Friday Racing Insights: American Pharoah Half To Hoppertunity Debuts At Del Mar

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8th-DMR, $80K, Msw, 3yo/up, 6 1/2f, 10:27 p.m.

   A $475,000 KEESEP yearling purchase by the Three Amigos, AMERICAN REFUGEE (American Pharoah) will be the 13th foal to race out of the GSP mare Refugee (Unaccounted For). This makes him a half-brother to MGISW & $4.7 million earner Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday) and MGISW & 'TDN Rising Star' Executiveprivilege (First Samurai). This is also the family of champion 3-year-old filly & MGISW Davona Dale (Best Turn). Trained by Bob Baffert, who famously campaigned his sire and both of his half-siblings, and owned by the trio of Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman who also raced both half-siblings, American Refugee posted a near-bullet work July 23, going five furlongs in :59 1/5 (3/86) and followed that up with six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 (2/5) July 29. TJCIS PPs

4th-ELP, $80K, Msw, 2yo, f, 5f, 3:14 p.m.

   From the first crop of Triple Crown champion Justify, AUNT SHIRLEY debuts Friday for owner/breeder WinStar Farm LLC. The chestnut filly is out of a half-sister to MG1SW Decorated Knight (GB) (Gailieo {Ire}). Third dam Mariah's Storm (Rahy) is best known for producing the likes of European horse of the year and leading sire Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat) and New York-based sire Freud (Storm Cat). Second Dam Pearling's half-sister You'resothrilling (Storm Cat) has gone on to produce eight straight winners from as many to race including: G1 Tattersalls Irish Two Thousand Guineas winner Gleneagles (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), MG1SW Happily (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), G1 Prix de Diane Longines winner Joan of Arc (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), and G1 Etihad Airways Irish One Thousand Guineas victor Marvellous (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) amongst others. TJCIS PPs

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This Side Up: Iron Legacy Will Never Rust

He's a rebel with a Causeway. But he is a rebel, all the same; or a maverick, at least; an outlier. Certainly we can't expect everyone to train horses like Kenny McPeek, nor indeed to buy them the same way. Apart from anything else, most people simply wouldn't be good enough.

McPeek's 10 millionaires to date have been sired by the likes of Cuvee, Louis Quatorze, Daredevil, Hit It a Bomb and Tejano–and he signed for most of them himself. As one who marches to his own drum, his style obviously wouldn't work for everyone. Think outside the box, and you'll have to manage without the many investors who feel nervous straying beyond the comforting confines of convention. They will seek sanctuary in the kind of strike rates available with trainers who start horses about as often as Halley does his Comet. Nonetheless, there are some pretty universal lessons to be drawn from the success of Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) in the big race at Belmont last weekend, just two weeks after his barn debut.

Because if McPeek is too much of a one-off to be categorized simply as “old school”, there's no doubting the throwback element in Classic Causeway himself, famously one of just three foals from the final crop of the Iron Horse. And if McPeek is to some degree a victim of his own success, in that you tend not to be sent too many yards of silk if you can contrive such fine purses of a relative sow's ear, let's not forget that one of the world's most lavishly resourced stables is supervised by another who believes that Thoroughbreds actually thrive on competition.

 

 

Click the play button below to listen to this week's episode of This Side Up. 

 

Very few elite trainers in Europe, nevermind America, would have drawn out the reserves of Giant's Causeway as boldly as Aidan O'Brien. Already a Group 1 winner at two, Giant's Causeway started his sophomore campaign by fending off a battle-hardened, race-fit 6-year-old in April. Between May 6 and Sept. 23, he then finished first or second in eight Group 1 races, constantly switching distance. After that, as nobody will need reminding, he shipped to run the dirt monster Tiznow to a neck in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 'Iron Horse,' Giant's Causeway | Coolmore

We're talking about an exceptional specimen here, clearly, but O'Brien has always operated on the basis that his patrons at Coolmore require reliable exposure of genes they might wish to replicate. And like his mentor Jim Bolger, who last year ran 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire}) in two other Classics over the next three weeks, he additionally believes that maturing horses flourish for racetrack experience. Peeping Fawn (Danehill) had an aristocratic pedigree, nothing to prove there, but O'Brien still worked her like a stevedore. She had already been beaten three times in April when breaking her maiden on May 16. Eleven days later she ran third in a Classic over a mile. FIVE days later she was beaten half a length in the G1 Oaks at Epsom, over a mile and a half. Did she recoil from this dazing sequence of examinations? She did not. Instead, going up and down in distance every time, she won four Group 1 prizes in 54 days.

As it happens, Peeping Fawn has proved a fairly disappointing producer, albeit unlucky that her best daughter derailed. Giant's Causeway, however, has emulated his sire Storm Cat as a hugely important crossover influence. That's unsurprising, after his own slick transfer to the American racing environment, and he stands as a withering rebuke to the prescriptive approach we see, both sides of the water, to racing surfaces. He came up with a worthy heir in Europe at the first attempt in Shamardal, whose maternal pedigree was shaded very green, but has book-ended his career with an outstanding young Kentucky sire in Not This Time, whose own family obviously contains no less resonant dirt names.

Interestingly, Classic Causeway is out of a mare by Thunder Gulch, whose breeder Peter Brant has always been so far-sighted in this regard. Thunder Gulch himself, of course, combined a sire who had won benchmark races for the recycling of dirt speed–the GI Hopeful S., the GI Met Mile H. twice, the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint–with a turf mare whose dam had finished second in the G1 Gold Cup at Ascot over two and a half miles.

Most horses are more versatile than we will ever know. We should always start with the animal in front of us, and how it all fits together, rather than meekly obey herd presumptions. Sure enough, having only recently taken Classic Causeway into his care (after Brian Lynch laid some excellent foundations), McPeek urged a switch to turf because “the horse has a foot like a pancake”.

But often it's simply a question of opportunity. It was only the search for outcross blood at Coolmore, for instance, that allowed War Front and Scat Daddy to penetrate European myopia as coveted “turf” influences. And while John Magnier and his partners seem to be doing pretty well without my advice, I will just dust off my plea that they might indulge European mare owners by allowing American Pharoah at least one spring in Co Tipperary. (Especially as I keep reading that the home farm may apparently be a little short of fresh blood just now.)

Bleecker Street | Sarah Andrew

After last week's glimpse of how a more wholesome future might look, we revert to business as usual in the first Grade I of the Saratoga meet, with Chad Brown having to generate his own competition on grass. In fact, just one other American trainer has mustered a runner in the Diana S. It's striking, however, that most exciting member of the field is also the only one bred in America.

Bleecker Street was hardly a blatant turf prospect the day Brant purchased her as a yearling, down the road at Fasig-Tipton, but her sire Quality Road has a very flexible genetic background. (Just his first two dams will tell you that, as daughters of Strawberry Road and Alydar–and there's plenty more when you get down in the wheat.) Even Chad Brown has been prepared to start Bleecker Street in four graded stakes already this year, so presumably McPeek or O'Brien would by this stage have sent her to the moon and back.

Just as surface aptitude tends to be self-fulfilling, so you have to wonder to what extent pessimism about the constitution of the modern racehorse would stand up to horsemen actually going out there and testing it properly. But if we won't train them like McPeek, then the least we can do is breed them like Classic Causeway. As it was, no farm in Europe or Kentucky offered Bolger enough for Poetic Flare. And that's why, when so much of our commercial glister washes out the moment a horse has to break sweat, it will be the Japanese who end up with the horses of iron.

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A Classic Upset: Classic Causeway Wires Belmont Derby at 25-1

A season that has had more ups and downs than the Cyclone at nearby Coney Island reached new heights for Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), as the blaze-faced chestnut–making his first start on the grass–forgot to stop en route to a 3/4-length defeat of Godolphin's favored Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) in Saturday's $1-million GI Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational on Long Island. Peter Brant's Stone Age (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), heretofore never worse than midfield in the early stages of any of his previous eight trips to the races, made steady progress to finish third after racing far back through the opening furlongs.

Classic Causeway was having his second start Saturday for trainer Ken McPeek, who saddled him to a third in the GIII Ohio Derby June 25, and who not afraid to think a bit outside the box.

“He came back good and was eating the bottom out of the feedbag,” said co-owner Patrick McKeefe of Kentucky West Racing. “What Kenny says, I do.”

The early scratching of wire-to-wire GII Pennine Ridge S. winner Emmanuel (More Than Ready) left the pace scenario of the Belmont Derby somewhat murky, and that played right into the hands of Classic Causeway. Employing the same front-running tactics that won him the GIII Sam F. Davis S. and GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby along the Triple Crown trail over the winter, the homebred colt jumped right into the bridle for Julien Leparoux, and while he had a bit of early company in the form of G2 Dante S. runner-up Royal Patronage (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}), Classic Causeway was going along easily enough and was past the six-furlong peg in a manageable :48.02.

Allowed to lob them along and in a good rhythm through three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.33, he remained well within his comfort zone and maintained a safe advantage over Royal Patronage as they reached the quarter pole. Asked for a sprint by the Frenchman, Classic Causeway carried a two-length bulge into the ultimate eighth of a mile, and try as they might, the chasers ran out of real estate. Nations Pride, who defeated future G1 Cazoo Derby runner-up and £1.2-million Goffs London Sale topper Hoo Ya Mal (GB) (Territories {Ire}) by seven lengths in the Listed Newmarket S. Apr. 29, closed his final quarter-mile in a race-strongest :22.98 to just beat G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial romper Stone Age out of second.

“The plan was to go on the lead,” confirmed Leparoux. “The only time I was a little worried was in the first turn when Joel [Rosario, aboard Royal Patronage] was kind of head-to-head with me. When he took back, my horse got to cruising and happy to be on the lead. I was getting him to relax nicely and switch off. It was a good run for him.

“He was actually feeling pretty fresh today,” he added. “It was Kenny's idea to wheel him right back on the grass, and it paid off today for sure.”

Early Saturday afternoon, the New York State Gaming Commission issued a brief statement on the scratching of Emmanuel, saying without elaborating further: “The Commission Steward ordered the scratch of Emmanuel, scheduled to run in today's Belmont Derby, due to issues relating to veterinary records. The matter remains under review.”

Looking every bit a Classic contender off his two wins at Tampa, Classic Causeway was last of 11 as a 37-10 chance in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2, casting a fair bit of doubt on his immediate future. After first expressing their intention to pass the GI Kentucky Derby, connections called an audible, and Classic Causeway did not disgrace, finishing 11th, albeit from off the pace. Sensibly spotted in the Ohio Derby after being transferred from Brian Lynch to McPeek, Classic Causeway was a clear third, beaten just over two lengths by Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile).

Pedigree Notes:

Classic Causeway is one of three foals–all colts–from the final crop of the 'Iron Horse' Giant's Causeway and is the late sire's 36th Grade I/Group 1 winner. His other two offspring born in 2019 are Giant Game, third in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and Shadwell homebred Monaadah, a winner of three of his five career starts and fourth in the Listed Sir Henry S. for Saeed bin Suroor at Newmarket July 7.

Private World is the dam of a 2-year-old filly by Lookin At Lucky, a yearling colt by Justify and a filly by the Triple Crown winner foaled May 15.

Saturday, Belmont Park
CAESARS BELMONT DERBY INVITATIONAL S.-GI, $1,000,000, Belmont, 7-9, 3yo, 1 1/4mT, 1:59.99, fm.
1–CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, 122, c, 3, by Giant's Causeway
                1st Dam: Private World (MSW, $166,058), by Thunder Gulch
                2nd Dam: Rita Rucker, by Dmitri
                3rd Dam: Darlease, by Temperence Hill
1ST GRADE I WIN. O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek; J-Julien Leparoux. $535,000. Lifetime Record: 9-4-1-2, $1,106,100.Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Nations Pride (Ire), 122, c, 3, Teofilo (Ire)–Important Time (Ire), by Oasis Dream (GB). 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE, 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. O-Godolphin, LLC; B-Godolphin (IRE); T-Charles Appleby. $185,000.
3–Stone Age (Ire), 122, c, 3, Galileo (Ire)–Bonanza Creek (Ire), by Anabaa. O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Westerberg Smith, Peter Brant; B-White Birch Farm Sc (IRE); T-Aidan P. O'Brien. $100,000.
Margins: 3/4, HD, NK. Odds: 26.75, 2.40, 2.90.
Also Ran: Grand Sonata, Royal Patronage (Fr), Sy Dog, Limited Liability, Machete (Fr), Tiz the Bomb, Implementation, Napoleonic War, Stolen Base. Scratched: Emmanuel.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Taking Stock: It’s High Time for This Stallion

The Classic season is over. A surface reading shows that Arrogate (Unbridled's Song), Keen Ice (Curlin), and Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) got the GI Kentucky Oaks, GI Kentucky Derby, and GI Preakness S. winners, respectively, from their first crops, and proven star sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), who had a Derby winner from his first crop in 2016, sired the GI Belmont S. winner. Sometimes, however, what's between the lines is as important as what's on the page, and Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway), whose second-crop sons Epicenter and Simplification were major players in the run-up to the Classics and in the Derby and Preakness themselves, occupied that white space this season.

Epicenter, who won two Grade II Derby preps at Fair Grounds–the Risen Star S. and the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby–was sent off as the Derby favorite and finished an admirable second. He returned in the Preakness as the race favorite and again finished second, this time with trouble and a ride that gave him way too much to do.

Simplification won the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream and was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby. He was also in the Derby, finishing fourth, a neck ahead of subsequent Belmont S. winner Mo Donegal.

These two, both from Candy Ride mares, were joined by two other Not This Time 3-year-olds vying for spots in the Classics. In Due Time was second to Simplification in the Fountain of Youth, over Howling Time in ninth, who bounced back to finish second by a scant nose to Cyberknife (Gun Runner), the GI Arkansas Derby winner, in the GIII Matt Winn S. at Churchill a day after the Belmont S.

All told, Not This Time, with his oldest foals just four, is represented by 18 black-type winners, including two Grade I winners–the filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S. at Keeneland a month before the Derby, and Princess Noor was a top-level winner at two in 2020. Seven of the 18 are graded stakes winners.

This is an impressive haul for the half-brother to Lane's End's Liam's Map, more so because they were all conceived on a $15,000 stud fee. It's only the last two seasons that his stud fee has risen, to $40,000 (2021), $45,000 (the early part of this year), and $75,000 (later part of this year). The mares bred to him at higher fees will no doubt include some significantly better producers and racetrack performers than those covered his first four years, and they will include some mares Taylor Made has specifically handpicked for him by pedigree analysis. All of this is certain to elevate the stallion's stakes production in the coming years.

The broodmare sires of his seven graded winners are respectable enough, with dams by Candy Ride (two), Tapit, Speightstown, Smart Strike, Cape Town, and Wilko. However, the modest last sales prices of these mares tell the real story: stakes-placed Simply Confection (Candy Ride) sold for $80,000, in foal to Not This Time; Silent Candy (Candy Ride), a Grade III-placed stakes winner, made $130,000, in foal to Scat Daddy; non-winner Delightful Melody (Tapit) was a $65,000 RNA, in foal to Flameaway; Ida Clark (Speightstown), a winner of $25,580, sold for $60,000, in foal to Outwork; unraced Smart Jilly (Smart Strike) was a $70,000 2-year-old; unraced Running Creek (Cape Town) sold for $35,000, in foal to Latent Heat; and Grade III winner Sheza Smoke Show (Wilko) sold for $185,000, in foal to Not This Time.
The first graded winner for each of these mares was by Not This Time. In some cases, they were bred to high-class stallions before producing their graded winners.

Silent Candy, the dam of Epicenter, had an unraced colt by More Than Ready and a winner of $34,404 by Scat Daddy; Running Creek, the dam of Grade III winner Easy Time, had a Twirling Candy winner of $57,410 and a Pioneerof the Nile winner of $48,896; and Sheza Smoke Show, the dam of Princess Noor, had a Malibu Moon winner of $28,056, and an unraced Liam's Map.

Not This Time only raced at two, and he made just four starts, winning twice. However, he won the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill by 8 3/4 lengths and next out was a neck second to Classic Empire in the GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, 7 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Practical Joke. Classic Empire would go on to win the Arkansas Derby and Practical Joke the GI H. Allen Jerkens S. at Saratoga, so his form was obviously of the highest order and there's no telling what he might have accomplished had injury not ended his career. His half-brother Liam's Map was a multiple Grade I winner.

Not This Time entered stud at three and is an outstanding physical specimen, big and tall, and he made an impression with breeders right away by getting good-looking foals. Buyers responded in the sales ring, paying an average price of $76,833 for the 18 weanlings from his first crop that sold in 2018, with seven making $100,000 or more. From then on, he's been something of a sales sensation across the board vis a vis stud fee. Princess Noor, for example, made $1.35 million as a 2-year-old at OBS April in 2020.
In his case, looks translated to performance.

Black-type percentages

That Not This Time has already sired 18 black-type winners is impressive as it is on face value alone, but it's even more so as a percentage of named foals. These days, with popular stallions routinely covering more than 100 mares each year, a good stallion can be expected to get 5% black-type winners to foals, and for young horses with fewer crops racing, the percentages are even lower.

War Front leads all established Kentucky stallions with a ratio of 11.23%, followed by Tapit at 9.86%, Speightstown 9.77%, Into Mischief 8.56%, Medaglia d'Oro 8.36%, Curlin 8.29%, and Ghostzapper 7.89%.

Not This Time is next on the list behind Ghostzapper at 7.47%, ahead of Munnings at 7.15%, Quality Road 7.13%, Uncle Mo 6.95%, Constitution 6.80%, More Than Ready 6.73%, and Street Sense 6.67%.

You get the picture. Not This Time is right up there in the production of black-type winners with the best in the country, and he's the youngest of this group.

Among his own cohort, he's the leading third-crop sire, ahead of Laoban at 5.71%, Upstart at 4.07%, Hit It a Bomb 3.95%, Nyquist 3.18%, and Runhappy 3.04%.

Not This Time's first crop came to the races in the COVID year of 2020 when racing, as life, was disrupted, but there were clues then–at least by August, when I wrote here “Not This Time Leads Freshman Sires“–that he was going to be more than a flash in the pan. He was getting quality maiden special winners then and performing far above his stud-fee level, and that impression has turned into reality.

A stallion that can move up his mares to graded and listed levels–not to mention Classics contenders–at a $15,000 fee is one that can better withstand the drops in book quality from years two to four, and we're seeing this year that his second crop headed by Epicenter and the others noted is highly effective.

He is the real deal.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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