Tiz the Law (Constitution) won the GI Belmont S. Saturday, dominating nine rivals who were outclassed by the best 3-year-old colt in North America. Let the debate begin.
What, exactly, is Tiz the Law’s place in racing history and should he win the Triple Crown, does he belong in the same sentence as Secretariat, Citation, Seattle Slew and the other 10 immortals? Some will say no. Their point is that he won the first third of a Triple Crown that is unlike anything anyone has ever seen, starting with a Belmont run at a mile and an eighth. The argument is that this is so unlike the traditional Triple Crown it really isn’t a Triple Crown. That running the three races over 15 weeks rather than five makes it easier to win.
While some, but not all, of those points are valid, they miss a central point–this is a very good horse and it’s unfair to hold something against him over which nobody had any control. No asterisk is necessary.
What is the Triple Crown? It is a three-race series that consists of the GI Kentucky Derby, the GI Preakness and the Belmont. Nowhere does it say that the Triple Crown has to be, in order, the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont, with five weeks covering the start of the series to the end. In fact, that hasn’t always been the case. Nowhere does it say that the Belmont has to be at a mile and a half. Gallant Fox, the 1930 Triple Crown winner, won in a year when the Preakness was first and then the Derby.
Whether or not this Triple Crown is easier than a normal one is up for debate. Winning three Grade I races over a 15-week span is still a daunting task. Daunting but different.
The modern horse has a hard time putting together three big efforts within five weeks, but, for a Derby winner, the five weeks can actually be an advantage. The Preakness has become easily the least difficult race to win in the series. Year in and year out, it normally includes the Derby winner, two or three horses that didn’t run well in the Derby and a few new faces, none of them that good. That’s why so many horses over the last couple of decades have won the first two legs.
This is a completely different task. Tiz the Law will resurface in a Kentucky Derby that will, as is always the case, be the hardest of the Triple Crown races to win. At least one very serious horse in GI Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A.P. (Honor Code) will be there waiting for him. So will Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic (Into Mischief). There will also be, no doubt, some new faces that have yet to be tested but will be ready for prime time come Sept. 5. We may have even seen one on the Belmont card in Happy Saver (Super Saver). A first-time starter, he romped for Todd Pletcher in the fifth race and looked more than worthy of tackling stakes competition.
The 2020 Triple Crown is different. Different doesn’t mean easier. Tiz the Law will have to hold his form over a 15-week period and not get injured, which is far from easy. He will have to face a slew of new challengers. He will have to prove that he can handle the track at Churchill Downs, where he suffered his only career defeat, in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. last year.
If the Belmont were won by a 10-1 shot, probably no one would be thinking about the Triple Crown. But there are no doubts that Tiz the Law is good enough to pull this off. Time will tell if he is special, but, for now, we know that he is a very, very good horse who sits atop a division that has been decimated by injuries.
Who can beat him? You can’t possibly come up with a long list, but one horse who might belong in that group is the filly, Gamine (Into Mischief). As good as Tiz the Law was Saturday, he was not the most impressive performer on the card. Her GI Acorn was simply one of the best performances of modern times. She was that good.
She won by 18 3/4 lengths and obliterated the stakes record. As great as she ran, I don’t see any reason why trainer Bob Baffert and owner Michael Petersen wouldn’t run her next in a Kentucky Derby prep and find out if their spectacular filly belongs in the Kentucky Derby or not.
She might be able to beat Tiz the Law and so might Honor A.P. Then again, it might be that the New York-bred star is that much better than every other 3-year-old on the planet. That could mean a 14th Triple Crown winner, a deserving Triple Crown winner.
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