Into Mischief Filly Gets First Oaks Win for Walsh, Godolphin and Gaffalione

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Godolphin homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) stayed out of trouble with a perfect, stalking trip from her far outside draw and gamely fended off Repole Stable's Gambling Girl (Dialed In) in dramatic fashion to capture Friday's GI Kentucky Oaks.

Drawn widest of all in post 14 and adding blinkers for trainer Brendan Walsh after a runner-up finish in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, Pretty Mischievous broke well beneath Tyler Gaffalione and secured a fantastic spot in fifth rounding the clubhouse turn before a sun-splashed crowd of 106,381 at Churchill Downs.

Traveling smartly in that same position as the speedy Sunland Park Oaks heroine Flying Connection (Nyquist) set sharp fractions of :23.07 and :46.96, the 10-1 shot began to unwind with a four-wide blitz on the far turn and narrowly stuck her white pair of Godolphin blinkers in front passing the quarter pole.

Pretty Mischievous spurted clear under several left handers from Gaffalione in the stretch and had just enough left in the tank to defeat the Todd Pletcher-trained last out GIII Gazelle S. runner-up by a neck. Pletcher and Repole, of course, will be very well-represented by Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby favorite Forte (Violence).

The Alys Look (Connect), a well-beaten third for Brad Cox in the Fair Grounds Oaks, was another 2 1/2 lengths back in third. Wet Paint (Blame), favored at 8-5 after sweeping Oaklawn Park's 3-year-old fillies prep series for Godolphin and Cox, closed from ninth to finish fourth.

It was a first Kentucky Oaks victory for Sheikh Mohammed's operation, Walsh and Gaffalione.

“We haven't won an Oaks before,” Godolphin's Michael Banahan said. “We've been second with a filly, and it seems like it was a long time ago with Little Belle. So, to come in here with two live chances, with two homebreds, I think it means everything to us.”

He continued, “Sheik Mohammed has developed a beautiful broodmare band here in the U.S. I think we are reaping the rewards with the horses we've had over the last couple of years. But to me, there's only the one Classic for fillies in the U.S. and that's today in the Oaks. And so to be able to win that just means everything.”

Walsh and Godolphin have previously teamed up on MGISWs Maxfield (Street Sense) and Santin (Distorted Humor).

“Obviously, I have had a very close association with them my whole life,” Walsh said. “I did nine winters in Dubai. I worked for them in Al Quoz as a rider. You know, when you're there and you're doing that, it was like working for an all-star team and getting on all-stars.”

Walsh continued, “And now to actually have the opportunity to train the all-stars is just, like, that's the stuff you dream of when you're a kid. If you want to be a footballer or a coach or whatever is to be around the very best. And it's just a great opportunity for me to be able to work with horses of this caliber.”

Gaffalione rode two Breeders' Cup winners at Keeneland last year and celebrated his first win in the Triple Crown series aboard War of Will (War Front) in the 2019 GI Preakness S. Gaffalione was also the previous regular rider of last year's champion 2-year-old filly Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief), who never factored in ninth in the Oaks.

“It's amazing. I feel so blessed,” Gaffalione said. “The trip worked out perfectly. I stayed out her way and she took me the whole way. What an incredible filly.”

Pretty Mischievous, a winner of her first two starts at Churchill Downs last fall, suffered her first career defeat finishing third in the GII Golden Rod S. beneath the Twin Spires Nov. 26. The bay enjoyed a fantastic winter at the Fair Grounds, annexing her first two career stakes victories in the Untapable S. Dec. 26 and the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Feb. 18. She looked like she was well on her way for a third straight win in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but, after hitting the front in the stretch, reported home 3 1/4 lengths behind the re-opposing Southlawn (Pioneerof the Nile). The latter finished a disappointing 10th with trouble in the Kentucky Oaks.

“This is the kind of thing you dream about, to win a Grade I, especially the Oaks at Churchill Downs, it's a long way from Cork in Ireland,” Walsh concluded. “It's indescribable, it's exactly what we're here for, and why these guys [Godolphin] breed these good horses, and why everybody works so hard.”

Pedigree Notes:

Will there be any heights left for Into Mischief to climb? Multiple leading sire titles: check. Breeders' Cup winners: check. Kentucky Derby winners: check. Seemingly one of the few holes on his CV was a Kentucky Oaks winner, but Pretty Mischievous took care of that. And perhaps, just perhaps, Into Mischief could become just the fifth sire to score a Derby-Oaks double in the same year, something that hasn't been done since Native Dancer sired the winners of both races 57 years ago. The Spendthrift sire has no fewer than three chances Saturday.

Pretty Mischievous is one of 130 black-type winners bred in the Northern Hemisphere for Into Mischief, who also has 63 graded winners, 17 at the top level, and seems to have no end to his prowess in sight. He is 18 this year, has his best books still in the pipeline, and could very well be on track to demolish just about every sire record in the books. Few stallions can keep Into Mischief's staggering pace of top horse after top horse, but if there's one, it's the Oaks winner's broodmare sire, Gainesway's Tapit. The two crossed have come up with five of the 85 stakes winners out of Tapit's daughters, including GSW and Oaks also-eligible Hoosier Philly and Saturday's GSW and Derby entrant Rocket Can.

The second foal for 2016 GI Spinaway S. winner Pretty City Dancer, who is a half to 2007 GI Gazelle S. winner Lear's Princess (Lear Fan), the Oaks winner was bred by Godolphin in Kentucky. Stroud Coleman Bloodstock acquired Pretty City Dancer on behalf of Godolphin for $3.5 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale while she was carrying her first foal, now the winning 4-year-old Medaglia d'Oro filly named Ornamental. The mare was barren to Uncle Mo for 2021, but has a Medaglia d'Oro yearling filly and a Street Sense filly born Mar. 28. As so many of the good ones do, Pretty City Dancer directly descends from blue hen La Troienne–her seventh dam–through the Businesslike branch. The Grade I race named after La Troienne was run on the Oaks undercard Friday and was, naturally, won by another daughter of Into Mischief, Played Hard. –by Jill Williams

Saturday, Churchill Downs
LONGINES KENTUCKY OAKS-GI, $1,250,000, Churchill Downs, 5-5, 3yo, f, 1 1/8m, 1:49.77, ft.
1–PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS, 121, f, 3, by Into Mischief
                1st Dam: Pretty City Dancer (GISW, $286,344), by Tapit
                2nd Dam: Pretty City, by Carson City
                3rd Dam: Pretty Special, by Riverman
1ST GRADE I WIN. 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Godolphin (KY);
T-Brendan P. Walsh; J-Tyler Gaffalione. $705,250. Lifetime
Record: 7-5-1-1, $1,206,560. Werk Nick Rating: A++.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the
free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Gambling Girl, 121, f, 3, by Dialed In
                1st Dam: Tulipmania, by Empire Maker
                2nd Dam: Eventail, by Lear Fan
                3rd Dam: Felicita, by Rubiano
1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($200,000 Ylg '21 SARAUG). O-Repole
Stable; B-Gallagher's Stud (NY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. $227,500.
3–The Alys Look, 121, f, 3, by Connect
                1st Dam: Foul Play, by Harlan's Holiday
                2nd Dam: Over the Edge, by Thunder Gulch
                3rd Dam: Cyber Cat, by Storm Cat
1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($60,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-Ike and Dawn
Thrash; B-G. Watts Humphrey (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $113,750.
Margins: NK, 2HF, NK. Odds: 10.37, 13.05, 30.28.
Also Ran: Wet Paint, Dorth Vader, Flying Connection, Defining Purpose, Mimi Kakushi, Wonder Wheel, Southlawn, Affirmative Lady, And Tell Me Nolies, Botanical, Promiseher America. Scratched: Hoosier Philly, Julia Shining, Taxed.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Norm Casse Enjoying the Ride with First Oaks Filly

Norm Casse lived in Louisville throughout most of his childhood, but one spring, he spent a few months in Ocala with his father. Norm was responsible for getting himself up and out the door for school each morning while his dad was busy at the training center.

One morning, as Kentucky Oaks day dawned, Norm's alarm never rang.

It was well into the morning before Mark Casse burst into his son's room in a panic. “Norman, why aren't you at school?” he cried.

“Dad, chill out,” retorted a teenaged Norm. “It's Kentucky Oaks day.”

That was the day that Norm Casse learned that the country's entire school system does not, in fact, shut down for Oaks day.

As a kid, the Kentucky Oaks marked a special occasion for Casse because it meant a Friday away from school in Louisville. Years later, after discovering his own passion for racing, working for his father for a decade, and now having trained on his own for six years, the Kentucky Oaks–and Derby week–has all come to mean so much more.

“I've been coming to the Oaks and Derby every year since 1995,” Casse reflected. “Even when I moved to Canada and worked for Dad up in Woodbine, the only weekend I ever took off was Derby weekend because I didn't want to break that streak. Being born and raised here is the reason why I do it. It's not because my family is involved. It's more because I love the Derby, the Oaks, and the whole week leading up to it.”

This year, Casse will saddle his first starter in one of those famed 3-year-old races with GI Kentucky Oaks contender Southlawn (Pioneerof the Nile). For Casse, who is a third-generation trainer and has already earned multiple graded stakes victories and just under 150 career wins, claiming his first Grade I on Friday would be a pinnacle moment.

“I can't really describe what it would mean to win the Kentucky Oaks,” he said. “All my friends and family are from here. They may not know what the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Pacific Class is, but they know what the Kentucky Oaks is. If we were able to win that, they'd look at me like a rock star.”

Casse comes to the Oaks with a filly that he and his team have always had high hopes for. Southlawn, a $290,000 yearling purchase for Robert Masterson, showed potential early on as a juvenile, but drawing out her true ability in the afternoons proved to be a puzzling task for Casse.

Southlawn takes to the main track at Churchill Downs | Sara Gordon

Southlawn was unplaced in her debut last June, finishing fifth behind none other than Mark Casse's future champion and Oaks contender Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief). After breaking her maiden by five lengths in her second start at Ellis Park, the filly from the final crop of Pioneerof the Nile was never a contender in the GIII Pocahontas S. and she came up empty in two tries on turf in the fall.

“After her last start on the grass here in the fall, we knew she was going to get the winter off,” Casse explained. “Tyler Gaffalione came back and said that she was having a lot of issues with her breathing. We sent her down to the Fair Grounds and we performed a myectomy on her. She's been undefeated ever since.”

The procedure seems to have solved any displacement issues the filly was dealing with as she has returned to the main track this year and has taken her first two sophomore starts by storm. She claimed an allowance at Fair Grounds by eight lengths in February and stamped her domination of the 3-year-old filly ranks in New Orleans with a win in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

Casse said that what has impressed him most about Southlawn's sophomore campaign is her developing running style.

“She doesn't have that early speed she had before,” he explained. “Now she makes a big, sustained run, which I think is going to be very beneficial in the Oaks. It just seems to me that she's better off breaking and trying to get a decent position, but then letting her get into her own rhythm and not forcing things too much. I like that she's so kind and professional now that no matter where we are in a race, we're still going to feel comfortable that she is going to run when Reylu asks her to run.”

Reylu Gutierrez, who competed in his first Kentucky Oaks last year, just claimed his first leading rider title at Fair Grounds earlier this year. The up-and-coming jockey has gained even more recognition while riding  a hot streak at Keeneland.

“I think one of the storylines that shouldn't go unsaid is that Reylu gets along with her really well,” Casse noted. “He's riding really well right now and he's so confident in her and in how she's training that it gives me a lot of confidence.”

Another essential character in Southlawn's storyline is of course her owner Robert Masterson.

The California-based owner had horses in training with Mark Casse for many years, highlighted by the outstanding two-time champion grass mare Tepin (Bernstein). Tepin was in the Casse barn at the same time that Norm was overseeing much of the stable.

Casse said that working with the talented filly and playing a role in her success at the top of the game, from the 2015 GI Breeders' Cup Mile to the 2016 G1 Queen Anne S., gave him the confidence he needed to go out on his own. When Casse first set up his stable, Masterson was his first–and for a short time, his only–client.

Masterson has been involved in racing for over 40 years and explained why he wanted to support the fledgling trainer back in 2018.

“Norm was the one that really took care of Tepin the whole time she was there,” he said. “When he decided to go out on his own, I just felt an obligation. Everybody needs a shot and I felt like I could be the person to give him a shot. I'm not the guy who is going to have a 40-horse stable, and his father already had all these big owners, so I thought that I could give him four or five horses and that would help him out.”

Picked out by Deuce Greathouse, Southlawn was a $290,000 yearling purchase for Robert Masterson | Sara Gordon

While Casse's success quickly grew in those first few years, Masterson's horses ran through a streak of bad luck. But Masterson stuck with his trainer and was eventually rewarded for his faith with the success of Southlawn.

“We didn't have much luck in the beginning, but it wasn't because of Norm,” Masterson said. “I think he's a really good trainer and a good caretaker of the horse. You're going to look at him five years from now and people are going to go, 'Where'd he come from?'”

Other than horses he owns in partnership, Masterson sends all of his horses to Casse. His stable is off to a fast start in 2023 and Friday could set up to be a monumental day. On top of Southlawn's Oaks bid, Masterson's Grove (Munnings) and New Beat (Not This Time), both 3-year-old fillies coming off maiden wins, are aiming to get into the entries. He also has a juvenile filly named Loveland (Munnings) looking to make her debut.

Masterson, a graduate of the University of Maryland, said that Southlawn is named after a neighborhood in Maryland outside of Washington D.C. He explained that his mother moved to South Lawn to be close to him when he was in college and years later, his first son was born there.

While Masterson hinted at his excitement ahead of Oaks day, noting that this is his first starter in the historic contest, he added that he is hoping for a happy outcome because of the positive implications it would have for Casse, his longtime bloodstock agent Deuce Greathouse, and the filly's many other connections who are making a name for themselves in the industry.

“I've been in the business since 1980 and I've had a lot of great horses so I'm not nervous,” he said. “I just hope she gets all the right chances. We always thought she was really going to be good and when she came back as a 3-year-old, she was a monster.”

Southlawn will face her toughest competition yet on Friday. The rematch of Southlawn with GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Wonder Wheel might be the start of a friendly father-son rivalry at the highest levels of the sport.

“When I went out on my own, my dad kept talking about how he couldn't wait until the day where we starting running against each other in these marquee races,” Casse explained. “So here's our first opportunity and it's a very cool opportunity. I'm just proud of my entire team. I feel like one of the things that we've done right since I went on my own is that I've built a really nice team that I'm confident in. I think they make a big, big difference in the stable and how well we're doing.”

Derby Week brings an unparalleled kind of excitement to the Churchill Downs backside, but Casse said he plans to embrace the hubbub and take in every moment. After all, it's an opportunity he's been dreaming about for years.

“I think the filly is training so incredibly well,” he said. “She looks great and her coat is great. She seems happier than ever and I know we're ready. I'm sure I'm going to be extremely nervous the morning of, but right now I'm just trying to enjoy the ride.”

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Affirmative Lady Launches AMO Racing’s U.S. Operation

The GII Gulfstream Park Oaks brought a new contestant into the GI Kentucky Oaks picture in victress Affirmative Lady. The connections of the blossoming daughter of Arrogate are newcomers not only to the Oaks trail, but to racing in the U.S. After launching its American stable two years ago, AMO Racing celebrated its first graded stakes win in the States with Affirmative Lady's score on Saturday.

Founded by football agent and businessman Kia Joorabchian, AMO Racing has proven to be a force on the other side of the Atlantic in recent years. Top performers are led by last year's G2 July S. winner Persian Force (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}), who is new to stud at Tally-Ho Stud this year, plus multiple Group 1-placed Mojo Star (Ire) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) and a host of Group 2 winners including Hello You (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) and Crypto Force (GB) (Time Test {GB}).

Joorabchian is based in London, but he made sure to be on site at Gulfstream for Affirmative Lady's two-length victory.

“It was probably the best moment that we've had in U.S. racing so far,” he said. “I knew she was not going to be a favorite, but I flew to Miami to see her run. It's a long way for me to go, but in my heart of hearts I knew she would pull off a great performance. She has so much ability and when you watch her work, you can see it. ”

A $210,000 Keeneland September buy, Affirmative Lady was among the first yearlings that AMO Racing purchased in America. Joorabchian remembers finding the filly well because, while he and his agent Robson Aguiar loved her at first sight, not many other buyers were interested.

“When I bought her, everyone was telling me that it wasn't a great buy,” he recalled. “No one really thought much of her other than Robson and me. She looked a little bit backward at the time, but she was very sweet. Her composure and the way she walked was amazing. We knew she wouldn't be early because she wasn't quite on her toes moving the way you would expect a fast, sharp 2-year-old.”

Just as Arrogate didn't truly blossom until later in his career, Joorabchian hypothesized that his new purchase would need plenty of time to develop. He knew he needed to find a patient conditioner and decided that Graham Motion was the perfect candidate.

“Graham really liked her from the word go,” Joorabchian said. “I think it's a credit to Graham. He took something that maybe wasn't the hip, trendy kind of horse. We actually paid a considerable amount for her at the time because Arrogate wasn't popular. I think with the Arrogates, early in their career people thought he was disappointing. But he's proving to be a great stallion and it's really unfortunate that he's not around because she is special.”

Affirmative Lady was winless in two starts at Keeneland last fall, but she touted her potential when she ran a close second to Julia Shining (Curlin) in the GII Demoiselle S. After she ran third in her sophomore debut in the Busada S. at Aqueduct, Motion sent the filly to Gulfstream. She broke her maiden there with first-time blinkers on Feb. 26. before she was sent off at 8-1 in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Following the victory, Motion said that the more he watches replays of the race, the more he is impressed with his trainee's performance.

Crispy Cat wins the Texas Glitter S. | Lauren King

“There were moments during the race where I was concerned,” Motion admitted. “I thought between the half-mile pole and the three-eighths pole that she might have been struggling a bit. But I've watched the race a couple of times now and once she got in gear, I thought she really came on and got away from them. She just toughs it out. When I asked Luis about it, he said he was never concerned. He thought he always had the horse, which reassured me. I think she wants to go farther. I believe a mile and a sixteenth is too short for her.”

While the Gulfstream Park Oaks was the biggest victory so far this year for AMO Racing, they've had plenty else to celebrate recently. One week before Affirmative Lady's win, they had their first stakes winner in America with Crispy Cat (GB) (Ardad {Ire}) in the Texas Glitter S. The colt was a Group 2-placed juvenile in England before he transferred to Jorge Delgado for his 3-year-old season.

Also last Saturday, AMO Racing had the winner of the first juvenile contest of the year in Ireland with Bucanero Fuerte (GB) (Wootton Bassett {GB}). On the same day, 3-year-old Mischievous Doll (Into Mischief) broke her maiden at Turfway Park for Paulo Lobo.

“It was a fantastic week from Ireland to Miami to Kentucky,” said  Joorabchian. “Affirmative Lady was the height of it. We've been very patient with her and it was one of the highlights of my racing career because it was the horse that no one really wanted, but that we loved.”

2023 is already AMO Racing USA's biggest year yet and the operation is just getting started. Joorabchian said that their string here is upwards of three times the size of what it has been the past two years. Nearly 20 horses purchased here are aiming for the starting gate this year and another 20 are shipping in from Europe.

“I'm hoping that within the next few years, we will be pretty balanced between having the same number of horses here as we do in Europe, or maybe even more here,” said Joorabchian.

Asked about the appeal of racing in the U.S., Joorabchian explained that he was drawn to better competition and more prize money.

“U.S. racing is moving upwards,” he said. “The competition is much tougher because you have much bigger prize money. If you do well here, you're really rewarded. If you do well in the U.K., it's more about the value that you're creating in your horses rather than the prize money. I think the competition is much better here as well. You're competing against more people across the spectrum. As an owner like me, I want to compete with more people and be more on level terms and I think the U.S. creates much more competition.”

AMO Racing USA horses are gearing up for 2023 campaigns with trainers all across the country.

Jorge Delgado trains recent stakes winner Crispy Cat, who Joorabchian said is pointing toward the Keeneland race meet and perhaps after that, a trip to Ascot. Delgado's string also includes Olivia Darling (Palace) a 4-year-old filly who ran second in the Minaret S. at Tampa Bay in February; New York Thunder (Nyquist), who won his first two starts at Gulfstream late last year as a juvenile and is now training at Keeneland; and Kingmax (Ire) (Kingman (GB}), a Group 3-placed 4-year-old colt looking to make his U.S. debut in the coming weeks.

Kia Joorabchian | Tattersalls

Paulo Lobo's fleet of AMO horses includes recent maiden winner Mischievous Doll (Into Mischief) and Thunder Love (GB) (Profitable {Ire}), who came to America last year as a 3-year-old and scored a win at Turfway in February. Hurricane J (Nyquist) ran seventh in last year's GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile after two consecutive juvenile wins, but was unplaced in his sophomore debut in February. He now looks to get back to his winning ways in the Lafayette S. at Keeneland on Friday.

“We still have really high hopes for him,” said Joorabchian. “We just think he needed a little more time and I'm hoping this next race will be a lot better.”

Wesley Ward has added a few AMO European exports to his stable with Lady Hollywood (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), the winner of the G3 Prix d'Arenberg last September who finished a credible fifth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, as well as three-time group winner Go Bears Go (Ire) (Kodi Bear {Ire}).

“We have a really exciting group of horses,” reflected Joorabchian. “Racing is something that I have a passion for and the passion is just getting bigger and bigger. I hope we can achieve some fun things because we're putting a lot behind it.”

Despite many Group 2 and Group 3 wins and quite a few Group 1 placings, AMO Racing is still searching for its first Group/Grade I victory. Their next chance might be on the first Friday in May.

Motion, who will be will be seeking his first Kentucky Oaks win, said that Affirmative Lady came out of last weekend's race in fine shape.

“She got a lot of dirt in her eyes and had a sore eye the next morning, but it looks good now,” he said. “She'll stay in Florida for a few weeks and probably ship to Keeneland around the 17th and we'll breeze her that weekend. The timing has been great. To be able to give her five more weeks until the Oaks really couldn't be better.”

Joorabchian said he has not yet been to the Kentucky Derby or the Oaks, but added that he is looking forward to this year's experience with Affirmative Lady and hoping for many more trips there in the future.

“When you're racing at the level that we're at now, your dream is to get to the Oak and the Derby, so this is going to be a very special moment,” he said. “We have put this filly through some tough tasks and she has come through in all of them. She has already hit her expectations and everything now is a bonus.”

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The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Seeking Clarity

For the sport's best 3-year-old fillies it's where the rubber meets the road time. The last round of preps for the GI Kentucky Oaks is upon us. In the GII Fair Grounds Oaks and the Bourbonette Oaks, there were a pair of key races last weekend. This week, we have the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks and the GIII Fantasy S. It's a division where, since 2-year-old filly champ Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) finished second at 1-2 in the Feb. 11 Suncoast S. at Tampa, there has been no clear leader. Maybe that will change this weekend or next when Keeneland offers the GI Ashland S., which is expected to include three horses in our top 10. If not, this will go down as one of the most wide-open runnings of the Kentucky Oaks ever.
Somewhat ironically, a star filly did emerge last week in Munnys Gold (Munnings), who got a 106 Beyer and broke the seven-furlong track record when winning the Sophomore Fillies S. at Tampa Bay Downs. She is, by far, the fastest 3-year-old filly in training, but, at least for now, she will stay sprinting for trainer Todd Pletcher.

1) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable LLC. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly & MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,570,725. Last Start: 2nd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 48.
It's put-up-or-shut-up time for the filly who maintains the top spot, but only because no one has done anything to take it away from her. It's still hard to fathom that she lost to Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream) in the Suncoast S. and had no obvious excuse that day. A repeat effort is not going to get it done in the Ashland or in the Kentucky Oaks. But it's not unreasonable to expect that she will improve off that race and run well enough to win the Ashland. If so, she'll likely be the favorite in the Oaks. We know she won't have any problem with the track at Keeneland. She's 2-for-2 there with wins in the GI Alcibiades S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. After training at Mark Casse's training center throughout the winter, she's moved over to Keeneland for her final preparations.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

2) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame)
O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $374,410. Last Start: Won Bourbonette S. at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.
She's won four in a row with the most recent win coming in the Bourbonette at Turfway. During the streak, no one has come close to her. The only thing-and it's a big thing-that keeps her from being No. 1 in this poll is that all of her wins have come over the synthetic Tapeta surface at Turfway. How will she do on the dirt at Churchill Downs? We won't know until she runs in the Oaks. Outside of her apparent comfort zone on the Tapeta, she's had two other starts, finishing eighth in a maiden on the grass at Kentucky Downs and then second in another turf maiden, this one at Keeneland. She's by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Blame mare, so there's nothing in her pedigree to suggest that she can't handle the dirt.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

3) SOUTHLAWN (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo) O-Robert Masterson. B-WinStar Farm (Ky). T-Norm Casse. Sales history: $290,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-0-1, $318,369. Last Start: Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

Southlawn winning the GII Fair Grounds Oaks | Amanda Hodges Weir

One of the storylines for this year's Oaks could be the father-versus-son battle of Mark Casse vs. Norm Casse. Mark trains Wonder Wheel and Norm trains Southlawn, who stormed into our Oaks Top 10 with a 3 1/4-length win in the Fair Grounds Oaks. After two poor performances on the grass and a clunker in the GIII Pocahontas, Southlawn has really come into her own. Before the Fair Grounds Oaks she romped in an allowance race, also at the Fair Grounds. Casse told the Daily Racing Form that the filly's turnaround came following a surgical procedure, known as a myectomy, to clear up a breathing issue. In a division where no one has run particularly fast, she has run back-to-back Beyer figures of 86, which puts her near the head of the class.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

4) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $334,100. Last Start: Won GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.
She might represent Brad Cox's best chance of winning his third Kentucky Oaks in the span of just five years. A Godolphin homebred, she's won two straight and will look to keep the ball rolling Saturday at Oaklawn in the Fantasy S. After the filly was 10th in her debut on the grass at Kentucky Downs, she has improved with each start and has run Beyer figures of 83 in each of her last two races, wins in the Martha Washington S. and the GIII Honeybee S. A late-runner with a potent stretch kick, she should like the Oaks distance of a mile-and-an-eighth. Took a surprising amount of money in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, closing as the favorite at 4-1.
Next Start: GIII Fantasy S., OP, Apr. 1

5) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by  Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-1, $501,310. Last Start: 2nd GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 103.
More steady that spectacular. She's won four of six lifetime starts and has never run worse than third. With back-to-back wins in the Untapable S. and the GII Rachel Alexandra S., she was poised to take over leadership of the division, but couldn't get the job done when second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She didn't run badly but was no match for Southlawn. She'll likely need to improve by three or four lengths to win the Oaks, but that's not impossible. At the very least, you can count on her showing up.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

6) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $204,075. Last Start: 3rd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 16.
Like Wonder Wheel, she needs to step up in the Ashland and show the world why she was regarded as one of the top 2-year-old fillies in training last year. A full-sister to champion Malathaat (Curlin), she was an impressive winner of her debut and then won the GII Demoiselle S., the same race her big sis won in 2020. But she didn't get off to a good start this year, running third in the Suncoast. Though she was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths, at no point did it look like she was going to win the race. Yes, she can run better in the Ashland, but the jury remains out on her.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, April 7

7) AND TELL ME NOLIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate) O-Peter Redekop B.C., Ltd. B-Lara Run, LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales history: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $392,800. Last Start: Second in GIII Santa Ysabel S. at Santa Anita Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 30.
It's been a while since a California-based filly won the Oaks, a feat last pulled off by the Bob Baffert-trained Abel Tasman (Quality Road) in 2017. The best 3-year-old filly currently racing in California is Faiza (Girvin), who is also trained by Baffert. But she was not nominated to the Kentucky Oaks. That means that And Tell Me Nolies might be the flagbearer for the West Coast this year. Trained by Peter Miller, the daughter of Arrogate, who sired last year's Kentucky Oaks winner in Secret Oath (Arrogate), she had an outstanding 2-year-old season, winning the GI Del Mar Debutante S. and the GII Chandelier S. There was nothing wrong with her 3-year-old debut, where she finished second behind Faiza in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. Had a seven-furlong work at the San Luis Rey training center on Mar. 25, going in a sharp 1:25.40.
Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 8

Punchbowl | Coady

8) PUNCHBOWL (f, Uncle Mo-Devilish Lady, by Sweetsouthernsaint) O-Gary and Mary West. B-Gary and Mary West Stables Inc. (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $150,528. Last Start: Won an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0.
She did not make her debut until Feb. 11, so she has been playing a serious game of catchup ever since. Trained by Cox and owned by Gary and Mary West, she won her debut at six furlongs by three-quarters of a length. But it was her second career start that really picked up some heads. Going a mile-and-a-sixteenth in an Oaklawn allowance race, she coasted to a 4 1/4-length win under Florent Geroux. Talented but untested, she does next in the Ashland, where she'll have the chance to prove just how good she is. Was bet down to 11-1 in the Oaks Future Wager.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

9) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky).
T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $189,600. Last Start: Won Busher S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50.
Still seeking his first win in the Kentucky Oaks, future Hall of Famer Chad Brown has a puncher's chance with Shidabhuti. It's hard to say how good she is. She broke her maiden in September at Monmouth and followed that up with an allowance win in January at Aqueduct. In both races, she didn't beat much and didn't post a fast number. But she was up for the challenge when making her stakes debut in the Mar. 4 Busher S. at Aqueduct, where she won by two lengths. Still needs to prove she can win at the graded stakes level and around two turns.
Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., Aqu, Apr. 7

10) MIRACLE (f, Mendelssohn–Good Omen, by Smart Strike)
O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Magnolia Express (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $110,000 wnl  '20 FTKNOV; $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $360,000 2yo '22 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-3-1, $197,400. Last Start: 2nd in GII Rachel Alexandra S. at Churchill Downs. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20.
Will have her chance to earn her way into the Oaks field when she goes Saturday in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, a race that came up light. That's why she's the 5-2 morning line favorite even though she's 1-for-5 lifetime and her only win came in a maiden race for New York breds in her July 27 career debut. Since, she hit the board in three straight stakes for New York breds, finishing off her 2022 campaign with a second-place finish in the Maid of the Mist S. But trainer Todd Pletcher must have had confidence in her as her threw her into the deep end in her 3-year-old debut, sending her out in the Rachel Alexandra. She finished second, just three-quarters of a length behind Pretty Mischievous, showing she can handle open company.
Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 1

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