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Rich Strike Is For Real, And Other Thoughts

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

Reflections on an interesting weekend of racing:

(*) No, Rich Strike did not win the GII Lukas Classic S. at Churchill Downs. A very game Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) had a second surge and came back just before the wire to nip him by a head. But not only was there no shame in losing, this was the best race of Rich Strike's career-better, yes, the GI Kentucky Derby-and finally put to rest that he was a one-race wonder who just got lucky on the first Saturday in May.

There was plenty of reason to doubt this horse after the Derby. He was 80-1, probably should have been even higher, and benefitted from a massive pace meltdown and a perfect trip under the unheralded rider Sonny Leon. It looked like a fluke and even more so when he never threatened in the GI Belmont S. and finished sixth, beaten 13 1/4 lengths.

He came back in the GI Travers S. and certainly didn't embarrass himself, running fourth behind the immensely talented divisional leader Epicenter (Not This Time). But fourth is not first and he lost by 5 ½ lengths.

Trainer Eric Reed then made the decision to skip the GI Pennsylvania Derby and take on older horses in the Lukas Classic. He didn't exactly find an easy spot. With Hod Rod Charlie, Happy Saver (Super Saver) and Art Collector (Bernardini), the race was loaded. Considering the quality of the field and that the race was for 3-year-olds and up, you can make the argument that the race was a tougher assignment than the Derby. And he ran his heart out, losing to an accomplished and tenacious Grade I winning 4-year-old who has bankrolled more than $5.5 million.

“He hooked the toughest horses he has ever ran against and ran on the outside the whole way,” Reed said after the race. “Look how far he has come since May. I can only imagine what it's going to be like next year.”

Good point: this colt is obviously improving and should be an outstanding 4-year-old.

It's also worth noting that he was much closer to the pace than normal in the race Saturday at Churchill. He was never further back than fourth and never more than 2 ½ lengths off the lead. That should serve him well as trying to win races from 15 lengths off the pace is never an easy way to go.

Reed hasn't said yet if Rich Strike will go next in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. The other option is the GI Clark S. on Nov. 25. Considering the depth of the Classic and the presence of a certain horse named Flightline (Tapit) and Rich Strike's affinity for the Churchill surface the Clark looks like the better option. Either way, it looks like he will show up and be competitive. He's not Flightline, he may not be Epicenter, but he is what he is–a very good horse and a deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby.

(*) The Lukas Classic was not without controversy. Aboard Rich Strike, Sonny Leon appeared to be leaning into Tyler Gaffalione on Hot Rod Charlie and elbowing him as the two horses neared the wire. Retired jockey and TV analyst Richard Migliore took to Twitter to criticize Leon and claim that his actions cost Rich Strike the race.

“After watching the Lukas classic numerous times @SONNYLEON1 cost Rich Strike the win by pulling him over to Hot Rod Charlie and putting his elbow into @Tyler_Gaff instead of going forward and driving to the wire,” he tweeted. “When does this BS stop? It's horse racing not jockey racing. Enough.”

NYRA linemaker David Aragona also had his say on Twitter.”As much as I'd like to praise how well Rich Strike ran today, this is pretty bad stuff from the jock,” he wrote. “Obviously crossing a line. A suspension is warranted for these kind of shenanigans.

Others on Twitter were kinder, arguing that Leon's saddle slipped and that was what caused him to lean into Gaffalione, which, the head-on replay shows, he clearly did.

(*) Maybe the GI Woodward S. was nothing more than a paid public workout for Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and all he needed to do was get around the racetrack. He did in fact het the job done. But with his reputation and his odds of 1-20 weren't you expecting more than a 1 1/4-length win and a 97 Beyer figure? There was even a moment when it looked like eventual runner-up Law Professor (Constitution) was going to beat and post what would have been a colossal upset.Take nothing away from Life Is Good. He's won three Grade I races this year and if not for Flightline would be the favorite for the Horse of the Year title. But if he is going to be in competitive in the Classic he will need to run much better than he did Saturday.

(*) The GI Awesome Again S. was a chance to enhance Flightline's reputation, if such a thing is possible. The race included, in Country Grammer (Tonalist), Royal Ship (Brz) and Express Train (Union Rags), the horses who were second, third and fourth when Flightline turned in his electrifying performance in the GI Pacific Classic. Had that group come back with strong collective efforts in the Awesome Again it would have made Flightiline's race look even better.

It didn't happen.

The race was won by Defunded (Dialed In), who was coming of a sixth-place finish in the GII Pat O'Brien S. Country Grammer was second but was a disappointment at odds of 11-10. Express Train was fourth and Royal Ship was sixth. Neither ran well.

This doesn't mean that Flightline isn't a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but it's clear that, beyond him, the older male division in California is a weak one.

(*) Horse racing remains the only gambling game where you can cash a winning bet and feel like a chump. It happened again in the Awesome Again. When the field was loading into the gate Defunded was 8-1. The gate opened, he got out front and, lo and behold, he was 5-1 on the next flash. He paid $12.

Once again, the computer players got fat and happy at the expense of the everyday player who wagered on Defunded thinking they had bet on a horse that would pay in the neighborhood of 8-1. The winners were made to feel like losers. And the problem is not going to go away. The CAW players wager far too much money for any track to refuse their bets.

Fixed odds can't come soon enough, but it looks like industry is in no hurry to at least give them a try. Why? In fact, FanDuel is prepared to offer bets on racing on its sports betting platforms, but with pari-mutuel odds. You think the sports bettor would be OK with betting the Mets at -160 only to be told after the first pitch the odds were really -210? Of course not. It's hard to imagine a marriage of sports betting and racing working without fixed odds.

(*) Chad Brown keeps getting better and better with young dirt horses. When he won the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct with Blazing Sevens (Good Magic), it was his second straight win in the race and his fourth overall. Blazing Seven's sire, Good Magic (Curlin), was second in the 2017 Champagne.

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Flightline Back at it in Arcadia

While his main locally based rivals were gearing up for the GI Awesome Again S. Saturday afternoon, unbeaten superstar Flightline (Tapit) continued his march towards the Nov. 5 GI Breeders' Cup Classic with another strong breeze at Santa Anita. The 'TDN Rising Star', last seen dropping jaws in the Sept. 3 GI TVG Pacific Classic S. to go five-for-five lifetime, covered five furlongs in 1:00.40 (11/59) under John Sadler's assistant trainer Juan Leyva (Click for video via XBTV).

“He went nice and easy, no heavy lifting,” Sadler said. “We've got plenty of time. There was a pretty large group on hand to watch him. We're just trying to embrace everything, lean into it… This opportunity doesn't come around very often. He's doing really well and we'll be working every Saturday.”

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The Week in Review: A Good Year to Have a Tough Horse

With undefeated phenom Flightline (Tapit) and sophomore star Epicenter (Not This Time) headlining a respectably deep GI Breeders' Cup Classic, one oft-repeated quip is that 2022 is turning out to be “a tough year to have a good horse” aiming for a divisional championship.

Yet a few rungs farther down the class ladder–more than a few, in truth–a blue-collar starter-allowance stalwart is tweaking that phrase so it better suits his grind-it-out style, proving that '22 is actually “a good year to have a tough horse.”

Last week at Churchill Downs, Beverly Park (Munnings) won his 11th race of the season in start number 23 on the year. Both those numbers are tops in North America; his next closest rivals have eight wins and 20 starts, respectively.

Emblematic of his speed-centric, hard-charging nature, the 5-year-old broke running in a 6 1/2-furlong $20,000 starter-allowance Sept. 21, took pressure at the rail in a three-way speed duel, then repulsed a deep-stretch threat to eke out a 3/4-length score under Rafael Bejarano for owner/trainer Norman Lynn Cash, whose horses race under the name Built Wright Stables.

Eleven wins and it's only the first week of autumn. For perspective, no North American Thoroughbred has won more than 12 races in an entire calendar year since 2011, when Rapid Redux ran the table with a gaudy 19-for-19 record. More than three full months of racing are left in '22.

In fact, by the time you read this, Beverly Park could well already be on the cusp of being entered for his next race.

Colleague Bill Finley profiled Cash's “throwback” operation in mid-May, when Beverly Park had racked up his first six wins of the year. After having owned racehorses in partnership with his wife, Lola, for about a decade, Cash took out his trainer's license in April 2021. He now runs a 40-head stable (split between Laurel Park in Maryland and the Thoroughbred Training Center in Lexington, Kentucky) on the theory that as long as horses show they can thrive on frequent racing, they'll be in the entry box.

Cash claimed Beverly Park for $12,500 out of a NW3L win at Belterra Park on Aug. 5, 2021, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a horse who had won his previous NW2L condition in his previous start at the $5,000 level by 15 lengths. That meant Beverly Park would be eligible for some lucrative starter-allowance spots. But because improved horses who once ran for low claiming tags generally scare away entrants for those restricted races, Beverly Park had to hit the road to extend his winning ways.

So far in '22, Beverly Park has raced at Oaklawn, Charles Town, Turfway, Laurel, Mahoning Valley, Keeneland, Monmouth, Belterra, Churchill, Thistledown, Delaware, Colonial and Timonium. In the 399-day span between Cash's claiming him and last week's win at Churchill, Beverly Park is 18-for-31 with $424,024 in purse earnings. His lifetime record stands at 21-for-40.

Finally a favorite

The $200,000 Parx Dirt Mile doesn't yet have the status of a graded race, but Mind Control (Stay Thirsty) has made it worth watching the past two years on the GI Pennsylvania Derby Day undercard.

A tenacious middle-distance horse who is often perceived as having something to prove, Mind Control is known for clawing back leads when he appears hopelessly beaten (like in the '21 Parx Dirt Mile), and winning races by thinly sliced margins (of his 11 lifetime victories, two were by noses, three by heads, and one by a neck).

Something of a fan favorite, the Red Oak Stable and Madaket Stables colorbearer for trainer Todd Pletcher has not been a pari-mutuel darling: Going into Saturday's Parx Dirt Mile defense, Mind Control had started in 15 consecutive stakes, dating all the way back to Mar. 7, 2020, without once being favored in the betting.

Although feats like this are difficult to pin down as actual “records” (help welcomed from anyone with a deep enough database), it's unlikely the sport has witnessed too many (if any) million-dollar-plus purse-earners competing strictly in stakes over a 2 1/2-year span without once going postward as the public's choice.

That changed Sept. 24, when Parx bettors installed Mind Control as the 3-5 choice for the Dirt Mile. The 6-year-old tracked the Pennsylvania-bred pacemaker Far Mo Power (Uncle Lino) every step of the trip before the dueling duo pulsed away from the pack on the far turn.

The 12-1 longshot and the odds-on favorite raced in lockstep and close quarters through the length of the lane, exchanging heads on the lead and some brief brushing, with the innermost Far Mo Power under Parx journeyman Dexter Haddock twice shifting outward toward Mind Control and Hall-of-Famer John Velazquez.

Under the wire, Far Mo Power prevailed by a neck, but the objection and inquiry signs soon blinked to life on the tote board. When the numbers stopped flashing, Mind Control was elevated as the winner, with Far Mo Power and jockey Dexter Haddock placed second for interference.

“My horse is a fighter but, when [Far Mo Power initially] came out and touched him, I was okay,” said Velazquez. “[Mind Control] got a little intimidated, but my horse got head and head with him again…. At the sixteenth pole [Haddock] hit [his mount] left-handed and he touched [Mind Control], kind of got him off balance. That really got my horse intimidated and off balance and I couldn't get back on it.”

Regardless of the stewards' reasoning for the DQ, it's difficult not to view the takedown through the eyes of the demoted connections.

Far Mo Power's owner, Joseph Sutton, has only started 18 horses lifetime with a two-horse stable, according to Equibase. Trainer Louis Linder Jr., has been conditioning for a decade, and has never won a stakes at the graded level. Haddock, riding since 2017, has a lone Grade III victory atop his riding resume, earned only last month. A win in a $200,000 race over their home track would have been a big deal for everyone involved, yet Far Mo Power's people were diplomatic in the aftermath of the outcome.

“That's horse racing,” said Linder. “It hurts, but we'll live to fight another day. From the minute this horse has been in the barn I knew he was special.”

Added Haddock: “My horse tried hard. I am sad. I get on him in the morning every day. I am sad for me. I am sad for the trainer.”

As for Mind Control, his win-via-DQ earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. After running the vast majority of his races around one turn, he has now earned his only three triple-digit Beyers in his only three two-turn races at a flat mile.

Perhaps those figures will stand him in good stead in the November renewal of the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland. A fever knocked Mind Control out of last year's Dirt Mile at Del Mar.

Midwest musings

It's a little early to get the crystal ball fired up to see what changes might affect regional racing calendars in 2023, but three separate news items from last week hinted at some subtle shifting in the Midwest.

The pending $79-million sale of Ellis Park to the gaming company Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI), was greenlighted by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission Sept. 20. Although Ellis is scheduled to race essentially the same block of 24 dates next year over the same summer template, CDI will naturally want to put its own stamp on operations there. Considering the deal was in large part billed as a way to shore up year-round racing in Kentucky, you can bet that the new management will be making a sizable push to recruit and retain outfits that might have traditionally raced elsewhere.

Meanwhile, on Sept. 22, Hawthorne Race Course was granted a slate of '23 dates by the Illinois Racing Board that will return a summer Thoroughbred season to greater Chicago after a one-year absence in the aftermath of the sudden and permanent closure of Arlington International Racecourse. Hawthorne will race Saturdays and Sundays Mar. 4-June 3, then add Wednesdays through Sept. 4.

That schedule could put a downstate squeeze on the former Fairmount Park, which is now known as FanDuel Sportsbook and Horse Racing. Those two Illinois tracks have some overlap at the lower end of the class hierarchy, and with FanDuel's Tuesdays/Saturdays schedule from Apr. 18-Nov. 18, there will be conflicting summer Saturdays within the state.

Another wild card in the Midwest mix is Canterbury Park up in Minnesota. Despite ending its 64-date season Sept. 17 with a reported record total handle rise to $97.6 million, Canterbury faces an uncertain future because a 10-year agreement between the track and the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community (that provides purse funding in exchange for the track and horsemen not pursuing additional forms of gambling) is set to expire Dec. 31.

Andrew Offerman, Canterbury's senior vice president of racing, told the Minneapolis Star Tribune the day after the meet ended that the '23 schedule will depend on how much purse money is available. The Tribune reported that Canterbury paid $15.7 million in purses this season, with $7.28 million coming from the purse-enhancement agreement.

Less purse money likely would mean fewer racing days next summer, Offerman told the Tribune, adding that Canterbury might consider running three days per week instead of four.

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This Side Up: Striking Gold Never a Formality

In this business, simply “doing the math” would stop us right in our tracks. Luckily, we have algebra on our side. A daunting equation can always be rescued by that helpfully vague variable, 'x', the unquantifiable ardor of wealthy people: their competitive instinct, their sportsmanship, or simply their outsized egos. At the top of the market, after all, the dollars they spend are not the same as the dollars used by the rest of us to buy coffee or gas. It's not like “real” money at all. But that doesn't mean it can't be subject to a scale of values.

So, to give one example, I shouldn't be at all surprised if the most expensive yearling transaction of 2022 has yet to take place, despite that booming market at Keeneland over the past few days. American investment at the Tattersalls October Sale has been soaring in recent years, and the environment this time round could not be more congenial. Even the biggest domestic investors will be bringing a penknife to a gunfight. Sterling has hit a 37-year low against the dollar and, with the fiscal helm in Britain seized by navigators unorthodox to the point of eccentricity, you couldn't rule out outright parity between the two currencies by the time Tattersalls raises a hammer over several yearlings from the penultimate crop of Galileo (Ire).

And here's another calculation for the rich; specifically, for those prosperous partners privileged to share Flightline (Tapit). If all goes well at the Breeders' Cup, somebody in their decision-making huddle will surely point out that nowadays he has the option of banking the equivalent of around 50 covers, even at his likely fee, with a 110-second gallop in Saudi Arabia. (Conceivably it might even be muttered that the race is scheduled just 11 days into the breeding season.)

From the sidelines, we're all fondly anticipating mass public engagement for our sport if Flightline is permitted to extend his career beyond a sixth start. Even if his owners were to give us what we want, however, there's a scenario in which we might seem impossible to satisfy. What if they ask us to settle for a couple of breakfast broadcasts from the desert, before he rests up and takes in maybe a single prep before the Breeders' Cup? I think our gratitude might soon obtain a rather peevish note.

On some level, those imploring his owners to keep him in training are suggesting some implicit duty to the sport. That feels a little unfair. At the same time, if we are asked to believe that their strategy really won't be governed simply by dollars and cents, then it does at least become a question of the kind of legacy they wish to create from a generational opportunity.

Flightline's stud career is emphatically part of that, too, though let's not forget that even an authentic racetrack phenomenon must start over and prove himself in his second career. For now, it's not as though Flightline could be sensibly proposed as an equivalent wager, in terms of what a breeder should be expected to pay, to Into Mischief.

At 126, Flightline has authored one of just eight Beyers ever recorded at 125 or more. The only horse to hit a higher mark, Ghostzapper (128), is also the only one with any pretension to having maintained his elite status at stud. More typical are the fortunes of the horse with the unique distinction of clocking two of those eight Himalayan Beyers.

In his three final starts, Formal Gold ran 126, 124 (smashing a 40-year Monmouth track record) and 125; he was going into the Breeders' Cup on an irresistible roll when derailed by injury. Yet he would prove a thoroughly anonymous stallion, best redeemed by Semaphore Man, who annually contested the GIII Count Fleet H., aged four through seven, for finishes of 3-2-1-1. After failing to get any of three Saskatchewan mares in foal in 2017, Formal Gold was retired into the best of care but nobody noticed when he quietly slipped away two or three years back.

Now obviously Flightline is a radically different proposition. And not just because Formal Gold, expertly handled by the unsung Bill Perry and thriving on the attentions of Skip Away and Will's Way, stood up to 16 starts in 15 months. Formal Gold cost $62,000 as Hip 1657 at the September Sale; Flightline made seven figures at Saratoga. Alongside his freakish performances, then, he evidently has the genetic and physical wherewithal to make a better fist of his next career.

But even Secretariat notoriously failed to find a male heir. All Thoroughbreds tend to keep us guessing, in some respect or other, and that's never going to change. Certainly I can't buy into the notion that Flightline has fueled the market boom by showing that even really big numbers can be made to make sense. The year he was sold was no different from any other, in terms of the spectrum of outcomes.

It was that September, for instance, that the daughter of Leslie's Lady and American Pharoah made $8.2 million, and there's no need to remind anyone of the tragedy that ensued. That kind of thing can happen to any horse, but it's pretty sobering to scroll down the other top prices paid at that auction. They were obviously well assessed, physically, because most have made the racetrack. But while Malathaat (Curlin) has proved a million bucks very well spent, and there have been moments of excitement for the likes of Spielberg (Union Rags) and Overtook (Curlin), suffice to say that there are some pretty expensive geldings pottering around out there.

The late Cezanne in March | Horsephotos

Another of the headline scores of the 2019 bloodstock market was the $3.65-million Curlin colt that topped Fasig-Tipton's 2-year-old sale at Gulfstream. I was extremely sorry, this week, to read that Cezanne's various travails since had reached a fatal nadir in a fungal infection. He will duly remain an unfinished masterpiece, albeit even he managed two more starts than Flightline to this point. Cezanne's whole story has proved a very poignant one: most obviously, as the parting bow of Jimmy Crupi, but also given the premature loss (through colic) of a dam from one of the most brilliantly curated families in the book.

Cezanne had shown sufficient flashes of brilliance to merit a chance at stud and, this business being what it is, he would have started with the same blank slate as will Flightline. So we can never know, from one day to the next, quite when a Thoroughbred has achieved its definitive value.

As such, in enjoying a loaded GI Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday, perhaps we should cast our minds back to the 1996 running when Formal Gold was turned over at short odds. In the event, it proved that he had barely started. Maybe that can still prove true of Zandon (Upstart), in which hope I'm clinging stubbornly to the wreckage after his championship credentials took a battering in the GI Travers.

To me, he looked like a horse in some kind of discomfort that day, the way he carried his head turning in, and I refuse to forget the way he glided into contention on the first Saturday in May. For such a baffling Derby, it is turning out to be a pretty good one, and yet there was a moment when Zandon looked in a class of his own.

His equation still has that 'x' element, and maybe his new jockey will discover its true value. You know, I might even stake a dollar or two out of my grocery budget.

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