Using History to Handicap the 2020 Kentucky Derby

Like many things in 2020, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is going to look a little (or a lot) different this year. The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the postponement of the race from May 2 (the fabled “First Saturday in May”) until Sept. 5 (the alliterative, but historically jarring “First Saturday in September”). The race will be run without fans, and a few horses who would have been prominent contenders in May are no longer part of the equation.

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2020 Kentucky Derby Data: How Fast the Contenders Finished

The Kentucky Derby is a handicapping challenge unlike any other. It’s the only race in North America where bettors must choose between 20 lightly-raced 3-year-olds traveling a testing 1 1/4-mile distance. It’s a recipe for surprising outcomes, as was the case in 2019, when 65.20-1 longshot Country House was elevated to victory via disqualification.

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