By J. N. Campbell
As the Breeders' Cup Festival looms, Nick Tammaro is delving deep into the past performances. It's not to participate in the BC Betting Challenge. He's too principled. There is a more ardent task at hand-making the morning line.
Last month, Tammaro got the call from Keeneland about taking over the October Meet's duties, previously held by longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. “It was a true honor to even be considered,” he said. “I have been doing this at Sam Houston Race Park and the chance to make the line at such a unique place as Keeneland is special.” The Breeders' Cup offer followed.
A Houston native who grew up in Dallas, Tammaro has a diverse resume. He's forged a career in the industry these past number of years that includes becoming a public handicapper to serving as the announcer at his home track. Raised by a horseplaying father who loved the sport, when asked by his son what families do on Saturdays, Tammaro recalls his father telling him, “I don't know, let's not find out.” Nick's father passed away earlier this year, but to hear him tell it, “I am sure Dad is up there bending someone's ear about how I am making the line for the Breeders' Cup.”
While it may be a distinct honor, crafting a morning line is a rather thankless pursuit. Tammaro makes an apt comparison. “You're a grocery store produce manager in that you only hear from customers when the tomatoes and lettuce are putrid.” This is one of those pressure-packed jobs at a racetrack with an interesting history.
In another age, the great turf writer Whitney Tower penned a piece for Sports Illustrated on March 2, 1959 entitled, “Hanging on the Morning Line,” in which he interviewed “Mr. Price Maker.” Tower told readers, “A friend…works at his own regular job six days a week, rarely gets to the races more than 15 times a year, and yet for the last 10 years has been among the top men in this difficult and exacting profession.” Enjoying his anonymity, Mr. Price Maker summed up his profession by adding, “My job is essentially one of evaluation rather than of observation.”
Nowadays, we know exactly who the culprit is that makes the odds. Tammaro and his colleagues regularly face strict scrutiny when something is off. Not all of it makes sense. “I always crack up when I put a horse at 8-1, and it goes off at 4, because that sends people into a furor on Twitter,” he said. “But when he is 3-1 and ends up 6-5, there is silence.” Like a weatherman forecasting a flash flood, predicting the odds in an age where computer-assisted wagering can sink a runner's payouts in seconds, there are numerous complexities when it comes to constructing the line.
Producing odds is all about observing myriad factors, with the goal of predicting what the public thinks the prices will be when a race goes off as opposed to who the linemaker thinks will win.
Tammaro is guided primarily by math. Every odds number represents a percentage of the betting pool, and using a spreadsheet, he balances the field until it adds up to a magic number of 120. When it comes to percentages, if he makes a horse 2-1, then he is saying that 33.33% of the public is betting on that horse to win. He calculates this with a formula: 2/1=2; that 2+1=3; 100/3=33.33). The more evenly the field is matched, the tougher it is to differentiate the odds of one horse with that of another.
Taking a cue from his handicapping, this oddsmaker has developed a two-fold system to sweep through the form once a field is drawn. This can be tricky because tracks release who is entered sometimes a week in advance of the race. “What I try to do is take a break after an initial run through,” Tammaro explained. “I think that all goes into the math and improvisation behind constructing an accurate morning line.” Watching replays, workouts, and looking at everything, from speed figures to the trainer and jockey statistics during a meet, are essential. “I couldn't make a line if I wasn't directly following a track,” he said. “I think it would be too difficult.” Everyone might not agree, but like an umpire calling balls and strikes, it's the human element that persists with this job.
In particular, the Breeders' Cup is a highly-specialized event when it comes to the odds because not only do you have some of the best pointing to the post, but there are international runners that are shipping in from around the world. Tammaro said he would feel the pressure, but admitted much of it is self-imposed, “No one will scrutinize what I do more than me.” For instance, when it comes to the Breeders' Cup GI Juvenile, GI Distaff, and GI Classic, he is faced with different puzzles in each race.
The Juvenile started out with a shortlist of competitors, but over the past few weeks, that has grown. He thinks that it could end up with 10 or 12 entered, but Bob Baffert's undefeated Southern California champion, Cave Rock (Arrogate) will be the morning-line favorite. “I don't see him being higher than 4-5 at this point,” Tammaro said. “I think the connections, plus his latest speed figure, make him better than Forte (Violence), who is a clear second choice.”
In for the Distaff, the Todd Pletcher matchup has him thinking that Nest (Curlin) will be a slight favorite at 8-5 over her older stablemate, Malathaat (Curlin) at 5-2. “This groundswell for Nest that the public is backing is remarkable, but I don't think her races after Belmont were against top competition. Malathaat should be the favorite, but that's not my job.” He said the toughest call was what to do with Steve Asmussen's Clairiere. At 4-1, his third choice is a real mystery, especially after a poor showing in the G1 Personal Ensign S. at Saratoga in August.
When it comes to the Classic, Tammaro is clear on this marquee event. John Sadler's Flightline (Tapit) is the deserving favorite. Rarely do oddsmakers in horse racing assign 1-9, and he is shying away from doing so. Tammaro is more in the 3-5 range, which still takes a significant piece of the pie. “I can't go that low because it takes away too much from the others, so 62.5% makes more sense.” The closest competitors, Epicenter (Not This Time), Life Is Good (Into Mischief), and Taiba (Gun Runner), will come in at 5-1 (16.66%), 6-1 (14.29%), and 8-1 (11.11%), respectively. He believes that Rich Strike (Keen Ice), beaten by Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) last time in the GII Lukas Classic, will end up at 20-1 (4.76%). Tammaro elaborated, “Hot Rod is probably going to be 15-1 (6.25%), based on the Lukas, and I think will be under the radar, what with the likes of Epicenter taking significant action.”
Still, he said he was not overly concerned about this slate. Rather, it's the races like the Juvenile Turf Sprint or Juvenile Turf, with their large and diverse fields, that can be more of a challenge. “Charlie Appleby runners are going to play a major factor, just like Aidan O'Brien's entries did in the past, but I will have my hands full with some of those races that could go in any direction,” Tammaro said.
The modern version of “Mr. Price Maker,” who also works full-time at a Houston staffing agency, won't shy away from a trip to Keeneland next week. After all, any racetrack is what he describes as his “happy place,” as he remembers those trips with his father. With that in mind, Nick Tammaro will produce the morning line odds for the Breeders' Cup to the best of his ability. Then customers can eye the tomatoes and lettuce.
HOW TAMMARO'S CLASSIC ADDS UP
Horse ML % of pool
Flightline 3/5 62.5%
Epicenter 5/1 16%
Life Is Good 6/1 14%
Taiba 8/1 11%
Hot Rod Charlie 15/1 6%
Rich Strike 20/1 5%
Happy Saver 30/1 3%
Total 117.5%
The post Nick Tammaro Produces His First Breeders’ Cup Morning Line appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
Source of original post
