TDN Launches Prediction Market

The TDN has launched a prediction market, where voters “bet” on the outcomes of questions with virtual money and earn real money with their correct predictions to be donated to charity.

The market was the idea of TDN writer J. N. Campbell.

Several times a week, the TDN will pose a question in the TDN, on our website in a story post, and on social media, asking voters to predict the outcome of a particular story.

We are using the platform Manifold, profiled in a New York Times story, The Wager That Betting Can Change the World, on Oct. 8.

The story was on prediction markets, online sites where people can wager on future events. Manifold operates strictly with play-money, which they call mana. People making correct bets are paid off in mana, which they can use to continue to “bet” on other questions or convert into a charitable donation. If your preferred charity isn't already listed on Manifold, you may request that it be added.

The general concept of prediction markets is that the general public's opinion is a more accurate predictor of what will happen than any expert prognosticators. “Prediction markets, they believe, offer a better way to search for truth–rewarding those who are good at forecasting by allowing them to make money off those who are bad at it, while settling on the facts in an unbiased way,” said the Times.

First up is our poll in today's HISA-Fifth Circuit story by Dan Ross. The question is: Will the Fifth Circuit Rule in Favor of HISA in its pending decision?

In our Darley stud fee announcement, we ask, “Will Cody's Wish Go Out With a Win in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile?

To vote, simply click on the question above, or the poll graphic in the story, sign up on Manifold for free, and vote. You are given 500 mana to get started, the equivalent of a $5 donation to charity. You may bet as much or as little mana as you choose on the story. Once you have signed up, you may also create your own questions for others to vote on, or vote on any of the non-TDN-related questions on the site.

The TDN has added 11 popular racing charities to the Manifold site: New Vocations, Stable Recovery, the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, Old Friends, New York Racetrack Chaplaincy, Belmont Child Care Association, Thoroughbred Charities of America, The Jockey Club Safety Net Foundation, the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation. Users wishing to use their mana to donate to different organizations may add them to the site as well.

Questions? Email suefinley@thetdn.com.

 

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Q and A With Lucinda Finley: A Lot Rests on Pending Fifth Circuit HISA Ruling

Earlier this month, the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans heard oral arguments in a pivotal case—led by the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (NHBPA)—seeking to overturn the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) on grounds that it is constitutionally flawed.

In short, the Fifth Circuit's pending ruling could have profound implications for the short and long-term future of the federal law.

Oral arguments in the Fifth Circuit follow a key decision earlier this year out of the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, finding the HISA statute indeed to be constitutional.

There is also a separate HISA-related case in the Eighth Circuit led by Bill Walmsley, Jon Moss, and the Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (HBPA) for Iowa.

To get a handle on the various implications from the pending Fifth Circuit ruling, the TDN once again spoke with constitutional law expert Lucinda Finley, Frank Raichle Professor of Trial and Appellate Advocacy, and director of Appellate Advocacy at the University of Buffalo Law School.

The following has been edited for brevity and clarity.

TDN: When is the Fifth Circuit likely to issue its ruling?

Lucinda Finley: It could be within a month. It could be up to several months. It's very hard to tell how long a court will take in ruling on an appeal. They don't have any deadline.

TDN: Can we glean any kind of meaning on how they might rule from the length of time it takes to deliver that ruling?

LF: In general in federal appellate cases, the length of time that it takes for a ruling to come out can vary by several factors. One is how many other opinions still to be issued are backlogged in the court. Another is whether there's disagreement within the panel of three judges. Is there going to be a dissent? Is there going to be a concurring opinion?

So, if there's going to be more than one unanimous majority opinion, it'll obviously take longer for the final result to be issued because multiple judges will be writing opinions and perhaps circulating their drafts amongst each other, trying to persuade someone to modify their position.

TDN: How do you think the Fifth Circuit will rule?

LF: I can't predict. I have no basis to make a prediction.

TDN: Are you able to look at any other of their rulings as a potential barometer?

LF: No. I mean, it's really going to come down to whether they agree with the Sixth Circuit that the changes congress made to give the [Federal Trade Commission] more rulemaking authority are sufficient to fix the constitutional problem that the Fifth Circuit previously identified.

TDN: What are the implications from the pending Fifth Circuit ruling for HISA?

LF: If the Fifth Circuit agrees with the Sixth Circuit and finds that the current amended version of HISA is constitutional, that makes it much less likely that the U.S. Supreme Court would take up the cases because there would not be a conflicting view between different U.S. circuit courts of appeals about the constitutionality of the federal statute.

Conversely, if the Fifth Circuit disagrees with the Sixth Circuit and finds that the amendments that Congress made are not sufficient to make the law constitutional, that makes it close to a hundred percent likely that the U.S. Supreme Court would take up the cases.

Having two different circuit courts in the country saying the same federal statute is and is not constitutional is not a situation that's tenable. The U.S. Supreme Court would have to resolve that one.

(Have an opinion? Vote by clicking on the question below.)

TDN: Just yesterday, the former president of the National HBPA said that no matter how the Fifth Circuit rules, the nation's highest court will eventually have to be called upon to settle the matter. Sounds like it's not that simple.

LF: Let me back up.

You currently have the Sixth Circuit already having ruled that the HISA statute is constitutional. You have the Fifth Circuit having heard oral arguments. A decision will come within the next few months.

You also have the Eighth Circuit considering the constitutional question, the briefs of the challengers already having been filed and the briefs of the FTC and the defenders of HISA yet to be filed. So, you have three circuit courts being asked to consider the constitutionality of HISA.

If all three of them wind up agreeing that HISA as currently written is constitutional, I don't think it's likely that the Supreme Court would hear the case.

[But] if the circuit courts disagree about the constitutionality piece, as I said, I think that makes it close to a hundred percent likely that the Supreme Court would take the case.

TDN: What are the implications (either way) from the pending Fifth Circuit ruling for those jurisdictions currently operating outside of HISA's remit, like Louisiana and West Virginia?

LF: If the Fifth Circuit rules the same way that the Sixth Circuit did and finds that HISA as amended is now constitutional, that would mean that the lower court injunctions against the enforcement of HISA in certain states would most likely be dissolved and would go away.

If the Fifth Circuit rules that even the amendments to HISA are not sufficient to make it constitutional, that would mean the injunctions against enforcing HISA in certain states would remain in effect until the Supreme Court resolves the differences of opinions between the federal circuit courts.

TDN: Does this case hold other implications at the Supreme Court level for critics of the federal administrative state?

LF: In the current term of the Supreme Court, they've just taken several cases that raise challenges to decades old, well-established administrative law precedents.

There seems to be a lot of interest in the current U.S. Supreme Court of turning administrative law on its head and reining in the authority of the federal regulatory agencies in various ways. The non-delegation doctrines that are at the heart of the challenges to HISA have not yet been the areas of administrative law that the Supreme Court seems focused on upending of changing.

But they might—if they completely change the areas of administrative law they've agreed to consider this year—maybe next year say, 'okay, we got rid of the Chevron deference doctrine, we got rid of certain other things. Now let's go after the non-delegation doctrine.'

It's a long way of saying the current U.S. Supreme Court is showing great interest in rethinking decades of rules about the authority of federal regulatory agencies.

TDN: Could this focus of the Supreme Court have any bearing on the way in which the Fifth Circuit rules?

LF: I don't think judges rule in a particular way on a case strategically in order just to get it to go to Supreme Court. I think judges rule on cases based on what they think the law is.

The Fifth Circuit is the most dominated right now of all the circuits by judges who were appointed by the Trump administration with the imprimatur of the Federalist Society, which has long had as its goal to get judges on the appellate federal courts that want to rein in the regulatory state.

The Fifth Circuit is known as the most conservative circuit in terms of what it might mean these days to be a conservative, in the legal sense. Being skeptical of giving broad discretionary authority to make rules to agencies as opposed to congress is one of the aim of being a legal conservative.

As I've told you in previous conversations, there were clearly lawyers strategizing by the opponents of HISA about what states and therefore what federal circuits they filed their challenges in.

They filed them in parts of the country that go to circuit courts that they considered tilting conservative. They didn't file them in areas of the country like New York or Chicago where they think the circuit courts are not considered to be tilted conservative.

TDN: What are the implications from the pending Fifth Circuit ruling for the other HISA-related suits? 

LF: Well, neither the Sixth Circuit ruling nor the Fifth Circuit ruling would be binding precedent on the eighth circuit. They're just persuasive views.

If you're the eighth circuit and you've got two other circuits who agree on the constitutionality of the statute, then reading the tea leaves, that makes it more likely the eighth circuit would also agree.

If you're the eighth circuit and you've got two other federal circuits that have completely different views, you might just kind of sit on the case for a while and wait to see if the Supreme Court takes up the matter and let the Supreme Court decide on its constitutionality.

TDN: Which gets back to your earlier point—a lot rests on this Fifth Circuit ruling.

LF: Yes. Whether the Fifth Circuit will rule the same as the Sixth or differently from the Sixth is basically everything. What happens next is going to rest completely on that.

TDN: Do you see the pending Fifth Circuit ruling having any bearing on the relative success or failure of the proposed federal legislation to repeal HISA and replace it with a voluntary interstate compact to govern the nation's Thoroughbred, Standardbred, and Quarter Horse racing?

LF: That's an interesting question. Interesting, because right now we basically don't have a functioning congress. Who knows how long it will be before we have a functioning congress.

Right now, no federal legislation is going anywhere. But I guess my personal view is that there won't be any strong majority push in congress to come up with something different unless the U.S. Supreme Court says HISA is unconstitutional.

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Vets: HISA Puts Them at ‘Greater Risk than Other Covered Persons’

The North American Association of Racetrack Veterinarians (NAARV) is arguing for the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit to overturn the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) on constitutional grounds because the law allegedly “places the racetrack veterinarians at a greater risk than other covered persons” from a due process standpoint.

Chief among the assertions made by the NAARV in a 51-page “friend of the court” brief filed July 14 are that “initial findings of wrongdoing by a member of NAARV, pursuant to HISA, result in a report to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and, therefore, a federal violation. A federal violation would inevitably result in the loss of not only the NAARV member's track license, but also the loss of the member's professional license to practice veterinarian medicine.”

In addition, the NAARV alleged that HISA creates a “financial barrier to due process review.”

That's because, according to the NAARV's filing, the ultimate authority, the FTC, isn't obligated to accept any covered person's request for review of a HISA ruling against them.

And if such a request for review is denied, that covered person's only right to appeal is to bring the matter all the way to a United States Court of Appeals, the NAARV stated. There are only 12 such courts in the country, divided regionally.

“Logistically, this is more challenging,” the NAARV filing stated. “Take, for example, a covered person who has an alleged violation in Texas. He or she must now pursue an appeal before the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans, Louisiana.

“A person who has allegedly committed a medication violation in Puerto Rico, if he or she decide to appeal, must pursue that appeal before the First U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston,” the brief continued.

Beyond potential travel burdens, the NAARV pointed out, bringing any legal action to that level of the federal court system isn't cheap.

“The estimated legal cost for a trip to the U.S. Court of Appeals is in excess of $25,000,” the NAARV stated.

“It creates a cost or premium for substantive due process rights that is unobtainable for most NAARV members and thus, results in a denial of their due process rights,” the NAARV stated.

At a different point in the filing, the NAARV explained that veterinarians accused of wrongdoing would no longer be “in a position to 'take the deal' on a minimum violation but instead forced to defend their position to maintain their license and their livelihood.”

The NAARV continued: “Prior to the implementation of HISA, NAARV members were able to negotiate a state violation without necessarily risking their general veterinary license. Under HISA, they are forced to do so in a system [that] deprives them of both substantive and procedural due process.”

The NAARV's assertions were made in support of the appeal led by the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (NHBPA) and 12 of its affiliates.

The defendants in the underlying case, which has lingered in the federal court system for 28 months, are personnel from the FTC and the HISA Authority.

The HISA Authority and FTC have an Aug. 4 deadline to file their own briefs with the Fifth Circuit Court.

Oral arguments in the case are tentatively scheduled for the first week in October.

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Texas Judge Says No to ADMC Injunction

The Texas judge handling the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (NHBPA) constitutionality lawsuit that is trying to halt the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) on Wednesday refused to grant an injunction that would delay the May 22 implementation of the Anti-Doping and Medication Control (ADMC) program.

In issuing his order, United States District Court Judge James Wesley Hendrix of the Northern District of Texas (Lubbock Division) pointed out that it is the second time in two weeks that he has informed the plaintiffs in a court order that they have not established a likelihood of success on the merits of their case.

The judge also stated in the May 17 order that the horsemen “misunderstand” the legal standards that apply to the granting of an injunction in this particular instance.

“The Court denies the motion for an injunction pending appeal,” Hendrix wrote. “As detailed in its 55-page Memorandum Opinion and Order [issued May 4], the plaintiffs have not established a likelihood of success on the merits. And even if their proposed standard applied, they have not made a substantial case on the merits given the congressional amendment in response to the Fifth Circuit's opinion…

“Because the plaintiffs have not established a right to an injunction pending appeal under either the correct standard or their preferred standard, the Court denies the motion,” Hendrix wrote.

“The plaintiffs misunderstand the correct standard for a district court considering a motion for injunction pending appeal,” Hendrix continued, adding at a later point, “The 'substantial case on the merits' standard does not apply to injunctions pending appeal.”

The planned appeal to the Fifth Circuit is the latest wrinkle in a lawsuit that has lingered in the courts for over two years.

On Mar. 15, 2021, the NHBPA and 12 of its affiliates sued personnel from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the HISA Authority, seeking to keep HISA from being implemented. Judge Hendrix dismissed that suit on Mar. 31, 2022.

The NHBPA plaintiffs appealed, leading to a Fifth Circuit Court reversal on Nov. 18, 2022 that remanded the case back to Hendrix's court. In the interim, an amended version of HISA got signed into law on Dec. 29, 2022. That fix was designed to make HISA compliant with the constitutional defects the Fifth Circuit had identified.

On May 4, 2023, Hendrix validated the newer version of HISA as constitutional. One day later, the NHBPA informed him it is planning another appeal back to the Fifth Circuit, and it wanted the ADMC's rollout stopped while that process played out.

On May 8, Hendrix wrote that, “The Court previously denied injunctive relief, but the plaintiffs again request an injunction, arguing that they will be injured by the ADMC rule during the pendency of an expected appeal.”

Nine days later, on May 17, Hendrix handed down his decision denying that motion, noting that “the Court is not persuaded by these passing references to [cases that the NHBPA cited as precedents], especially when the plaintiffs have not identified any case in which a district court granted an injunction pending appeal after denying a motion for preliminary injunction (much less following a consolidated bench trial).”

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