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Stories to Watch in 2021

It’s time to turn the page from what was a horrendous year. Thank goodness. The year 2021 is upon us and, for horse racing, it figures to be an important and eventful 12 months. These are the stories we will be talking about and writing about in 2021:

Will Handle Be On The Rise?

Perhaps the most positive story to come out of 2020 has been the handle figures. With the pandemic causing a sizeable reduction when it comes to the amount of races that were run, betting figured to have declined steeply this year. Instead, entering December, it was off just 1.48% for the year. The number of total races run was down by 24.52%.

This could mean that handle will show a significant bump in 2021. The theory is that racing picked up some new customers during the months where it was the only sporting event going and that is why the handle numbers for 2020 didn’t fall off a cliff. With what should be a fairly normal racing schedule in 2021 and with racing perhaps having grown its customer base, this could be a year where the sport takes a needed step forward.

Then again, the 2020 figures could be nothing more than a matter of the pie being sliced differently. Was this simply a case of the same people betting virtually the same amount of money, but having fewer overall races to wager on?

It’s anyone’s guess, but there should be a concrete answer to that question in 2021.

What Will Be The Impact Of The New Lasix Rules?

Starting Jan. 1, Lasix will not be permitted in most stakes races at several of the sport’s top tracks. The ban will include all three Triple Crown races and most of the prep races for the GI Kentucky Derby. This comes after the same tracks banned Lasix in 2-year-old races this year.

The 2-year-old ban didn’t have much of an impact as trainers adjusted and learned to do without the anti-bleeding medication. There didn’t seem to be any major incidents. Most likely, the story will be much the same when it comes to the 2021 stakes races as the sport discovers it can get by just fine without Lasix.

What’s Next When It Comes To The Doping Indictments?

Since the bombshell story broke in March that Jorge Navarro, Jason Servis and 25 others had been indicted for their alleged involvement in the doping of horses, there haven’t been many additional developments. That should change in 2021.

By year’s end, it’s likely that the case will reach a conclusion, with the possibility that both trainers enter into a plea deal. If that happens, both could be sentenced some time in 2021.

We should also know whether or not there will be additional indictments. It appears that some of the individuals who were indicted could be talking, perhaps naming more names. We’ll find out in 2021.

What Will We Learn About The Horseracing Integrity And Safety Act?

Signed into law by President Trump Sunday, the Horseracing Safety and Integrity Act must go into effect by July 1, 2022. But it will still be an important story to follow in the year ahead. This should be the year where many questions begin to get answered, among them how much will it cost and how will it be paid for? Horseplayers are dreading the thought of having to pay for this through a higher takeout and owners don’t want to have to pay some sort of fee every time they start a horse, Both, unfortunately, are possibilities.

This will also be the year when the members of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority Board will be named.

Will Arlington Park Survive?

Churchill Downs, the owners of Arlington Park, has only committed to one more year of racing, which means 2021 could be it for one of the sport’s most beautiful tracks. There should be a place in the sport for a showcase track in a huge metropolitan area, but it doesn’t appear that there are many options on the horizon that would save Arlington. Let’s hope that there will be a reprieve for Arlington.

How Good Is Charlatan?

It’s not too early to jump on the Charlatan (Speightstown) bandwagon. Limited to just three races before being sidelined by an ankle injury, he looked like a horse with unlimited potential after crossing the wire first in the GI Arkansas Derby, a race he eventually lost due to a medication violation. He looks even better after his blowout win over a stellar field in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. Saturday at Santa Anita. The early favorite for 2021 Horse of the Year, Charlatan could have the kind of year that Ghostzapper had in 2004. Don’t expect a busy campaign, but he could dominate every time he shows up while posting ridiculously fast numbers.

What Will Be The Effect Of New Jersey’s Whip Ban?

Whip reform has been a slow process, but it will take a huge leap forward in 2021 when the whip will be banned in New Jersey racing. The only exception will be situations where it is needed for safety reasons. All eyes will be on Monmouth Park when it opens in the spring with an experiment that could change the debate when it comes to the future of the whip in racing. What happens in New Jersey could influence what direction California will take.

When Will Fans Be Allowed Back In The Stands?

Fans weren’t allowed to attend the Triple Crown races in 2020 or the Breeders’ Cup. The stands were empty at Saratoga and at Del Mar. That won’t change Jan. 1, but it appears likely that, with the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, there will be a return to normalcy in 2021. That may not happen in time for the Kentucky Derby, but could it happen for, say, opening day of Saratoga? Nothing would be more welcome.

Can Godolphin Win Its First Kentucky Derby?

There aren’t many important races left in the world that Sheikh Mohammed has not won, but a victory in the Kentucky Derby has eluded one of the sport’s most powerful stables. Godolphin has sent out 10 starters in the Derby without a winner. Its best showing was a fourth-place finish by Frosted (Tapit) in 2015.

That very well could change in 2021. Essential Quality (Tapit), the GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who will soon be named 2019’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male, is a horse without any apparent flaws. He has the ability, the right breeding and the right trainer in Brad Cox. He will have to deal with whatever Bob Baffert brings to Churchill Downs, but Essential Quality very well could be the one to get Godolphin into the Derby winner’s circle.

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Morrison: Tribute To A War Horse And A Wake-Up Call

In his first four years of racing, New York-bred Hit It Once More was a multiple stakes winner of more than $550,000. Over the last two seasons, however, the 7-year-old son of Hard Spun was winless in 16 starts, with just a second-place finish to show as he steadily dropped down the class ladder, eventually winding up in state-bred claiming competition carrying a $25,000 tag.

On Dec. 19, Hit It Once More ran his last race, his 49th, suffering a catastrophic injury in deep stretch under jockey Luis Rodriguez Castro. The Equibase chart described the incident as follows: “HIT IT ONCE MORE … got put to coaxing at the three-eighths, went six to seven wide into upper stretch, was under light handling when bobbling heavily just outside the sixteenth pole, hobbled injured through to the finish the rider paused, then continued to gallop out a sixteenth past the wire before losing the rider then jogged off to the midway point on the clubhouse turn in distress before being apprehended by the outrider and was subsequently vanned off.”

Hit It Once More was later euthanized, the 21st horse to die from a racing injury this year at New York Racing Association tracks.

Jennifer Morrison, writing for the Canadian Thoroughbred, juxtaposed the death of Hit It Once More against the “tremendous gains (that) have been made in horse welfare awareness,” adding that “it is certain that the majority of horsepeople have deep love and respect for the racehorse.”

Morrison wrote that the FBI probe and federal indictments of trainers, veterinarians and others for doping violations earlier this year “have been a huge wake-up call to the industry that has struggled with public perception.”

Nevertheless, she wrote, “sad and avoidable incidents continue.

“It begins with owners and trainers,” Morrison wrote, “but racetracks and race offices and veterinarians and jockeys must wake up.”

View From the Eighth Pole: Truth Or Consequences

I've been observing the “lads” at Coolmore Stud in Ireland and at their Kentucky farm, Ashford, for more than 30 years. They have revolutionized the bloodstock world, maximized stallion revenue, and elevated customer service and marketing.

Through early identification and acquisition of promising stud prospects, embracing large books for their stallions (including no small number of their own mares), and shuttling them to Australia or South America for dual hemisphere breeding seasons, Coolmore and Ashford can “get out” financially on many of these horses before their first foals hit the racetrack.

In a business where nine out of 10 new stallions will fail to sustain or increase their initial value, it's highly advantageous for a stud farm to break even or show a modest profit before the marketplace has a chance to see whether or not a horse's offspring can run.

Yet the lads aren't perfect. No one is.

I was reminded of that when I saw their recent advertisement for first-year stallion Maximum Security. It was, without a doubt, the most unconventional stallion ad I've ever seen.

Under the banner, “MAXIMUM SECURITY – the facts,” the ad began normally enough, citing races won, achievements, and awards.

Then it gets weird. Bullet point No. 12 in the ad states: “NEVER TESTED POSITIVE for an illegal or prohibited substance during his career despite comprehensive testing at the world's best laboratories.”

That statement is true (though I might disagree that post-race testing for all of his races was done at “the world's best laboratories.”). But let's remember how many times cheating cyclist Lance Armstrong said he'd never failed a drug test: “Twenty-plus-year career, 500 drug controls worldwide, in and out of competition. Never a failed test. I rest my case,” he said in May 2011, a little more than a year before he was stripped of his seven Tour de France titles because of doping.

But wait, there's more.

In addition to a complimentary quote from Bob Baffert, who trained Maximum Security for the second half of his 4-year-old campaign in 2020, there is this closing argument: “MAXIMUM SECURITY is a bona fine CHAMPION that raced on water, hay, oats & fresh air!”

Everyone knows what this is about.

Less than three months after the announcement that Coolmore had purchased a significant share in the racing and breeding interests of Maximum Security – who was voted an Eclipse Award winner as outstanding 3-year-old male of 2019 – the colt's trainer, Jason Servis was among those rounded up and arrested by the FBI as part of a broad multi-year investigation into doping of racehorses in the United States.

The indictment states that Servis and co-conspirators “concealed the administration of PEDs from federal and state government agencies, racing officials, and the betting public by, among other things, concealing and covertly transporting PEDs between barns where Servis' racehorses were stabled, falsifying veterinary bills to conceal the administration of SGF-1000, and using fake prescriptions.”

Even worse, there were specific references to Maximum Security in the March charging document and the superseding indictment filed Nov. 5.

“Jason Servis, the defendant, was the trainer for a particularly successful racehorse, 'Maximum Security,' that briefly placed first at the Kentucky Derby on May 4, 2019, before racing officials disqualified the horse for interference,” the superseding indictment states.

“Following the Kentucky Derby,” it continues, “Maximum Security continued to compete in high-profile races, including in Oceanport, New Jersey. Servis worked with (veterinarians) Kristian Rhein and Alexander Chan, the defendants, among others, to procure and administer adulterated and misbranded PEDs, including the adulterated and misbranded PED SGF-1000 and invalidly administered Clenbuterol, for the purpose of doping several racehorses under Servis' control, including Maximum Security.”

The FBI intercepted a March 5, 2019, phone call between Servis and co-defendant Jorge Navarro in which Servis is heard recommending SGF-1000 to Navarro, adding, “I've been using it on everything almost.” Navarro allegedly admitted also giving SGF-1000 to some of his horses, then ended the call, saying: “I don't want to talk about this shit on the phone, OK.”

The indictment states that SGF-1000 is a “customized PED purportedly containing 'growth factors,' including fibroblast growth factor and heptocyte growth factor, which are intended to promote tissue repair and increase a racehorse's stamina and endurance beyond its natural capability.”

So it appears, based on the indictment, that Maximum Security was getting a little something more than the “water, hay, oats, and fresh air” claim in the ad.

No one is suggesting original owners Gary and Mary West or the Coolmore partners who bought into the horse had any knowledge of what is documented in the indictment.

The Maximum Security ad also includes an excerpt from a story in the Thoroughbred Daily News stating Servis may have been buying “some fake PEDs” from Chan and Rhein, based on comments from prosecutors at a pre-trial hearing.

The arrest of Servis came just over a week after Maximum Security had won the inaugural running of the $20-million Saudi Cup. The Saudis have yet to pay the purse money, pending the outcome of what they said is their own investigation into Servis. More likely, they're waiting to see what happens in court.

That could take a while. There is another pre-trial conference scheduled on May 14, 2021.

Maximum Security did win two of his four post-Servis starts while trained by Baffert, including the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar. He was retired following a fifth-place performance in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland, finishing behind two Baffert barnmates – winner Authentic and runner-up Improbable – Global Campaign, and Tacitus. He beat race favorite Tiz the Law.

I'm not going to knock Maximum Security, who could turn out to be a great success at stud. As the late Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham is often quoted as saying, “Never say anything bad about a horse until he's been dead at least 10 years.”

But we know from other sports that suspected cheating has consequences. Barry Bonds, Major League Baseball's all-time leading home run hitter and single-season record holder, has been shut out of the Baseball Hall of Fame. So, too, have Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire, all with Hall of Fame qualifications but accused of using steroids. None failed a drug test.

Servis (and by way of extension Maximum Security) is innocent until proven guilty, but the charges against him and the others named in the case are serious. If Servis is found guilty, no amount of spin is going to chase the dark clouds away from his most accomplished horse.

That's my view from the eighth pole.

The post View From the Eighth Pole: Truth Or Consequences appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Brendan Walsh Joins Writers’ Room 2020 Wrap-Up Show

It’s been an eventful year to say the least, and Wednesday morning, the crew of the TDN Writers’ Room presented by Keeneland wrapped up the biggest stories of 2020 and looked forward to the promise of a new year with an assist from trainer Brendan Walsh. Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week for the second time, Walsh talked about the highly-anticipated return of barn star Maxfield (Street Sense), what his hopes are for the implementation of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act and trainees he’s excited about sending out in 2021.

Maxfield, a blowout victor of the 2019 GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, missed the rest of his 2-year-old season with an ankle injury and, after a victory in the GIII Matt Winn S. in his sophomore debut, had to be taken off the GI Kentucky Derby trail soon after with a condylar fracture. Returning to training in late September, he’s set to run for just the fourth time in Saturday’s Tenacious S. at Fair Grounds.

Asked about how he manages the mental toll of conditioning the talented but oft-injured Maxfield, Walsh said, “It’s been disappointing and frustrating each time [he’s gotten hurt], but the saving grace of it all is the fact that the horse could come back from when he’s gotten inured. There was always something in the future. As far as fractures go, it was non-displaced and a pretty easy fix. I’ve had lots of horses with fractures like this and the recovery rate is actually very high for them. So yeah, it was disappointing, especially this year, because it meant missing a potential chance for the Derby, but we always knew that eventually we were going to get another crack at it late in the game.”

The conversation turned to the expected passage of the HISA in 2021 and how important it would be to establish the kind of centralized regulatory body that the Irish-born Walsh dealt with in the British Horseracing Authority.

“I think we’ve made big, big leaps forward this year,” he said. “Last time I was on the show, we touched on this and I wasn’t totally confident about it happening. But it looks now like there’s a very good chance it will happen. I think it’s highly essential that it happens for racing here. We’ve made a lot of advances in various states with medication policies, etc. but it’s very important to have a uniform policy all over the country. It’s going to make it easier on everybody because people will have a clearer picture on medications we are and aren’t allowed to use. That’s what we’d all like to have.”

Elsewhere on the show, the writers assessed where the industry stands with its most pressing issues such as the FBI indictments, HISA, equine safety and handle trends and how they expect and want those stories to develop in 2021. In the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, they talked about the demise of greyhound racing and how horse racing’s powers that be may be finally acting just in time to save their industry. Then they discussed what horses they’re most looking forward to seeing next year and relived the best of host Joe Bianca’s 2020 rants. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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