First Saturday in May | Horse Racing Free Tips

Kentucky Derby Day 149 is Here!

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The late B. Wayne Hughes will be smiling somewhere on this first Saturday in May.

Unbeaten GII Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), an $800,000 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream breezer, will carry the famed orange-and-purple colors of Spendthrift Farm while making just his fourth career start in the 149th GI Kentucky Derby.

“Our primary business really is standing stallions, but when we can go to a sale and get a horse that has a shot to make it to the stud barn, that's what we're trying to do,” Spendthrift's General Manager Ned Toffey said. “And winning a race like the Derby is obviously a big step in the right direction if you want to stand a stallion. Kingsbarns has done everything we've asked of him so far and he's done it nicely.”

Spendthrift Farm's all-conquering stallion Into Mischief, responsible for Friday's GI Kentucky Oaks heroine Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief), will have three chances at a third bouquet of roses with longshots Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief), Rocket Can (Into Mischief) and Sun Thunder (Into Mischief).

Into Mischief's Authentic, of course, won the 2020 Kentucky Derby for a high-profile partnership headed by Spendthrift Farm. Into Mischief is also the sire of Mandaloun, who was promoted to first via Medina Spirit's well-documented medication disqualification in the following year's Derby.

“That's what breeders are looking for, to get to the Derby,” Toffey said. “Into Mischief can get you any kind of horse. He's an amazing horse and continues to get the job done.”

What do you think Mr. Hughes would say if he were still around to see this day?

“I think Wayne would be saying 'I told you so,'” Toffey said with a big laugh.

“I literally remember him saying, 'I think we might have Bold Ruler on our hands.' He said that very early on in Into Mischief's career. Now, he's a four-time consecutive Leading General Sire and has done something that's not been done since Bold Ruler. Wayne really loved this horse. He meant a lot to him.”

Forte Heads 'Strong' Hand for Pletcher…

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice from a record 62 starters and arguably brings his strongest hand ever to the 1 1/4-mile Classic this year. In addition to Kingsbarns, Pletcher will saddle 3-1 morning-line favorite 'TDN Rising Star' Forte (Violence) and fellow 'Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

Last term's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old colt Forte punched his ticket to Louisville for Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable with a valiant win with a much-discussed less-than-ideal trip in the GI Curlin Florida Derby. Only Street Sense and Nyquist have pulled off the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double so far.

The $1.3-million Keeneland September graduate Tapit Trice will put a four-race winning streak on the line following eye-catching, come-from-behind victories in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

“In terms of pari-mutuel support, it's probably going to be the strongest team that we've brought,” Pletcher said. “I think only one time have we started a favorite and that was in 2017, with (Derby winner) Always Dreaming. You could argue that it was possible that Forte and Tapit Trice could be the favorite and second choice or close to it. This is the deepest squad that we've put up so far.”

Derby Quartet for Brad Cox…

Brad Cox will have four of the 19 Kentucky Derby starters, including GI Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire (Classic Empire), one of three Derby entries for the Albaugh Family Stables; narrow Blue Grass runner-up Verifying (Justify); the rail-drawn GII Wood Memorial S. runner-up Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}); and Louisiana Derby third and 'Rising Star' Jace's Road (Quality Road).

While officially recognized as a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer courtesy of the previously mentioned Mandaloun, Cox is still looking to experience that thrill of a lifetime winning the historic first leg of the Triple Crown.

“There was no experience of winning the Derby,” Cox said of the 2021 renewal. “It's the thrill of the victory that you're wanting to experience. There's no thrill in saying that you won the Derby through a phone call that says you were placed first through a DQ. There's no celebration. There's no win picture.”

Cox continued, “I do look forward, hopefully, this year to winning it. I think we got some really good shots. I'm sure it'd be a feeling like no other.”

In addition to Angel of Empire, Dennis Albaugh's operation also campaigns the Dale Romans-trained Florida Derby third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief and Jace's Road. The latter two are owned in partnership.

Outside Draws for Japanese Duo…

Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) (post 15), a dominating winner of the G2 UAE Derby, and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) (post 18) will look to continue the recent high-profile worldwide success for Japan. A sixth-place finish by Master Fencer in the 2019 Derby has been the nation's best finish in the Run for the Roses so far.

What's All the Buzz About…

Who's made the best impression in the mornings leading up to the main event? Last out GII Rebel S. winner Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) is certainly a good place to start after his visually impressive bullet workout beneath the Twin Spires last weekend. 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm (Gun Runner), meanwhile, has given every indication in the a.m. that he's ready to run the race of his life for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen following a flat third in the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. Impressive GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun) is another who has caught the eye during his morning preparations.

Stacked Derby Undercard…

Kicking off at 10:30 a.m. with another sensational forecast calling for partly cloudy skies and a high of 78 degrees, the 14-race Kentucky Derby program also prominently features: GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint heroine Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper) in the GI Derby City Distaff S.; GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody's Wish (Curlin) in the GI Churchill Downs S.; and the highly anticipated return of last year's GI Del Mar Oaks heroine Spendarella (Karakontie {Jpn}) in the GII Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. The graded stakes action at Churchill Downs is rounded out by the GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic; the GII Pat Day Mile S.; the GII American Turf S.; and the GII Twin Spires Turf Sprint S.

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Asmussen Front and ‘Center’ with Potential Derby Favorite

LOUISVILLE, KY – As the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, no one has won more races beneath the Twin Spires than Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Just not on the first Saturday in May.

Heading into GI Kentucky Derby 148 with 7-2 morning-line second choice Epicenter (Not This Time), as expected, Asmussen's well-documented 23-0-2-2 record in the 'Run for the Roses' has been a major topic of discussion.

“I don't know if it's healthy to want anything that much,” Asmussen said. “I grew up in horseracing. We've been unbelievably blessed with some of the greatest horses of all time, yet the Derby has eluded us. Going into this year, right now, I don't want to trade places with anybody. I love our chances.”

This may arguably be Asmussen's best shot so far.

Ninth at 43-1 with his first Kentucky Derby starter Fifty Stars in 2001, the 56-year-old has never saddled the favorite. Believe it or not, neither future superstar Curlin or Gun Runner was the public's choice in the Derby and only three of his starters have gone off at single digits.

Taking a look back, Asmussen's confidence was at its highest approaching the 2007 renewal, he said.

“I never in my wildest dreams thought Curlin could lose,” Asmussen said. “I did not. You could not get any more confident than that horse made you feel when you ran him. The walk back after he got beat was… Whew. Long. Like going across the Sahara Desert.”

Unraced at two, making just his fourth lifetime start and backed as the narrowest of second choices at 5-1 off a trio of jaw-dropping victories, the mighty Curlin had to settle for a well-beaten third behind slightly favored Street Sense after some early trouble passing the crowd of 156,635 for the first time.

“Two weeks later, he proved it [by winning the GI Preakness S.],” Asmussen said of the two-time Horse of the Year and perennial leading sire. “Sometimes, it just isn't meant to be. He proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was good enough. But it didn't happen.”

Carrying the same maroon-and-white silks of Winchell Thoroughbreds as Epicenter, the brilliant Gun Runner filled the third slot at 10-1 behind Nyquist after racing on a hot pace in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. The chestnut, of course, brought his game to an elite level as an older horse, led by wins in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. The 2017 Horse of the Year has excelled in his next career as well, setting a new record for progeny earnings as a first-crop sire last year.

“For him going into the breeding shed, and the success he's continuing, it's unbelievable to be a part of that,” Asmussen said.

Nehro and Lookin At Lee provided Asmussen with his two best placings in the Kentucky Derby so far, finishing second in 2011 and 2017, respectively.

Nehro, looking every bit a winner while looming boldly on the pacesetting Shackleford turning for home at a well-backed 8-1, couldn't withstand a devastating stretch run from Animal Kingdom. The rail-drawn Lookin At Lee enjoyed a perfect, ground-saving trip from far back and outran his 33-1 odds behind Always Dreaming.

“The visuals of those moments were goosebump exciting,” Asmussen said.

Derby also-rans like GI Belmont S. winner Creator (13th in 2016), GI Jockey Club Gold Cup S. winner Max Player (fifth in 2020) and the very popular, ill-fated GI Preakness S. and GI Runhappy Travers S. runner-up Midnight Bourbon (promoted to fifth via disqualification in 2021) enjoyed their share of top-level success afterward.

Albeit while racing for different connections, Asmussen Derby alumni also includes: GI Forego S. winner Pyro (eighth at 5-1 in 2008) and GI Santa Anita H. winner Combatant (18th in 2018), respectively.

“That's extremely important,” Asmussen said of that aforementioned group's subsequent accomplishments. “Extremely proud of that.”

A Deserving Choice…

Regardless of Mike Battaglia's much-discussed morning-line or where Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale's expected $3 to $4 million wager lands, Epicenter is every bit worthy of favoritism.

In key possession of a natural, high-cruising speed–more important than ever in the points system era as detailed in this space ahead of the 2018 Derby–Epicenter's resume is topped by a gate-to-wire success in a very live renewal of the GII Risen Star S. and a visually impressive, stalk-and-pounce victory with a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby.

Slight Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite and the very talented GI Toyota Blue Grass S. winner Zandon (Upstart) was back in third while making his sophomore debut in the Risen Star following an eventful journey.

A maiden winner at Churchill Downs at two, Epicenter has gradually been stretched in distance from seven furlongs on debut last September all the way to 1 3/16 miles in his final Derby prep in late March. His speed figures have improved with each and every one of his six career starts as well.

Jockey Joel Rosario, aboard 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, has the call.

“I love where he's at–mentally and physically–and how he's getting over the racetrack,” Asmussen said. “He's had a lovely progression with a gradual stretch out. He's got nice gate speed and plenty of pace. In the Louisiana Derby, he showed that he can be more tractable and still have that burst going 1 3/16 miles. We're very fortunate to be associated with him. We have the one we want for running in the 2022 Derby.”

Bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms, Epicenter brought $260,000 from the Winchell family on day six of the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling sale. Hailing from the second crop of leading young sire Not This Time, Epicenter is out of the stakes-winning and graded-stakes placed Candy Ride (Arg) mare Silent Candy.

It promises to be a huge weekend for Asmussen and owner Ron Winchell at Churchill Downs. North America's all-time winningest trainer will also be shooting for his third GI Kentucky Oaks win for the Winchells with unbeaten champion Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) on Friday.

“There's a lot of focus on the 0-for-23 and my pursuit of the Derby, but I've heard Ron [Winchell] in interviews recalling conversations that he had with his father [the late Verne Winchell] about his own pursuit of winning the Derby,” Asmussen said. “It's very meaningful. The association between the Winchells and Asmussens was started long before me and Ron.”

Asmussen concluded with a laugh, “We got to listen to conversations, but make no decisions.”

At 6:57 p.m. Saturday, Asmussen and Winchell will be more than happy to let Epicenter do all the talking.

The post Asmussen Front and ‘Center’ with Potential Derby Favorite appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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