Gary and Mary West | Horse Racing Free Tips

Baffert On Concert Tour’s Rebel: ‘An American Pharoah-Type Run’

Concert Tour and Hozier were to be flown back to their Southern California base Sunday, a day after finishing 1-2, respectively, in Oaklawn's $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds, continuing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's stranglehold on the major Kentucky Derby prep race.

Accompanied by Jimmy Barnes, Baffert's main assistant, Concert Tour and Hozier departed the barn area at approximately 9 a.m. (Central) and vanned 57 miles to Little Rock's Clinton National Airport for a Tex Sutton Equine Air Transportation flight.

Both horses exited the 1 1/16-mile Rebel in good order, Barnes said before training hours Sunday morning outside the Royal Glint barn, which house horses for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Baffert's horses normally ship into Lukas' barn at Oaklawn.

Concert Tour ($5.40) remained unbeaten in three lifetime starts with a front-running 4 ¼-length victory under regular rider Joel Rosario. It was Baffert's record-extending eighth Rebel victory and 16^th in a Kentucky Derby prep race at Oaklawn – all since 2010.

“To me, it was kind of an American Pharoah-type run,” Baffert, via phone, said about 20 minutes following the race. “He was doing it with ease, with plenty left.”

American Pharoah, of course, is the measuring stick for Baffert's growing list of Rebel winners, taking the 2015 edition by 6 ¼ front-running lengths in his 3-year-old debut before sweeping the Triple Crown. Baffert also won the Rebel in 2010 (Lookin At Lucky), 2011 (The Factor), 2012 (Secret Circle), 2014 (Hoppertunity), 2016 (Cupid) and 2020 (Nadal).

Baffert has had at least one Rebel starter every year since his first in 2010. He has compiled an 8-4-1 mark from 15 starters, with his horses earning an eye-popping $3,971,000 in prize money.

“It's amazing,” Barnes said. “Our horses, they suit this track. They run well over it. We just took it to them yesterday, early. If they were going to beat us, they were going to have to pass us.”

Concert Tour, who was making his two-turn debut, was able to clear speedy even-money favorite Caddo River from post 7 going into the first turn and set comfortable fractions of :23.42 for the opening quarter-mile, :47.53 for a half-mile and 1:12 for three-quarters. Caddo River, after breaking from the rail, was glued to Concert Tour's flank on the outside down the backstretch and made a bid for the lead late on the second turn. But Concert Tour had another gear, opened up four lengths in midstretch and coasted home under little urging. Winning time over a fast track was 1:43.18.

“Very confident,” Rosario said. “I just looked at his ears and knew he was very happy what he was doing. Every time that horse came to him, he just took off. Very nice horse.”

Concert Tour, a homebred for Gary and Mary West, received a preliminary Beyer Speed Figure of 94 – equaling a career high – for his Rebel victory. The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense also received a 94 Beyer for his half-length victory in the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita in his previous start.

Concert Tour earned 50 points for his Rebel victory to vault to No. 4 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, according to Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to horses with the highest point totals earned in designated races like the Rebel. Hozier, exiting a Feb. 15 maiden victory at Santa Anita, is No. 12 with 20 points. The Rebel was Oaklawn's third Kentucky Derby points race.

“These horses are just starting to come around at the right time,” Baffert said. “That's what you want.”

Baffert was noncommittal on whether Concert Tour and/or Hozier would return to Oaklawn for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10. Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby three times – Bodemeister in 2012, American Pharoah in 2015 and last year's second division with Nadal.

“We'll get them back here and see how they are,” Baffert said. “I don't make that call until about two weeks before.”

The presence of another top prospect in Baffert's barn, Life Is Good, will undoubtedly impact the decision. Life Is Good, like Concert Tour, is 3 for 3, a two-time graded stakes winner and bred by the Wests.

“It's a good problem to have,” Barnes said.

Next-race plans are pending for locally based Caddo River and Keepmeinmind, their respective trainers said Sunday morning.

Caddo River, a homebred for John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, finished fifth after a front-running 10 ¼-length victory in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22. The Smarty Jones was Oaklawn's first of four Kentucky Derby points races.

“He seems to be OK,” trainer Brad Cox. “At the 3, 3 ½ (pole), it looked like he kind of ranged up, but couldn't get by. Just not good enough. I don't have a whole lot of excuses right now.”

Cox said he will talk with Anthony before making any decision about Caddo River's next start. Anthony has won the Arkansas Derby a record three times (1980, 1987 and 1992).

Trainer Robertino Diodoro said Keepmeinmind (sixth) will be considered for the Arkansas Derby and the $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2) April 3 at Keeneland. Keepmeinmind was making his 3-year-old debut after concluding 2020 with a last-to-first victory in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs.

“Not making excuses, but I was concerned about the track,” Diodoro said. “It started drying up during the week. You see Thursday's times, you see Friday's times and yesterday, and even watching training, it was getting to be like the interstate. I think one horse, C Z Rocket, who exploded down the lane (Saturday's $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes), other than that, I never saw a horse win if they weren't within three lengths of the lead Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Very disappointed. I know he's a better horse than what he showed yesterday.”

Diodoro said a decision about Keepmeinmind's next start should come in the next couple of days.

The Arkansas Derby will offer 170 points (100-40-20-10, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. Keepmeinmind (18) ranks No. 14 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

The Baffert-trained Spielberg, runner-up in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn, has 17 points to rank No. 15. Caddo River (10) is No. 24.

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Concert Tour A Smash Hit On The Road; Gives Baffert His Eighth Win In Rebel Stakes

Trainer Bob Baffert has made no secret that he believes his top two candidates for this year's Kentucky Derby are Life Is Good and Concert Tour. The former dominated his rivals in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Baffert's home base at Santa Anita on March 6 while the Hall of Fame trainer sent Concert Tour on the road to Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., for Saturday's Grade 2, $1-million Rebel Stakes.

Concert Tour,, a 3-year-old colt by Street Sense, turned in a powerful performance at Oaklawn going straight to the front and seizing the lead from the Brad Cox-trained favorite, Caddo River, setting all the fractions and then drawing off down the stretch under Joel Rosario. A second Baffert runner, Hozier, finished second, with Big Lake third and Super Stock fourth. Caddo River, coming off a 10 1/4-length victory in the opening day Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, wound up fifth while racing erratically down the stretch after chasing Concert Tour throughout.

Time of the race was 1:43.18 after fractions of :23.42, :47.53, 1:12.00 and 1:36.65.

The win was Baffert's eighth in the Rebel since 2010.

Bred and owned by Gary and Mary West (who also bred Life Is Good, who is campaigned by WinStar Farm and CHC Inc.), Concert Tour paid $5.40 as the second choice in the betting. He earned 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, which offered 20-10-4 to the second through fourth-place finishers.

Concert Tour didn't debut until Jan. 15, winning a six-furlong maiden race by 3 1/2 lengths. He came back to win the G2 San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6, coming from just off the pace to catch stablemate Freedom Fighter in the final furlong to win by a half length. The Rebel was his first try around two turns.

Baffert put three strong workouts into Concert Tour at Santa Anita following the San Vicente, capped off by a best of morning six furlongs in 1:11 2/5 on March 6.

Concert Tour and Joel Rosario established an early lead ahead of Caddo River into the first turn

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Taking Stock: West-Bred Life Is Good and Concert Tour Top Baffert Barn

Gary and Mary West bred last weekend's hugely impressive Gll San Felipe S. winner Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Saturday's leading Gll Rebel S. contender Concert Tour (Street Sense), both 'TDN Rising Stars', both trained by Bob Baffert and probably the two leading Classics aspirants in his barn, with five wins, three graded triumphs and no losses between them. That's quite a feat for the Wests and their racing manager Ben Glass–clients of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants–because the Baffert barn is loaded with expensive and well-bred auction purchases for a number of big-time outfits, including the “Avengers” group that raced Gl Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic (Into Mischief) last year, and their former partners in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy), WinStar and CHC, which races Life Is Good.

The Wests don't race in partnerships, going it exclusively alone–a rarity these days. They mostly buy yearling colts at Keeneland with a focus on Classic types with the aim of developing stallions, and their nascent breeding operation is mostly based around supporting their young horses at stud, including champions Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}), West Coast (Flatter) and Maximum Security (New Year's Day), plus American Freedom (Pulpit). That they've raced three Eclipse Award-winning colts in the last four years tells you all you need to know about their program, but Life is Good and Concert Tour, plus the promising 3-year-old homebred filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Slumber Party (Malibu Moon), are now showcasing the power of their broodmare band, too. Eventually, the plan for the Wests is to sell yearlings commercially, and selling a top colt like Life Is Good, which WinStar and CHC purchased for $525,000 at Keeneland, is good business to that end.

But did the Wests sell or keep a potential Derby winner? Much can happen between now and then, but if Concert Tour and Life Is Good were to meet in the Derby, it would test that question and add some drama to the race for the Wests–not that they need any more drama in Louisville after getting disqualified from first in the Derby with Maximum Security in 2019.

At the moment, Life Is Good, who is out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, is widely considered the most exciting and talented colt of his class, and that he won the San Felipe by open lengths with a massive 107 Beyer Speed Figure in early March makes him look like a man among boys.

“Based on what I saw today, Life Is Good is by far the best 3-year-old right now,” Gary West told me after the race. “But he will not make an uncontested lead in the Derby. Pace makes the race.”

He's right, of course, because there are questions about the colt's ability to see out 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, certainly based on the speed he shows early in races. One of the reasons Life Is Good was sold and Concert Tour, who's from the Tapit mare Purse Strings, was retained is that the former is by Into Mischief, a horse who a few years ago was mostly known as the sire of outstanding sprinter/milers, while the latter is by a Kentucky Derby winner.

Perceptions about Into Mischief have changed since Ben Glass sent us an email in late 2016 that said, “Mr. West has put Into Mischief on his list this year [for stallions to use].” The stallion's fee had been rising steadily since it hit a low of $7,500 in 2012, and it was bumped to $75,000 for 2017 from $45,000 the year before. Nevertheless, Into Mischief was represented by only two Grade l winners at that time, Goldencents and Practical Joke. The former had established himself as a premier miler and the latter, from a Distorted Humor mare like Life Is Good, was a 2-year-old of 2016 that had accounted for two Grade l races at 7 furlongs and a mile, the Hopeful and the Champagne, respectively. By the time Life Is Good was foaled in 2018, Practical Joke had reverted to sprinting after a fifth-place finish in the Derby and won the Gl H. Allen Jerkens over seven furlongs, but Audible had won the Gl Florida Derby in early 2018 and would go on to finish third in the Derby, hinting at what Into Mischief could accomplish under the right conditions.

In the August 23, 2019, column “Into Mischief's Changing Profile,” I foreshadowed the arrival of horses like Authentic when I wrote: “With the better mares he's being bred to, it's easy to project that his Grade l output at 1 1/8 miles and up will increase in the coming years. When that happens, his progeny earnings should rise that much more, which means that his rivals on the General Sire list are in for a greater tussle in the ensuing years. The latest chapter of this impressive stallion's book is just being written. Stay tuned.”

To date, Into Mischief is the sire of eight Grade l winners, and he led the General Sire list for the second consecutive year in 2020 with $22,507,940 in progeny earnings, almost $10 million more than runner-up Medaglia d'Oro. The year before, he'd led the list with earnings of $19,179,389, a little more than $3.5 million ahead of Curlin.

The Wests, however, decided to sell Life Is Good in 2019 because he was bred on the same cross as sprinter/miler Practical Joke, but they were only prepared to let him go at their price. They got it–$525,000–from WinStar and CHC, who'd raced Into Mischief's son Audible, and it was a no-brainer for the partners to send him to Baffert after their success with Justify and Baffert's handling of Authentic and the outstanding speed filly Gamine (Into Mischief) last year.

The Figure-8 and Baffert

In Gamine, the $1.8 million Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sales topper in 2019; and Authentic, a $350,000 Keeneland September yearling, Baffert had a bird's-eye view of the best of Into Mischief–and the stallion's limitations and potential as well. Both Gamine and Authentic were fast, but the filly, a champion sprinter, had distance limitations at nine furlongs like many past top Into Mischiefs while the colt proved he could carry his speed 10 furlongs against the best, surprising many in the process.

Both Gamine and Authentic are lighter and more elegant physicals, whereas Life Is Good is a more robust and masculine model. Like the other two, speed is his game, but how far he can carry it remains the question. In his second start, you'll recall, Life Is Good was cruising easily on the lead and building a sizeable margin in the stretch of the Glll Sham S. before Baffert's Medina Spirit (Protonico), a $35,000 OBS July 2-year-old, took a substantial bite out of that lead at the finish.

As Baffert was preparing Life Is Good for the San Felipe, I noticed he'd called an audible for the colt's last work before the San Felipe and fitted him with a Figure-8 noseband, which is used for control and for encouraging proper breathing through the nostrils by keeping the colt's mouth shut. I texted Baffert last Friday, before the San Felipe, inquiring in text-speak: “Noticed you put fig8 on Life Is Good for 2/28 work and have galloped him in it since. Rare for you. Should help his air, right?”

Baffert replied: “Put it on more for control. Slow him down. His air is great.”

The move proved both inspired and effective, because Life Is Good had eight lengths on Medina Spirit at the end of 1 1/16 miles whereas he'd held the same colt to a 3/4-length margin in the Sham at a mile. As Gary West pointed out, however, Life Is Good had it easy on the lead in the San Felipe with Medina Spirit hard held early to give his stablemate breathing room and the others not wanting to tangle early, but that triple-digit Beyer and the manner in which he won, even with the drifting to the middle of the track, was undeniably impressive and a move in the right direction if 10 furlongs is the goal.

Triple-Digit Beyers

The Twitter persona known as @o_crunk–if you're not following him, you should, because he's the master of stats– tweeted after the race that since Jan. 1, 2010, there have been 132 3-year-olds that have earned Beyers of 100 or more from January through April, with Baffert training 32 of them and Todd Pletcher 27 in second place. In a follow-up tweet, @o_crunk put this in context, noting that Baffert and Pletcher also get the most expensive auction purchases to work with, and he included an old blog post titled “The Toddster in context” that backs up this hypothesis with auction numbers.

Note, too, that over the same time span Baffert has trained six of the past 11 champion 3-year-old colts, the cheapest of which was Authentic at $350,000 if you don't count homebred American Pharoah's $300,000 “sale” as a yearling. Justify was a $500,000 yearling, West Coast was a $425,000 yearling, Arrogate cost $560,000 as a yearling, and Lookin At Lucky was a $475,000 2-year-old.

There's a reason why folks pay good money for yearlings and 2-year-olds at auction, and why they send them to Baffert, too.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Life Is Good Justifies the Hype in San Felipe

Representing part of the group that campaigned 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy), and sharing a sire and some quirks with last year's Horse of the Year Authentic (Into Mischief), Life Is Good further asserted his position as the best of Bob Baffert's current crop of 3-year-olds Saturday, demolishing his competition in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. WinStar Farm and CHC Inc.'s 'TDN Rising Star' was a 9 1/2-length sprint winner on debut at Del Mar Nov. 22, and had been off since defeating stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) by 3/4 of a length in the Jan. 2 GIII Sham S., good for a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.

Right to the lead from the rail as expected, the overwhelming 1-2 favorite was able to get several lengths of separation down the backside as a hard-held Medina Spirit took the first turn wide, floating The Great One (Nyquist) wider. Still traveling well within himself after a :48.83 half, the bay entered the stretch some five lengths to the good, but again displayed his previously seen antics of drifting out in the stretch. He had the extra ground to give up, however, and cruised under the line a jaw-dropping eight lengths clear. Medina Spirit held second, while 'Rising Stars' Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) and Roman Centurian (Empire Maker) completed the trifecta and super, respectively.

“He's learning to settle. He's maturing and getting smarter,” said winning rider Mike Smith, who also rode Justify. “Early on, he was so used to exploding from the pole or the gate. He's learning how to run now which is the big key, and he's learning how to get into a rhythm. The rhythm is going to be a bit fast because he is that good and he has an extremely high cruising speed. We are going to have to work on some little quirks. He starts looking at things because he is out there by himself, but I can't take so much of a hold of him to give him company either, so it's a catch-22.

The Hall of Famer continued, “He's just so talented. I had a strong hold on him down to the wire, just holding onto him making sure that he stayed straight… This horse is like that Muhammad Ali song. He floats like a butterfly, and stings like a bee.”

As for Life Is Good's potential to stretch out further, Smith said, “I think he showed that he could get the distance, when a horse can get a mile and sixteenth the way he did today, it gives you every indication they could go an eighth of a mile further.”

Baffert added, “”I like the way he got away from the gate, both of my horses got away cleanly, they were in a good spot. Down the backside that's where this horse can get a little tough and I was hoping we'd get a little 47 and change. But Mike he just sat on him, he was doing it so easily, I saw 46 and four I said, 'well, I think I could live with that. I always thought he could be a super horse, we'll find out today', but at the quarter pole I could tell he was just still cruising, just doing it easy. I just feel fortunate that I have this horse in my barn. My horse that ran second (Medina Spirit), he's a really nice horse and I felt bad I had to run him against him, but they need these races and I didn't want to ship yet so I'm just happy for the China Horse Club. It's nice to come out here, it feels a little festive today watching these good horses run.”

Life Is Good was made the 7-1 favorite among individual betting choices in the GI Kentucky Derby future wager pool that closed Feb. 14. As of Saturday evening he was the 4-1 public pick in the pool set to close Sunday evening. He is now tied with last Saturday's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Greatest Honour (Tapit) atop the GI Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 60 points.

Saturday, Santa Anita
SAN FELIPE S.-GII, $301,000, Santa Anita, 3-6, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:42.18, ft.
1–LIFE IS GOOD, 122, c, 3, by Into Mischief
                1st Dam: Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor
                2nd Dam: Bonnie Blue Flag, by Mineshaft
                3rd Dam: Tap Your Feet, by Dixieland Band
($525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC and CHC INC.;
B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Mike E.
Smith. $180,000. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
'TDN Rising Star'. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*. Click
for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Medina Spirit, 122, c, 3, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by
Brilliant Speed. ($1,000 Ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20
OBSOPN). O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Gail Rice (FL); T-Bob
Baffert. $60,000.
3–Dream Shake, 120, c, 3, Twirling Candy–Even Song, by Street
Cry (Ire). ($32,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP; $75,000 2yo '20 OBSAPR).
O-Exline-Border Racing LLC, SAF Racing and Hausman,
Richard; B-Dunwoody Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. $36,000.
'TDN Rising Star'
Margins: 8, 2 1/4, 3 1/4. Odds: 0.50, 3.30, 8.70.
Also Ran: Roman Centurian, The Great One, None Above the Law, Govenor's Party. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

Pedigree Notes:

After being perched on various stages of the Derby trail the past few years with luminaries like champions Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}), and West Coast (Flatter), breeders Gary and Mary West are back this year in a big way with last month's GII San Vicente S. winner Concert Tour (Street Sense)–who they still own–and Life Is Good, both undefeated, and both 'TDN Rising Stars'.

Life Is Good also has the nation's hottest sire going for him in Into Mischief, whose 90 black-type winners and 37 graded winners include last year's Horse of the Year Authentic. The Spendthrift sire currently leads the 2021 North American rankings by earnings, black-type horses, and graded winners. Life Is Good's broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, is also one of the best in the business with 108 stakes winners out of his daughters. Five stakes winners (and 12 stakes performers) are specifically by Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare, including MGISW Practical Joke.

Life Is Good's dam, Beach Walk, who sold as a $435,000 Keeneland September yearling, has a 2020 filly by Blame and was bred back to Candy Ride (Arg). Beach Walk's dam, SW & MGISP Bonnie Blue Flag (Mineshaft), sold for $1.5 million at Fasig-Tipton in 2011, but had dropped to just $15,000 at Keeneland in 2019. Bonnie Blue Flag's fourth dam, Court Circuit (Royal Vale), produced MGSWs Honorable Miss (Damascus), whose name is still honored with a graded race at Saratoga, and Bailjumper (Damascus), who still appears in pedigrees as the broodmare sire of super stallion Medaglia d'Oro.

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