Florida Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

Florida Derby Time Adjusted

After reviewing the race, Equibase has adjusted the final time for Saturday's GI Florida Derby, won by Forte (Violence). The original time of 1:48.51 has been changed to 1:49.37.

In a statement released Sunday by Equibase, the company said that the finish line beam may have been tripped before the horses reached the finish line.

Prior to Equibase recognizing the mistake, the error was caught by the Beyer speed figure team. Initially, Forte was credited with a 98 Beyer figure. That number was lowered to a 95.

“The time is almost a full second wrong and I have no idea why,” said Beyer associate Randy Moss.

After doing their own review of the race, the Beyer team came up with a final time of 1:49.39. Moss said questions were raised about the Equibase time because it had the field covering the final eighth of a mile in 12:16 seconds, which seemed unrealistically fast. That, Moss said, drew the attention of Craig Milkowski from TimeformUS. He reached out to Moss and both went over the race. With the recalculated final time, Forte's last furlong went in 13.02. Equibase has also adjusted the time for the final furlong to 13:02.

“We timed it four different times, four different ways and got within three-one hundredths of a second every time,” Moss said.

Moss added that on first inspection it appeared that Forte's figure was significantly higher.

“Initially, we looked at the track variant and had the figure coming up as 104,” Moss said. “Andy (Beyer) and Mark (Hopkins) asked me what did I think. I said that the fig is the fig. They said there was no way those horse who finished behind Forte could have all run that fast. So they decided to make it a 98. As it turns out, they were right because the time was wrong.”

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The Week In Review: April Fool In The Derby Future Wager Pool?

Approaching the four-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher has three highly ranked contenders, and the most impressive thing about that collective is that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has guided them through undefeated 2023 campaigns to date, meticulously mapping out their schedules to avoid overlap.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence), now 6-for-7, won Saturday's GI Florida Derby with a mad-dash flourish. 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit), the winner of the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, will be heavily favored to improve his 3-for-4 record with another score in Saturday's GI Blue Grass S. The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) heads to Kentucky after wiring the GII Louisiana Derby.

Latching on to a proven trainer and the prospect of getting behind the “headline horses,” bettors accordingly pounded those three Pletcher trainees in Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

Unlike pools 2 through 5 earlier this season that closed on Sunday evenings after each weekend's prep stakes had been run, this final version of the KDFW added speculative intrigue by closing at 6 p.m. Saturday, prior to the runnings of the Florida Derby and GI Arkansas Derby.

Forte closed as the 5-2 favorite, while Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns attracted 11-1 action as the co-second choices.

Forte being favored is no shock. But that prohibitively low price bettors jumped at Apr. 1 makes you wonder if some April fools got pranked in the futures pool by locking in a return that could be lower than Forte's actual mutuel on Derby day.

For perspective, only three times in the past 14 years has the Derby favorite been sent postward at 5-2 or lower odds on race day. Even the two recent, highly popular Triple Crown winners–American Pharoah and Justify–didn't get that heavily backed in their respective Derbies. Both went off at 2.9-1.

And the kicker is that bettors were willing to accept that apparently underlaid 5-2 price on Forte before knowing the results of the Florida Derby. Nor did they know how the colt came out of the race (reportedly fine).

But considering the historical starting prices in the Derby itself, do those ticket-holders still think they got good value on their KDFW investments? Presumably, they'll spend the next four weeks anxiously awaiting the Derby post draw, which presents an entirely unavoidable random wrinkle that will one way or the other affect Forte's Derby-day mutuel odds and his chances in the race itself.

As for the other two Pletcher-trained KDFW second choices, Tapit Trice at 11-1 has decent upside if he runs a monster race at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice | SV Photography

Kingsbarns, however, is likely to go off higher than his 11-1 KDFW price in the actual Derby mutuels.

Dropping down to 13-1 in Pool 6 of the KDFW, we find another seemingly underlaid surprise: Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits).

This 4-for-8 winner of the G2 UAE Derby could be part of the advancing wave of Japan-based horses rapidly making their marks in elite global races. But I doubt this colt will be going off lower than that ambitious KDFW price when he starts in Louisville. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

Practical Move at 14-1 represents the first sniff of KDFW Pool 6 value.

For the past month, this son of Practical Joke has been ranked as the No. 2 contender on the TDN Derby Top 12 list, and he's either going to be the favorite or the second favorite in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. A win or a smart second sets up this colt to peak in Louisville, and if that's the result, Practical Move will start as the second or third favorite in the Derby mutuels, somewhere in the 5-1 to 10-1 range.

But it's the other major contender in the Santa Anita Derby–Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg})–whose overlaid 33-1 KDFW Pool 6 closing odds stand out like a beacon of opportunity.

For that juicy price, you get a 2-for-2, sped-centric prospect who has shown promise enough to be ranked at No. 4 within the TDN Top 12.

Geaux Rocket Ride will vie for favoritism with Practical Move on Saturday, and his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, is known for not embarking upon the Derby path unless he is confident he has a colt with a realistic shot of winning on the first Saturday in May.

Kingsbarns | Ryan Thompson

Mandella hasn't started a horse in the Kentucky Derby since 2004. But in 2019 he was set to start the deserving favorite, Omaha Beach, before having to scratch days before the Derby when the colt was discovered to have an entrapped epiglottis.

Parked much, much deeper down the list among the 39 individual horses and the 17-1 “all others” field option for KDFW Pool 6 is one final, tantalizing long shot worth mentioning: The Brad Cox-trained Slip Mahoney at an astounding 130-1.

He's an Arrogate colt out of an A.P. Indy mare who will be among the favorites in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct. Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate and second best with a big late move from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

His distance-oriented pedigree should appreciate the stretch out to nine furlongs from three one-turn miles. And if he runs well enough to accrue the points (he's currently No. 31 with 20 on the qualifying list), bettors will likely send him off exponentially lower in the Louisville mutuels.

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Forte ‘Looks Very Well’ Following Gutsy Florida Derby Win

Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable's Forte (Violence), winner of Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby, will remain in South Florida for now to await his next assignment in the GI Kentucky Derby.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher reported Sunday that the champion 2-year-old colt emerged from his one-length victory over Mage (Good Magic) in good order and left Gulfstream Park early Sunday morning to return to Pletcher's winter base at Palm Beach Downs

“He's good. He shipped back early this morning and he looks very well,” Pletcher said. “We'll kind of leave it open. I think we'll stay here at least a couple of weeks. We'll monitor the weather here, that it doesn't start to get too hot, and kind of monitor what the Louisville forecast looks like and if it kind of becomes springtime and [there's] not a lot of rain in the forecast then we might shift up there for his last couple of works. I think we'll just play it by ear for a little while and see how things are developing.”

Forte had plenty to overcome in the Florida Derby in an effort and under circumstances that Pletcher felt would be an ideal bridge to the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.

“I think the one thing we learned in the Florida Derby is that he handled the race really well. The best part of the race for him was the last sixteenth of a mile, which gives you confidence that the added distance won't be an issue,” Pletcher said. “He seems to have taken it well. He was on his toes after the race which he normally is, just like he is kind of in the walking ring beforehand.”

“It showed that he still had some good energy left after the race, but we'll learn a lot more about that as we kind of train this week,” he added. “What was impressive yesterday was when he did make the lead, he kind of pricked his ears again which we've seen him do a number of times. It kind of makes you believe there's a little more in the tank there.”

Forte will look to give his trainer his third Kentucky Derby win following Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.

“The schedule's changed a bit. When I first started coming to Gulfstream, the Florida Derby was sort of a prep for a final prep, and now, with the positioning of it five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, to me, it's kind of become the ideal Derby prep,” he added. “I love the spacing of it, the five weeks until the Kentucky Derby. So it's kind of changed a little bit as we've gone along, but really I like where it's positioned. We liked the schedule that we laid out for him. We liked the Fountain of Youth as his comeback race, which went very smoothly. Then we got a good solid race in the Florida Derby,” Pletcher said. “Part of the reason we chose the Florida Derby over the Blue Grass was the additional week to the Kentucky Derby. I think that spacing is good, hopefully, to have him move forward again.”

OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing and CMNWLTH's Mage, in just his third career start, earned 40 points for his runner-up finish and now ranks 12th on the Derby points leaderboard.

Trainer Dale Romans indicated Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons' Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief), third in the Florida Derby, will be Kentucky Derby-bound.

“He looks good,” Romans said Sunday. “We look forward to the Derby. His last couple races have been good and he keeps improving, so we'll have him back in there.”

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Todd Pletcher Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

It's that time of the year, when Todd Pletcher is in the headlines virtually every weekend. He won last Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby with Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), has the favorite in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby in Forte (Violence) and the following week will head to Keeneland for the GI Toyota Blue Grass, where Tapit Trice (Tapit) could be the horse to beat. To get Pletcher's latest thoughts on his wealth of 3-year-old talent we had him join us on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. Pletcher was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

A key topic was the draw for the Florida Derby. A small field was expected, but when the entries came out, the Florida Derby had a field of 12 and Forte drew the 11 post. That's a big disadvantage, which Pletcher was quick to acknowledge. The 11 post is just 2-for-49 at a mile-and-an-eighth on the dirt at Gulfstream.

“There's no bones about it. I don't like it,” he said. “It wouldn't have been one of my first five choices. I read the other day that since 2006, post 11 is 2-for-49 at Gulfstream going a mile-and-an-eighth. The one thing I will say, you'd have to go back and look at all 49 horses who broke from that post. But I would doubt that too many of them have the credentials that Forte does.”

He said that when the new Gulfstream was being built the Stronach team asked him his opinion as to whether or not they should build a mile-and-an-eighth main track. He told them he was against it.

“If you could go back 20 years, they actually did ask me when they were looking at the blueprints,” he said. “They asked me 'What do you think of a mile-and-an-eighth track?' I told them that I didn't care for it at all. It compromises your race and potentially could compromise anyone who draws an outside post. I've always felt it's not really a fair race for everyone. Between the Florida Derby and the Pegasus, you just hate to see the two most significant races of the meet potentially affected by post position.”

In the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns benefitted from a heady ride by Flavien Prat, who got his mount to the lead and slowed the pace down to a crawl. Pletcher said the plan was to be aggressive from the gate.

“Flavien and I spoke about the race,” he said. “We wanted to make sure we were kind of seeing the pace scenario the same way and that we both agreed. There didn't appear to be a lot of pace on paper. We felt like we would come out running, try to establish some position. We felt like the horse was versatile enough that if he made the lead the right way we'd be fine with that. And if someone else was ambitious and wanted to take it, then we could put ourselves in a good stalking position. At the elbow of the first turn, we were a length in front and it was pretty much all good from there.”

Scouting the competition, Pletcher admitted he was impressed with Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the winner of the G2 UAE Derby, who will now be headed to the GI Kentucky Derby.

“I thought it was a very impressive performance,” he said. “I think the track might have been a little bit speed favoring, but I didn't get to watch the whole card. The Japanese horses have just been performing phenomenally everywhere that their horses run. So, yes, I'm concerned. They're certainly improving by leaps and bounds in the way that their horses are performing globally.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, Lane's End, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman dissected last week's Louisiana Derby and the impressive win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. Did he move up on the synthetic surface or is he a horse that has improved quickly? The trio also gave their handicapping thoughts for this week's Florida Derby and the GI Arkansas Derby.

For the video only version, click here and for Audio only, click here.

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