Who is Most Likely to be Leading Freshman Sire of 2023?

With the 2-year-old sales season having kicked off and the first 'baby' races of the year ready to get going in a few weeks, laser focus will be placed on the up-and-coming first-crop stallions. Rightfully so, as we all hunt in earnest for the next breakout young sire. Could there possibly be another Gun Runner in the freshman class of 2023?

A total of 16 young guns in North America have 50 or more current 2-year-olds resulting from their first covers in 2020. A great many more have fewer than 50, but numbers beget opportunities. The leading freshman sire of 2023 is likely to be one of those 16.

It's also a good bet that Spendthrift Farm may repeat Bolt d'Oro's 2022 success as the leading freshman sire, as four of the top five freshmen by number of 2-year-olds stand at the Central Kentucky Farm.

The 16 newcomers are concentrated in Kentucky, with one each also in New York and Florida. What almost all have in common is plenty of sire power behind them. Including two freshmen by Curlin and two by Into Mischief, all of the sires of these leading 16 freshmen have thrown Grade I winners themselves, but not all of their sire sons have done the same.

Conformation, dam side, and athleticism of the new 2-year-olds aside, let's examine the hard evidence based solely on elite performance of other sons at stud by the same sires. Which of these 'Sweet 16' is most likely to find success based on how other sons by their sires have fared?

Audible and Maximus Mischief, both by Into Mischief, standing for $25,000 at WinStar Farm, 150 2-year-olds (Audible), and for $7,500 at Spendthrift Farm, 135 2-year-olds (Maximus Mischief)

It's impossible to overlook Into Mischief, who is coming off his fourth general sire championship. He's got an embarrassment of riches with a plethora of up-and-coming young sire sons in the next few years, including Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun, as well as four-time GISW and Breeders' Cup winner Life Is Good. Getting the first jump are GI Florida Derby winner Audible and GII Remsen S. winner Maximus Mischief. Into Mischief's first major sire sons are Goldencents and Practical Joke, both of whom have already sired a U.S. GISW. In addition, Practical Joke has hot Derby prospect and MGSW Practical Move. Audible was particularly popular at OBS March, with his top two each working in :10 and bringing $500,000 and $425,000, respectively.

 

And the second freshman by Into Mischief for 2023:

 

Catalina Cruiser, by Union Rags, standing for $15,000 at Lane's End, 110 2-year-olds

Holding the distinction of being the fourth generation of his sire line (Union Rags-Dixie Union-Dixieland Band) to stand at Lane's End, five-time graded winner Catalina Cruiser could be the first big-time sire son for Union Rags. The latter's only other sire son in a major market is Free Drop Billy, whose first-crop sophomores have not yet broken through on the graded stage. Catalina Cruiser's top 2-year-old specimen at OBS March breezed in :21 and brought $400,000 post sale.

 

Catholic Boy, by More Than Ready, standing for $15,000 at Claiborne Farm, 104 2-year-olds

Any horse that can win the GI Belmont Derby on grass in July and the GI Travers S. on dirt just over a month later has to be taken seriously. The late More Than Ready was the dual hemisphere phenom whose sire sons include Australia's late Sebring (Aus), sire of at least eight Group 1 winners; the exported Verrazano with one U.S. Grade I winner and two Chilean Group 1 winners; Gimmethegreenlight (Aus) with six Group 1 winners spread between Australia and South Africa; Daredevil, whose first-crop exploits included both a Classic winner and a GI Kentucky Oaks winner; and Custom for Carlos, who stands in Louisiana and came up with a U.S. Grade I winner despite averaging just 45 foals a year.

 

Demarchelier (GB), by Dubawi (Ire), standing for $5,000 at Claiborne Farm, 70 2-year-olds

Even as the first known son of Dubawi at stud in the U.S., GSW Demarchelier will not suffer from pedigree anonymity as Dubawi is arguably the top sire in Europe. At least five of his sire sons have been responsible for Grade I or Group 1 winners on their own: Al Kazeem (GB), Makfi (GB), New Bay (GB), Night of Thunder (Ire), and Poet's Voice (GB).

 

Enticed, by Medaglia d'Oro, standing for $5,000 at Darley, 103 2-year-olds

Like Curlin, Into Mischief, and War Front, who also have freshmen sons with first juveniles this year, Medaglia d'Oro is one of the elite stallions of Kentucky with the sustained success of umpteen Grade I winners to his credit. Among his sons, two have sired Grade I winners to date, with Violence holding the top spot as far and away his best sire son so far. Violence has four GISWs, including current Derby favorite Forte. Medaglia d'Oro also has Astern (Aus) with a Group 1 winner in Australia and Bolt d'Oro as last year's top freshman who has not yet broken through with a Grade I winner. Enticed himself was precocious, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and placing in the GI Champagne S. at two.

 

Flameaway, by Scat Daddy, standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 116 2-year-olds

MGSW Flameaway's late sire ignited early with his first runners and his success just magnified after his death at age 11. Among the late Scat Daddy's sons to sire a Group 1 winner to date is his undisputed sire son leader No Nay Never, as well as the classy Caravaggio. And then there's Triple Crown winner Justify, who gives the sense he's knocking on the Grade I door after his first American and Australian crops yielded five graded/group winners.

Leofric, by Candy Ride (Arg), standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 56 2-year-olds

After the success of Gun Runner, Candy Ride sons are a hot commodity and he will have a steady pipeline of sons with first runners in the coming years, including champion Game Winner and MGISW Vekoma (both with first yearlings this year), as well as GISW Rock Your World (first weanlings this year). GI Clark H. winner Leofric is the early bird among the group that follows Candy Ride's two sire sons who have achieved out-of-this-world success: Gun Runner and Twirling Candy. The former, with only two crops to race, has sired a spectacular six GISWs and another five Grade I performers. The latter is no slouch either, accounting for seven Grade I winners from his eight crops to race. Both also have sired Classic winners. Clearly, when Candy Ride hits, he hits big.

Mitole, by Eskendereya, standing for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 158 2-year-olds

A champion and MGISW who helped contribute to his dam being crowned Broodmare of the Year for 2021, Mitole is one of three freshmen who are charting new territory for their own sires by attempting to become their first established son in the sire ranks. Eskendereya was exported to Japan in 2015 when Mitole was just a foal. The stallion's only other known sire son in the U.S. is Mor Spirit, who stands alongside Mitole at Spendthrift and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores). Buyers at OBS March liked what they saw: the top three Mitole 2-year-olds all worked in :10 and brought $350,000, $325,000, and $300,000, respectively.

 

Omaha Beach, by War Front, standing for $30,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 138 2-year-olds

The brilliant Omaha Beach, a triple Grade I winner, looks every bit the part of a stallion who's going to make it. No matter how you look at it–whether it's his sire, the bottom side of his pedigree, his own race performance, his first yearlings–he's hard to fault. Among his first 2-year-olds at OBS March was a $690,000 filly who worked in :9 4/5. The venerable War Front, sire of a surplus of Grade I winners, has had three sons who have made it to the big stage as sires thus far: Declaration of War with Grade I/Group 1 winners in the U.S., Australia, France, and Canada; The Factor with two U.S. GISWs; and Hit It a Bomb with an Argentinean Group 1 winner. Omaha Beach and Classic winner War of Will (first yearlings this year) are among War Front's top sire prospects yet.

 

Preservationist, by Arch, standing for $10,000 at Airdrie Stud, 76 2-year-olds

GI Woodward S. winner Preservationist and fellow GISW Instilled Regard (whose first foals are currently yearlings) are the last top horses by the late Arch, who died in 2016 just prior to the breeding season, to go to stud. Arch has had two sons sire GISWs: the late Archarcharch, whose last crops were in Korea, and Blame, who has sired five GISWs and counting.

 

Solomini and Vino Rosso, both by Curlin, standing for $6,500 at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, 78 2-year-olds (Solomini), and for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 178 2-year-olds (Vino Rosso)

Is there any limit to Curlin's prowess as a sire? Last year, he topped his own sire and grandsire (Smart Strike and Mr. Prospector)–who tied with a dozen other stallions by siring two Eclipse winners in a single year–when he made history as the only sire to ever have three individual Eclipse winners in a single year. Like Candy Ride and Into Mischief, he's got a number of sons with first crops to the races on the horizon. This year, it's his champion and GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso and his MGISP Solomini who will send their first juveniles to the races. Curlin has no fewer than four sons who have sired Grade I winners: Good Magic (whose first crop is just three this year), Connect and Keen Ice (whose first crops are four), and Palace Malice. Both Vino Rosso and Solomini had a number of first juveniles at OBS March: Vino Rosso's top was a :9 4/5 breezer who hammered for $550,000 and Solomini's best worked in :10 and brought $200,000.

 

St Patrick's Day, by Pioneerof the Nile, standing for $3,500 at Journeyman Stallions, 71 2-year-olds

A maiden winner at two and graded-placed at three, St Patrick's Day has the lightest race record of this group, but he's a full-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Although the late Pioneerof the Nile has a number of very useful sons at stud, American Pharoah is the first who has broken through with any Grade 1/Group 1 winners. He has a half-dozen of those to his name.

World of Trouble, by Kantharos, standing for $5,000 at Hill 'n' Dale Farm, 89 2-year-olds

A wickedly fast GISW on both dirt and turf, World of Trouble might be the biggest wild card among the freshmen sire ranks in terms of sire power. The only other son of Kantharos at stud in a major market is Bucchero, who stands in Florida and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores).

 

Yoshida (Jpn), by Heart's Cry (Jpn), standing for $10,000 at WinStar Farm, 101 2-year-olds

A Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, Yoshida is the only known son of Sunday Silence's Heart's Cry standing in Kentucky. Among Heart's Cry's sire sons is Just a Way (Jpn), who has a 2-year-old champion and Group 1 winner in Japan. Heart's Cry just passed away Mar. 9.

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Body & Soul: Another Freshmen Future Book

Following the completion of the last major 2-year-old sale of the season in each of the past three years, we looked at the potential success of the freshmen sires by creating a handicapping event, noting that the freshmen sires of each year were very competitive bunches, i.e., many of them were capable of rising to the top five or so of their contemporaries after a few crops had raced.

With the aberration in sales dates last year caused by the COVID-19 situation behind us, this season's major sales proceeded as traditionally scheduled, from March through June. Now that the graduates of those sales are starting to race some observers might infer that we will prejudice our picks toward some stallions that have already had a few impressive winners.

To answer that: 1) Fewer than two dozen graduates of the sales sired by freshmen have started thus far; 2): Our task is to lay odds on how the offspring of these sires are likely to compete over the long term, not to identify the Leading Freshman Sire–although both outcomes could be the case in some years.

We concentrated on freshmen of 2021 that had at least 10 of their offspring breeze at the major 2-year-old sales. While we look at pedigrees in context of commercial appeal, we utilize only video and biomechanical data to assist us in our prognostications. The video data details how their offspring compared as individuals to all the other 2-year-olds which breezed regardless of their sires. The components of this data are included in DataTrack's BreezeFigs™ service which is partially based on breeze time, stride length, and efficiency of angulation. Since 2006, this product has been utilized at sales by buyers and sellers, as well as being offered every day as a handicapping tool at Daily Racing Form's website.

We also took into consideration the results of stallion projection profiles which were compiled in 2018 when these horses went to stud. These profiles are based on biomechanical measurements and the probabilities of these stallions siring race-efficient foals from books of biomechanically balanced mares.

Arrogate | Asuncion Piñeyrua

We also took into consideration the biomechanical profiles of their offspring taken at the 2021 2-year-old and the 2020 yearling sales.

As mentioned, we limited our interest to stallions for which we have biomechanical data which also had at least 10 offspring that breezed at the major sales–that came down to 17 that began their careers in Kentucky (one, Arrogate, has since died), plus one in New York. In addition, we separated each sire's offspring by sex and in the process discovered that while a few had solid data for both colts and fillies, several others were stronger for one sex. However, several, including some with huge crops represented, returned disappointing results for both sexes.

Fifteen of the Kentucky stallions were separated into three groups according to stud fees that were in effect when they retired to stud–ironically, there are five in each of those groups. Theoretically, they are competing against each other in “races” according to a hypothetical condition book. In addition, Arrogate was set apart because he left only one crop behind, and the other, Mohaymen, entered stud for $7,500 and was grouped with Union Jackson, who stands in New York.

Based on our dataset, which has more than half-dozen components, what follows is our “Future Book” on how each of these stallions stack up as the best long-term prospects within their individual groups.

Group 1 (Stud Fee=$25,000 Plus, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                  Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              5-to-2                  Lord Nelson (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-2                  Practical Joke (Into Mischief)

∙              3-to-1                  Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              6-to-1                  Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile)

Comment: Gun Runner was a heck of a runner and despite that he had fewer 2-year-old representatives than any other in this group, this guy delivered all the promise his biomechanical profile suggested he possessed–and along with Mastery gives his sire a super shot of continuing on his path as a serious sire of sires. Indeed, this group is so close together on the datasets that it may take a couple of years before one or two of them can shake loose from the pack–or battle each other through their lifetimes. Practical Joke was a talking-sire at the sales and they are off and running fast. Lord Nelson popped up as a bit of surprise and adds credence to the belief that his sire left us too soon (viz Tapit, California Chrome, and see American Freedom in Group 3 as well). Classic Empire has a strong chance of moving up as his crops mature.

Group 2 ($12,500 to $20,000, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                   Midnight Storm (Pioneerof the Nile)

∙              5-to-1                   Astern (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro)

∙              8-to-1                   Connect (Curlin)

∙              10-to-1                 Cupid (Tapit)

∙              15-to-1                 Bal a Bali (Brz) (Put It Back)

Midnight Storm | Taylor Made Stallions/Amy Lanigan

Comment: Irony here is that Midnight Storm, whose dataset is strong across the board, has a shot at topping off this entire crop and along with Classic Empire solidify their sire as another who left us too soon. Astern (Aus) is another example of his sire's ability to get serious prospects in two hemispheres and his dataset is strong. Connect and Cupid will probably not be contending for Leading Freshmen Sire honors but when they go further, they could emerge sharply, Bal a Bali (Brz) is his sire's first shot at proving his exportation was a premature event, and he has the goods to send them out early.

Group 3 ($10,000, Kentucky)

∙              3-to-1                   American Freedom (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-1                   Gormley (Malibu Moon)

∙              8-to-1                   Unified (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              15-to-1                 Keen Ice (Curlin)

∙              15-to-1                 Klimt (Quality Road)

American Freedom | Sarah Andrew

Comment: American Freedom was consistent in sending out offspring that were consistently good performers on the track–watch out Lord Nelson! Gormley and Unified sent out huge numbers of breezers who look like they might get runners that can perform at any distance. Keen Ice and Klimt are likely to need to wait to see their kids score big time, but that could happen toward the end of the year.

Group 4 (Below $10,000, Kentucky & Regional)

∙              5-to-2                   Mohaymen (Tapit) (Kentucky)

∙              5-to-2                   Union Jackson (Union Rags) (New York)

Comment: Everyone should keep in mind that Mohaymen was a terrific early juvenile, so his stud fee may look like a bargain soon. Union Jackson comes from a very clever outfit and more of them came out than is usually the case for a freshman not based in Florida, and they impressed.

And then there is Arrogate. Suffice it to say that if had more than one crop he'd be up there challenging Gun Runner for long-term honors. We would not be surprised if he battles for the lead at the end of this year, thus underscoring what might be a growing legacy for Unbridled's Song–his best siring sons were, as they said in other times, the last of the wine.

There you go, place your bets!

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net).

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