“He's worked really good both times and has settled in nicely,” he said. “He's possible for the [Feb. 5 GIII] Holy Bull. It's between the Holy Bull and the [Feb. 19 GII] Risen Star. I don't think I want to wait all the way to the [Mar. 5 GII] Fountain of Youth to run him. He's only had two starts and I think he would benefit from an extra race. I'm really pleased with him.”

Brown also believes that Early Voting (Gun Runner) is a potential Derby horse. Early Voting has had one start, winning a Dec. 18 maiden race at Aqueduct.

“Anything else I have will be a late bloomer,” Brown said. “Early Voting won first time out going a mile on the dirt at Aqueduct. He didn't earn a fancy figure or anything, but when you see a son of Gun Runner debuting at a mile on the dirt and winning first time out on kind of a dead track you have to take a little notice. I'm not one to have a horse cranked for their best number at that time of year. He's an interesting horse going forward.”

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Mandaloun Looks to Solidify Claim in Louisiana Derby

Juddmonte Farms' TDN Rising Star Mandaloun (Into Mischief) attempts to follow up on a professional last-out score in the GII Risen Star S. in Saturday's GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Earning Rising Star status first time out going six panels at Keeneland last October, the bay followed up with another solid win while adding an additional furlong in a Churchill Downs optional claimer the following month. Heavily supported for his seasonal reappearance in the Jan. 16 GIII Lecomte S. in New Orleans, he had to settle for third, beaten two lengths, behind the re-opposing Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) and Proxy (Tapit), a length behind the winner. For his latest success in the nine-furlong Risen Star, the colt was fitted with blinkers for the first time, a move which likely helped move the colt forward, according to Brad Cox. As in the Lecomte, Proxy finished behind the winner.

“He got a lot out of the Lecomte and I think the blinkers propelled him forward as well in his second start [of the season],” explained Cox. “He got a lot out of his first two races, but the first time going two turns in the Lecomte, you can train as much as you want but there is nothing like the experience of going two turns. He also just got more experience. It was only the fourth start of his career. He is very accomplished horse with only four starts.”

Asked about the timeline in the run-up to the First Saturday in May, Cox said, “It was four weeks back to the Risen Star off the Lecomte. He is five weeks now to the Louisiana Derby, and if all goes well, we'll have six weeks to the [May 1] Kentucky Derby. He has continued to move forward in every start. I'm good with the six weeks in between [the Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies], because he's a good work horse because he gives you what you need in the morning. At the end of the day, I think he's cut out to be a mile-and-a-half horse with the Empire Maker on the bottom side. I am very confident we can show up and do what we need to do [in the Louisiana Derby]. Hopefully, we can move forward to the Kentucky Derby.”

Hoping to repeat his winning effort in the Lecomte, Midnight Bourbon, who drew one outside of Mandaloun in the seven-hole, will be reunited with Joe Talamo, aboard for the Winchell Thoroughbreds runner's two latest starts, including his Risen Star third.

“In the Lecomte we had a really good trip and got out to a pretty easy lead that day and were able to wire them,” recalled Talamo. “Last time, even when Mandaloun and Proxy went by, if you watch that race again, he was kind of coming on again in the gallop out. I think the added distance [of the Louisiana Derby] is only going to help him.”

Asked how he expects Saturday's race to unfold, Talamo said, “The race looks like it can almost be the exact same setup as the Risen Star. Rightandjust [Awesome Again] is a quick horse and I'm sure he's going to be in front, and unless something happens and nobody goes to the front, I'll go up and take it. If not, I'll be content to just track him.”

He continued, “I also really love his post because, if somebody goes out there, he is content to settle in second or third, too. Hopefully, we can just get a good trip. I think it'll be one of those races that, whoever gets the right trip, and from the quarter-pole home, we'll see who is the best. I really think the trip is going to suit Midnight Bourbon.”

A winner second time out going a mile at Ellis last August, the $525,000 KEESEP yearling purchase was runner-up in Churchill's GIII Iroquois S. before rounding out 2020 with a third in the GI Champagne S. Oct. 10.

“He's a big horse, but very athletic,” said Talamo. “Normally, a horse like that, it takes him a stride or two to get going. It's really amazing how good of a gate horse he is. He breaks very sharp for a horse that big. He's really smooth to ride. And he's one of those horses that you just try to be a good passenger and let him do the rest.”

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