Forte | Horse Racing Free Tips

Mike Repole Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Four days after his Forte (Violence) won the GII Fountain of Youth S. in his 3-year-old debut, co-owner Mike Repole was still beaming. At this point, Forte's lead-up to the GI Kentucky Derby has been perfect. There have been no hiccups and his race in the Fountain of Youth checked every conceivable box. So what did Repole, who owns the horse in partnership with Vinnie Viola, think? We had Repole join us on the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland to find out. Repole was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

“The script you write never works out,” Repole said. “But the way things have turned out with Forte, I couldn't have written that script any better. We just got his Ragozin number, which was a 7 3/4, which was the lowest number of his career off a four-month layoff. So it's always a promising sign. You don't really know who the competition was in the race. But he hadn't raced in four months and all those horses had starts either four weeks ago or eight weeks ago. So everything really worked out.”

That Repole and Viola have a horse like Forte is no accident. They have spent millions at the sales acquiring dozens of horses. Forte, who cost $110,000, was one of 43 yearlings they bought at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Over the last two years at Keeneland, they have spent $30 million on 75 horses. Repole acknowledged that their way of attacking the sales only works if you can come up with a couple of stars.

“When you buy 100 horses, if you can get 2% of them to be Grade I winners, you're going to pay for the whole crop,” Repole said. “Now, it sounds easy, but you need to find a Nest and you need a Forte. It is very difficult. But I think I play at all different levels. And listen, I don't want to give away a secret here, but. I'm aggressive.”

Repole made some news during the interview, revealing that his preference is that Forte run as a 4-year-old. He said he would not enter into an agreement for Forte with a stud farm unless they agreed to give him an option to run the horse next year.

“I have to have an option to run him at four, whether we do or not,” he said. “It has to be that I get to choose, and everybody knows that's the plan. Let's be honest, we don't know if he's going to or not. In this sport, we don't even know that he's going to have a next start. But I have to have that option.”

As for Nest (Curlin), the 3-year-old filly champion of 2022 that Repole owns along with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Repole said she will make her 4-year-old debut in the GI La Troienne S. on April 5 at Churchill Downs.

“We gave her time off and she's grown up and she's developed,” Repole said. “We all know what happens with Curlin's between three and four. It's hard to think this way, but she might even be better this year.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, The Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley took a look back at a big weekend of racing that included the Fountain of Youth S., the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita H. and a look ahead to the GII Tampa Bay Derby. The subject of Alex Canchari's suicide brought about an important discussion of how jockeys best deal with mental health issues. Canchari's death came six week after jockey Avery Whisman also took his own life. Cadman, a former rider, pointed out that both jockeys were not actively riding at the time of their deaths and said that down time can be difficult for any rider. Finley raised the issue of whether or not it's time to allow jockeys to ride at slightly heavier weights, but Cadman and Moss both maintained that would not solve any problems.

The post Mike Repole Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Forte Takes the Blame to Stay Strong

With commercial sires nowadays represented by such enormous cavalries, it's unsurprising that they should encounter random statistical clusters. These tend to even themselves out, so that a stallion that “hits form” with a sudden spate of stakes performers will also endure barren spells that naturally receive rather less attention. What every farm covets, then, is for a horse to get on a roll while there are still mares out there with mating decisions pending for this spring–and there's no better way to do that than making some noise on the Classic trail.

In that context, it was a remarkable weekend. Violence accounted for the dashing winners of two Derby rehearsals; while Practical Joke, who added one for himself, followed through with two other stakes winners, one of which banked 50 starting points for the GI Kentucky Oaks. On that front, however, Girvin was the man of the hour, making a double play with trial winners on opposite coasts. Less feted, meanwhile, but perhaps most significant in the longer term, was another stellar weekend for Blame as an emerging broodmare sire.
Among all these, the obvious imperative is to consider the genetic wiring that must sustain Forte (Violence) as he stretches out in distance. Before doing so, however, it's worth acknowledging that each of these stallions has a wider momentum than mere coincidence.

Girvin had already announced himself so persuasively, in launching talented juveniles like Damon's Mound last year, that he earned an immediate transfer from Florida to Kentucky. Faiza made a key contribution to that breakout, as a spectacular pinhook ($90,000 yearling/$725,000 juvenile) who then won a Grade I on her second start, and she continued her flawless progress in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. on Sunday. Her success was rather more anticipated than that of Dorth Vader the previous day, but a filly homebred at $7,500 has now won four of six starts since stumbling on debut: a maiden, two stakes and now the GII Davona Dale S. Girvin's precocious stock, then, is consolidating in most encouraging fashion–especially given that he has so far been working with material commensurate with his opening fee. Dorth Vader, for instance, is out of a Yonaguska mare who won under a $5,000 tag in Alberta. It's going to be fun to see what Girvin can do with his upgrade at Airdrie.

Practical Joke belongs to the previous intake, meaning that he has had to deal throughout with a fairly epoch-making inconvenience in Gun Runner. As a dual Grade I-winning juvenile by into Into Mischief, he secured significant numerical opportunity at Ashford and has already had a couple of hundred individual starters. But he's taking the chance he was given, reliably slipstreaming Gun Runner in their class and already indebted to this second crop for a first Grade I success in Chocolate Gelato's Frizette last fall.

The flamboyant talent of Practical Move is offering to take his sire to another level, albeit we'll have to see quite how far he can stretch his speed. That kind of question has obviously been answered quite brilliantly by Into Mischief himself, since the elevation of his mares, and Practical Joke is making a promising early “Move” in the intensifying competition among his sons. Little Vic–from Practical Joke's debut crop–is certainly trading unapologetically in speed, and continued his fertile winter campaign with a career best in the GIII Tom Fool H. But Shidabhuti will be another looking to extend, having pried open an Oaks gate in maintaining her unbeaten start in the Busher S.

Blame is obviously a proven operator by this stage, and we've long admired his black-type output at ratios that stack up well against several more expensive covers. Indeed, this spring he has Derby and Oaks contenders himself in Litigate and Wet Paint. As a broodmare sire, however, he has barely started–and is rapidly opening up exciting horizons.

With his beautifully shaped pedigree, lining up his fourth dam Thong against his sire Arch's third dam Courtly Dee (both by sons of Nasrullah, in Nantallah and Never Bend), I've always said Blame looked a great option for someone who wouldn't mind retaining a filly. And his daughters arguably gave us both the leading juveniles of 2022, in Forte himself and Loggins (Ghostzapper); while two others produced sophomore stakes winners to sandwich the champion's comeback win last Saturday. Danse Macabre (Army Mule) won the GIII Herecomesthebride S. on the same card, while Botanical (Medaglia d'Oro) collected 20 Oaks points in the Cincinnati Trophy at Turfway. Note this well: Forte, Loggins, Danse Macabre and Botanical are all the very first foals to represent their dams on the track.

Botanical is bred on a cross akin to the one that gave us Forte, who is by a son of her sire. But while Medaglia d'Oro has long been a byword for versatility, it's conceivable that Violence may need Forte to summon the two-turn influences channelled through his dam to see out the punishing test awaiting on the first Saturday in May.
In winning the GII Fountain of Youth S., Forte was redressing his sire's narrow defeat (by the subsequent Derby winner) in the same race 10 years previously.

Medaglia d'Oro | Darley

True to the Medaglia d'Oro legacy, Violence did prove adaptable even in the span of a career that came to a premature end that day, having won the GI Hollywood Futurity on synthetics after making his name on dirt in New York. He made a flying start at Hill 'n' Dale, missing the 2017 freshman's laurels by cents (to Overanalyze!) and rewarded with 214 mares at a fee hiked from $15,000 to $25,000. With his debut crop thriving as sophomores, he proved all the rage at the yearling sales in 2018 and was raised further to $40,000. But he then mustered just two stakes winners in 2019, sending his yearling average plummeting from over $130,000 to barely $45,000. With his fee retreating to $25,000, he then turned things round with three Grade I winners in 2020, from three different crops. He was back in the game, albeit that hump in the road will tell in a somewhat diminished juvenile footprint this year (graduating from his 2020 book, which slipped to 86 mares).

Overall, after one or two wild swings early in his career, it feels safe to say that Violence has completed a process of consolidation with the emergence of Forte. Always a glossy physical, he's now up to $50,000 and already has Volatile at stud to heighten the sense that the ageing Medaglia d'Oro has belatedly organised his legacy. For quite a while, the dynasty had seemed insecure, with no heir quite matching the status of his daughters Rachel Alexandra and Songbird, or his gelded son Golden Sixty. But now he has Violence competing with a champion freshman in Bolt d'Oro, with Higher Power starting out too. Certainly anyone who consecutively replays the Fountain of Youth and then the GIII Gotham S. will observe a common swagger to Forte and Raise Cain. But that kind of natural speed is consistent with the races won by their sire's most accomplished stock to date: GI Woody Stephens S., GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt S., GI Bing Crosby S.

In vividly diversifying the legacy of turf monster El Prado (Ire), Medaglia d'Oro can also include sprint speed among his variegated resume: think Astern (Aus), Vancouver (Aus), Warrior's Reward. Quite apart from his sire-line, however, the seeding of Violence's own family also has a strong flavor of chlorophyll: his first two dams are by transatlantic influences in Gone West and Storm Cat, and the next two are by venerable European Classic influences in Blushing Groom (Fr) and Nijinsky. How curious, if these names should end up helping to create a legacy on dirt for Medaglia d'Oro.

With the help of their classic qualities, this well-known family has achieved that elusive balance between speed and stamina. Violence's third dam is Hall of Famer Sky Beauty, whose own dam was Dayjur's Grade I-winning half-sister Maplejinsky, their mother in turn being champion sprinter Gold Beauty. Bearing in mind that you'll also find Maplejinsky as third dam of Point Of Entry (Dynaformer), this maternal background should certainly help Violence stretch the speed he has imparted to his best stock; and he does have a Grade I winner over 10 furlongs in Argentina. Nonetheless it is a comfort for those in Forte's camp for the Derby to know that he can also draw on the resources of his dam Queen Caroline.

Blame | Claiborne Farm

Blame himself obviously offers her a bedrock. Besides extending the doughty Arch-Roberto brand, he also introduces more Nijinsky as sire of his grandam–whose celebrated mother, Special was of course by another sturdy influence in Forli (Arg). Queen Caroline is out of a Forestry mare, but the next dam is by Seattle Slew and soon tapers through three generations of Phipps-Wheatley royalty to a sister of Busher (and then to the Colonel Bradley matriarch Baby League and her legendary dam La Troienne {Fr}). Queen Caroline herself showed plenty of talent, at around a mile on turf, winning four black-type races. A couple of those were restricted to Virginia-breds, but she only missed a graded stakes podium by a neck. (Remarkably, she was the very first purchase made by Amy Moore–as a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling–to found South Gate Farm.)
Queen Caroline's dam was a sharp sort, promptly adding a listed sprint to her maiden win at two, but more importantly she was out of a half-sister to the increasingly important Storm Cat mare Contrive: not only dam of champion juvenile filly Folklore (Tiznow) (herself responsible for the mother of Japanese star Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) but also second dam of Essential Quality (Tapit).

This all feels like a pretty strong foil to the speed hitherto trademarked by Violence. A similar exercise will be necessary, incidentally, with Raise Cain. He was bred by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds from a Lemon Drop Kid mare who had won a sprint maiden in a light career, more significantly a half-sister to GI Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song). The latter's daughter Unique Bella also had elite talent but remember that she operated very effectively round a single turn, despite being by Tapit.

So we'll have to see how the profile of Violence evolves as these sons seek to adapt their flair to the demands of the Triple Crown trail. Raise Cain certainly exhibited a full armory on Saturday: through the race he exuded contempt for the idea that the traffic around him might be running fast, and then devoured open ground like a horse eager for more. Admittedly his earlier work now seems to require some imaginative reinterpretation, whereas Forte is obviously a proven star already.

As has been well documented by now, as a $110,000 yearling Forte lurked an awfully long way down the list of 2021 purchases by Repole Stable and St Elias. (Certainly it was only a marginal reward for his $80,000 pinhookers, though Reiley McDonald could comfort himself with a trifecta of Eaton graduates in the GI Hopeful S.) Regardless, Violence has now put two sets of connections exactly where thousands of others had dreamed of being when the class of 2020 slithered into the straw. But if it turns out that none of them can outstay Forte, we know who else can share the Blame.

The post Forte Takes the Blame to Stay Strong appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Forte Tabbed as Morning Line Favorite for KD Future Wager Pool 6

Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable's champion and last weekend's GII Fountain of Youth S. winner Forte (Violence) was tabbed as the 4-1 overall morning line betting favorite for Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which is set to open at noon on Friday. The pool will run concurrently with the first and only pool for the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager.

In addition to $2 win and exacta betting, an Oaks/Derby Future Double will be offered. The Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes Sunday at 6 p.m. EST while the Oaks Future Wager will close 30 minutes later at 6:30 p.m. EST.

The complete field for Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (with morning line odds): #1 Angel of Empire (Classic Empire), 30-1; #2 Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo), 10-1; #3 Arabian Lion (Justify), 50-1; #4 Blazing Sevens (Good Magic), 40-1; #5 Cagliostro (Upstart), 99-1; #6 Cairo (IRE) (Quality Road), 50-1; #7 Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird), 99-1; #8 Classic Catch (Classic Empire) 50-1; #9 Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}), 30-1; #10 Congruent (Tapit), 80-1; #11 Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief); #12 Denington (Gun Runner), 80-1; #13 Disarm (Gun Runner), 99-1; #14 Forte; #15 Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}), 20-1; #16 General Jim (Into Mischief), 80-1; #17 Hejazi (Bernardini), 40-1; #18 Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), 30-1; #19 Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro), 30-1; #20 Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), 50-1; #21 Litigate (Blame), 50-1; #22 Mage (Good Magic), 80-1; #23 Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro), 50-1; #24 Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), 50-1; #25 National Treasure (Quality Road), 30-1; #26 Perriere (Jpn) (Henny Hughes), 50-1; #27 Practical Move (Practical Joke), 8-1; #28 Raise Cain (Violence), 50-1; #29 Red Route One (Gun Runner), 40-1; #30 Reincarnate (Good Magic), 30-1; #31 Rocket Can (Into Mischief), 40-1; #32 Skinner (Curlin), 40-1; #33 Sun Thunder (Into Mischief), 99-1; #34 Tapit Trice (Tapit), 15-1; #35 Tapit's Conquest (Tapit), 80-1; #36 Two Eagles River (Cloud Computing), 80-1: #37 Two Phil's (Hard Spun), 80-1; #38 Verifying (Justify), 50-1; #39 Victory Formation (Tapwrit), 80-1; and #40 “All Other 3-Year-Olds”, 5-1.

In the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, champion Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) was made the 8-1 morning line favorite in the field of 39 individual betting interests plus an option for “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” from the 2020 foal crop that were not listed.

The $3 million GI Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve will be constest Saturday, May 6 and the $1.25 million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks will run one day prior on Friday, May 5.

More information, Brisnet past performances and real-time odds on both wagers will be available online before the pool opens Friday. The sixth and final pool for the KDFW will open on Mar. 30.

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The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin

A trio of graded stakes preps in Florida, California and New York yielded a reshuffled deck this past weekend as we edge within the two-month mark for the May 6 GI Kentucky Derby.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: Won GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 90.

'TDN Rising Star' and juvenile champ Forte muscles into the top spot for the first time based on his overall, six-race body of work as much as the powerhouse performance he delivered when romping in his first sophomore start, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

If you liked his athletic, win-from-any-spot tactics and head-of-the-stretch blast-offs at age two, you had to love the way this son of Violence prowled around the short-stretch 1 1/16-mile configuration on Saturday, giving the impression he had the field at his mercy the entire trip while never being over-ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

From a numbers perspective, Forte's 98 Beyer Speed Figure does represent a two-point regression from the 100 he earned when winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile four months ago. But the visual image of this colt soaring home while geared down and never fully extended should trump any by-the-numbers concerns about whether he's moved forward since November.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had stated before the start of 2023 that Forte would likely take a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race being either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Forte is now undefeated over both of those surfaces, lending an additional edge, although trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that he is leaning toward the Florida Derby as his preference.

2) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544,275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is one of three horses ranked within the Top 12 to have only two starts by the first week in March. But unlike the other two colts ranked deeper down the list, his whopping auction price ($2.3 million OBSAPR sales topper after initially selling for $250,000 at KEESEP), two scintillating wins and outsized public expectations will put quite a bit more pressure on him to win the Derby off a schedule that trainer Tim Yakteen said will only include one more prep.

The race spacing will be additionally unconventional, because if Arabian Knight starts next in either the GI Santa Anita Derby or the GI Arkansas Derby as expected, that will leave him with a base of just three lifetime races spread relatively far apart (November, January, April) before attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

The question will come down to whether his raw talent can overcome what looks like a very narrow foundation. But right now, if you lined up the dozen horses on this list in the gate, you wouldn't get much argument against Arabian Knight being the “speed of the speed.” And considering that speed-centric horses who raced either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last nine Derbies, that trend tilts the tactical advantage in this colt's favor.

After unseasonably wet weather delayed Arabian Knight's training for more than 2 1/2 weeks, he was back on the Santa Anita work tab Saturday for the first time since Feb. 13, with a five-eighths move clocked in :59.20 (3/71).

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice looms as the legit favorite when entries get drawn on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Tampa Bay Derby.

This $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit brings an upward- trending 73-87-92 Beyer progression into his first two-turn try after eye-catching wins in two of three one-turn-miles at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. But he'll have to come off Lasix (used once, in his most recent Feb 4. Start) as he ventures into stakes company for the first time.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Derby five times, and it's also of note that despite having two horses ranked on this list who have already won over the Tampa surface this meet (Nos. 10 and 11), he is instead aiming them both for the GII Louisiana Derby in deference to sending Tapit Trice to Tampa.

Luis Saez, who has ridden Tapit Trice only once–in the colt's most recent start–will be aboard. To keep the mount, Saez had to make the difficult decision to vacate the same-day call this coming Saturday aboard the returning GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) in Oaklawn's GII Azeri S., a filly he has ridden in her last six races.

4) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Pierre Amestoy Jr, Leslie Amestoy & Roger K Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last start: Won GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) executed the biggest leapfrog of the season by emphatically winning Saturday's GII San Felipe S., going from unranked to No. 4 on this list.

Have to admit I wasn't initially wowed by his 10-1 win in the Dec. 17 GII Los Alamitos Futurity (88 Beyer) because that race gave off an aberrational vibe–the 2-5 favorite abruptly dropped back and finished last after an ideal stalking trip, and this son of Practical Joke scooted up the inside to pass a drifting, tiring pacemaker. But three months later, we saw a sturdier, more confident colt who looked dialed in the entire trip.

After minor brushing and bumping leaving the gate, jockey Ramon Vazquez carved out a sweet stalking spot, and Practical Move was unbothered by a rank horse to his outside on the first turn before responding to a rating hold, biding his time behind legit splits. He edged up incrementally to jointly attain second, but on the far bend, Practical Move was briefly hemmed in with nowhere to go at the fence and he lost momentum for several strides, regressing to fourth.

Vazquez remained patient and committed to his spot, and when the tired pacemaker drifted out to the four path at the quarter pole, Practical Move quickened on cue to win by 2 1/2 lengths with another inside stretch run (100 Beyer). This one, though, looked stronger and better composed than his previous winning move.

There have been 15 Derby qualifying stakes at 1 1/16 miles on dirt so far in 2022-23. Practical Move now owns the two fastest clockings–1:41.65 in the Los Al Futurity and 1:42.10 in the San Felipe.

5) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: Second in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20

Geaux Rocket Ride broke running and hounded the pacemaker through brisk fractions nearly every step of the trip in the San Felipe S. on Saturday. Despite having to shift inward and off the heels of tiring leaders at the head of the homestretch, this $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) still finished resolutely at the rail to end up 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Practical Move and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the third-place horse.

He was credited with a 96 Beyer for his stakes and two-turn debut, four points higher than his blitzing MSW win over six furlongs back on Jan. 29.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the Santa Anita Derby is likely next. “On the path we're talking [about], everything would have to be perfect, but he's a pretty good horse,” the understated Hall-of-Fame conditioner said.

6) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-2-2-0, $326,538. Last Start: Second GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40

This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) broke fluidly from post seven in the Fountain of Youth S., conceded the lead, then was a close-up fourth while three wide into the clubhouse turn. He methodically kept advancing his position while tucked between rivals on the backstretch, then was second out from the rail when the field fanned out four across the track at the top of the stretch.

Rocket Can got a touch tired but never stopped grinding away, and although no one in that stakes was in the same league as the winner, Forte, this colt landed second while upping his GIII Holy Bull S. winning Beyer by nine points, from 82 to 91.

“It was a good trip. I ended up where I wanted to be,” said jockey Junior Alvarado. “The only thing was on the backside we were putting a little bit of pressure. From [:24.05] the first part we had to speed it up to [:23.60] the second quarter. Normally we do that the other way around, but he was there.

“Every time I ride him, he's a different horse in the post parade, a different dimension. We're trying to figure it out. I just think he hasn't matured yet. He comes here and he's very playful. I don't think he's put it all together. I take that as a good thing. Hopefully when he puts it together we can gain a few more lengths,” Alvarado said.

7) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One still has to work on his lead-changing skills and he drops frighteningly far back off the pace. He's also never won on dirt. But you can see flashes that this still-learning chestnut “gets it” based on his last two races, which were runner-up efforts behind the Nos. 1 and 9 horses on this list in January and February stakes on the Oaklawn prep path.

With seven starts, experience over varied types of wet and dry footing, and a fairly obvious “longer-the-better” development arc, trainer Steve Asmussen said after the GII Rebel S. that Red Route One might try the 1 3/16-mile GII Louisiana Derby in his next race.

A Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Untapable, he's already racked up enough points to be seventh on the qualifying list. So long as he keeps coming close in major stakes, Red Route One wouldn't even have to win a sophomore prep to emerge as a plausible long shot in Louisville.

Like any deep closer, he'd be at the mercy of the pace and the luck of the trip. But it's not too hard to envision this colt getting completely ignored in the Derby betting, building momentum from far back, and storming down the Churchill Downs stretch with abandon at something like 40-1.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Instant Coffee has put together a commendable four-race progression that includes a win sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga first time out at 14-1 odds, plus two scores over 1 1/16 miles in which he's taken the overland route from far back to win as the favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and the GIII Lecomte S.

Nestled in between his maiden victory and those stakes tallies is a fourth-place try in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. that shouldn't be overlooked, because that Keeneland stakes was the deepest, most productive 2-year-old race from last autumn (five next-out winners, including four in stakes).

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) will next target the Louisiana Derby, and you'd think the long Fair Grounds stretch would benefit his off-the-tailgate style.

But just two preps at age three? From 2017 through 2022, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to the Kentucky Derby are a collective 0-for-34. However, that two-at-three template worked much better over the previous decade, producing eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016.

9) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

What a great story line it'll be if an unheralded colt with a royal pedigree makes it into the gate for the Derby. Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., cost just $25,000 as a late-sale KEESEP bargain despite his dam, Eblouissante (Bernardini), being 'TDN Rising Star' half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

Beyond the underdog appeal, let's not forget that blue-collar steals been very real Derby threats in recent years. Three of the last four horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby were sold (or offered for sale) comparatively cheap: the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019 (ran for a $16,000 maiden-claiming tag); the DQ'd-but-under-appeal Medina Spirit in 2021 (sold for $1,000 and then $35,000 at auction), and Rich Strike in 2022 (claimed for $30,000 at age two).

This efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg) capitalized off an ideal speed setup for his 94-Beyer Oaklawn victory, and you can expect handicappers will hold that against him next time out. They will argue that Confidence Game had everything his own way, pace-wise, then benefitted from taking a wide path to victory while the inside contenders were mired in a muddy traffic jam.

Those skeptics just might be right. But this is what overachievers do–they exceed expectations when odds are stacked against them. I wouldn't be surprised if Confidence Game has another big race in him yet.

10) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Parks Investment Group LLC (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG; $800,000 2yo '22 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last start: Won allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Feb. 12. KY Derby points: 0

Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) energetically tracked a hot pace in his one-turn-mile debut at Gulfstream Jan. 14 as the 3-1 favorite. This son of Uncle Mo was “on hold” but not bothered by being covered up at the rail in tight quarters on the turn, then got boxed and blocked even worse at the top of the stretch before punching through with a professional late run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Next time out on Feb. 12, trainer Todd Pletcher spotted him in a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, and Kingsbarns conceded a long lead to an intemperate 37-1 shot who quickly backpedaled through the pack. Kingsbarns dispatched him with ease and fended off all comers to draw away by 7 3/4 easy lengths (85 Beyer).

This colt doesn't have a flashy way of going and his speed numbers aren't eye-popping. But he has a level-headed, adaptable approach and a measure of confidence that should aid his chances as the competition toughens and the distances increase. The Louisiana Derby is next.

11) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate's 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa looks slow based on his 77 Beyer and :7.05 final sixteenth, but those numbers don't reflect that the race was run under sudden downpour conditions even though the track remained rated “fast” for the Equibase chart.

This $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame broke well but Luis Saez opted not to engage the leaders through a :46.94 half-mile. Litigate had good far-turn punch, but did require aggressive handling through the lane to sustain his bid ahead of two longshot closers.

Next up is the Louisiana Derby.

12) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings Inc & Philip J Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: Second in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 20

Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham S., had to be ridden cautiously to steer clear of a loose horse, dropped far behind through a quick :45.53 half-mile, then unwound with a prolonged far-turn bid.

But this $150,000 KEESEP gray still had only one horse beaten at the top of the stretch in a field of 14. Fanned way out wide in the 11 path, he dug in under Trevor McCarthy, uncorking a furious late rally that earned second under the wire behind a 7 1/2-length, 23-1 upsetter Raise Cain (Violence).

Trainer Brad Cox said he “never expected him to be that far back” and that “hopefully he gets a little better trip and a little better position” when he goes next in the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8.

The added furlong should suit this colt, with stout A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew influences anchoring the bottom of his pedigree. His dam, Got Lucky, was a six-time victress with all of her wins at a mile or longer, the most prominent being a nine-furlong score in the 2015 GI Juddmonte Spinster S. at Keeneland.

Owner Al Gold's stable, Gold Square Racing, now has two contenders with the Top 12, as New York-stabled Slip Mahoney joins the New Orleans-based Instant Coffee.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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