Tag: Fridays UK free racing tips

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Stats

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

Back-to-Back Winners: While rare, it has been done by Al Boum Photo (2019/20) and Galopin Des Champs (2023/24).
The 8-Year-Old Peak: 8-year-olds have the best strike rate in the last decade.
Supplemented Success: Inothewayurthinkin broke a long-standing trend last year by becoming the first supplemented horse to win.
Course Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won at least once previously at the Cheltenham Festival.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Inothewayurthinkin (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Mark Walsh)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He is the defending champion and, at 8 years old, he is in the physical prime for a repeat. His victory last year was no fluke; he travelled best and stayed strongest. Crucially, while he won on “Soft” last year, his trainer has always maintained that better ground allows him to use his tactical speed more effectively.
Verdict: The horse they all have to beat. He has the course form, the rating (178), and the proven stamina. He is the rightful statistical favourite to join the elite club of back-to-back winners.

2. Gaelic Warrior (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 9/10. If there is a “speed horse” to challenge the champion on Good ground, it is him. An 8-year-old with a rating of 175, his jumping is much straighter than it used to be. He has won at the Festival twice and his Savills Chase win proved he stays 3 miles.
Verdict: The primary challenger. On faster ground, his high cruising speed could put the field under pressure earlier than usual, testing Inothewayurthinkin’s ability to “bridge the gap” late on.

3. Grey Dawning (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 8/10. An 8-year-old rated 170. He won the Turners last year and the King George this season. He is the definition of a “Cheltenham horse”—he loves the New Course and the uphill finish.
Verdict: The best British hope. He is incredibly tough, but statistically, he might lack the pure “gear” that Inothewayurthinkin and Gaelic Warrior possess on a sounder surface.

4. Firefox (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 7/10. A 7-year-old on the upgrade. He has been aimed at this all season and fits the profile of a younger horse coming into the race with a point to prove.
Verdict: A major each-way player. He is less exposed than the top three, though he needs a career-best performance to dethrone the reigning champion.

5. L’Homme Presse (Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch)

Trends Fit: 6/10. Now 11, the stats are firmly against him. However, he was a gallant fourth in this race last year and remains one of the best jumpers in the business.
Verdict: Likely to give his all but should find the younger trio too sharp on Good ground.

 

Revised Order of Preference

1. Inothewayurthinkin (The defending champion; statistically perfect for a repeat)
2. Gaelic Warrior (The biggest threat on fast ground; massive engine)
3. Grey Dawning (Best British contender; a King George winner with elite course form)
4. Firefox (Improving 7-year-old from a top Irish yard)
5. L’Homme Presse (Classy veteran, but age is the major trend negative)